Football Outsiders stats have been somewhat weird for a long time, but they do allow for some interesting discussion and come to some really interesting conclusions.
Based on how UCF has played the first six weeks of the season, the only game we should have won was FIU. Yep, that's right FIU, not Furman.
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2015-central-florida-advanced-statistical-profile
Based on how we played the game, we had a win probability of 61% over FIU, vs. only 30% vs. Furman. Those are the highest two win probability games we played (or will play) all year.
UCF has a 29% chance of beating usf, with the games against the remaining opponents all having less than 15% chance of a victory. UCF has only a 2% chance of winning this week against Temple.
UCF is ranked 125th out of 127 in FBS, with only North Texas (who just lost 66-7 to an FCS team) and UTEP (who has actually won 2 games) below us.
Based on how UCF has played the first six weeks of the season, the only game we should have won was FIU. Yep, that's right FIU, not Furman.
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2015-central-florida-advanced-statistical-profile
Based on how we played the game, we had a win probability of 61% over FIU, vs. only 30% vs. Furman. Those are the highest two win probability games we played (or will play) all year.
UCF has a 29% chance of beating usf, with the games against the remaining opponents all having less than 15% chance of a victory. UCF has only a 2% chance of winning this week against Temple.
UCF is ranked 125th out of 127 in FBS, with only North Texas (who just lost 66-7 to an FCS team) and UTEP (who has actually won 2 games) below us.
