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Just got real: UCF vs. LSU, Cotton Bowl Prediction

Cotton Bowl

Projection: LSU vs. UCF

The matchup everyone has been waiting for -- sort of. Remember when UCF fans wanted Alabama several years ago during the Knights' unbeaten run to a faux national championship after getting Joe Burrow and LSU instead? That hungry fanbase could get its chance in the Cotton Bowl if UCF wins the American Athletic and finishes as the Group of Five's highest-rated team and LSU goes to New Orleans (Sugar). Meanwhile, Alabama will likely have mass opt-out casualties outside of the playoff with a roster that is loaded with early-round projected picks.

Sugar Bowl

Projection: TCU vs. Alabama

Can TCU head into the Big 12 Championship Game unbeaten and a loss takes the Horned Frogs out of the final four? It's possible. TCU's win over Texas on Saturday night pushed the nation's current fourth-ranked team closer to the ultimate prize, but it's going to likely taken an unbeaten record to get there if Georgia, Tennessee and the winner of Michigan-Ohio State assume the other three spots in the final four. The Sugar Bowl gets the highest-ranked SEC team once the playoff set. In this scenario, Alabama with two losses would be ranked higher than LSU.


Source: https://247sports.com/LongFormArtic...U-stays-unbeaten-No-6-Oregon-falls-197070828/

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If LSU plays Georgia close and Auburn puts up a fight against uat in the Iron Bowl, LSU *might* be ranked higher than uat after the SEC Title Game. If so, the Sugar Bowl will have to take the home-standing LSU Tigers, leaving a Gus-sabahr matchup in the Cotton.

Lots of ifs and football to be played before then, but I will keep my fingers crossed.

U-Can?

Pour one out for U-Can't, UConn's going bowling​

On July 20, 1969, Neil Armstrong took one giant leap for mankind and became the first man to step foot on the moon, and in doing so, he personified the will of the human spirit, offering proof that, indeed, anything is possible.
For the next 53 years, nothing much happened. The Soviet Union, the Berlin Wall and the Big East all collapsed, but hope was often in short supply. There was much suffering.
Then, in 2022, a hero emerged. His name was Jim Mora Jr. Like all mythical figures, he had endured the hero's journey -- the slings and arrows and three years with the Atlanta Falcons. But like a phoenix from the ashes, he emerged on a field in New England and offered the world hope.
On Saturday, we saw the fruits of his labor. UConn beat Liberty 36-33. It was the Huskies' sixth win of the season, making America's worst college football team bowl eligible.
Today, the flags at Bottom 10 headquarters fly at half-staff. Pour one out for U-Can't.
It would be nearly impossible to truly express the futility of the UConn Huskies. After earning the distinction of the worst team to ever play in a BCS bowl game at the end of an 8-5 season in 2010, misery ensued.
There was the Bob Diaco era, which has been edited out of all Connecticut public high school textbooks due to graphic content.
There was Randy Edsall Part II, which was only slightly worse than "Weekend at Bernie's Part II." And by mentioning Randy Edsall in a college football story, UConn now owes him a check for $4.85. That was one heck of a contract.
There was the time UConn tried to make a rivalry trophy happen with UCF, but the Knights just left it to rust in Scott Frost's shed. There was the 2020 season that the school just scrapped altogether. There was the decision to leave the American Athletic Conference because the administration wanted to focus on more important things than football -- like basketball and its stamp collection.
From 2016 through 2021, UConn went 10-50, and half of those wins came against FCS competition.
But on Saturday, Mora exorcised those demons in perfect UConn style. The Huskies weren't actually good. Liberty outgained UConn by 156 yards and had nearly twice as many first downs. The Huskies threw for just 110 yards in the game, but Zion Turner's 30-yard pass to Kevens Clercius for a touchdown with 5:43 left to play gave the Huskies a lead, and the defense made two huge fourth-down stops in the fourth quarter to secure the win.
And now UConn is going bowling.
play
0:58

UConn fans storm field after becoming bowl-eligible​

UConn clinches its first bowl appearance since 2015 and the fans storm the field in celebration.
It is, perhaps, fitting that UConn's redemption arc reached its climax on the same day Vanderbilt toppled Kentucky for its first SEC win since 2019 -- and first road SEC win since October 2018. The Commodores ran for 264 yards -- the most in an SEC road game, according to ESPN Stats & Information research, since at least 2004 -- and held Will Levis to just 109 yards passing.
All of this comes in the same season in which Kansas rewrote its own miserable narrative, and Syracuse, Duke and Illinois all secured bowl bids, too. The 2022 season has been the most inspiring installment of "Revenge of the Nerds" since "Revenge of the Nerds III" and, depending on the bowl destination for UConn, could certainly be a fitting re-creation of "Revenge of the Nerds II: Nerds in Paradise."
So, congratulations, UConn. America has stopped laughing and started cheering. It's been a long ride, but now you can cancel your plans to spend December hanging out in the parking lot of the Mohegan Sun and telling strangers that you know Geno Auriemma, and pack your bags for a bowl game.
Now, go make some crank calls to people at UMass. You've earned it.

GAME 10: UCF @ Tulane, Sim results and Predictions

11/10/2022 Tulane Edition:


Let's recap the Memphis game...


A much-needed road win. 35-28. The sim average won the guessing-game this week with 42-25...within one score on offense for both teams.

I don't know what to make of Tulane, the last few years I always felt they were a team that could get really good with the right combination of theme, aesthetic, location and academics. I kept thinking "they'll be good this year"...only to whiff. Peers made fun of me. NOW, go figure. I didn't say this is "the year" Tulane gets good in 2022, and what happens? They get good.

So. Tulane.


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Tulane Fun-Facts:

Not typically known for being good at football.

Was a founding member of the SEC. Yep. They left to form the Southern Ivy League/Magnolia Conference which merged into Conference USA in 1995. Some of that early prestige has more weight than you think and they were a dark-horse for Big 12 consideration during the first flirtations in 2016 (Google it). They could be playing themselves into some considerations again. Good sports, good academics, New Orleans...

Tulane's nickname was adopted during the 1920 season, after a song titled "The Rolling Green Wave" was published in the Tulane Hullabaloo in 1920. From 1893 to 1919 the athletic teams of Tulane were officially known as "The Olive and Blue," for the official school colors.

Yulman Stadium is the on-campus venue for football at Tulane University in New Orleans, Louisiana. It currently has a capacity of 30,000 spectators, with 4,500 premium seats in two fan clubs – the Westfeldt Terrace and the Jill H. and Avram A. Glazer Family Club.[2] The stadium's first game and grand opening was the 2014 season's home opener against its former Southern Conference and Southeastern Conference foe Georgia Tech on September 6, 2014.


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Players to watch for Tulane:

#22 Tyjae Spears - RB, 5'11", 195 pounds, JR. Averaging 83 yards a game, 5.6 yards a carry.

#7 Michael Pratt - QB, 6'3', 220 Pounds, JR. 142 for 213. Perfect 2/3rds(66.67%) of passes are caught.

#10 Shae Wyatt - WR, 6'1", 190 Pounds, SR. Averaging 43 yards a game.

Overall:
Points per game
UCF 35.7 Tulane 32.9

Yards per game
UCF 501.0 Tulane 418.7

Opp points per game
UCF 18.8 Tulane 16.9

RECENT common-opponent score of note:

11/22:

Tulane 38
Memphis 28


***Onto the REAL Beef*** ( or Jerk Chicken over spicy rice and lime-and-pepper brocolli)

Weather forecast at 3:30PM Eastern kickoff:
Sunset: 5:05pm (this early sunset stuff is getting old...)
Temp: 62F
Chance of rain: 0% at kickoff, but rain early morning (Really? Zero?...Zero...again...)


TV: ESPN2


I ran 12 CPU simulations for a good math spread. I ran all 12 with clear weather. I also used Mickey Keene at QB.

Addendum: Will run 6 more with JRP.


Average of 12 simulation results:

UCF 38
Tulane 30

Sim Avg Spread:
UCF -8 (Vegas: Tulane -1.5 2:12PM 11/10/22)

JRP as QB:

UCF 42
Tulane 34

"Heart" Prediction:

UCF 32
Tulane 30

"Heart" spread:

CENTRAL FLORIDA: -2 (Vegas be damned...barely)

My friend's son Julian's prediction:

UCF 24
Tulane 20

Julian's line of doom: UCF -4 (He's not old enough for Vegas, sorry)

GUEST Prediction:

Andre's pick

UCF 41
Tulane 38







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OT: Haven't been posting here the past several days because my cat got hit by a car. Please help in any way you can.

My cat, Poofy, was hit by a car recently and had his jaw broken in two places while sustaining several other injuries. The doctors believe that he will live, but I have been off the board and tending to him several times a day. I basically have to hand feed him and it has been a rough process.

I don't like being a begger, but any help you can give will be greatly appreciated and will put both us in your debt.

I won't be able to post here that much in the coming days as much of my time is devoted to him.

Fundraiser link.

What is the best G5 HC job? Where does usf rank?

I think it was well established UCF and Houston were probably considered the "best" G5 jobs with Cincinnati probably next in line.

At one point time, usf would have been up there too.

That being said, with those other programs headed to the Big 12, could usf be the "best" job in terms of potential, access to talent, etc.?

If usf can show some sort of turnaround, they have more fanbase potential than FAU.

Boise? It seems they're losing their luster. It was honestly nothing short of amazing they were so consistent for so long.

Conference Title question

Let me begin saying I would hope we can win out but crazier things have happened so i was curious if we clinch a spot with a win vs Navy....I know someone in here can help answer this as I'm too lazy to look it up haha.

If we win 1 of the next 2 games we are automatically in the conference title game right since Cincy and Tulane play one another (one will have 2 loses) and we beat both and we also beat SMU who has 2 losses/Houston has a worse overall record?

I am not sure what the tie breaker would be if we were to lose one more and the AAC has 1 team with one loss (if Tulane or Cincy win out) and 3 teams with 2 losses in conference are tied for 2nd (whoever loses Cincy/Tulane, Houston, and UCF)

Also another possible scenario is Tulane loses to SMU next week but beats Cincy.....what would be the tie breaker if we lost and we have 5 teams with 2 conference loses (SMU, UH, UCF, UC, Tulane)?
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