Below, I take the National rankings for UCF and Tulane on a number of statistical categories to get an idea of how the teams stack up. I compare each category to the relevant opposite statistic (e.g. Run Offense per game vs. Run Defense per game) and assign a score based on the difference. So a team that is #5 in run offense will be +10 if the comparator is #15 on run defense.
OVERALL “BY THE NUMBERS” SUMMARY (Specific Breakdowns Follow):
Overall, UCF has sight edge in statistics not including turnovers and penalties. UCF has decently notable edge in running game matchup (rankings show UCF at +53 (see below for more detail)), but Tulane has the edge in passing game (Tulane is +50). Total offense vs. total defense per game gives UCF a +11 positioning.
When you factor in turnovers, you see Tulane does much better (+112). This is almost entirely because Tulane is the 19th best at protecting ball on O and our D is 110th worst…so that’s a 91 difference.
Tulane is +57 over us in penalty department.
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RUN GAME MATCHUP (Notable Edge to UCF; +53):
UCF is #8 nationally in rushing yards per game. Tulane has 41st ranked run D. (UCF +33)
Tulane is #47 in rushing yards per game. UCF has 27th ranked run D. (UCF +20)
PASSING GAME MATCHUP (Notable Edge to Tulane; +50):
UCF is #43 nationally in passing yards per game. Tulane has 17th best passing defense. (Tulane +26)
Tulane is #66 nationally in passing yards per game. UCF has the 90th ranked passing defense. (Tulane +24)
TOTAL O v. TOTAL D (slight edge to UCF; +11):
UCF is #7 in total offense per game. Tulane has 16th best total defense in the nation. (UCF +9)
Tulane is #48 in total offense per game. UCF has 46th ranked total defense in the nation. (UCF +2)
TURNOVER BATTLE (Notable Edge to Tulane):
UCF is 84th in offensive turnovers per game (meaning they are 84th worst at protecting ball). Tulane’s D is ranked 63rd in forced turnovers per game.
Tulane is 19th in offensive turnovers per game (meaning they are 19th best at protecting the ball). UCF’s D is ranked 110th (!) in forced turnovers per game.
PENALTIES/DISCIPLINE (Edge to Tulane):
UCF is 59th worst in offensive penalty yards per game.
Tulane is the 4th best team in offensive penalty yards per game.
UCF has 29th least amount of defensive penalty yards per game (surprisingly solid).
Tulane has 27th least amount of defensive penalty yards per game (solid).
MISC SPECIAL TEAMS (Wash):
Both teams have sub-100 rankings in avg yards per punt.
UCF/Tulane are 68/69th in avg yards per kick return respectively (both at 20.1 yards a return).
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Conclusion: statistically, we hold the slight edge. But they are just so much more disciplined and opportunistic than us. And that’s been the story for us all year. We’ve been hurt by bad turnovers on O, lack of forcing them on D, and inopportune penalties. It will be imperative that we win the TO battle, or keep it neutral, and capitalize on chances to score. We must also remain disciplined and can’t have them keeping drives alive due to boneheaded penalties.
My belief is that we need to be at least +1 in turnovers to win this game. It will be incredibly tough to win without that break on the road.
If anyone wants to consider opponents rankings to put the above rankings into perspective feel free to add to this. According to Power rankings guru UCF’s is 67 and Tulane’s is 84th (as of Nov. 6). Sagarin has ours at 68th and Tulane’s at 96th. So by that metric our statistical advantage is likely slightly better than I accounted. Perhaps being on the road neutralizes that.