AAC in 2015-16

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I feel that we had a down year this year with Memphis and Connecticut having somewhat disappointing years. So how does our conference look for next year? Well, I am interested in how the American will look next year so I am going to try and post on each team's stats, recruits, and seniors lost. Before that, here is the standings for this year:

Team Conf. Overall
SMU 15-3 26-6
Tulsa 14-4 22-10
Temple 13-5 23-10
Cinci 13-5 22-10
Memphis 10-8 18-14
UConn 10-8 20-13
Tulane 6-12 15-16
ECU 6-12 14-19
UCF 5-13 12-18
Houston 4-14 13-19
USF 3-15 9-23

 

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SMU 15-3 26-6

Seniors lost
- Ryan Manuel 28.7min, 6.7pts, 2.2ast, 3.4rebs (player efficiency 12.2)
Yanick Moreira 24.4min, 11.3pts 1.0ast, 6.4rebs (player efficiency 24.5)
Kevin Dunleavy 7 gms- walk-on
Cannen Cunningham 16.2mins, 6.3pts, 3.5rebs, 0.6blk (player efficiency 20.0)
Justin Martin 10 gms, 12.2mins (turn pro) (player efficiency 19.3)
Jean-Micheal Mudiay 6 gms, left team

Additions
Jordan Tolbert senior Transfer (10pts, 5.8rebs, 26 mins at TTU as a fresh, soph, and junior)
Shake Milton 6'4 PG, HS commit 4-star
Sedric Barefield 6'2 PG, HS Commit 3-star
Jarrey Foster 6'4 SF, HS commit, 3-star
plus 2 more available spots (I think)

3 Key Returners (unless turn pro)
Nic Moore 34mins, 14.5pts, 5.3ast, (player efficiency 20.4)
Markus Kennedy 24mins, 11.3pts, 6.0 rebs (player efficiency 28.8)
Sterling Brown 23mins, 5,3pts, 4.2rebs, 2.0ast (player efficiency 16.5)

Notes
returning 4/5 top scorers
returning 4/5 top rebounders
returning 6/7 top asst
losing 2/4 top minutes (2,4)
losing 4/8 scorers (3,6,7,8)
losing 3/5 top efficiency (2,4,5)

SMU loses a few role players but still has a great core of players. As long as they don't lose anyone early to the draft (Moore or Kennedy), they should be contending for another conference title. They will have many seniors and juniors on their team next year. It will also be interesting to see how they fill in their remaining recruits though. I think they will stay about EVEN if you grade out their team talent but if the AAC is tougher next year, expect maybe a few more conference losses (4 or 5).

 

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Tulsa 14-4 22-10

Surprise, surprise! I was shocked that Tulsa did so well this year! You want to know what is more shocking? They lose ZERO players!! 2015-16 will be the icing on the cake!

Seniors lost
-none-

Additions
Sterling Taplin 6'2 PG, Postgrad 3-star
Patrick Birt 6'5 SF, Juco (no ratings for Juco)

3 Key Returners (all 3 will be seniors)
James Woodard 34.3mins, 14.8pts, 4.6rebs, 1.1ast (player efficiency 18.2)
Shaquille Harrison 31.4mins, 13.4pts, 5.0rebs, 3.7ast (player efficiency 21.9)
Rashad Smith 28.5mins, 8.6pts, 6.1rebs, 0,7ast, (player efficiency 13.6)

Notes
return all scorers
return all starters
will have 8 seniors
will have 3 juniors

Tulsa will be an improved team next year as long as they avoid transfers/injuries. I don't know how high the sky is, but the sky is the limit for Tulsa during conference play. I think they could be the favorite going into the season. The real test will be the NCAA for them. How far can they go? I think (and hope) they will be a top-20 team in 2015-16.
This post was edited on 3/14 10:44 PM by ucf_71127

 

[ucf_71127]

Temple 13-5 23-9

Seniors Lost
Will Cummings 34mins, 14.4pts, 4.2rebs, 4.3ast (player efficiency 21.1)
Jesse Morgan 29mins, 11.9pts, 3.3rebs, 1.5ast (player efficiency 16.1)
Jimmy McDonnell 13 games, 3mins, .2pts, .6rebs, .2ast
Nick Pedergast walk-on 10 gms, 1min, .2pts, .1rebs, .1ast

Additions
Levan Alston 6'4 SG, HS commit 4-star (Espn Top-100)
Trey Lowe 6'5 SG, HS commit 4-star
Ernest Aflakpui 6'10 C, HS commit 4-star

3 Key Returners
Quenton DeCosey 30mins, 12,3pts, 4.4rebs, 2.1ast (player efficiency 15.8)
Jaylen Bond 27.7mins, 8pts, 8.1rebs, .7blk (player efficiency 18.1)
Obi Enechionyia 18mins, 4.9pts, 3.5rebs, 1.2blk (player efficiency 15.4)

Notes
losing 2/3 top scorers (1,3)
losing 2/5 top rebounders (3.5)
losing 2/4 top assist (1,4)
losing 2/3 minutes played (1,3)

Temple is losing 2 solid players/starters. However, they have enough pieces to have another strong year. They have also recruited very strongly so holes should be filled easily. I expect Temple to be EVEN with talent next year. Their conference record might not reflect them being just as strong next year, but they will contend for the top-4 in the conference and will also contend to be a NCAA "bubble" team.

 

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Cincinnati 13-5 22-10

Seniors Lost
Ge'Lawn Guyn 21mins, 3.5pts, 2.0rebs, 1.5ast (2 games)
Jermaine Sanders 21mins, 4.7pts, 2.9rebs, .9ast

Additions
Jacob Evans 6'6 SG, HS commit 4-star
Justin Jenifer 5'10 PG, HS commit 4-star
Tre Scott 6'7 SF, HS commit 3-star

3 Key Returners
Octavius Ellis 29mins, 10pts, 7.3rebs, 1.4ast, 2.1blk
Gary Clark 27mins, 7.9pts, 7.0rebs, 1.7ast, 1.0stl, 1.3blk (was a FRESHMAN)
Troy Caupain 31mins, 9.5pts, 3.6rebs, 3.5ast, 1.2stl

Notes
return top 6 scorers
return top 4 rebounders
had 3 guys shoot above .540% on FG
Caupain shot .431% from 3PT
5 guys 6'7-6'10

Cincinnati did not lose much from a team that went dancing. The have 2 bigs that can score and rebound, plus an incredible sniper from deep! Their senior class did not produce much in 14-15. Look for bigger and better things from Cinci this coming year. I expect to see Cinci IMPROVE with their team talent in 2015-16.

 

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Connecticut 10-8 22-14

Seniors lost
Ryan Boatright 36mins, 17.4pts, 4.1rebs, 3.8ast (player efficiency 23.5- 2nd on team)
Pat Lenehan 6gms
Terrance Ditimi (walk-on) 6 gms

Additions
Jalen Adams 6'2 PG, HS commit 4-star (Top-100)
Steven Enoch 6'10 C, HS commit 4-star (Top-100)

3 Key Returners
Rodney Purvis 28mins, 11.4pts, 2.3rebs, 1.2ast
Daniel Hamilton 31mins, 10.7pts, 7.6rebs, 3.7ast
Amida Brimah 26mins, 9.4pts, 4.6rebs, 3.5blks

Notes
So far, they have the most talented "Top-3" players returning.
Returning 9/10 top scorers (not #1)
Returning 9/10 top rebounders (#4)
Returning 9/10 top assist (#1)
Returning 9/10 top steals (#1)
Have 5/6 guys returning with 12 or higher with "Player Efficiency"
6 guys returning that are 6'7-7'0

UConn is UConn. They have talent and reload every year. They will still be explosive in 2015-16. They do lose their #1 guy and game-changer, but there are many players anxiously waiting to take his spot at the top! I would guess that UConn plays better in their OOC schedule. I would also guess that they do better than 10-8 in conference play. In total they lost 6 games by 4 or less points. I see UConn IMPROVING slightly next year in talent.

 

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Memphis 10-8 18-14

Seniors lost
Calvin Godfrey 14mins, 4.5pts, 3.6rebs, .8blk

Additions
Dedric Lawson 6'8 PF, HS commit 4-star (Top-100)
K.J. Lawson 6'7 SF, HS commit, 4-star (Top-100)
Randall Broddie 6'2 PG, HS commit, 3-star

3 Key Returners
Austin Nichols 29mins, 13.3pts, 6.1rebs, 3.4blk (player efficiency 24.2)
Shaq Goodwin 26mins, 9.6pts, 7.1rebs, 1.6ast (player efficiency 21.2)
Trahson Burrell 24mins, 9.1pts, 5.2rebs, 1.9ast (player efficiency 20.6)

Notes
return top 8 scorers
return top 4 rebounders
8 players return with 18+ mins/gm
6 players on roster that are 6'7-6'10
Austin Nichols was ranked the 4th most efficient player in conference

Memphis is bringing in a very talented recruiting class. They lose one senior but he had a limited roll. Memphis will be stronger and more talented. They will IMPROVE in 2015-16 with talent and their overall record. They could be a dark horse in the AAC.

 

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Tulane 6-12 15-16

Seniors lost
Jay Hook 30mins, 11.2pts, 4.9rebs, .9ast, (player efficiency 17.3)
Trevante Drye 24mins, 4.8pts, 5.1rebs, .7ast, (player efficiency 10.2)

Additions
Blake Paul 6'9 C, HS commit 3-star
Kain Harris 6'4 SG,HS commit 3-star
Maxwell Starwood 6'5 PF, HS commit 3-star
Taron Oliver 6'9 C, HS commit 2-star

3 Key Returners
Louis Dabney 32mins, 13.6pts, 3.3rebs, 1.5ast, (player efficiency 16.1)
Jonathan Stark 32mins, 10.6pts, 2.5rebs, 4.4ast, (player efficiency 13.9)
Dylan Osetkowski 22mins, 6.3pts, 4.8rebs, 0.8ast, (player efficiency 14.7)

Notes
return 5/7 top scorers (2, 7)
lose top 2 rebounders
lose 2/4 highest min/gm
9 players over 6'7
Ranked 3rd in ORB this year (in AAC)

Tulane is losing two great contributors. Not their stars, but they didn't have a "star" this year. Next year, their talent will remain EVEN, but because of the American improving in 2015-16 I see Tulane struggling even more this coming season. They have some height, but may lack in scoring and offense.

 

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ECU 6-12 14-19

Seniors lost
Antonio Robinson 24mins, 4.2pts, 2.2rebs, 3.7ast (player efficiency 13.1)
Paris Roberts-Cambell 19mins, 4.9pts, 3.2rebs, 1.1ast (player efficiency 14.3)
Francis Odosomwan (walk-on)

Additions
Kentrell Barkley 6'5 SF, HS commit (NR)
Clarence Williams 6'8 PF, Juco commit

3 Key Returners
B.J. Tyson 24mins, 12,5pts, 3.9rebs, 1.4ast (player efficiency 21.9) (was a freshman)
Terry Whisnant 31mins, 12.3pts, 2.6rebs, 1.8ast (player efficiency 16.4) (was a junior)
Caleb White 31mins, 12.2pts, 3.5rebs, 1.4ast (player efficiency 15.8) (was a sophomore)

Notes
return top 5 scorers
return 6/7 top rebounders (6)
return 5/6 top assist (1)
#1 3PT% in conference
7 guys taller than 6'7

ECU has 3 "solid" players coming back. They will be experienced with 6 seniors and 5 juniors on their team. Yes, they will be IMPROVED in 2015-16. But, I just don't know if their talent will be able to take them to the next level. They went 6-12 in conference this year and I don't know if their record will improve. They will be in the bottom tier of the AAC fighting to get to the middle.

 

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Houston 4-14 13-19

Seniors lost
Mikhail McLeon played 15 games 10mins, 2.5pts

Additions
Chris Harris 6'9 C, HS commit (no LOI yet) 4-star
Xavier Dupree 6'9 SF Juco commit

3 Key Returners
Jherrod Stiggers 14.2pts, 3.6rebs, 2.5ast, (player efficiency 14.1)
Devonta Pollard 11.4pts, 6.4rebs, 1.2ast, (player efficiency 17.2)
L.J. Rose 9.8pts, 2.5rebs, 5.3ast, (player efficiency 11.8)

Notes
1st in conference FT%
return top 9 scorers
return top 7 rebounders
return top 7 in assist
7 seniors next year
4 juniors next year
5 guys over 6'7

Houston could come out of no where and surprise the conference. No, they won't win the conference, but they will have a few upsets against better teams. The don't lose anyone of any concern, they have lots of experience, and they shoot well from the FT line. They will be a much IMPROVED team in 2015-16. This is their year to shine, even though I don't think they will have their "one shining moment".

 

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USF 3-15 9-23

Seniors lost
Corey Allen 33.5mins, 15.4pts, 3.6rebs, 2.5ast (player efficiency 19.6)

Additions
Tulio Da Silva 6'8 PF. HS commit 4-star
Luis Santos 6'9 C, HS commit 4-star
Luis Montero 6'8 SF, Juco commit NR
Jahmal McMurray 5'11 SG, HS commit NR
Roddy Peters 6'3 G (Red-shirt)

3 Key Returners
Chris Perry 26mins, 10.8pts, 7.1rebs, 1.3blk, (player efficiency 18.9)
Nehemias Morillo 28mins, 10.1pts, 4.3rebs, 1.3ast, (player efficiency 12.8)
Anthony Collins 34mins, 7.1pts, 2.6rebs, 5.2ast (player efficiency 12.2)

Notes
loses top player/scorer
6 players 6'7 or taller
1st in fouls (in conference)
last in FT%, assist, and points/gm (in conference)

USF keeps getting talent and transfers but they can't seem to win. They are losing their top player so I wouldn't expect them to improve too much. I still see them in the cellar in 2015-16, even though their talent is IMPROVING. They did a great job with their recruits bringing in two 4-stars. They probably will not make an immediate impact, but if USF keeps recruiting they will have a brighter future.

 

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UCF 5-13 12-18

Seniors lost
Kasey Wilson 23mins, 7.8pts, 4.9rebs, 1.0ast (player efficiency 14.2)
Miles Davis (walk-on) 18gms, 4mins/gm

Additions
Tacko Fall 7'6 C, HS commit 4-star (Top-100)
Chance McSpadden 6'3 SG, HS commit 3-star
Chad Brown 6'8 C, HS commit 3-star
Tanksley Effianayi 6'5 SG, Juco
AJ Davis 6'9 SF, transferred/redshirt 14-15
Matt Williams 6'5 SG, injured in 14-15

3 Key Returners
BJ Taylor 33mins, 12.8pts, 3.0rebs, 2.5ast, (player efficiency 15.8)
Adonys Henriguez 35mins, 10.8pts, 3.3rebs, 2.1ast, (player efficiency 14.2)
Justin McBride 14mins, 6.3pts, 4.3rebs, 0.9 blk, (player efficiency 20.6)

Notes
Return top 5 players in player efficiency
Return 4/5 in scoring (5)
Return 7/8 top rebounders (2)
7 players 6'7 or taller

UCF will be much IMPROVED in 2015-16. With a full roster/scholarship and 2 all-conference freshman players returning to lead the Knights, UCF will jump up into the 2nd tier of the AAC. In 2015, UCF might be starting 2 juniors and 3 sophomores (McBride, Goodwin, Taylor, Adonys, and new man AJ Davis). If you're a Knight, the future looks bright! Just hoping that we recruit well for the 2016 season. It will be interesting!

 

[ucf_71127]

After checking out all the teams, here is my early prediction for 2015-16 AAC standings. Not sure how many conference games we will play, but I will take a stab at each teams record.

Tulsa 15-3
SMU 14-4
Cinci 13-5
Memphis 13-5
UConn 12-6
---------------
UCF 12-6
Temple 10-8
ECU 9-9
Tulane 6-12
Houston 6-12
---------------
USF 3-15
---------------
Navy 1-17

Having Navy will help give many teams an extra win or 2. They are a very small team and lose 2 senior leaders. Truthfully, they may not even win 1 game in conference. I also put UCF in the 2nd tier even though we have a similar record to uconn and memphis. This is because I am hoping we don't lose any upsets.

 

[ucf_71127]

Here is an interesting fact/stat that I noticed. The AAC will be much improved next year and it will be largely be due to the amount of players returning and senior leadership. This year we didn't have many seniors getting playing time, and EVERY team felt the lack of seniors!

Did you know....
- the AAC only had 14 seniors that played +20 games and scored 50 points in the entire year!!

If your compare those same stats with the other classes, this is how they compare:
- Freshman class had 17
- Sophomore class had 28
- Junior class had 40[/B] (almost triple the amount as the senior class)

 

[ucf_71127]

The off season can be a great part of the year because many players can work on specific weaknesses and skills. They also can eat better and weight train a lot harder. Most players should get better from year to year. There are always new faces to see and watch them try to find their role with the team.

However, the unexpected can occur, TRANSFERS. This year, the NCAA tourney isn't even over and we are seeing some players transfer from teams in the American.

TRANSFERS (as of 3-30-15)

Cinci- Jamaree Strickland 6'10 RS-FR 1 gm
*Ge'Lawn Guyn 6'2 RS-SR 2 gms
ECU- *Gregory Alexander 6'4 SO 6 gms
Houston- Torian Graham 6'4 JR 0 gms
*Egi Gjikondi 6'9 SO 9 gms
Memphis- Kuran Iverson 6'8 SO 8 gms
Nick King 6'7 SO 7.2pts, 4.8rebs
Dominic McGee 6'3 FR 0 gms
Rashawn Pookie Powell 6'1 RS-FR 4.3pts, 2.3ast
SMU - (none)
Temple- (none)
Tulane- (none)
Tulsa- Stevie Repichowski 6'5 SO .9pts, .4rebs
*Micah Littlejohn 6'6 FR 4 gms
UCF- (none)
UConn- *Rakim Lubin 6'8 FR 5.9pts, 7.2rebs
USF- Dre'Kalo Clayton 6'6 RS-FR .9pts, 1.5rebs
Anthony Collins 6'1 RS-JR 7.1pts, 5.2ast, 2.6rebs, 1.5stl

* = new to list updated 4/2/15
This post was edited on 4/2 9:11 AM by ucf_71127

This post was edited on 4/2 11:11 PM by ucf_71127

 

[ucf_71127]

Forgo eligibility for draft

Houston Jherrod Stiggers 14.2pts (6th in AAC)



Possible players to enter draft:
Memphis Austin Nichols
UConn Amida Brimah
SMU Nic Moore
UConn Daniel Hamilton

 

[ucf_71127]

Here is a website that I use to view stats for our conference.
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/conferences/aac/2015-stats.html

There are some really interesting, in depth, stats that they include. One stat that I have been looking at is "PER" (player efficiency rating).

I thought it would be interesting to look at returning players in the AAC and add up the top 5 players for each team to see how much strength or quality (PER) each team has returning. Here are the teams in order with their accumulated total of their top 5 players.

*Note- I only included players that played 20 or more games. Seniors, early nba entrees, and transfers are not included. HS recruits, red-shirts, and new transfers have no stats.

Cinci 99.7
SMU 88.5
Memphis 88.3
ECU 86.4
UCF 82.3
Tulsa 81.9
UConn 80.3
Temple 77.4
Houston 72.9
Tulane 69.7
USF 58.0

This is what our team looks like with our top 5 PER:
Justin McBride 20.6
Staphon Blair 17.6
BJ Taylor 15.8
Adonys Henriquez 14.2
Brandon Goodwin 14.1
TOTAL 82.3

 

[ucf_71127]

2015-16 Returning Stat Leaders in AAC for UCF (not including graduates and transfers)

Minutes Played Per Game
1) Adonys Henriquez 35.0 mins
5) Brandon Goodwin 33.8
6) BJ Taylor 32.9

Scoring (per game)
6) BJ Taylor 12.8 pts
16) Adonys Henriquez10.8
18) Brandon Goodwin 10.2

Rebounds (per game)
13) Staphon Blair 5.2 rebs

Assists (per game)
3) Brandon Goodwin 4.2 ast
10) BJ Taylor 2.5
12) Adonys Henriquez 2.1
17) Daiquan Walker 1.8

Steals (per game)
6) Brandon Goodwin 1.2
17) BJ Taylor .9

Blocks (per game)
10) Staphon Blair 1.3
16) Justin McBride .9

True Shooting Percentage
1) Adonys Henriquez .584
12) Brandon Goodwin .503
14) BJ Taylor .496

Offensive Rebounding Percentage
4) Justin McBride 12.1
11) Staphon Blair 9.9

Defensive Rebounding Percentage
1) Justin McBride 24.1
15) Staphon Blair 14.4

Total Rebound Percentage
1) Justin McBride 18.6
10) Staphon Blair 12.2

Assist Percentage
4) Brandon Goodwin 26.9
9) Daiquan Walker 17.3
10) BJ Taylor 17.0

Steal Percentage
13) Brandon Goodwin 2.3

Block Percentage
5) Justin McBride 6.6
9) Staphon Blair 5.0

Turnover Percentage
1) BJ Taylor 8.7

Usage Percentage
2) Justin McBride 28.2
10) BJ Taylor 23.2

Offensive Rating
2) Adonys Henriquez 113.8
9) BJ Taylor 107.7
15) Brandon Goodwin 98.2

Defensive Rating
-none-

Win Shares Per 40 Mins
-none-