An insane turnout represents a 250% increase over the same time period last presidential election.
90 million votes have been cast so far.
- Thread starter fried-chicken
- Start date
Almost as if people are tired of being an international embarrassment.
I voted for a D for POTUS for the first time ever in my life a few days ago. Wasn't happy about it but it's the only sane option.
I voted for a D for POTUS for the first time ever in my life a few days ago. Wasn't happy about it but it's the only sane option.
Im seeing lots of videos of highly engaged voters in Georgia yesterday.Clearly Trump voters can't wait to cast their ballot!!!
Democrat voters are more excited to have Biden be president than they were to have Obama be president. Who would have guessed?
Over/Under 150M voters? I think over.
For reference,
2008: 131M
2012: 130M
2016: 136M
For reference,
2008: 131M
2012: 130M
2016: 136M
Cool site to track turnout so far. Guy behind this has been quoted as saying this could be the highest since 1908 which was 65.7% (which we be about 145 million voters).
There has never been a scenario like this, where people are encouraged to vote by mail and discouraged from voting in person. People that otherwise would have voted in person later are mailing their ballot in. Over 140 million would be surprising to me because this isnt a transformative election.
140M is the natural growth for population. It was 136M last election. Democrats are voting by mail, Republicans are voting in person.
2018 was the highest mid-term turnout in 100 years. It doesn't seem unreasonable that the same factors that drove that to a record won't continue this time.
Historically, the best thing Republicans have had going for them is an apathetic public.
That ain't the case in 2020.
That ain't the case in 2020.
8 million of the 10 million are Trump voters. Mail-in ballots also lean republican, so i would assume that 30-39 million go to the GOP.
I don't think that's right. The link I posted above is the dude everyone is quoting on mail in and early vote turnout. He's aggregating data from all 50 states.
Current site data has 11.8 million "total mail ballots returned or in-person early vote."
NYT Upshot has an interesting table tallying electoral votes
Another interesting note - the 2016 polling errors undercounted Republican support, but the 2012 error was of similar magnitude, but undercounted Dem support.
For example
- Adding up only states where Biden has 3% or better lead = 341 electoral votes
- Correcting state polls to add in the same final error as 2016 polls = 319 electoral votes for Biden.
Another interesting note - the 2016 polling errors undercounted Republican support, but the 2012 error was of similar magnitude, but undercounted Dem support.
For example
- Michigan is +9 Biden
- If polling error matches 2016 then it's actually +4 Biden
- If polling error matches 2012 then it's actually +13 Biden
The polls are correct. People are more excited to vote for Biden than any other candidate in history. He is a transformational figure, so I could definitely see him outperforming Obama by 4-7% in pretty much every state.
Oooooooooor..........More people plan to vote and more plan to vote for Biden because they feel safer and more secure seeing him in the highest office of the land instead of the current occupant.
Entirely possible. I can't say why people would feel more safe and secure than they do right now with Biden in charge but the polls show it to be a possibility.
There might be a few more possible reasons why there could be a strong voter turnout for Biden. Voters might believe:
- Trump is a national security threat because of the amount of money he owes;
- Trump is a chronic liar;
- Biden would be much more honest and straightforward with the American People;
- Trump has no respect for our men and women in uniform;
- Biden is a unifier while his opponent is a divider;
- Trump hasn't taken the country's covid-19 response seriously;
- Biden has an actual plan for guiding the country through this Covid pandemic;
- The affordable care act is in danger under Trump;
- Biden's personal losses gives him a greater appreciation of the challenges facing the American People;
- The SCOTUS is in danger of reversing LGBT rights;
- The Trump Administration gave away millions of dollars in Covid relief money to big business without publicly accounting for where the money went and how much;
- We are more in danger of a nuclear attack from North Korea today than ever before;
- The actions which led to impeachment in Trump's first term would become more egregious in a second term;
Agreed. Biden will win and all things will be better for the entire world. It was so clear of a choice that it made no sense that the democrat primaries were ever in question.
Once the Democratic candidate was chosen, it did make sense. There's a reason why Biden has consistently polled better than Trump going back to 2019.
No doubt. He was clearly the best choice to lead the country. It just took time to figure that out.
Now, now, Crazy, don't get all huffy about ol' Joe.
He came out of retirement specifically to beat Trump and that's exactly what he's going to do. No one is claiming he's 'the best choice' to lead our country. But he's a good man and will be a hell of a lot better than the egotistical blowhard we currently have.
He must be the best choice. How else could anyone explain him winning both the primary and the general election?Now, now, Crazy, don't get all huffy about ol' Joe.
He came out of retirement specifically to beat Trump and that's exactly what he's going to do. No one is claiming he's 'the best choice' to lead our country. But he's a good man and will be a hell of a lot better than the egotistical blowhard we currently have.
This post is so delusional on so many levels, that you’re a complete moron.
Nearly everything that you said isn’t true and this TDS level rant probably means you need a psychological evaluation
So if you rewrite it as "yes Trump is the most divisive incumbent president in modern history, so I could definitely see him under-performing Romney by 4-7% in pretty much every state" it's a bit more reasonable. But incredibly unlikely regardless.
Opinion | Biden Is Not Out of the Woods (Published 2020)
Unanticipated electoral developments are affecting both presidential campaigns in surprising ways.
Pretty good read on where Biden and Trump are thriving, respectively
Opinion | Biden Is Not Out of the Woods (Published 2020)
Unanticipated electoral developments are affecting both presidential campaigns in surprising ways.www.nytimes.com
Pretty good read on where Biden and Trump are thriving, respectively
Good read.
Working class / non-college whites make up a HUGE chunk of the electorate, but it's a shrinking demographic. Post 2012, Republicans thought they needed to widen their coalition or get crushed by Democrats going forward. Trump effectively did the opposite, consolidating and improving performance among that group, and threading an electoral college needle.
Non college-educated whites made up 44% of the electorate in 2016, and Trump won them 64-28. Demographic trends suggest they will make up a smaller portion of the electorate this time (I've seen 41% estimates).
I think Trump will increase turnout and have more voters than last time, but he inspires the democrat base as well as he does his own. It seems a huge lift to increase turnout in shrinking demographics at such a rate to overcome turnout increases on the other side.
Based on that premise, Biden would really be threading the needle (to use your own term). Its not impossible, but its exceedingly rare for someone to win a 2 party race that is based on the anti-vote. It may work out, but if it does I think we can expect way more negative politics than we've seen.
I know of 3. 1 isn't surprising as he was a swing voter, already the other 2 are very surprising and both are pissed about the shutdown more than anything.
Yes. However, they've kind of gone off the edge and joined the MAGA cult.
