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UCF Fast & Slow - Memphis Tigers Edition

Keene Vs. JRP: I am just going to get this out of the way early because i know that is what everyone is hung up on. You know where i sit on this, i love both guys and i think we can win with both guys and they have both proven that last year and this year. I was interested to see how Keene would look starting and playing an entire game and we got that chance with Memphis. The game went similar to a Keene type game last year for the first few quarters. He lacks arm strength, those outside throws i think are going to be a pick 6 every time, there was one that was super close he shouldn't have thrown on the right side later in the game. The int was not a good throw/read. he missed a wide open Baker on that big 3rd and 20 that he had time for and a clean pocket to step up into. He also chose not to run several times where we really needed him to and when he did run it wasnt effective. He didnt sell out on that third down run that lead to the late punt but with all that bad stuff said he was a killer in the 4th quarter. All three TD throws were incredible throws. He seemed to settle down and played amazing down the stretch. He absolutely made plays/throws that JRP would likely not have been made but he also left plays out on the field that JRP would have made. My hope is that this game at least gets most people/fans on the same page that their isnt a massive difference between the two. In my perfect world i would love to see them both play depending on the situation but i know that is not something that is easy for a coach or either QB to do. I wish we could just mush them together and create one QB, LOL. Truthfully i am fine starting either guy at Tulane but if they are both healthy and whoever starts is shitting the bed Gus should not hesitate to make a change.

UCF Fast:
  • Harvey: Outside of the redzone touch down throws Harvey was pretty much the entire offense tonight. I love his vision and balance, really solid back. Had a great game. We had to be able to run the ball to help Keene and Harvey did that.

  • Keene: Forgettable early game for him but in the 4th he turned on the arm, made some amazing throws, solid overall game for Keene, lead the team to a win.

  • Offensive Line: You could tell from the first series we were pushing back the defensive line pretty good, ran on them for 200+, Keene also had a nice pocket most of the night. Offensive line really settling in and playing solid as of late.

  • Hudson: Again Hudson converts when thrown the ball, 6 of 7 tonight and the one he didnt get was really a throw away. No drops, attacks the ball, two TD catches solid game.

  • Holler: Just for that 1st down conversion. That was a huge play to help ice the game and he got the 10 yards all by himself and sold out for it at the end. Love that play.

  • Lee Hunter: Love how he calmed down those guys after a big INT. That could have gotten out of hand and we just got the turnover. Hunter was smart to pull those guys back and calm the situation.

  • Divaad Newt Wilson: I debated this one because he had one of the most boneheaded PI calls i have ever seen. NO idea what the hell he was doing on that play and he has been late to the ball when it is in the air all season BUT he had one of the plays of the game on that missed INT by the UCF guy (missed his number) and it was about to be caught by the Memphis WR on like the 10 yard line and Newt slapped it away. That was super heady play, sold out to do it and saved his team mate because that should have bene a pick and had Newt not made that play they would have been 1st and goal from the 10, complete game changer. He also got a pick for himself as well.

  • Johnson: Lead the team in tackles seemed to constantly be around the ball, stepped up with JJB went down.
UCF Slow:
  • Gus Being Gus: Gus must have been feelin saucy tonight because he was doing all types of ultra Gus things. It feels sometimes to me like Gus is trying to make the game more interesting to watch for a non fan. Some fat ass on the coach that could care less who wins that is watching the game for entertainment Gus is showing out for that guy. There were several examples tonight, some that jump out was late in the game we are trying to salt it away with some safe plays and Gus runs a reverse. The under center (which we never do) sweep handoff to ROK goes for a loss of 10. That play seemed to come out of left field and then we run Bowser on 2nd and 20 for 1 yard. Why we dont have JRich or one of the more explosive guys in on the long yardage plays. Bowser is not built for that situation and if you say he is there to pick up the blitz that goes out the window when you run him for a 1 yard dive. But then the call of day was the 64 yard fg attempt. I have not seen any interviews so i look forward to seeing what he says to explain this but I have watched a lot of football and i cannot come up with a good reason why we attempted that kick. I was livid yelling at the TV to call TO or something. If there was 1 second left then maybe you do it for shits and giggles but even then it is risk to be run back but with 34 seconds left it is suicide. Forget about the run back, just the fact he was almost certainly going to miss it and the other team would have the ball at the 50. Later in the game Gus made the right call punting and pinning them down vs. going for it but this 64 yard fg attempt made zero sense. He has to know that. I feel like after he is screaming "are you not entertained" from Gladiator.

  • ROK Drops: I think he has had a drop every game this year, another bad one tonight. He had a solid game outside of the drop but he has been dropping so many balls that they are starting to stick out when they happen.

  • Announcers: I didn't care for either of them that much but the lady announcers kept messing up the calls and the players and i think called us usf once. My understanding is that she has called several of our games so far this year. She should be better.

  • Pass Rush: We are still struggling to find a consistent pass rush. Memphis threw the ball 39 times and we had no sacks. Not even sure how many pressures. We took some injuries on defense today as well. This defense really needs to find how to get some pressure because i feel like we arent scaring anyone right now. I think offenses think they can pretty much do what they want.

  • #FreeJrich: We ran all over them tonight so it seems petty to bring this up every week but can we not find more plays for this man. He is too damn dynamic to touch the ball one time. That 2nd and 20 run to Bowser up the middle would have been a good example or after Harvey ran for 61 and we kept feeding him, give that man a breather after that type of run, the defense is tired but JRich is fresh,
If there is a team we own more the Memphis then i don't know who. I am not sure what the record is but it feels like we have beat them 20 out of the last 21 times. That fan base must just loathe us. UCF won this game but Memphis did not do themselves any favors. They made some dumb ass plays, helped us a good bit. I dont know much about Tulane, i got to read up on them but if Keene can play like he did in that 4th quarter all game i would think we would have a shot against pretty much anyone but there were times in that first half that it felt eerily similar to some of the blow outs last season on offense. Regardless of who is under center i am super excited for a top 20 match up next weekend in the Big Eazy. That is going to be a fun game and a great time for a lot of UCF fans down there. Go Knights!!!

By the Numbers - A Detailed Breakdown of UCF @ Tulane Matchup Based on Statistical Rankings (National)

Below, I take the National rankings for UCF and Tulane on a number of statistical categories to get an idea of how the teams stack up. I compare each category to the relevant opposite statistic (e.g. Run Offense per game vs. Run Defense per game) and assign a score based on the difference. So a team that is #5 in run offense will be +10 if the comparator is #15 on run defense.


OVERALL “BY THE NUMBERS” SUMMARY (Specific Breakdowns Follow):

Overall, UCF has sight edge in statistics not including turnovers and penalties. UCF has decently notable edge in running game matchup (rankings show UCF at +53 (see below for more detail)), but Tulane has the edge in passing game (Tulane is +50). Total offense vs. total defense per game gives UCF a +11 positioning.

When you factor in turnovers, you see Tulane does much better (+112). This is almost entirely because Tulane is the 19th best at protecting ball on O and our D is 110th worst…so that’s a 91 difference.

Tulane is +57 over us in penalty department.

———————————————————————-

RUN GAME MATCHUP (Notable Edge to UCF; +53):

UCF is #8 nationally in rushing yards per game. Tulane has 41st ranked run D. (UCF +33)

Tulane is #47 in rushing yards per game. UCF has 27th ranked run D. (UCF +20)


PASSING GAME MATCHUP (Notable Edge to Tulane; +50):

UCF is #43 nationally in passing yards per game. Tulane has 17th best passing defense. (Tulane +26)

Tulane is #66 nationally in passing yards per game. UCF has the 90th ranked passing defense. (Tulane +24)


TOTAL O v. TOTAL D (slight edge to UCF; +11):

UCF is #7 in total offense per game. Tulane has 16th best total defense in the nation. (UCF +9)

Tulane is #48 in total offense per game. UCF has 46th ranked total defense in the nation. (UCF +2)


TURNOVER BATTLE (Notable Edge to Tulane):

UCF is 84th in offensive turnovers per game (meaning they are 84th worst at protecting ball). Tulane’s D is ranked 63rd in forced turnovers per game.

Tulane is 19th in offensive turnovers per game (meaning they are 19th best at protecting the ball). UCF’s D is ranked 110th (!) in forced turnovers per game.


PENALTIES/DISCIPLINE (Edge to Tulane):

UCF is 59th worst in offensive penalty yards per game.

Tulane is the 4th best team in offensive penalty yards per game.

UCF has 29th least amount of defensive penalty yards per game (surprisingly solid).

Tulane has 27th least amount of defensive penalty yards per game (solid).


MISC SPECIAL TEAMS (Wash):

Both teams have sub-100 rankings in avg yards per punt.

UCF/Tulane are 68/69th in avg yards per kick return respectively (both at 20.1 yards a return).

———————————————————————

Conclusion: statistically, we hold the slight edge. But they are just so much more disciplined and opportunistic than us. And that’s been the story for us all year. We’ve been hurt by bad turnovers on O, lack of forcing them on D, and inopportune penalties. It will be imperative that we win the TO battle, or keep it neutral, and capitalize on chances to score. We must also remain disciplined and can’t have them keeping drives alive due to boneheaded penalties.

My belief is that we need to be at least +1 in turnovers to win this game. It will be incredibly tough to win without that break on the road.

If anyone wants to consider opponents rankings to put the above rankings into perspective feel free to add to this. According to Power rankings guru UCF’s is 67 and Tulane’s is 84th (as of Nov. 6). Sagarin has ours at 68th and Tulane’s at 96th. So by that metric our statistical advantage is likely slightly better than I accounted. Perhaps being on the road neutralizes that.

Travel in case we have to go back to Tulane for CCG in December

Just planning ahead in case we have to go back to Tulane for the CCG in December. Southwest has a nonstop roundtrip flight that leaves Orlando at 7am and returns at 8:45 that night for $190. The game should be at either noon or 3:30 so it gives you plenty of time to make it and not have to get a hotel. I booked a flight for my wife and I and in case I don't need them we can use them next season for other trips.
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Time to Start Acting like a Power 5 Program

1) Enough is enough with the middle school drama. Roughly half the posts I see on this board now are dedicated to personal beefs and petty arguments. Move that **** to the Water Cooler

2) Leave USF in the past. That program is still living rent free in a lot of your heads for absolutely no reason

3) Let’s get back to talking X’s and O’s. There is simply not enough discussion about pure football on this board as of late. The average person doesn’t have hours to sift through a bunch of nonsense posts. Brandon does a fantastic job with providing valuable content on this board. As the community continues to grow, let’s try to act like a Power 5 program on here

#ChargeOn

Week 11 Rankings

Coaches Poll Week 11
#1 Georgia
#2 Ohio State
#3 Michigan
#4 TCU
#5 Tennessee
#6 Oregon
#7 USC
#8 LSU
#9 Ole Miss
#10 UCLA
#11 Alabama
#12 Clemson
#13 Utah
#14 North Carolina
#15 Penn State
#16 NC State
#17 Tulane
#18 Texas
#19 Liberty
#20 Illinois
#21 UCF
#22 Kansas State
#23 Washington
#24 Kentucky
#25 Notre Dame​

Others receiving votes:
Coastal Carolina 77; Cincinnati 70; Wake Forest 53; Oklahoma State 53; Baylor 46; Florida State 22; Syracuse 20; Kansas 12; Mississippi State 11; Troy 10; Louisville 9; Texas-San Antonio 6; Pittsburgh 4; Minnesota 4; South Carolina 3; Oregon State 3; Maryland 3; Boise State 1.

Injuries

JJB: Looked like a concussion....so may not play next week?

Wilson: Similar....as his head/neck hit that TE he tried to tackle...could miss next week.

Bullard: Who was coming off a previous injury, was wearing a thick knee brace in 4th Q...Radio Team said it didn't look good so I woukd be shocked to see him play next week or maybe again this year.

Anyone else?

I know Drop went out but he came back in.
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