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All Aboard Florida - who's gonna ride this?

CommuterBob

Todd's Tiki Bar
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Aug 3, 2011
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Stuck in traffic
A recent report in the Sun-Sentinel released the findings of the financial study done for All-Aboard Florida. They estimate that by 2020, they will have over 5 million riders paying $11-$15 each way between Miami and FTL, or another $14-$18 each way from FTL to WPB, or even $90-$143 each way between Miami and Orlando. That's 20,000 riders per day - or about 20% more riders than Tri-Rail currently.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/broward/fl-all-aboard-florida-ridership-study-20150528-story.html

I have to seriously question this, especially considering a supposed libertarian was quoted in the article as saying the assumptions were "reasonable." Hardly.

Southwest Airlines used to have a route that went back and forth between MCO and FLL that ran like 6-8 times per day at like $50 each way. They no longer have this route at all.

I think these investors are getting duped. The state sure is, having given them over $400M in free land and facilities.
 
They still do it twice a day.
It would be good for all the Hispanics living in Orlando that are flying to their countries. They can take the train to MIA and save some money on the plane ticket. $90 to $140 is too much. The white vans do it for about $50 (door-to-door service).

The 4 hour drive/ride in train beats having to go to MCO at 5-6 a.m and then have a long lay over in MIA.
 
They still do it twice a day.
It would be good for all the Hispanics living in Orlando that are flying to their countries. They can take the train to MIA and save some money on the plane ticket. $90 to $140 is too much. The white vans do it for about $50 (door-to-door service).

The 4 hour drive/ride in train beats having to go to MCO at 5-6 a.m and then have a long lay over in MIA.
Nope. I just looked at the SWA website and tried to book MCO to FLL. Not available. Looked at their map view which allows you to pick the start city. Only other cities in FL that SWA flies to out of MCO is PCB and Pensacola. And I can't even book it as an option through Delta, not even to fly to ATL and change planes.
 
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LOL. Nearly $150 bucks a seat? I can drive from Orlando to Miami for $30 in gas in my truck and get there faster. A car could do it for $20 or less.
 
Spirit offers a round trip between MCO and FLL for $160. Total.

AA has a bunch of flights between OIA and MIA for about $350 round trip.
 
Didn't read

Quad-City-DJs-CMon-N-Ride-It-The-Train.jpg
 
Spirit offers a round trip between MCO and FLL for $160. Total.

AA has a bunch of flights between OIA and MIA for about $350 round trip.
Ive done the spirit to FTL from orlando...scariest flight of my life...but it was only 40 bucks 1 way...
 
LOL. Nearly $150 bucks a seat? I can drive from Orlando to Miami for $30 in gas in my truck and get there faster. A car could do it for $20 or less.
$150 + car rental or uber once you get there, because I'm sure whatever you are there for is not in walking distance.

Autonomous driving cars are on the horizon, especially autonomous taxis/uber. 10 years at the most, I think taxis (in autonomous friendly states like FL, CA, AZ) in 5 years. How long will it take to build this? It will be obsolete shortly after it opens.
 
LOL. Nearly $150 bucks a seat? I can drive from Orlando to Miami for $30 in gas in my truck and get there faster. A car could do it for $20 or less.
Not to mention that you can have your whole family in your truck for that.

If you go turnpike you can add like $15 in tolls, but that still puts you way under the $143 ticket. Thats just too much money to get the average person to consider the train service. I wonder how much Grey Hound would charge for the ride to Miami?
 
You can get a black car or limo for cheaper too. These people are insane if they think this is going to work.
 
How fast will it get you there? Some people will pay a premium to save a couple hours on the road.
 
How fast will it get you there? Some people will pay a premium to save a couple hours on the road.
According to the Article,

"The train's greatest appeal is that it would be 25 to 50 percent faster to take it to Orlando than drive a car, according to the report.
It would take trains 1 hour, 45 minutes to travel from West Palm Beach to Orlando, 2 hours, 20 minutes from Fort Lauderdale and 3 hours from Miami.
Under ideal conditions, the drive from Miami to Orlando takes about 3 hours and 20 minutes."

So it'll save you minutes, not hours. And by the time you drive to the airport, park, go through security, and wait for the train, you'll probably lose those minutes. And then you have to find a way to get from the station (or MCO) to where you really wanted to get to in the first place, further losing time.
 
According to the Article,

"The train's greatest appeal is that it would be 25 to 50 percent faster to take it to Orlando than drive a car, according to the report.
It would take trains 1 hour, 45 minutes to travel from West Palm Beach to Orlando, 2 hours, 20 minutes from Fort Lauderdale and 3 hours from Miami.
Under ideal conditions, the drive from Miami to Orlando takes about 3 hours and 20 minutes."

So it'll save you minutes, not hours. And by the time you drive to the airport, park, go through security, and wait for the train, you'll probably lose those minutes. And then you have to find a way to get from the station (or MCO) to where you really wanted to get to in the first place, further losing time.

How can they blatantly lie about the time difference? 3 hours and 3 hours and 20 minutes is a 10% difference. No one is paying that much for 20 minutes and if someone's time is worth more than the ticket price they'd likely be taking a black car service anyways for a little more money.
 
According to the Article,

"The train's greatest appeal is that it would be 25 to 50 percent faster to take it to Orlando than drive a car, according to the report.
It would take trains 1 hour, 45 minutes to travel from West Palm Beach to Orlando, 2 hours, 20 minutes from Fort Lauderdale and 3 hours from Miami.
Under ideal conditions, the drive from Miami to Orlando takes about 3 hours and 20 minutes."

But a car leaves from your driveway, when you're ready, and gets you exactly to your destination. A train leaves from someplace miles away, on a schedule that will likely have delays, and leaves you miles from your destination.

For me (with the airport about 1 hour away), even though actual air time is WAY less then drive time, it makes a lot of sense to drive vs fly. In this case the train is only marginally faster, even ignoring all the overhead.
 
How can they blatantly lie about the time difference? 3 hours and 3 hours and 20 minutes is a 10% difference. No one is paying that much for 20 minutes and if someone's time is worth more than the ticket price they'd likely be taking a black car service anyways for a little more money.
As I said, the investors are getting duped. Apparently, so are the writers at the Sun-Sentinel.
 
But a car leaves from your driveway, when you're ready, and gets you exactly to your destination. A train leaves from someplace miles away, on a schedule that will likely have delays, and leaves you miles from your destination.

For me (with the airport about 1 hour away), even though actual air time is WAY less then drive time, it makes a lot of sense to drive vs fly. In this case the train is only marginally faster, even ignoring all the overhead.
I agree. Even with the worst traffic I can get to Miami in about 4-4.5 hours by car. Factoring in time to park, TSA, boarding, flying, taxiing, unloading, and getting to that next mode of transportation, flying is longer than driving. The only thing it saves is aggravation, and that's not even all that much because I like driving.
 
3 hours MCO to MIA. It would save 4 hours of dealing with the drivers on I-95, have you seen how they drive down there?

In any case, I agree. They need to bring it down to $70-$80 for it to make sense.
Greyhound is $40 (Red Coach or Megabus may be cheaper and better)
 
The range is "90-143" but we're all throwing around $150 and comparing it to economy class flights, white vans and the cost of gas alone. Not exactly apples to apples.

That aside, one market would be business travelers. If I'm sending a guy down to Miami for a meeting, I don't reimburse him 30 bucks for gas, I reimburse him 50-something cents a mile or for a rental + fuel. That sounds like it would be the same price as the train ticket. And he'll get there faster and I can expect him to be productive en route.

The math changes if I'm sending a sales team or a even 2-3 employees for that same meeting. Not that companies wouldn't still do it anyway if it's a more luxurious option.

I have no idea if there are enough of these guys on the road and in the sky now to make it make sense. I also don't know how they'll get families on there if they don't have a really good rate for kids.

It's a little early to jump on the scam bandwagon. The state is cutting them a deal, but car companies make out pretty good when the state and feds build, expand and maintain roads, no?
 
Choo choo trains such a big govt tardo wet dream & Nazis were fans as well
The range is "90-143" but we're all throwing around $150 and comparing it to economy class flights, white vans and the cost of gas alone. Not exactly apples to apples.

That aside, one market would be business travelers. If I'm sending a guy down to Miami for a meeting, I don't reimburse him 30 bucks for gas, I reimburse him 50-something cents a mile or for a rental + fuel. That sounds like it would be the same price as the train ticket. And he'll get there faster and I can expect him to be productive en route.

The math changes if I'm sending a sales team or a even 2-3 employees for that same meeting. Not that companies wouldn't still do it anyway if it's a more luxurious option.

I have no idea if there are enough of these guys on the road and in the sky now to make it make sense. I also don't know how they'll get families on there if they don't have a really good rate for kids.

It's a little early to jump on the scam bandwagon. The state is cutting them a deal, but car companies make out pretty good when the state and feds build, expand and maintain roads, no?
This is entirely privately funded. The government was never going to fund this route, they asked for a privately financed, tax exempt loan from the government, but have said its not necessary for them to build it (and it seems likely to be denied).

Also, the article seems to be stating the AVERAGE ticket price will be between $93.80 to $143.46, with higher fares paid by business travelers and those traveling at specific times. Looking on Google Flights https://www.google.com/flights/#search;f=MCO;t=MIA,FLL,PBI;d=2015-06-19;r=2015-06-19;tt=o;s=0 , I picked a day in a couple weeks and there are 15 flights to Miami/Ft. Lauderdale from Orlando, and they average $165 (and thats leaving out first class upgrades, just average of cheapest ticket on each flight).

Also, All Aboard Florida has indicated many times they plan to include many amenities, including meal service, wifi, and other things in the ticket prices. Also, considering the connections to the airports, they could be planning on pushing it as a connection between the airport and the final destinations rather then taking an extra connecting flight.

And, while I know quite a few people forget about this fact, you have to reimburse about 50 cents a mile for travel because that IS the average total cost of roadtrips (not counting lost productivity). $30 obviously only covers gas, and does not cover wear and tear, tires, oil, repairs, tolls, insurance, etc. Based on that rate, this trip would be over $100 to do by car, but obviously you can put more people in the car to split the cost.

I have no idea if their estimates will be accurate, its hard to predict if they'll be able to become a leg of some connecting flights, but I do believe a lot of our international toursists do not want to rent a car, and will love being able to come to Miami, spend a few days at the beach and enjoying its amenities, and then taking the train up to Orlando to enjoy our tourist attractions before going home. And same for our business travelers with our conventions. It will create more trips between the destinations. And little to no public dollars are being used for it.

My roommate at UCF had an old car and didn't want to take it on road trips, and he took these flights down to south florida all the time.
 
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Lol. Orlando to Miami is not DC to Philly, NY, Boston. There are maybe a dozen people who make this trip multiple times a week. It will not make money and it will fail without the govt propping it up.
 
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My doubt is only that they think 20,000 people per day will ride it. At 16 trains per day total, that's 1200 people per train. That's gotta be a huge train.
 
My doubt is only that they think 20,000 people per day will ride it. At 16 trains per day total, that's 1200 people per train. That's gotta be a huge train.
Thats round trips... so it would be 600 per train
 
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