After enjoying their best season in school history, a tip away from advancing to the Sweet Sixteen, Johnny Dawkins and UCF Basketball are facing a rebuild.
Though nobody expected a repeat NCAA Tournament appearance this year, the early results have been sobering as UCF is the only winless team in the American. It's not a complete surprise. After all, UCF lost the key nucleus from last year's team - B.J. Taylor, Tacko Fall and Aubrey Dawkins - but the hope was by bringing in a pair of graduate transfers, Dazon Ingram and Matt Milon, the Knights could be competitive in the AAC and perhaps compete for an NIT bid. Those hopes appear to be rapidly dwindling.
With a lot of discussion in recent days about recruiting, I thought I'd take a look back at the four years of recruiting classes under Dawkins, including signees and transfers. This is not meant as an criticism on Dawkins, anything but. He's the best basketball coach that UCF has ever had, and like I said earlier, just led UCF to its best ever season. But it's also fair to say that UCF has made some recruiting miscalculations of late, which has contributed to a less-than-competitive roster this season.
Is there time to turn things around? Of course. But the AAC could be as deep as its ever been, which makes things that much more difficult. Former "easy wins" against teams like Tulane and ECU may not be gimmes like in years past. Tulane has already beat Cincinnati and Temple and took Memphis to the wire. ECU only lost by six at Wichita State and is coming off wins vs. USF and SMU.
Anyway, here's a look at the past four classes.
2016-17:
Nick Banyard (Illinois State grad transfer) - Played a big role in his only season at UCF, helping the Knights to an NIT Final Four appearance. Started in 22 games, averaging only 6.2 points, but had some key moments such as a game-winning three at UMass and some big performances in conference wins.
Aubrey Dawkins - He was at UCF for three years, but only played one season (2018-19). Was one of the top players in the American and his contributions were a big reason why UCF made the NCAA Tournament last year. Averaged 15.6 points and shot .403 from long range (73 of 181).
Ceasar DeJesus - Academic issues forced him to sit out his first season, then injury issues the following year pushed him into an immediate starting role in 2017-18. With the contingent healthy last season (specifically, Aubrey), DeJesus saw his role greatly diminish, only averaging 11.3 minutes and 3.4 points per game. This season as a redshirt junior, DeJesus is back into a primary role as a starter and is second on the team in scoring (11.1 ppg). He started at point guard in place of Dazon Ingram vs. Cincinnati.
Terrell Allen (Drexel transfer) - After sitting out his first season, he quickly saw starts at point guard when B.J. Taylor broke his foot in the first game. He was a major contributor in both of his seasons, starting all 33 games last year. He departed after the NCAA Tournament to play his final year at Georgetown as a grad transfer. He's now starting for Georgetown, posting solid numbers at the beginning of Big East play. He scored 16 a few nights ago vs. St. John's. The Hoyas are currently 11-6, but 1-3 in the Big East.
Dayon Griffin (Louisiana Tech transfer) - Was primarily a rotation player in his two seasons. He saw more action in 2017-18, averaging 27.4 minutes, likely due to the rash of injuries that year. His playing time decreased last season but was still one of the first few players off the bench.
Rokas Ulvydas (Texas Tech transfer) - After sitting out, he was a non-factor until Tacko Fall got hurt and UCF needed another big besides Chad Brown. Then prior to last season, he roughed up a roommate, got arrested and kicked out of the country. He wasn't going to play anyway because at that point UCF had Tacko healthy, Chad and Collin Smith.
2017-18:
Kani Coles (JUCO transfer) - This was an odd situation. He signed with UCF, though apparently never qualified so he didn't enroll. UCF ended up using his scholarship on Collin Smith.
Collin Smith (Geoge Washington transfer) - Primary starter last season and is now the best player on this year's team, now thrust in a bigger role following the departures of B.J., Aubrey and Tacko. Leads the team in scoring (13.9) and rebounds (6.7).
Myles Douglas - Saw minimal action as a true freshman, sat out the entire 2018-19 season due to injury and transferred this past offseason to St. Joseph's. He was immediately eligible and is now a starter at St. Joe's, averaging 9.3 ppg for a 3-13 team.
Daniel Lewis - Didn't do anything his first few months at UCF, then transferred in December to Kennesaw State. He was a major contributor last season (second on the team in scoring). Not sure what happened there this year, perhaps an injury. He was a starter at the beginning of the season, but hasn't played since Dec. 4.
2018-19:
Dre Fuller Jr. - With an experienced veteran group returning, UCF made the decision to redshirt Fuller last season. He's become a primary player this year, emerging as a starter, though he had to sit out the Cincinnati game with a groin injury. He had a season-high 14 points vs. Temple. Not a huge sample size at this point, but appears to have a promising future.
Ibrahim Famouke Doumbia (South Carolina transfer) - Sat out last season and is a total non-factor, and only players if there's significant foul trouble or you're clearing the bench in a blowout.
Frank Bertz (JUCO transfer) - Was brought in to fill at Matt Williams type role, a sharpshooter who could give UCF a boost from the three-point line. Bertz shot .360 from three last year (34 of 97). He's started a few games this year and is seeing 20 minutes a game, up from 11 last year. This year he's averaging just .300 from long range (15 of 50).
Yuat Alok (TCU transfer) - Transferred to UCF in January 2019 which meant he had to sit out the beginning of this season before presumingly becoming eligible this semester. He never got to that point as he flunked out in December, never seeing one minute of action in a UCF uniform.
2019-20:
Tony Johnson Jr. - Point guard, though has seen minimal action this season. Has scored two points the entire season. The only action he's seen in conference play was the last two minutes vs. Cincinnati when the game had already been decided.
Matt Milon (William & Mary grad transfer) - Was brought in with the belief that he would be a starter and major scoring contributor. He had a terrible slump to begin the season, but there was some optimism that perhaps the recent SMU game was a breakthrough (he scored 19 points, his only double digit points game of the year) but he faded away again vs. Cincinnati (4 points, 2 of 6 shooting) despite playing 28 minutes. Interestingly, both Milon and Frank Bertz have the exact same shooting percentage from three (15 of 50, .300).
Avery Diggs (JUCO transfer) - UCF's only big man besides Collin Smith, who sees more minutes when Collin gets in foul trouble. Somewhat hard to grade, though I think he's done what has been asked of him.
Dazon Ingram (Alabama grad transfer) - With B.J. Taylor moving on and no experience returning at point guard (Terrell Allen leaving), UCF made the decision to bring in Ingram, who had been in and out of the starting lineup at Alabama. After some strong early season performances against inferior competition, Ingram has seemingly taken a step back in conference play. He did score 13 points at Houston with eight of those points coming off free throws. His scoring output in other league games: Temple (2), SMU (4) and Cincinnati (0). Dawkins made the decision to not start Ingram vs. Cincinnati. His minutes are going down - he played 19 minutes at SMU, 21 minutes vs. Cincinnati. He had been playing 35-36 minutes in games that were competitive until the end (Temple, OU, etc.).
Brandon Mahan (Texas A&M transfer) - A pleasant surprise when he was declared immediately eligible to play. He saw his most extended action of the season vs. Cincinnati, playing 32 minutes and scoring 13 points. More of a role player type.
Darin Green Jr. - After being a starter and major contributor in non-conference play, his playing time has decreased in AAC action, seeing just 16 minutes at Houston, 10 minutes at SMU and 10 minutes vs. Cincinnati. He had seven double-digit scoring games in OOC play, but has barely taken any shots in league games.
Moses Bol (JUCO transfer) - A newcomer to basketball but possessing great height (7-foot-1), UCF made the decision to take a gamble on him, knowing it might take a while for him to develop. They have elected to redshirt him, hoping he can contribute in the future. Dawkins said he's gained 20-25 pounds since his arrival.
Synopsis:
I understand why the decision was made to bring in a pair of grad transfers, the hope being to remain competitive and build on last year's season, but with both players under-performing and UCF struggling, obviously hindsight is 20/20 now that UCF should have gone in a different direction.
Looking more closely at this year's class and how it came to be transfer heavy, UCF's back was sort of against the wall - they only recruited one player in the early signing period (Darin Green Jr.). They didn't seem to have a wide net, missing out on their first choices at PG in particular: Tre Mann (Florida) and Jahcobi Neath (Wake Forest). With a bunch of open scholarships in the spring, their pool was primarily going to consist of JUCOs and transfers. They did find Tony Johnson who was previously unsigned though, but most quality high school players by then were already taken.
It's not quite fair to criticize the reliance on transfers because some of the best teams in the AAC have thrived on transfers - it's just UCF has had mostly misses in the transfer category. On this year's team, the exception obviously is Collin Smith. One wonders if he will stick around next year for what will certainly be another rebuilding year. He would be a valuable player on the grad transfer market, should he opt to go in that direction.
It does appear Dawkins, after concentrating mostly on transfers the past four seasons, seems more focused on building from the high school ranks. UCF has two early signees, both from HS: Isaiah Adams and Jamille Reynolds. They are recruiting a potential third in Marchelus Avery, who just took his OV this weekend. UCF had two promising freshmen on this year's team: Dre Fuller and Darin Green.
I also should mention VCU transfer Sean Mobley, who is currently sitting out. He enrolled as a walk-on (he really wanted to be closer to home) but is a scholarship worthy player (started 23 games at VCU last year) who will definitely contribute in the future. I believe UCF gave him Yuat Alok's open scholarship for this spring. He sort of fell in UCF's lap - he just really wanted to be here and was willing to walk on after UCF was full.
UCF will have a minimum of three open scholarships after this season (Bertz, Milon, Ingram). Two are obviously already spoken for with the early signees. That number could go up with possible departures. Collin Smith and Ceasar DeJesus could be grad transfers (not saying it's happening, just something to be aware of). Other players could leave in pursuit of playing time (Doumbia to a Division II, etc.).
It's quite possible some high-level transfers become available this off season, but you would hope any future additions are more like Collin Smith and less like Yuat Alok.
Though nobody expected a repeat NCAA Tournament appearance this year, the early results have been sobering as UCF is the only winless team in the American. It's not a complete surprise. After all, UCF lost the key nucleus from last year's team - B.J. Taylor, Tacko Fall and Aubrey Dawkins - but the hope was by bringing in a pair of graduate transfers, Dazon Ingram and Matt Milon, the Knights could be competitive in the AAC and perhaps compete for an NIT bid. Those hopes appear to be rapidly dwindling.
With a lot of discussion in recent days about recruiting, I thought I'd take a look back at the four years of recruiting classes under Dawkins, including signees and transfers. This is not meant as an criticism on Dawkins, anything but. He's the best basketball coach that UCF has ever had, and like I said earlier, just led UCF to its best ever season. But it's also fair to say that UCF has made some recruiting miscalculations of late, which has contributed to a less-than-competitive roster this season.
Is there time to turn things around? Of course. But the AAC could be as deep as its ever been, which makes things that much more difficult. Former "easy wins" against teams like Tulane and ECU may not be gimmes like in years past. Tulane has already beat Cincinnati and Temple and took Memphis to the wire. ECU only lost by six at Wichita State and is coming off wins vs. USF and SMU.
Anyway, here's a look at the past four classes.
2016-17:
Nick Banyard (Illinois State grad transfer) - Played a big role in his only season at UCF, helping the Knights to an NIT Final Four appearance. Started in 22 games, averaging only 6.2 points, but had some key moments such as a game-winning three at UMass and some big performances in conference wins.
Aubrey Dawkins - He was at UCF for three years, but only played one season (2018-19). Was one of the top players in the American and his contributions were a big reason why UCF made the NCAA Tournament last year. Averaged 15.6 points and shot .403 from long range (73 of 181).
Ceasar DeJesus - Academic issues forced him to sit out his first season, then injury issues the following year pushed him into an immediate starting role in 2017-18. With the contingent healthy last season (specifically, Aubrey), DeJesus saw his role greatly diminish, only averaging 11.3 minutes and 3.4 points per game. This season as a redshirt junior, DeJesus is back into a primary role as a starter and is second on the team in scoring (11.1 ppg). He started at point guard in place of Dazon Ingram vs. Cincinnati.
Terrell Allen (Drexel transfer) - After sitting out his first season, he quickly saw starts at point guard when B.J. Taylor broke his foot in the first game. He was a major contributor in both of his seasons, starting all 33 games last year. He departed after the NCAA Tournament to play his final year at Georgetown as a grad transfer. He's now starting for Georgetown, posting solid numbers at the beginning of Big East play. He scored 16 a few nights ago vs. St. John's. The Hoyas are currently 11-6, but 1-3 in the Big East.
Dayon Griffin (Louisiana Tech transfer) - Was primarily a rotation player in his two seasons. He saw more action in 2017-18, averaging 27.4 minutes, likely due to the rash of injuries that year. His playing time decreased last season but was still one of the first few players off the bench.
Rokas Ulvydas (Texas Tech transfer) - After sitting out, he was a non-factor until Tacko Fall got hurt and UCF needed another big besides Chad Brown. Then prior to last season, he roughed up a roommate, got arrested and kicked out of the country. He wasn't going to play anyway because at that point UCF had Tacko healthy, Chad and Collin Smith.
2017-18:
Kani Coles (JUCO transfer) - This was an odd situation. He signed with UCF, though apparently never qualified so he didn't enroll. UCF ended up using his scholarship on Collin Smith.
Collin Smith (Geoge Washington transfer) - Primary starter last season and is now the best player on this year's team, now thrust in a bigger role following the departures of B.J., Aubrey and Tacko. Leads the team in scoring (13.9) and rebounds (6.7).
Myles Douglas - Saw minimal action as a true freshman, sat out the entire 2018-19 season due to injury and transferred this past offseason to St. Joseph's. He was immediately eligible and is now a starter at St. Joe's, averaging 9.3 ppg for a 3-13 team.
Daniel Lewis - Didn't do anything his first few months at UCF, then transferred in December to Kennesaw State. He was a major contributor last season (second on the team in scoring). Not sure what happened there this year, perhaps an injury. He was a starter at the beginning of the season, but hasn't played since Dec. 4.
2018-19:
Dre Fuller Jr. - With an experienced veteran group returning, UCF made the decision to redshirt Fuller last season. He's become a primary player this year, emerging as a starter, though he had to sit out the Cincinnati game with a groin injury. He had a season-high 14 points vs. Temple. Not a huge sample size at this point, but appears to have a promising future.
Ibrahim Famouke Doumbia (South Carolina transfer) - Sat out last season and is a total non-factor, and only players if there's significant foul trouble or you're clearing the bench in a blowout.
Frank Bertz (JUCO transfer) - Was brought in to fill at Matt Williams type role, a sharpshooter who could give UCF a boost from the three-point line. Bertz shot .360 from three last year (34 of 97). He's started a few games this year and is seeing 20 minutes a game, up from 11 last year. This year he's averaging just .300 from long range (15 of 50).
Yuat Alok (TCU transfer) - Transferred to UCF in January 2019 which meant he had to sit out the beginning of this season before presumingly becoming eligible this semester. He never got to that point as he flunked out in December, never seeing one minute of action in a UCF uniform.
2019-20:
Tony Johnson Jr. - Point guard, though has seen minimal action this season. Has scored two points the entire season. The only action he's seen in conference play was the last two minutes vs. Cincinnati when the game had already been decided.
Matt Milon (William & Mary grad transfer) - Was brought in with the belief that he would be a starter and major scoring contributor. He had a terrible slump to begin the season, but there was some optimism that perhaps the recent SMU game was a breakthrough (he scored 19 points, his only double digit points game of the year) but he faded away again vs. Cincinnati (4 points, 2 of 6 shooting) despite playing 28 minutes. Interestingly, both Milon and Frank Bertz have the exact same shooting percentage from three (15 of 50, .300).
Avery Diggs (JUCO transfer) - UCF's only big man besides Collin Smith, who sees more minutes when Collin gets in foul trouble. Somewhat hard to grade, though I think he's done what has been asked of him.
Dazon Ingram (Alabama grad transfer) - With B.J. Taylor moving on and no experience returning at point guard (Terrell Allen leaving), UCF made the decision to bring in Ingram, who had been in and out of the starting lineup at Alabama. After some strong early season performances against inferior competition, Ingram has seemingly taken a step back in conference play. He did score 13 points at Houston with eight of those points coming off free throws. His scoring output in other league games: Temple (2), SMU (4) and Cincinnati (0). Dawkins made the decision to not start Ingram vs. Cincinnati. His minutes are going down - he played 19 minutes at SMU, 21 minutes vs. Cincinnati. He had been playing 35-36 minutes in games that were competitive until the end (Temple, OU, etc.).
Brandon Mahan (Texas A&M transfer) - A pleasant surprise when he was declared immediately eligible to play. He saw his most extended action of the season vs. Cincinnati, playing 32 minutes and scoring 13 points. More of a role player type.
Darin Green Jr. - After being a starter and major contributor in non-conference play, his playing time has decreased in AAC action, seeing just 16 minutes at Houston, 10 minutes at SMU and 10 minutes vs. Cincinnati. He had seven double-digit scoring games in OOC play, but has barely taken any shots in league games.
Moses Bol (JUCO transfer) - A newcomer to basketball but possessing great height (7-foot-1), UCF made the decision to take a gamble on him, knowing it might take a while for him to develop. They have elected to redshirt him, hoping he can contribute in the future. Dawkins said he's gained 20-25 pounds since his arrival.
Synopsis:
I understand why the decision was made to bring in a pair of grad transfers, the hope being to remain competitive and build on last year's season, but with both players under-performing and UCF struggling, obviously hindsight is 20/20 now that UCF should have gone in a different direction.
Looking more closely at this year's class and how it came to be transfer heavy, UCF's back was sort of against the wall - they only recruited one player in the early signing period (Darin Green Jr.). They didn't seem to have a wide net, missing out on their first choices at PG in particular: Tre Mann (Florida) and Jahcobi Neath (Wake Forest). With a bunch of open scholarships in the spring, their pool was primarily going to consist of JUCOs and transfers. They did find Tony Johnson who was previously unsigned though, but most quality high school players by then were already taken.
It's not quite fair to criticize the reliance on transfers because some of the best teams in the AAC have thrived on transfers - it's just UCF has had mostly misses in the transfer category. On this year's team, the exception obviously is Collin Smith. One wonders if he will stick around next year for what will certainly be another rebuilding year. He would be a valuable player on the grad transfer market, should he opt to go in that direction.
It does appear Dawkins, after concentrating mostly on transfers the past four seasons, seems more focused on building from the high school ranks. UCF has two early signees, both from HS: Isaiah Adams and Jamille Reynolds. They are recruiting a potential third in Marchelus Avery, who just took his OV this weekend. UCF had two promising freshmen on this year's team: Dre Fuller and Darin Green.
I also should mention VCU transfer Sean Mobley, who is currently sitting out. He enrolled as a walk-on (he really wanted to be closer to home) but is a scholarship worthy player (started 23 games at VCU last year) who will definitely contribute in the future. I believe UCF gave him Yuat Alok's open scholarship for this spring. He sort of fell in UCF's lap - he just really wanted to be here and was willing to walk on after UCF was full.
UCF will have a minimum of three open scholarships after this season (Bertz, Milon, Ingram). Two are obviously already spoken for with the early signees. That number could go up with possible departures. Collin Smith and Ceasar DeJesus could be grad transfers (not saying it's happening, just something to be aware of). Other players could leave in pursuit of playing time (Doumbia to a Division II, etc.).
It's quite possible some high-level transfers become available this off season, but you would hope any future additions are more like Collin Smith and less like Yuat Alok.
