After picking up big victories on Wednesday, 20-win seasons are certainly in range for both the UCF men's and women's basketball teams.
Johnny Dawkins' men gutted out a 71-69 road victory at Temple, their third consecutive win and second on the road following last Saturday's win at East Carolina. Katie Abrahamson-Henderson's women have been on a roll as winners of five straight, the latest a 56-51 road win at Tulane. That's impressive considering the Green Wave nearly upset No. 1 UConn a few days earlier.
Regardless of what happens in the final stretch, it's been quite the UCF debut for Dawkins and Abrahamson-Henderson, both of whom make a compelling case for Coach of the Year honors in the American.
While Danny White's hires earned universal praise, few thought the turnaround could happen so quickly given the sub-.500 fortunes of both teams a season ago (the men were 12-18 and 6-12 in the American, while the women were an abysmal 7-23 overall and 4-14 in the league). On top of that, the men are playing this season with just seven scholarship players.
With two games left in the regular season, the men are 18-10 and 9-7 in the AAC. The women, who will play one less regular season game than the men, sit at 18-9 overall and 8-6 in the conference.
To be in the discussion for 20 wins and a possible postseason berth is nothing short of remarkable.
Here's the remaining schedule:
UCF MBB (18-10, 9-7)
Sunday, Feb. 26 - vs. Cincinnati - 3 p.m.
Thursday, March 2 - at USF - 7 p.m.
Conference Tournament: March 9-12 in Hartford, Conn.
Outlook: At 9-7, the Knights are currently in sixth place in the standings, trailing UConn (9-6) and Memphis (8-6). The top five teams in the standings receive a first-round bye.
UConn, by winning both head-to-head contests against UCF this season, would hold any prospective tiebreaker. Memphis and UCF split the series, so any tiebreaker there would come down to best records against top teams.
The Tigers have a tough remaining stretch with upcoming games against the league's top three teams - SMU, Cincinnati, Houston - along with Tulane. Even if UCF only splits the final two between Cincinnati and USF, the Knights could still jump to fifth place should Memphis drop three of their last four.
UConn, which has won seven of their last nine games, has a tough remaining slate as well with SMU and Cincinnati still upcoming (plus East Carolina).
Should UCF manage to beat both Cincinnati and USF, given the tough remaining schedule for Memphis in particular, it's likely that would be good enough to secure at least fifth place. In that scenario, Memphis needs to go 2-2 or worse (UCF would have the tiebreaker with a win against Cincinnati).
To recap: If UCF goes 2-0, strong likelihood of a top-five finish though they'll need some help. If UCF goes 1-1, it's still possible, but Memphis likely needs to lose 3 of their last 4. If UCF goes 0-2, most likely not, unless Memphis goes 0-4 and Tulsa drops a couple more games too.
The possible reward for finishing No. 5? You would avoid playing the opening day, but your first game would be against the No. 4 seed in Friday's quarterfinals - likely host UConn.
UCF WBB (18-9, 8-6)
Saturday, Feb. 25 - vs. SMU - 2 p.m.
Monday, Feb. 27 - vs. Temple - 7 p.m.
Conference Tournament: March 3-6 in Uncasville, Conn.
Outlook: The Knights are currently in fourth place in the AAC and with one more win should be able to clinch a first-round bye, which goes to the top-five teams in the standings. SMU, whom UCF hosts on Saturday, is in a seventh-place tie at 6-8. Temple, who visits Orlando on Monday, sits at 11-3 in second place behind UConn. The Owls were ranked as high as No. 20 in this past week's polls.
A third-place finish is still possible. To catch and supplant 10-4 USF in third place - UCF would have the tie breaker - the Knights need to not only win their last two but have the Bulls drop their final two games at Tulsa and then home to UConn. The Huskies, like they've often done during their 100-plus game win streak, trounced USF in their first meeting with a 102-37 win in Hartford. The Bulls should be favored to win on Saturday at 4-10 Tulsa, but nothing is ever a given, especially on the road.
Why is a third-place finish important? Barring an early upset of epic proportions, that means you wouldn't have to face No. 1 seed UConn until the championship game.
Postseason Chances if UCF doesn't win their respective conference tournament?
Men:
Last night's win against Temple gave UCF a 13-place jump to No. 91 in the RPI.
http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_aac_Men.html
While UCF is probably a year or two away from realistically hoping to compete for a NCAA Tournament at-large bid, the NIT is becoming more of a possbility.
20 or 21 wins could be the sweet spot to have a chance, but it will come down to a numbers game. The NIT men's field is only 32 teams, and spots are promised to first-place conference finishers who fail to win their conference tournaments to recieve the NCAA bid.
In 2016, a record 15 auto-bids were handed out, leaving just 17 at-large NIT spots. The previous four years ranged from 10 to 13 auto-bids.
I've found two sites that project NIT teams, both of whom have Memphis making the field (which currently doesn't factor in possible auto-bids that squeeze teams out).
Both of these projections were done earlier this week.
DRatings.com has Memphis as a No. 6 seed
http://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/
NYCBuckets.com has Memphis at No. 8. It should be noted that most No. 7 and 8 seeds would likely be squeezed out by auto-bids. This site does list UCF among their "considered" teams.
http://www.nycbuckets.com/current-nit-bracketology/
As I chronicled above, pending a strong UCF finish, there's a solid chance UCF finishes ahead of Memphis in the league standings. Right now, UCF is rated higher in the RPI too (91 vs. 113).
There are so many moving pieces to the NIT when it comes to auto-bids. In my mind, UCF probably needs to beat Cincinnati on Sunday (and USF obviously) to bolster their chances. That would give UCF 20 wins entering the tournament, which could be an opening date against host UConn.
The CBI is always available, but that's if UCF is willing to participate. To host, it costs in upwards of $50,000 per game, though road travel is subsidized. In 2011, UCF hosted and won two CBI games vs. St. Bonaventure and Rhode Island that drew significantly lesser crowds than regular season games, then flew to Creighton on a CBI-arranged charter that was described as a "nightmare." The tournament organizers were unwilling to pay for standard jet travel, and then something happened with the original aircraft, forcing UCF to fly to halfway across the country to Omaha in turbo-prop, which is much, much slower. And this was on the DAY OF THE GAME. If memory serves, Orlando to Omaha on a jet should take about 2.5 hours and the turbo-prop took like 4-5 hours. Not to mention the uncomfortable smaller cabin. Yeah, UCF got beat by Creighton.
Women:
According to the latest "Bracketology" from ESPN's Charlie Creme, four AAC teams are projected to make the NCAA Tournament: UConn, Temple, USF and Tulane.
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology
UConn is UConn, No. 1. Temple and USF already have 21 wins and more importantly boast solid RPIs (Temple is 21 and USF 34). Tulane's RPI remains decent (54) even though they're 16-12 and 7-8 in the league. UCF's RPI is currently No. 103, which is even behind SMU (86). Overall, the AAC ranks fifth in conference RPI.
http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_aac_Women.html
But what if UCF wins the last two regular season games? I'm not sure how much of a jump they'd get in the RPI, but at that point they'd have resume-boosting wins against USF, Temple and Tulane and would be riding a seven-game winning streak into the conference tournament with opportunities to further enhance their profile.
I'm not an expert when it comes to the women's selection process, but I do see that the "last four teams" in Creme's bracket all have RPIs somewhere in the 50s. Right now, due to low RPI, UCF isn't even mentioned as a "bubble team." How much would they jump in the RPI if they won the last two regular season games, got a little help from Tulsa to finish in third place, then won two in the tournament before meeting UConn in the championship game? Assuming a loss to UConn (which would help the RPI just for the sake of playing), that would mean UCF pulled off a record of 9-1 in their final 10 games, often cited as one of the most important metrics in selecting tournament teams.
Though maybe it's a longshot, I think there's a chance.
Falling short of a miracle run into the NCAA Tournament, I think there's a very strong chance UCF makes the WNIT, which has a field of 64 teams (the men's field is only 32). Maybe UCF has already done enough, but you'd think WNIT becomes a shoe-in especially if they can get to 20 wins.
Johnny Dawkins' men gutted out a 71-69 road victory at Temple, their third consecutive win and second on the road following last Saturday's win at East Carolina. Katie Abrahamson-Henderson's women have been on a roll as winners of five straight, the latest a 56-51 road win at Tulane. That's impressive considering the Green Wave nearly upset No. 1 UConn a few days earlier.
Regardless of what happens in the final stretch, it's been quite the UCF debut for Dawkins and Abrahamson-Henderson, both of whom make a compelling case for Coach of the Year honors in the American.
While Danny White's hires earned universal praise, few thought the turnaround could happen so quickly given the sub-.500 fortunes of both teams a season ago (the men were 12-18 and 6-12 in the American, while the women were an abysmal 7-23 overall and 4-14 in the league). On top of that, the men are playing this season with just seven scholarship players.
With two games left in the regular season, the men are 18-10 and 9-7 in the AAC. The women, who will play one less regular season game than the men, sit at 18-9 overall and 8-6 in the conference.
To be in the discussion for 20 wins and a possible postseason berth is nothing short of remarkable.
Here's the remaining schedule:
UCF MBB (18-10, 9-7)
Sunday, Feb. 26 - vs. Cincinnati - 3 p.m.
Thursday, March 2 - at USF - 7 p.m.
Conference Tournament: March 9-12 in Hartford, Conn.
Outlook: At 9-7, the Knights are currently in sixth place in the standings, trailing UConn (9-6) and Memphis (8-6). The top five teams in the standings receive a first-round bye.
UConn, by winning both head-to-head contests against UCF this season, would hold any prospective tiebreaker. Memphis and UCF split the series, so any tiebreaker there would come down to best records against top teams.
The Tigers have a tough remaining stretch with upcoming games against the league's top three teams - SMU, Cincinnati, Houston - along with Tulane. Even if UCF only splits the final two between Cincinnati and USF, the Knights could still jump to fifth place should Memphis drop three of their last four.
UConn, which has won seven of their last nine games, has a tough remaining slate as well with SMU and Cincinnati still upcoming (plus East Carolina).
Should UCF manage to beat both Cincinnati and USF, given the tough remaining schedule for Memphis in particular, it's likely that would be good enough to secure at least fifth place. In that scenario, Memphis needs to go 2-2 or worse (UCF would have the tiebreaker with a win against Cincinnati).
To recap: If UCF goes 2-0, strong likelihood of a top-five finish though they'll need some help. If UCF goes 1-1, it's still possible, but Memphis likely needs to lose 3 of their last 4. If UCF goes 0-2, most likely not, unless Memphis goes 0-4 and Tulsa drops a couple more games too.
The possible reward for finishing No. 5? You would avoid playing the opening day, but your first game would be against the No. 4 seed in Friday's quarterfinals - likely host UConn.
UCF WBB (18-9, 8-6)
Saturday, Feb. 25 - vs. SMU - 2 p.m.
Monday, Feb. 27 - vs. Temple - 7 p.m.
Conference Tournament: March 3-6 in Uncasville, Conn.
Outlook: The Knights are currently in fourth place in the AAC and with one more win should be able to clinch a first-round bye, which goes to the top-five teams in the standings. SMU, whom UCF hosts on Saturday, is in a seventh-place tie at 6-8. Temple, who visits Orlando on Monday, sits at 11-3 in second place behind UConn. The Owls were ranked as high as No. 20 in this past week's polls.
A third-place finish is still possible. To catch and supplant 10-4 USF in third place - UCF would have the tie breaker - the Knights need to not only win their last two but have the Bulls drop their final two games at Tulsa and then home to UConn. The Huskies, like they've often done during their 100-plus game win streak, trounced USF in their first meeting with a 102-37 win in Hartford. The Bulls should be favored to win on Saturday at 4-10 Tulsa, but nothing is ever a given, especially on the road.
Why is a third-place finish important? Barring an early upset of epic proportions, that means you wouldn't have to face No. 1 seed UConn until the championship game.
Postseason Chances if UCF doesn't win their respective conference tournament?
Men:
Last night's win against Temple gave UCF a 13-place jump to No. 91 in the RPI.
http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_aac_Men.html
While UCF is probably a year or two away from realistically hoping to compete for a NCAA Tournament at-large bid, the NIT is becoming more of a possbility.
20 or 21 wins could be the sweet spot to have a chance, but it will come down to a numbers game. The NIT men's field is only 32 teams, and spots are promised to first-place conference finishers who fail to win their conference tournaments to recieve the NCAA bid.
In 2016, a record 15 auto-bids were handed out, leaving just 17 at-large NIT spots. The previous four years ranged from 10 to 13 auto-bids.
I've found two sites that project NIT teams, both of whom have Memphis making the field (which currently doesn't factor in possible auto-bids that squeeze teams out).
Both of these projections were done earlier this week.
DRatings.com has Memphis as a No. 6 seed
http://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/
NYCBuckets.com has Memphis at No. 8. It should be noted that most No. 7 and 8 seeds would likely be squeezed out by auto-bids. This site does list UCF among their "considered" teams.
http://www.nycbuckets.com/current-nit-bracketology/
As I chronicled above, pending a strong UCF finish, there's a solid chance UCF finishes ahead of Memphis in the league standings. Right now, UCF is rated higher in the RPI too (91 vs. 113).
There are so many moving pieces to the NIT when it comes to auto-bids. In my mind, UCF probably needs to beat Cincinnati on Sunday (and USF obviously) to bolster their chances. That would give UCF 20 wins entering the tournament, which could be an opening date against host UConn.
The CBI is always available, but that's if UCF is willing to participate. To host, it costs in upwards of $50,000 per game, though road travel is subsidized. In 2011, UCF hosted and won two CBI games vs. St. Bonaventure and Rhode Island that drew significantly lesser crowds than regular season games, then flew to Creighton on a CBI-arranged charter that was described as a "nightmare." The tournament organizers were unwilling to pay for standard jet travel, and then something happened with the original aircraft, forcing UCF to fly to halfway across the country to Omaha in turbo-prop, which is much, much slower. And this was on the DAY OF THE GAME. If memory serves, Orlando to Omaha on a jet should take about 2.5 hours and the turbo-prop took like 4-5 hours. Not to mention the uncomfortable smaller cabin. Yeah, UCF got beat by Creighton.
Women:
According to the latest "Bracketology" from ESPN's Charlie Creme, four AAC teams are projected to make the NCAA Tournament: UConn, Temple, USF and Tulane.
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology
UConn is UConn, No. 1. Temple and USF already have 21 wins and more importantly boast solid RPIs (Temple is 21 and USF 34). Tulane's RPI remains decent (54) even though they're 16-12 and 7-8 in the league. UCF's RPI is currently No. 103, which is even behind SMU (86). Overall, the AAC ranks fifth in conference RPI.
http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_aac_Women.html
But what if UCF wins the last two regular season games? I'm not sure how much of a jump they'd get in the RPI, but at that point they'd have resume-boosting wins against USF, Temple and Tulane and would be riding a seven-game winning streak into the conference tournament with opportunities to further enhance their profile.
I'm not an expert when it comes to the women's selection process, but I do see that the "last four teams" in Creme's bracket all have RPIs somewhere in the 50s. Right now, due to low RPI, UCF isn't even mentioned as a "bubble team." How much would they jump in the RPI if they won the last two regular season games, got a little help from Tulsa to finish in third place, then won two in the tournament before meeting UConn in the championship game? Assuming a loss to UConn (which would help the RPI just for the sake of playing), that would mean UCF pulled off a record of 9-1 in their final 10 games, often cited as one of the most important metrics in selecting tournament teams.
Though maybe it's a longshot, I think there's a chance.
Falling short of a miracle run into the NCAA Tournament, I think there's a very strong chance UCF makes the WNIT, which has a field of 64 teams (the men's field is only 32). Maybe UCF has already done enough, but you'd think WNIT becomes a shoe-in especially if they can get to 20 wins.
