Guys, I
used to be a big Allegiant Air fan.
- One (1), single type MD-80 series
- Short legs, run their crews 7-8 hour/days, with 4-5 hours in flight, basically a part-time job -- flight crews only get paid when the door is shut
- They saved money by contracting out gate workers to the local airport, didn't have a lot of the booking and logistical costs of other airlines
- Even FAA Diamond rated maintenance crews at one point, they took those old MD-80 birds and took care of them
- Yeah, sometimes they had problems, and that meant you were flying 3+ hours later as they had to fly an aircraft in, if not the next day
- The pilot forums were very positive on Allegiant Air
- They were the most profitable airline ... 10% margins even during the era of high fuel prices with those older MD-80s, unheard of -- e.g., Southwest was typically 2-3% at best during the high energy costs of just 5 years ago
That has all changed. Why? Simple ...
- They got head of themselves and branched out to Hawaii and other destinations, with longer routes, lots of logistical issues they haven't solved
- ETOPS requirements and longer routes couldn't be met by the MD-80 series. They bought the 757 for Hawaii, but then had to go with another type (long story, 757 is virtually impossible to find second-hand now)
- Adding the A319/320 as a 3rd major type for non-Hawaii routes the MD-80 won't do. This along wouldn't be a bad move if they were going all A319 or all A320 and dropping the MD-80. But they're not, so ...
- Their parts inventory was bad enough with just one type, and now they have three (3) with a total of five (5) variants, and they don't really have a traditional hub model or location
- The longer routes started pushing their crews away from the 7-8 hour days with 4-5 hours in flight, to 12+ hour days with 7-8 hours in flight, not including maintenance delays -- where they don't get paid until the door is shut
- The pilot forums are heavily filled with union talk, trying to address the non-sense that Gallagher et al. hasn't addressed -- and I think it's valid!
Gallagher was stupid. I always thought he learned his lessons from ValuJet, but he hasn't. I would
not fly Allegiant today. I do not consider it safe. They literally got away from their niche. I should have known they were looking at doing stupid things when they flirted with flying out of MCO instead of SFB to compete with other carriers, thinking they'd get more people if they flew into MCO instead of SFB.
That said ...
The hub'n spoke model that the big airlines use has
not addressed costs, in fact, it tends to be more costly than just direct flights for operations -- despite what most believed. But this is why they have been consolidating, and building multi-hub networks with acquisitions. Which is why we now have less than 5 major airlines. Yes! We're back to pre-deregulation monopolies!
Prices are going up as a result of reduced competition. Most people who fly big carriers do so for the mileage plans, and they clearly want to continue to cater to those type of fliers. Leaving ...
JetBlue or Southwest when it comes to direct routes, with "budget" options, along with other, small "budget" startups that come'n go.
JetBlue has major issues getting into some airports (e.g., Atlanta). That will continue.
Southwest is really the only "budget" option these days to go just about anywhere from MCO -- at least if you hit their "Wanna Get Away" flights 3-6 weeks out. But they are not as cheap as AirTran was, mainly because they absorbed AirTran to take out the competition. You'll sometimes get a better deal on major carriers when it's a competitive airport, but the consolidation of the main carriers has removed a lot of competition, especially anywhere near their major hubs.
BTW, I don't know about JetBlue, but
Southwest has officially
stopped growing. They have pushed back their 737-MAX order by over 5 years, and they were Boeing's launch customer for the MAX (no longer)! Southwest has about 50 more 737-800 models being delivered, which replaces their final 737-300 models that the FAA is making them stop flying. So now, in 2023 (instead of in 2017), they will get the 737-MAX, which is now timed with some of their very first 737-700 models hitting their maximum cycles. I.e.,
Southwest is
not growing it's fleet and aircraft
until at least
2028.
Prices will be going up as a result over the next 5, if not 10 years, including flying JetBlue and Southwest. Yes, even if gas stays cheap, the lack of competition, and the limited growth in the "budget" sector means we're looking at a full decade of stagnant competition.
I fully expect Allegiant Air to be either bankrupt, or undergo a radical changeover. Let's just hope it doesn't take a ValuJet like tragedy and resulting reverse takeover of another airline to change their name ... like ValuJet buying AirTran did.
