COLUMN: Cowboys, the Cosmos, and the Colley Matrix

[ucf1]

Can UCF finally beat a ranked P5 team at home?

Boy did we need that. A little slump buster never hurt anybody. Sometimes when you’re in a drought, while the universe feels like it’s against you, you have to go back to a familiar well to satiate your thirst and get things moving. It was fifty days since we last notched a game result in the proper column. While it wasn’t the prettiest win, it was a WIN. Eat shit Cincinnati. Also completely removed the Bearcats from bowl season consideration. Now we focus efforts on reaching a bowl ourselves and salvaging some semblance of a successful year in our Big 12 debut.

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[Central Floridave]

I've seen a few 'upset special' predictions online the past couple days.
last week I was going into the Cinci game predicting we lose.

For Saturday's game I'm predicting we win on a last second field goal by Boomer.

Variables for me:
Okie-State is coming in over confident and on an emotional ride after beating Oklahoma and a 5 game winning streak. How can they lose to lowly UCF?
They have to travel.
Everyone knows they coming in wanting to run the ball. I'm sure they will be successful at that.
But, Weather. It was 38F degrees in Stillwater this morning. Not sure of the past temps but they are coming into Orlando where the predicted High is 87F degrees. Feel like temp prob will hover around 100F.
They going to be hyped during team warmups and the heat will wear on them. Are they smart enough to stay hydrated, probably, but still wears on you.
I hate to say Weather will be a factor but it has to be. NE winds at 15mph possible rain at 30 percent chance.
This is going to be a ground and pound rushing attack for both teams. The better conditioned team will win it in the 4th quarter and I'm betting UCF is that team with a last minute Field goal by Boomer for the win.

Preseason I predicted Oklahoma State one of the losses for UCF. They coming in with a senior laden offensive line. However, I've read they have some injuries on the line. Also, their great RB Ollie got banged up some last week and ran for 29 carries. That is a lot of carries. He's more than likely going to be juiced up in first quarter but hoping the wear and tear, plus the heat/humidity wears on him and makes him inefficient by the 4th quarter.

Or course, this is all speculation, but the vegas oddsmakers, the espn projector, plus a couple online experts predicting UCF with the upset has me believing we will win.

Go Knights!