Can a historically unpopular candidate win an election?
- Thread starter Crazyhole
- Start date
I did watch a Tim Pool clip on youtube this morning about "shy" Trump voters. It reminded me of a podcast I listened to a while back about Preference Falsification with prof Timur Kuran. Idea being the we've seen examples of people lying about preferences due to the public price of truth being too high to pay.
The question out there is are we going to see it again this time around or have pollsters accurately corrected for it this time around?
@Boosted87 addressed this I think when he was talking about appropriate sampling of white college educated voters vs non college educated voters.
fivethirtyeight.com
The question out there is are we going to see it again this time around or have pollsters accurately corrected for it this time around?
@Boosted87 addressed this I think when he was talking about appropriate sampling of white college educated voters vs non college educated voters.
Trump Supporters Aren’t ‘Shy,’ But Polls Could Still Be Missing Some Of Them
There’s this theory that won’t die. It goes something like this: Some unknown segment of President Trump’s support is too “shy” to admit they back him. Usually …
Tim pool clips showing up in your youtube algorithm means you've made some poor video watching decisions that most likely stem from going down a Joe Rogan rabbit hole of his sweaty debatelord pseudo intellectual guests. If you don't groom your algo better you're on the path to youtube thinking you want Alex Jones yelling at you about satanic pedophile cults.
Naw it means I was sent a Tim Pool clip. I have seen 2 clips this week though. Algo is all over the place. A mix of relaxing night rain, hiking vids, Lex Fridman, off grid home builds, Bret Weinstein, Joe Rogan clips and hilarious Andrew Shulz pod clips from his Flagrant 2 and Brilliant Idiots pods.
This is the correct answer. Take everything away and this election still comes down to the least likable POTUS in the history of polling (who beat another historically unliked candidate by a razor thin margin) against a candidate that people mostly like or are indifferent to.
That's pretty much what I felt like, but we are told that the only reason he won was because Hillary was the most unlikable candidate ever. So what we are left with is that a more unpopular candidate can win.
Probably true, because he will serve for less than one year.
Please, Hillary wasn’t unlikeable until she lost. Up until that point, Hillary was all over the place in public and there were tons of people openly showing support.
I think Trump was the less popular candidate but he didn't have a history of governing, so he was kind of a wildcard. EVERYBODY knew what they were getting with HRC, there was hope that we might get something better with Trump. Kinda like knowing that furniture is behind door #1, but taking your chance on door #2.
I strongly disagree with that. She spoke/did rallies in empty gymnasiums. The Bernie supporters hated her and ultimately, most of his base refused to vote for her after Deborah Wasserman Schultz and the DNC colluded against him. I have countless friends on the left who never could stand her—even from her days as First Lady. She is one of the most unlikable individuals in the history of political theater. It speaks volumes that trump whipped her in the EC.
Remember too that she would have lost her ass in the NY senate race to Rudy had he not dropped out at the last minute because of his sick wife. She’s had almost 30 years of people who think she completely sucks.
And I don’t care if she won the popular vote by 3 million. Means absolutely nothing in the end.
I concede to your point about the rallies. I just remember her being all over TV and women fawning all over her. Maybe it was the symbolism of her candidacy and not her.
I think you are misremembering it a bit. Yes, she was all over the place, but I think it was a forced narrative by the media. And it was kind of funny--she refused to be interviewed or do the Sunday-morning rounds on the various political shows in 2016. Meanwhile, Trump was either doing interviews by phone or video call on Meet the Press essentially every week.
And in terms of women fawning all over her--it's funny because I'd venture to say that there were as many (perhaps more) on the other side that hated what she represented.
Hillary and Trump had the two highest unfavorable ever recorded going into an election. But Trump's were worse than Hillary's, so if you go purely by that then yes a historically unpopular candidate can win if his opponent is also historically unpopular.
news.gallup.com
Interesting polling (I think it was WSJ/NBC poll) that just came out. On "if you are better off than you were 4 years ago" it's 50% yes 34% no. Should be good for Trump right? But then on the question "is the country better off today than four years ago" it was ~34% yes / 58% no.
Trump and Clinton Finish With Historically Poor Images
According to Gallup's "scalometer" ratings, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton remain the least-liked U.S. presidential candidates Gallup has ever polled on.
news.gallup.com
Interesting polling (I think it was WSJ/NBC poll) that just came out. On "if you are better off than you were 4 years ago" it's 50% yes 34% no. Should be good for Trump right? But then on the question "is the country better off today than four years ago" it was ~34% yes / 58% no.
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