Commercial Mortgage Delinquency

[fried-chicken]

Hotel: 11.49% (from 2% in May)

Retail: 7.86% (from 3.82%)

Mixed use: 4.17% (from 0.95%)

Office: 1.92% (from 1.39%)

Industrial: 0.67% (from 0.28%)

Multifamily: 0.59% (from 0.41%)

Worth noting that this is after the "reopen" we have serious issues right now. None of this is caused by shutdowns, its consumer confidence. Until we start to see recovery this will only get worse.

 

[NinjaKnight]

Have you tried just calling the pandemic a hoax?

 

[DaShuckster]

None of this is caused by shutdowns, its consumer confidence.

Consumer Confidence??!?

You mean we can't just ignore the virus and kick-start the economy? Who knew?

 

[Crazyhole]

I said this was going to happen 3 months ago. We are entering a depression.

 

[UCFKnight85]

It's almost as if the prospect of sending people to sit at home for months, at any given time, in turn creating historic unemployment, is a hit to consumer confidence.

But it's not the shut downs.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

It's almost as if the prospect of sending people to sit at home for months, at any given time, in turn creating historic unemployment, is a hit to consumer confidence.

But it's not the shut downs.

I’d say it’s the virus more than the shutdowns, but the shutdowns probably ingrained a bit of “this is something to take serious” into many people so I can see where you are coming from.

 

[fried-chicken]

It's almost as if the prospect of sending people to sit at home for months, at any given time, in turn creating historic unemployment, is a hit to consumer confidence.

But it's not the shut downs.

There is no economic recovery while the virus is active. We did a poor job in our response. The entire EU has fewer cases per day than the state of Florida at this point. Thats why they get to recover while our people will maintain low consumer confidence.

 

[DaShuckster]

It's almost as if the prospect of sending people to sit at home for months, at any given time, in turn creating historic unemployment, is a hit to consumer confidence.

But it's not the shut downs.

Unemployment vs Shutdowns? Gee, which one is causing the big hit to consumer confidence?

I know this flies in the face of chud logic, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the lack of consumer confidence responsible for tanking the economy has to do with a pandemic virus that as yet has no cure. Until we have a handle on the virus, the economy ain't doing diddily-squat no matter how much Trump and his Republican Governors push the issue.

 

[firm_bizzle]

This will magically work itself out.

 

[NinjaKnight]

This will magically work itself out.

By Easter

 

[Crazyhole]

Still fighting over what was. I hope you guys are all at least kind of looking towards what's going to happen and preparing

 

[goodknightfl]

There is no economic recovery while the virus is active. We did a poor job in our response. The entire EU has fewer cases per day than the state of Florida at this point. Thats why they get to recover while our people will maintain low consumer confidence.

Well I guess it is settled then, there will never be an economic recovery. There is very unlikely to ever be a cure, and the virus will be with us 50+ years from now.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

 

[Knight_Classes_begin_7pm]

There is no economic recovery while the virus is active. We did a poor job in our response. The entire EU has fewer cases per day than the state of Florida at this point. Thats why they get to recover while our people will maintain low consumer confidence.

Like a normal leader would have, frump should have done the right thing in December 2019. Instead he hid the whole virus pandemic happening, and said it will go away when the warm weather comes. Or how about when he said it was no worse than a cold. If frump did the right thing, we'd probably be like Europe heading in the right direction. Frump and Desantis are losers!

 

[Crazyhole]

Like a normal leader would have, frump should have done the right thing in December 2019. Instead he hid the whole virus pandemic happening, and said it will go away when the warm weather comes. Or how about when he said it was no worse than a cold. If frump did the right thing, we'd probably be like Europe heading in the right direction. Frump and Desantis are losers!

What should trump have done in december?

 

[UCFKnight85]

What should trump have done in december?

Lock down the entire nation (a power he does not have) to combat a virus that had not even been identified yet by China or the WHO.

 

[Crazyhole]

32% of residential mortgages are delinquent this month.

 

[fried-chicken]

32% of residential mortgages are delinquent this month.

I dont know anyone in my area thats lost a job so I imagine this is really localized in some areas over others. Thats not good because it means local banks there will carry the brunt of delinquencies.

 

[Crazyhole]

I dont know anyone in my area thats lost a job so I imagine this is really localized in some areas over others. Thats not good becayse it means local banks there will carry the brunt of delinquencies.

Localized, but spread throughout the country. Prior to the 08 crash, nationally we were at less than half of this level and that took down the global banking industry.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

I dont know anyone in my area thats lost a job so I imagine this is really localized in some areas over others. Thats not good becayse it means local banks there will carry the brunt of delinquencies.

Low skill low wage service industry jobs took the brunt of the layoffs. It doesn't help that the jobs are easily replaceable and a company can terminate those positions without cause and fill them later very easily once the virus passes. Some of the CARES bill was supposed to address this. The issue is going to be the job market tightening up in the short term.

 

[fried-chicken]

Localized, but spread throughout the country. Prior to the 08 crash, nationally we were at less than half of this level and that took down the global banking industry.

Pockets of collapse is the worst scenario. If this was spread evenly banks could have a chance at surviving it. We also dont know how many of these delinquencies are just people being opportunists. Banks are supposed to offer deferment under the cares act. Could be a portion of that number is taking advantage of the program. Could be a bunch of AirBNBs that havent been rented too.

 

[Crazyhole]

Pockets of collapse is the worst scenario. If this was spread evenly banks could have a chance at surviving it. We also dont know how many of these delinquencies are just people being opportunists. Banks are supposed to offer deferment under the cares act. Could be a portion of that number is taking advantage of the program. Could be a bunch of AirBNBs that havent been rented too.

It might help local banks, but the derivative market is where the actual collapse happens. Lehman Brothers is a perfect example of that.