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90 million votes have been cast so far.

Based on that premise, Biden would really be threading the needle (to use your own term). Its not impossible, but its exceedingly rare for someone to win a 2 party race that is based on the anti-vote. It may work out, but if it does I think we can expect way more negative politics than we've seen.

If this was a more divisive or base-driven candidate (like Sanders or Warren) then I'd agree with you more. But a "meh" candidate like Biden makes this a referendum on Trump more than anything else. Trump is the incumbent. Americans know what a Trump presidency looks like.

If you were to poll Trump vs "Generic Democrat" he's going to land underwater. He was like -7% on that kind of polling back during the primary season.
 
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If this was a more divisive or base-driven candidate (like Sanders or Warren) then I'd agree with you more. But a "meh" candidate like Biden makes this a referendum on Trump more than anything else. Trump is the incumbent. Americans know what a Trump presidency looks like.

If you were to poll Trump vs "Generic Democrat" he's going to land underwater. He was like -7% on that kind of polling back during the primary season.
Its always that way. "Generic candidate" always beats the incumbent. To his credit, Biden has maintained his status as the generic candidate way longer than should be possible. It'll be interesting to see whether or not he can ride that out.
 
What Qanon smoking nut job from this board are we missing now?

 
"In Michigan as of Wednesday, just over 1 million ballots have been returned, 40% from registered Democrats, with the same from registered Republicans. In Wisconsin, 40% of the 711,855 returned ballots have been from Democrats, while 38% have come from Republicans. The GOP actually leads in Ohio, with 45% of 475,259 early ballot returns coming from Republicans, compared to 43% from registered Democrats. The preliminary data matches up with the requests by party affiliation for mail-in ballots. The data contradicts national polls showing Biden supporters overwhelmingly plan to vote by mail or early in person."

 
"In Michigan as of Wednesday, just over 1 million ballots have been returned, 40% from registered Democrats, with the same from registered Republicans. In Wisconsin, 40% of the 711,855 returned ballots have been from Democrats, while 38% have come from Republicans. The GOP actually leads in Ohio, with 45% of 475,259 early ballot returns coming from Republicans, compared to 43% from registered Democrats. The preliminary data matches up with the requests by party affiliation for mail-in ballots. The data contradicts national polls showing Biden supporters overwhelmingly plan to vote by mail or early in person."


Ok this threw me for a loop. The dude tracking all this stuff via official sources has no party affiliation data for those states. At the official Wisconsin site, for reference, it says specifically they do not have data by party registration. So I tracked this back through 3 links to the source, which is NBC news, and tried to figure out where this data is coming from, and found this under the NBC news chart:

"Last updated Oct. 16. Party registration is modeled by TargetSmart from multiple commercial sources. "
So basically this - in states where we have actual data (like Florida) democrats are way ahead in absentee/early votes so far (by registration). In states we don't have data, it's "modeled" - probably based on prior years or general electorate breakdown, and it looks even. I'll see if I can figure out more. Link to NBC news below.

Nationwide (where we have confirmed state data) Democrats have returned 5.3 million ballots, Republicans have returned 2.3 million ballots.



 
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Ok this threw me for a loop. The dude tracking all this stuff via official sources has no party affiliation data for those states. At the official Wisconsin site, for reference, it says specifically they do not have data by party registration. So I tracked this back through 3 links to the source, which is NBC news, and tried to figure out where this data is coming from, and found this under the NBC news chart:

"Last updated Oct. 16. Party registration is modeled by TargetSmart from multiple commercial sources. "
So basically this - in states where we have actual data (like Florida) democrats are way ahead in absentee/early votes so far (by registration). In states we don't have data, it's "modeled" - probably based on prior years or general electorate breakdown, and it looks even. I'll see if I can figure out more. Link to NBC news below.

Nationwide (where we have confirmed state data) Democrats have returned 5.3 million ballots, Republicans have returned 2.3 million ballots.




At first I figured it just came from polling, but those are pretty specific numbers.
 
At first I figured it just came from polling, but those are pretty specific numbers.

The Elections Project tracker is only counting confirmed state data, and news sources are quoting him (he's a political science prof at UF), so I think that's the most credible place to look at.

538 has Pennsylvania as the most likely tipping point state. The Democrat lead there is pretty absurd. Even in states like Kansas and Kentucky, democrats are outpacing in mail-in ballots. So I think those modeled numbers in Michigan etc are way off.

Ballot Requests: (D) 1.75m vs (R) 672k
Returned Ballots: (D) 510k vs (R) 116k
Return Rate: (D) 29% vs (R) 17%

This is only 11% of 2016 turnout so far though, so you can't draw any conclusions. But I do think it's safe to say those modeled numbers suggesting roughly equal party participation in Michigan/Wisconsin/Ohio are bunk.
 
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Ballot Requests: (D) 1.75m vs (R) 672k
Returned Ballots: (D) 510k vs (R) 116k
Return Rate: (D) 29% vs (R) 17%
Today's numbers in Florida - the State's first day of early voting - was the same way. But on the other hand, Trump promises a 'Big Red Wave' on election day so we'll see.
 
Does anyone know a single person who voted Hillary and is now voting Trump?
Yes, many. Also many that weren't sure about Trump so they didn't vote in 2016 but are 100% Trump now. I'm sure there are many that have flipped the other way, but I don't personally know any.
 
The walking dead are out and voting Biden. They figure he understands brain dead better than most.
 

Republicans now outnumber democrats for the first time in 16 years.
 
Yep Biden has the college indoctrinated crowd.
I always find it interesting when people who did not go to college nor understand the process of analytical thinking claim college indoctrinates people simply because they don't agree with or understand others positions. When in fact the Brainwashed and gaslighting happens to the uneducated. Yes I understand that college is not necessary for some and there are examples of those who did not need to learn. However, for the vast majority of us mere mortals university is a time to develop.

Colleges do not make students more liberal but rather teach students how to recognize the value of a wide variety of political viewpoints.

Colleges are not actively trying to indoctrinate their students into becoming raging liberals but rather provide an environment for students to encounter people with opposing political views as theirs and learn how to respect these different ideologies. This happens regardless of the students’ political alignments. Students are taught how to think, not what to think.

I just think its funny that people who did not experience advanced learning claim they know best when in fact they are the ones more susceptible to being politically manipulated and often actually vote against their own best interest.
 
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Science, innovation, and critical thinking coincide with liberal attitudes. So it’s understandable why people feel colleges are for “liberal indoctrination”.
 
Science, innovation, and critical thinking coincide with liberal attitudes. So it’s understandable why people feel colleges are for “liberal indoctrination”.
Welllllll, I'm struggling with your statement. I guess it is how you define liberal attitudes. I agree college does provide science, innovation and critical thinking but I don't agree it leads to a liberal philosophy. Conservative positions can have the same attributes.
I like to think that critical thinking opens you up to more diverse viewpoints, particularly when it comes to social issues but not necessarily more science driven studies such as economics....etc...
 
Welllllll, I'm struggling with your statement. I guess it is how you define liberal attitudes. I agree college does provide science, innovation and critical thinking but I don't agree it leads to a liberal philosophy. Conservative positions can have the same attributes.
I like to think that critical thinking opens you up to more diverse viewpoints, particularly when it comes to social issues but not necessarily more science driven studies such as economics....etc...
Liberalism is literally the move away from traditionally held beliefs. Science, critical thinking, and innovation are the tools that facilitate that move. Conservatism is literally the maintaining if traditional beliefs and opposition to innovation. I’m not talking the Democrat/Republican divide as neither party is truly one or the other.
 
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Trump rode a strong wave of anti-authority resentment sweeping the country (which is ironic, given Trump's authoritarian nature.)

Whether its government, higher education, or science, these angry voters railed against all those 'know-it-all's just because they don't want to be told what to do. That's the only way to explain why in the world they would argue over something as simple and straightforward as wearing masks in public--during a pandemic--for crying out loud!

When people decked out in Trump apparel are asked outside one of his maskless campaign rallies why they support him, the number one response we hear is: "He speaks for me."

So this has never been about anything resembling policy issues impacting the American People. It's nothing more than a Giant FU to the traditional American establishment (government, education, and science.)
 
Trump rode a strong wave of anti-authority resentment sweeping the country (which is ironic, given Trump's authoritarian nature.)

Whether its government, higher education, or science, these angry voters railed against all those 'know-it-all's just because they don't want to be told what to do. That's the only way to explain why in the world they would argue over something as simple and straightforward as wearing masks in public--during a pandemic--for crying out loud!

When people decked out in Trump apparel are asked outside one of his maskless campaign rallies why they support him, the number one response we hear is: "He speaks for me."

So this has never been about anything resembling policy issues impacting the American People. It's nothing more than a Giant FU to the traditional American establishment (government, education, and science.)
Give some examples of Trump being an authoritarian. You have 4 years worth of his presidency to work with so this should be easy.
 
Give some examples of Trump being an authoritarian. You have 4 years worth of his presidency to work with so this should be easy.
WTF? Is that supposed to be a 'gotcha' question? Jesus, Bill Barr is in Trump's doghouse for not arresting his political opponent weeks before the election. What the f*k is THAT?
 
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WTF? Is that supposed to be a 'gotcha' question? Jesus, Bill Barr is in Trump's doghouse for not arresting his political opponent weeks before the election. What the f*k is THAT?
He's the most powerful man in the world. Surely if he is an authoritarian you can come up with an example that doesn't include people not being forced to do what he wants.
 
He's the most powerful man in the world. Surely if he is an authoritarian you can come up with an example that doesn't include people not being forced to do what he wants.
Forcing people to do his bidding is the very epitome of an authoritarian. That's why Trump is pissed off at Barr for not following through on his request to throw his political opponent in jail.

The crazy thing about American justice is that our Attorney General needed an actual reason to jail Biden or else he'd end up being the one behind bars. But in Trump's mind, it's "Screw that lame excuse, Barr! I put you in the DOJ to do what I tell you to do."
 
Forcing people to do his bidding is the very epitome of an authoritarian. That's why Trump is pissed off at Barr for not following through on his request to throw his political opponent in jail.

The crazy thing about American justice is that our Attorney General needed an actual reason to jail Biden or else he'd end up being the one behind bars. But in Trump's mind, it's "Screw that lame excuse, Barr! I put you in the DOJ to do what I tell you to do."
So not a single example of him being an authoritarian?
 
So not a single example of him being an authoritarian?
🤪
This is like you arguing that the Titanic was 'an unsinkable ship.' I point out her little 'run-in' with an iceberg and you respond with, "so not a single example of it being sinkable?"
 
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This is like you arguing that the Titanic was 'an unsinkable ship.' I point out her little 'run-in' with an iceberg and you respond with, "so not a single example of it being sinkable?"
Are you really this dense?

If Trump was an authoritarian, why didn't he take advantage of the covid situation and grab power? It was the perfect opportunity to do so.
 
Trump is not an authoritarian... why are we arguing this? There are much more interesting things to argue about regarding Trump lol.
 
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Trump is not an authoritarian... why are we arguing this? There are much more interesting things to argue about regarding Trump lol.
Trump is about as close to a libertarian president as we have had since Coolidge. I just wish he was as soft spoken as silent Cal.
 
Science, innovation, and critical thinking coincide with liberal attitudes. So it’s understandable why people feel colleges are for “liberal indoctrination”.
The problem is, the "scientists" you're referring to work in social/pseudosciences, you're not talking about Surgeons and Engineers.

Obviously, the latter are outnumbered because there are a greater number of intellectually-challenged people than those gifted with the mental faculties required for real, concrete science and mathematics.
 
Liberalism is literally the move away from traditionally held beliefs.

He says as they're actively trying to elect someone who's been part of the establishment for ~50 years.

Science, critical thinking, and innovation are the tools that facilitate that move. Conservatism is literally the maintaining if traditional beliefs and opposition to innovation. I’m not talking the Democrat/Republican divide as neither party is truly one or the other.

yeah, this sounds very "pro-science"

"racism and science have always gone hand in hand"


You're not the party of science, you're the party of anti-religion (which I agree with), and have thus correlated the left's perpetuation of atheism as being "pro-science". Most of the "science" you tend to be a fan of are projections and models that end up being false when push comes to shove, so you're not even very good at the science you do claim to like.
 
He says as they're actively trying to elect someone who's been part of the establishment for ~50 years.



yeah, this sounds very "pro-science"

"racism and science have always gone hand in hand"


You're not the party of science, you're the party of anti-religion (which I agree with), and have thus correlated the left's perpetuation of atheism as being "pro-science". Most of the "science" you tend to be a fan of are projections and models that end up being false when push comes to shove, so you're not even very good at the science you do claim to like.
You are confusing liberalism with Biden and the Democratic Party. Rookie mistake. Who said Biden represented pure liberalism?
 
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