2018 Conference Previews: American
SEASON PREVIEWAaron Fitt - January 30, 2018
What’s included:
• Projected order of finish
• Preseason awards
• Top Prospects ($)
• Impact Freshmen ($)
• Team-by-team breakdowns ($)
Projected Standings
Bold indicates 2017 regional team, and records are from 2017. Teams are listed in order of projected 2018 finish.
Conference Overall
Houston 15-9 42-21
East Carolina 7-17 32-28
Connecticut 14-10 33-25
UCF 15-9 40-22
Wichita State* 10-11 28-30
South Florida 14-10 42-19
Memphis 8-16 30-29
Tulane 13-11 27-31
Cincinnati 10-14 28-30
*Conference record in MVC
Projected Regional Teams (4): Houston, East Carolina, Connecticut, UCF
Player of the Year: Greyson Jenista, OF, Wichita State
Pitcher of the Year: Tim Cate, LHP, Connecticut
Freshman of the Year: Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina
Top Prospects/Freshmen
Top Prospects, 2018 Draft
1 Shane McClanahan LHP South Florida
2 Tim Cate LHP Connecticut
3 Greyson Jenista OF Wichita State
4 Alec Bohm 3B/1B Wichita State
5 Dwanya Williams-Sutton OF East Carolina
6 Jonathan Bowlan RHP Memphis
7 Codi Heuer RHP Wichita State
8 Grant Witherspoon OF Tulane
9 Trey Cumbie LHP Houston
10 Zac Susi C Connecticut
11 JJ Montgomery RHP UCF
12 Andrew Perez LHP South Florida
13 Bryce Tucker LHP UCF
14 Joe Davis 1B Houston
15 Rylan Thomas* 1B UCF
16 Tyler Webb OF Memphis
17 Jordan Spicer RHP UCF
18 Cooper Coldiron SS Houston
19 Riley Cabral RHP Memphis
20 A.J. Bumpass OF Cincinnati
21 Thad Ward RHP UCF
22 PJ Poulin LHP Connecticut
23 Brody Wofford OF UCF
24 Chase Gardner LHP Connecticut
25 Chris Holba RHP East Carolina
26 Grayson Padgett OF Houston
27 Jake Washer C East Carolina
28 Ryan Green RHP Tulane
29 Ray Alejo OF UCF
30 Sam Lanier RHP East Carolina
31 Garrett Zech OF South Florida
32 Cre Finfrock RHP UCF
33 Will McAffer RHP Tulane
34 Ronnie Rossomando RHP Connecticut
35 Chris Chatfield OF South Florida
36 Dayton Dugas OF Wichita State
37 John Toppa OF Connecticut
38 Cam Alldred LHP Cincinnati
39 Manny Rodriguez SS Cincinnati
40 Joe Genord 1B/C South Florida
Top Prospects, 2019 Draft
1 Trey Benton RHP East Carolina
2 Jake Agnos LHP East Carolina
3 Mason Feole LHP Connecticut
4 Spencer Brickhouse OF East Carolina
5 Carter Henry RHP Houston
6 Alec Trela SS/3B Memphis
7 Anthony Prato SS Connecticut
8 Jared Triolo 3B Houston
9 Fred Villareal RHP Houston
10 Joe Sheridan LHP UCF
11 Keagon Gillies RHP Tulane
12 Alex Segal LHP Wichita State
13 Lael Lockhart OF/LHP Houston
14 Collin Sullivan RHP South Florida
15 Jake Wallace RHP Connecticut
16 Brayson Hurdsman LHP Houston
17 Chris Winkel 1B/OF Connecticut
18 Sal Gozzo SS Tulane
19 D.J. Roberts RHP South Florida
20 Tyler Smith RHP East Carolina
21 Tommy Barnhouse RHP Wichita State
22 Reese Robinson RHP Cincinnati
23 Chase Solesky RHP Tulane
24 Jacob Katzfey OF Wichita State
25 Nathan Kroger RHP Cincinnati
26 Dallas Beaver C/DH UCF
27 Jace Mercer SS/2B Cincinnati
28 Landon Kelly RHP Memphis
29 Preston Snavely RHP Wichita State
30 Bryant Packard OF East Carolina
Impact Freshmen
1 Gavin Williams RHP East Carolina
2 Ron Brown 1B/DH Houston
3 Alec Burleson 1B/LHP East Carolina
4 Graham Hoffman 3B/SS/RHP South Florida
5 Dalton Wingo OF UCF
6 Drew Minter OF Houston
7 Alex Segal LHP Wichita State
8 Joe Simeone RHP Connecticut
9 Griffin Bernardo 3B UCF
10 Liam Eddy RHP Wichita State
11 Christian Fedko INF Connecticut
12 Jack Sinclair RHP UCF
13 Ben Brooks SS Memphis
14 Paxton Wallace RHP/INF Wichita State
15 Colby Dunlop RHP Connecticut
16 Josh Bates RHP Tulane
17 Seth Caddell C East Carolina
18 Garrett Schoenle LHP Cincinnati
19 Tyler Mettetal LHP/1B Memphis
20 Garrett Kocis RHP/3B Wichita State
Notebook
The American Athletic Conference is consistently one of the most competitive, tightly bunched leagues in college baseball. In the American’s first four seasons, a different team has finished as the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament each year. Four teams finished within one game of first place last year, with a fifth team two games back. That logjam should only intensify with the addition of Wichita State, the longtime Missouri Valley Conference power that now brings its most talented team in years to the AAC.
Projected Regional Teams
• For an in-depth report on No. 24 Houston, read our Top 25 Breakdown on the Cougars.
• East Carolina carried sky-high expectations into last season, bringing back a senior-laden roster from a team that came within one win of Omaha in 2016. Injuries and underpeformance conspired to torpedo the Pirates, who dropped 10 of 11 games midway through the season en route to a stunning last-place finish in the regular season, though they rallied to reach the AAC tournament title game. But when the dust settled, ECU found itself outside the NCAA tournament, prompting plenty of offseason self-reflection and leaving a roster hungry for redemption. This should be a balanced club with an exciting blend of power, speed and athletic defenders in the lineup, and a deeper pitching staff than the Pirates have had in years. Having Jr. OF Dwanya Williams-Sutton healthy again will make a big difference; he hit .354 and slugged .545 as a freshman but was limited to 32 games as a sophomore last spring due to a torn ligament in his thumb, which hindered him even when he was playing. Very physical and athletic at 6-foot-1, 220 pounds, Williams-Sutton offers a big-time combination of righthanded power and speed, and he’ll help anchor a fearsome heart of the order. He’ll be joined in the middle of the lineup by sophomore first baseman/DH Spencer Brickhouse (.310/.385/.513, 10 HR), a 6-foot-4, 220-pound behemoth with light-tower power from the left side. ECU will get additional pop from catcher Jake Washer, corner outfielder Chandler Jenkins and third baseman Connor Litton, who all have physical frames that fit right in with the other mashers in this lineup. Litton, a transfer from Cowley County (Kan.) CC, has a strong 6-foot-3 frame and the ability to drive the ball out of the park from the right side, making him the favorite for the job at the hot corner. Junior shortstop Turner Brown and second baseman Brady Lloyd will form a very slick, reliable double-play tandem, and ECU has a pair of center fielders who can really run in Dusty Baker and Drew Henrickson.
Sophomores Trey Benton and Jake Agnos should form a dynamite one-two punch atop the rotation, with Jr. RHP Chris Holba and So. RHP Tyler Smith giving the Pirates two more very good starting options. Benton’s calling card is a bowling ball sinker that can touch 93-94, and he has developed a much better breaking ball to go with his quality changeup. Agnos, an aggressive lefty, stood out in the Cape Cod League for his ability to pitch off his 89-93 fastball that touched 94 with good life and deception. His 78-80 changeup and 75-78 downer curve are also solid offerings, and most encouragingly, he is learning to reduce his walk rate, which was his primary objective over the summer. Holba, another Cape League alumnus, features an 88-92 sinker with good life, a changeup that was his best pitch at times last year and a good slider. And Smith blossomed as a sinker/slider specialist this fall, to go along with a changeup that was already a good pitch. Blue-chip freshman Gavin Williams might develop into a frontline ace before his college career is done, but in the short term he looks like a strong candidate to anchor the back of the bullpen, where he can attack hitters with a 90-95 fastball. Jr. RHPs Sam Lanier and Matt Bridges give the Pirates two very experienced bullpen veterans with good stuff — Lanier can reach 94 with an improved breaking ball, and Bridges relies on a putaway slider. Finally, expect freshman two-way talent Alec Burleson to make a big impact in the bullpen as well as in the lineup — he led the team in RBIs this fall and also showed off advanced feel for a quality three-pitch mix as a lefty on the mound.
• Connecticut just missed out on regionals last year despite a 14-10 record in the No. 4 RPI conference and a No. 38 RPI. Now the Huskies are determined to take control of their own destiny in 2018, so they don’t wind up sweating on Memorial Day once again. There are some players who still need to prove themselves, but there are also some established winners returning from last year, and some exciting high-end talent. It starts, of course, with junior lefthander Tim Cate, who has a legitimate shot at being drafted in the first round come June. Cate was limited by injury early last season but finished with a solid 4-3, 3.33 line in 12 starts, then earned a spot on Team USA for the second summer in a row. With his trademark wipeout power curveball, Cate misses bats as well as any pitcher in the country — he has 203 strikeouts in 158 career innings. He’s gotten his wiry 6-foot frame into the best shape of his life, and he pitched comfortably at 90-92 and bumped 93 with the national team. He’s also worked hard to improve his changeup, giving him another weapon to use against righties. He’ll form a dynamite one-two punch atop the rotation with sophomore Mason Feole (7-4, 3.38), an aggressive, high-energy lefty with an 89-92 fastball that has bumped 94, a quality changeup and a big-breaking curve that has come along nicely for him. The favorite for the Sunday spot is Jr. LHP Chase Gardner, a 6-foot-6 ox with good angle on his fastball, which can range from 87-93. He also mixes in a sweepy 75-78 slurve and has some feel for a splitter. Between LHP PJ Poulin and RHPs Ronnie Rossomando, Joe Simeone, Jake Wallace and Colby Dunlop, UConn has a very exciting collection of power arms in the bullpen, all of whom can touch 93 or better. This has a chance to be one of the most dominant bullpens in the country if everything comes together.
UConn’s two best position players occupy the two most important spots on the diamond: catcher and shortstop. Jr. C Zac Susi has a chance to play his way into the top three rounds next June after boosting his stock with a standout summer in the Cape League. He has a nice, compact lefthanded swing and showed the ability to drive the ball to all fields with regularity in the Cape. He’s also an advanced blocker and receiver with an above-average arm, and he’s a coach’s son with a good mind for the game. So. SS Anthony Prato (.304/.388/.376) is a standout defender at short with superb baseball IQ, smooth actions and very good range. He’ll be the catalyst atop the lineup, and he’s starting to drive the ball with more authority as well. UConn has a number of speedy athletes around Prato who can help push the action. The fastest of the lot is Jr. OF John Toppa, who ran a 6.56-second 60-yard dash on scout day and has been clocked as fast as 6.33 this fall. After breaking out of a nasty early-season slump, Toppa came on strong offensively down the stretch and in the Cape, and he’s an obvious breakout candidate in 2018. So is sophomore Chris Winkel, a versatile athlete whose above-average speed plays in center field, though he’s a standout defender at first base. He also has a sweet lefthanded swing with emerging power. Freshman Christian Fedko is one of several newcomers who should make an impact in the lineup; he oozes confidence but has the innate hitting ability to back up his swagger, and he’s making progress defensively. He could compete for time at second or third. Juco transfers Mike Woodworth, Thad Phillips and Matt Bonvicini should also compete for playing time, giving the Huskies some positional depth.
• Greg Lovelady made a big splash in his first season as head coach at UCF, taking the Knights from last place in 2016 to first place in 2017, when they reached the 40-win mark overall and earned a trip to regionals. The Knights experienced significant turnover in the offseason, losing 13 seniors and five players to the draft, but Lovelady thinks the talent level is even higher than it was a year ago thanks to a robust recruiting class headlined by impact junior-college transfers. One of those transfers, RHP JJ Montgomery, could step right into the Friday starter role thanks to a power three-pitch repertoire headlined by a heavy 90-94 sinker that spiked to 95-97 at times in the fall. Fellow transfer Jordan Spicer should also compete for a starting role thanks to a low-90s heater that bumps 94 and a power breaking ball. That duo fortifies a pitching staff loaded with a combination of intriguing power arms and polished strike-throwers. Fourth-year Jr. RHP Chris Williams (5-4, 2.65) is a mature veteran with advanced command, and So. LHP Joe Sheridan (10-4, 3.25) has tightened up his secondary stuff since last spring, giving him more weapons to go with a high-80s fastball he locates well. Williams and Sheridan should also work as starers, while Jr. LHP Bryce Tucker (2-2, 1.66, 9 SV) returns to anchor the bullpen after a strong summer with Team USA. Tucker can reach 93 with good deception and decent secondary stuff, and he’s a dogged competitor who retains his poise in tight spots. Jr. RHP Thad Ward (4-0, 2.29) joins Tucker to form a potentially dominant duo at the back of the ‘pen. Ward can run his fastball up to 95 and made strides with his secondary stuff in the fall.
First baseman Rylan Thomas (.303 with 14 HR last year) earned freshman All-America honors last spring and is back to anchor UCF’s largely overhauled lineup. Thomas is one of the AAC’s top power hitters and has improved his approach and pitch recognition since last spring. Another returnee, Jr. 2B Matthew Mika, also opened eyes in the fall, and the Knights are counting on him to provide a spark atop the lineup thanks to his advanced bat-handling skills and speed on the basepaths (25 SB in 27 tries last year). Look for juco transfers Ray Alejo, Brody Wofford and Tyler Osik to make big impacts in the outfield. Alejo brings premium speed to center field, and Wofford (an unsigned 13th-round pick) has a sweet lefthanded swing with some pop and athleticism. Osik is a mature righthanded hitter with power potential and the ability to play a corner outfield spot or third base. Wiry-strong, athletic Fr. OF Dalton Wingo and physical, disciplined Fr. 3B Griffin Bernardo also figure to be key contributors early in their careers. So while the Knights have plenty of players who need to establish themselves at the Division I level, their upside is very exciting.
Keep an eye on …
• Wichita State ruled the Missouri Valley Conference with an iron fist for more than two decades, making seven trips to the College World Series between 1982 and 1996 and winning the national title in 1989. The program remained a contender throughout the first decade of the new century, but it has made just one trip to regionals this decade — in 2013. Todd Butler took over for Gene Stephenson as head coach the next year, but it’s taken him some time to re-energize the program, which has posted three straight losing seasons. However, the Shockers have their most talented, most experienced team of the Butler era in 2018, their first year as a member of the American. The roster is headlined by a pair of potential first-round picks in Jr. OF Greyson Jenista (.320/.413/.509, 9 HR) and Jr. 3B Alec Bohm (.305/.385/.519, 11 HR), the co-recipients of D1Baseball’s 2017 Summer Breakout Prospect award after both starred in the Cape Cod League. Both are big, physical sluggers with premium power potential and the ability to hit for average. Jenista played mostly first base his first two years at Wichita, but he showed off above-average speed and solid instincts in center field in the Cape, and he’s slated to play the position this spring as well. Butler says Jr. OF Dayton Dugas (.206/.268/.298) has more raw power than both of them, and if he can harness that ability, the Shockers could have one of the nation’s most fearsome trios in the heart of the order.
Wichita State also brings back three mature veterans up the middle in Sr. SS Trey Vickers, R-Jr. 2B Jordan Boyer and Sr. C Gunnar Troutwine, a trio that should anchor a strong defense and provide consistent, competitive at-bats. Juco transfer Mason O’Brien brings additional lefthanded pop to the first base spot, while athletic So. OF Jacob Katzfey and sweet-swinging Jr. DH Luke Ritter are breakout candidates after strong summers in the Florida League and California Collegiate League, respectively. Speaking of breakouts, Jr. RHP Codi Heuer looks primed to make the leap to legitimate Friday night ace after spending the summer lifting weights and adding strength. That work paid off this fall, when he ran his fastball up to 97 mph and flashed an above-average changeup; he was 92-95 in his first outing of the spring practice season, and if his breaking ball continues to improve, he has high-round-pick potential. Redshirt freshman LHP Alex Segal is another pick to click — the Shockers expected him to be their Saturday guy a year ago, but he missed the season after having his elbow scoped. He’s healthy again now, showing an 88-93 fastball and putaway curve. Six-foot-5 righties Preston Snavely and Connor Lungwitz both command 88-90 fastballs and have the look of innings-eating starters as well. So. RHP Tommy Barnhouse and Sr. RHP Chandler Sanburn both work at 91-93 with quality sliders, and they’ll be counted upon to anchor the bullpen. The pitching remains something of a question mark; there’s a lot of room for improvement, but Butler is cautiously optimistic that his staff is ready to make a jump in pitching coach Mike Steele’s second season in Wichita.
• South Florida made two regionals in three years under Mark Kingston, capped by a 42-win campaign in 2017, the program’s most victories since 1996. Kingston left for South Carolina after the season, leaving the Bulls in the capable hands of his former pitching coach, Billy Mohl. In his first season at the helm, Mohl will oversee a veteran lineup and a pitching staff that is bookended by two big-time talents. R-So. LHP Shane McClanahan (4-2, 3.20, 104 K in 76 IP) is a third-team preseason All-American and a slam-dunk first-round pick in June, because he has a loose, athletic 6-foot-2 frame and a lightning-quick arm that produced 97-99 mph heat in his first inning of the spring last week. He relied very heavily on that explosive fastball last year, in part because his secondary stuff was under-developed, but he has refined his changeup (which flashes slightly above-average now) and improved his command of a slider, which should help make him a more complete pitcher. At the back of the staff, Jr. LHP Andrew Perez (6-3, 2.72, 6 SV) should be a shutdown closer with experience and putaway stuff. His velocity was down a bit in the summer and fall, but he came out of the chute sitting 92-95 in spring practice, and he has improved his slider and learned to throw his changeup for strikes. The supporting cast on the mound is thinner than expected, however, because the Bulls lost electric RHP D.J. Roberts to labrum surgery at the end of last season, and they were caught off balance when bullpen star Joe Cavallaro signed with the Mets as a 24th-round pick last summer. Grizzled, strike-throwing fifth-year senior bulldog Peter Strzelecki (3-4, 2.42) returns to the rotation after making 14 starts last spring. The Bulls are counting on RHP Collin Sullivan to make a jump as a sophomore in the Sunday spot; he returned to campus in the fall in better shape and with better command of his 89-92 fastball, solid 78-80 slider and a changeup with splitty action. Two juco transfers will also play big roles: LHP Connor Eason (a bounceback from Virginia who flashes 88-90 velocity and the ability to throw three pitches for strikes) and Alec Wiseley (an undersized righty with a quick arm that produced 90-93 heat and a very good slider). Freshman two-way talent Graham Hoffman also can pitch at 90-93 and should get some run in the bullpen, in addition to competing for time in the USF infield.
The Bulls must replace All-American Kevin Merrell at shortstop — no easy task, because Merrell was the infield glue and the engine that made the lineup go. Jr. Coco Montes could slide from second to short, where he lacks standout range but can be counted upon to make the routine plays. Montes is also one of four proven veteran hitters who lead the lineup, joining Jr. 3B David Villar (.294/.421/.453), Sr. OF Duke Stunkel (.344/.430/.467) and powerful Jr. 1B/C Joe Genord (.259/.352/.439, 9 HR). The X-factors are tooled-up junior outfielders Garrett Zech and Tyler Chatfield, who have struggled to make consistent contact over their first two seasons, preventing them from harnessing their exciting raw talent. Zech is a top-of-the-charts runner who made progress this fall reducing his strikeout rate, while Chatfield is a chiseled slugger with big raw power but a tendency to chase breaking balls out of the zone. If they can put it together as juniors, this should be a deep, capable lineup.
Rest of the Pack
• Memphis has finished with a .500 conference record just once in its four seasons in the American, but the Tigers might have enough firepower on the mound to make a run in 2018. The coaches are excited about the one-two rotation punch of Jonathan Bowlan (4-5, 3.75) and Riley Cabral. Bowlan is a 6-foot-7, 255-pound ox of a righthander with a 92-95 mph fastball that has sink, a swing-and-miss slider in the mid-80s and feel for a changeup. Cabral was a strikeout machine last year at Chipola (Fla.) JC, where he was drafted in the 13th round but elected to honor his commitment to Memphis. He’s a quick-armed 5-foot-10 righty with a 90-93 fastball and a putaway slider. Jr. RHP Alex Hicks, a 6-foot-4 sinkerballer who pitches down in the zone with a heavy 86-88 fastball and a decent slider, is slated to be the Sunday starter. Two more quality arms, RHP Blake Bennett and LHP Colton Neel, should anchor the bullpen. Bennett is a cutter specialist who also can run his heater up to 93, while Neel has good feel for an 88-91 fastball and two solid secondary pitches.
Neel is a two-way player who also brings some speed and table-setting skills to the outfield mix. Outfield speed is one of the greatest strengths of the Memphis lineup; CF Tyler Webb is a 6.5 runner with a bazooka arm, and fifth-year senior Carlos Williams has top-of-the-charts speed, he just needs to put the ball in play more consistently to make use of it. Webb (.305/.389/.474) is Memphis’ best overall player, and the Tigers are counting on him to be a major run producer in the middle of the lineup. So. SS Alec Trela (8 HR) is the team’s biggest power threat — and he has slimmed down his body and gotten quicker, making him a better defender on the left side of the infield. Otherwise, this lineup is filled with unknowns. Juco transfer Kyle Ouellete brings some pop to the first base position, and Eastern Illinois transfer is a scrappy spray hitter who should play sound defense at second base.
• After winning the AAC regular-season title in 2016, Tulane took a step back in Travis Jewett’s first year as head coach in 2017, posting a losing overall record, though the Green Wave rallied in conference play to finish just two games out of first place. That team was loaded with veterans, many of whom are now gone, leaving plenty of holes to fill. But Jewett and his staff brought in a big group of junior-college and graduate transfers, resulting in a pitching staff that is considerably deeper than it was a year ago. Juco transfer Kaleb Roper, a polished three-pitch strike thrower with an 87-90 fastball, looks slated for the Friday starter job. Fellow JC transfers Ryan Green and Will McAffer should form a nice power-armed duo at the back of the bullpen, both capable of touching at least 93 mph and flashing good power sliders. The Green Wave needs more out of returnees like LHP Ross Massey (who followed up a boffo freshman year with a disastrous sophomore campaign — 0-8, 9.58) and RHPs Keagan Gillies and Chase Solesky. The 6-foot-8 Gillies works downhill at 88-91 with a good curveball, while Solesky works down in the zone with a high-80s fastball and has more in the tank.
Two more juco transfers, Acy Owen and Ty Johnson, should form a dependable duo behind the plate — Owen is the more advanced defender, while Johnson is the more offensive option. Another JC transfer, Trevor Jensen, brings valuable defensive versatility and a promising righthanded bat. Tulane needs big sophomore jumps from Kody Hoese and Sal Gozzo on the right side of the infield after both hit below .215 as freshmen, but Jewett seems encouraged by their progress. the centerpiece of the largely unproven lineup is Jr. CF Grant Witherspoon (.299/.373/.420), who brings an exciting combination of speed, power and a pretty lefthanded stroke. He should be one of the AAC’s top draft prospects in 2018.
• Cincinnati hasn’t posted a winning overall record since 2011, and the Bearcats dismissed coach Ty Neal after four seasons in the wake of some off-field turmoil last spring. They replaced him with Scott Googins, who led Xavier to regionals in three of the last four years. Googins inherits a roster with some nice veteran pieces in the lineup but must answer some questions on the mound. The centerpiece of the lineup is Jr. OF AJ Bumpass (.287/.384/.491, 7 HR), who was drafted in the 29th round by the Reds as an eligible sophomore but returned to campus for his junior year. He brings an exciting combination of athleticism and emerging power potential. Seniors Connor McVey and Manny Rodriguez (one of the slickest defensive shortstops in the conference) give Cincinnati a reliable pair of vets on the left side of the infield, and athletic switch-hitter Jace Mercer (.273/.345/.358) is an emerging sophomore talent at second base. The Bearcats also have a rock-solid senior leader behind the plate in Joey Thomas, who has good catch-and-throw skills.
Veteran lefties JT Perez (2-7, 4.42) and Cam Alldred (2-1, 4.85) give the weekend rotation some good experience, but Cincinnati needs more out of them in 2018. So. RHP Nathan Kroger (3-1, 4.38) is an emerging talent who also should vie for a weekend job, along with promising freshman LHP Garrett Schoenle. And the bullpen has a dependable senior anchor in RHP David Orndorff (5-4, 3.41, 7 SV). With those seasoned veterans sprinkled throughout the roster, Cincinnati could surprise in the AAC under Googins’ steady leadership. They just need a number of their returnees to boost their productivity.
SEASON PREVIEWAaron Fitt - January 30, 2018
What’s included:
• Projected order of finish
• Preseason awards
• Top Prospects ($)
• Impact Freshmen ($)
• Team-by-team breakdowns ($)
Projected Standings
Bold indicates 2017 regional team, and records are from 2017. Teams are listed in order of projected 2018 finish.
Conference Overall
Houston 15-9 42-21
East Carolina 7-17 32-28
Connecticut 14-10 33-25
UCF 15-9 40-22
Wichita State* 10-11 28-30
South Florida 14-10 42-19
Memphis 8-16 30-29
Tulane 13-11 27-31
Cincinnati 10-14 28-30
*Conference record in MVC
Projected Regional Teams (4): Houston, East Carolina, Connecticut, UCF
Player of the Year: Greyson Jenista, OF, Wichita State
Pitcher of the Year: Tim Cate, LHP, Connecticut
Freshman of the Year: Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina
Top Prospects/Freshmen
Top Prospects, 2018 Draft
1 Shane McClanahan LHP South Florida
2 Tim Cate LHP Connecticut
3 Greyson Jenista OF Wichita State
4 Alec Bohm 3B/1B Wichita State
5 Dwanya Williams-Sutton OF East Carolina
6 Jonathan Bowlan RHP Memphis
7 Codi Heuer RHP Wichita State
8 Grant Witherspoon OF Tulane
9 Trey Cumbie LHP Houston
10 Zac Susi C Connecticut
11 JJ Montgomery RHP UCF
12 Andrew Perez LHP South Florida
13 Bryce Tucker LHP UCF
14 Joe Davis 1B Houston
15 Rylan Thomas* 1B UCF
16 Tyler Webb OF Memphis
17 Jordan Spicer RHP UCF
18 Cooper Coldiron SS Houston
19 Riley Cabral RHP Memphis
20 A.J. Bumpass OF Cincinnati
21 Thad Ward RHP UCF
22 PJ Poulin LHP Connecticut
23 Brody Wofford OF UCF
24 Chase Gardner LHP Connecticut
25 Chris Holba RHP East Carolina
26 Grayson Padgett OF Houston
27 Jake Washer C East Carolina
28 Ryan Green RHP Tulane
29 Ray Alejo OF UCF
30 Sam Lanier RHP East Carolina
31 Garrett Zech OF South Florida
32 Cre Finfrock RHP UCF
33 Will McAffer RHP Tulane
34 Ronnie Rossomando RHP Connecticut
35 Chris Chatfield OF South Florida
36 Dayton Dugas OF Wichita State
37 John Toppa OF Connecticut
38 Cam Alldred LHP Cincinnati
39 Manny Rodriguez SS Cincinnati
40 Joe Genord 1B/C South Florida
Top Prospects, 2019 Draft
1 Trey Benton RHP East Carolina
2 Jake Agnos LHP East Carolina
3 Mason Feole LHP Connecticut
4 Spencer Brickhouse OF East Carolina
5 Carter Henry RHP Houston
6 Alec Trela SS/3B Memphis
7 Anthony Prato SS Connecticut
8 Jared Triolo 3B Houston
9 Fred Villareal RHP Houston
10 Joe Sheridan LHP UCF
11 Keagon Gillies RHP Tulane
12 Alex Segal LHP Wichita State
13 Lael Lockhart OF/LHP Houston
14 Collin Sullivan RHP South Florida
15 Jake Wallace RHP Connecticut
16 Brayson Hurdsman LHP Houston
17 Chris Winkel 1B/OF Connecticut
18 Sal Gozzo SS Tulane
19 D.J. Roberts RHP South Florida
20 Tyler Smith RHP East Carolina
21 Tommy Barnhouse RHP Wichita State
22 Reese Robinson RHP Cincinnati
23 Chase Solesky RHP Tulane
24 Jacob Katzfey OF Wichita State
25 Nathan Kroger RHP Cincinnati
26 Dallas Beaver C/DH UCF
27 Jace Mercer SS/2B Cincinnati
28 Landon Kelly RHP Memphis
29 Preston Snavely RHP Wichita State
30 Bryant Packard OF East Carolina
Impact Freshmen
1 Gavin Williams RHP East Carolina
2 Ron Brown 1B/DH Houston
3 Alec Burleson 1B/LHP East Carolina
4 Graham Hoffman 3B/SS/RHP South Florida
5 Dalton Wingo OF UCF
6 Drew Minter OF Houston
7 Alex Segal LHP Wichita State
8 Joe Simeone RHP Connecticut
9 Griffin Bernardo 3B UCF
10 Liam Eddy RHP Wichita State
11 Christian Fedko INF Connecticut
12 Jack Sinclair RHP UCF
13 Ben Brooks SS Memphis
14 Paxton Wallace RHP/INF Wichita State
15 Colby Dunlop RHP Connecticut
16 Josh Bates RHP Tulane
17 Seth Caddell C East Carolina
18 Garrett Schoenle LHP Cincinnati
19 Tyler Mettetal LHP/1B Memphis
20 Garrett Kocis RHP/3B Wichita State
Notebook
The American Athletic Conference is consistently one of the most competitive, tightly bunched leagues in college baseball. In the American’s first four seasons, a different team has finished as the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament each year. Four teams finished within one game of first place last year, with a fifth team two games back. That logjam should only intensify with the addition of Wichita State, the longtime Missouri Valley Conference power that now brings its most talented team in years to the AAC.
Projected Regional Teams
• For an in-depth report on No. 24 Houston, read our Top 25 Breakdown on the Cougars.
Sophomores Trey Benton and Jake Agnos should form a dynamite one-two punch atop the rotation, with Jr. RHP Chris Holba and So. RHP Tyler Smith giving the Pirates two more very good starting options. Benton’s calling card is a bowling ball sinker that can touch 93-94, and he has developed a much better breaking ball to go with his quality changeup. Agnos, an aggressive lefty, stood out in the Cape Cod League for his ability to pitch off his 89-93 fastball that touched 94 with good life and deception. His 78-80 changeup and 75-78 downer curve are also solid offerings, and most encouragingly, he is learning to reduce his walk rate, which was his primary objective over the summer. Holba, another Cape League alumnus, features an 88-92 sinker with good life, a changeup that was his best pitch at times last year and a good slider. And Smith blossomed as a sinker/slider specialist this fall, to go along with a changeup that was already a good pitch. Blue-chip freshman Gavin Williams might develop into a frontline ace before his college career is done, but in the short term he looks like a strong candidate to anchor the back of the bullpen, where he can attack hitters with a 90-95 fastball. Jr. RHPs Sam Lanier and Matt Bridges give the Pirates two very experienced bullpen veterans with good stuff — Lanier can reach 94 with an improved breaking ball, and Bridges relies on a putaway slider. Finally, expect freshman two-way talent Alec Burleson to make a big impact in the bullpen as well as in the lineup — he led the team in RBIs this fall and also showed off advanced feel for a quality three-pitch mix as a lefty on the mound.
UConn’s two best position players occupy the two most important spots on the diamond: catcher and shortstop. Jr. C Zac Susi has a chance to play his way into the top three rounds next June after boosting his stock with a standout summer in the Cape League. He has a nice, compact lefthanded swing and showed the ability to drive the ball to all fields with regularity in the Cape. He’s also an advanced blocker and receiver with an above-average arm, and he’s a coach’s son with a good mind for the game. So. SS Anthony Prato (.304/.388/.376) is a standout defender at short with superb baseball IQ, smooth actions and very good range. He’ll be the catalyst atop the lineup, and he’s starting to drive the ball with more authority as well. UConn has a number of speedy athletes around Prato who can help push the action. The fastest of the lot is Jr. OF John Toppa, who ran a 6.56-second 60-yard dash on scout day and has been clocked as fast as 6.33 this fall. After breaking out of a nasty early-season slump, Toppa came on strong offensively down the stretch and in the Cape, and he’s an obvious breakout candidate in 2018. So is sophomore Chris Winkel, a versatile athlete whose above-average speed plays in center field, though he’s a standout defender at first base. He also has a sweet lefthanded swing with emerging power. Freshman Christian Fedko is one of several newcomers who should make an impact in the lineup; he oozes confidence but has the innate hitting ability to back up his swagger, and he’s making progress defensively. He could compete for time at second or third. Juco transfers Mike Woodworth, Thad Phillips and Matt Bonvicini should also compete for playing time, giving the Huskies some positional depth.
First baseman Rylan Thomas (.303 with 14 HR last year) earned freshman All-America honors last spring and is back to anchor UCF’s largely overhauled lineup. Thomas is one of the AAC’s top power hitters and has improved his approach and pitch recognition since last spring. Another returnee, Jr. 2B Matthew Mika, also opened eyes in the fall, and the Knights are counting on him to provide a spark atop the lineup thanks to his advanced bat-handling skills and speed on the basepaths (25 SB in 27 tries last year). Look for juco transfers Ray Alejo, Brody Wofford and Tyler Osik to make big impacts in the outfield. Alejo brings premium speed to center field, and Wofford (an unsigned 13th-round pick) has a sweet lefthanded swing with some pop and athleticism. Osik is a mature righthanded hitter with power potential and the ability to play a corner outfield spot or third base. Wiry-strong, athletic Fr. OF Dalton Wingo and physical, disciplined Fr. 3B Griffin Bernardo also figure to be key contributors early in their careers. So while the Knights have plenty of players who need to establish themselves at the Division I level, their upside is very exciting.
Keep an eye on …
• Wichita State ruled the Missouri Valley Conference with an iron fist for more than two decades, making seven trips to the College World Series between 1982 and 1996 and winning the national title in 1989. The program remained a contender throughout the first decade of the new century, but it has made just one trip to regionals this decade — in 2013. Todd Butler took over for Gene Stephenson as head coach the next year, but it’s taken him some time to re-energize the program, which has posted three straight losing seasons. However, the Shockers have their most talented, most experienced team of the Butler era in 2018, their first year as a member of the American. The roster is headlined by a pair of potential first-round picks in Jr. OF Greyson Jenista (.320/.413/.509, 9 HR) and Jr. 3B Alec Bohm (.305/.385/.519, 11 HR), the co-recipients of D1Baseball’s 2017 Summer Breakout Prospect award after both starred in the Cape Cod League. Both are big, physical sluggers with premium power potential and the ability to hit for average. Jenista played mostly first base his first two years at Wichita, but he showed off above-average speed and solid instincts in center field in the Cape, and he’s slated to play the position this spring as well. Butler says Jr. OF Dayton Dugas (.206/.268/.298) has more raw power than both of them, and if he can harness that ability, the Shockers could have one of the nation’s most fearsome trios in the heart of the order.
Wichita State also brings back three mature veterans up the middle in Sr. SS Trey Vickers, R-Jr. 2B Jordan Boyer and Sr. C Gunnar Troutwine, a trio that should anchor a strong defense and provide consistent, competitive at-bats. Juco transfer Mason O’Brien brings additional lefthanded pop to the first base spot, while athletic So. OF Jacob Katzfey and sweet-swinging Jr. DH Luke Ritter are breakout candidates after strong summers in the Florida League and California Collegiate League, respectively. Speaking of breakouts, Jr. RHP Codi Heuer looks primed to make the leap to legitimate Friday night ace after spending the summer lifting weights and adding strength. That work paid off this fall, when he ran his fastball up to 97 mph and flashed an above-average changeup; he was 92-95 in his first outing of the spring practice season, and if his breaking ball continues to improve, he has high-round-pick potential. Redshirt freshman LHP Alex Segal is another pick to click — the Shockers expected him to be their Saturday guy a year ago, but he missed the season after having his elbow scoped. He’s healthy again now, showing an 88-93 fastball and putaway curve. Six-foot-5 righties Preston Snavely and Connor Lungwitz both command 88-90 fastballs and have the look of innings-eating starters as well. So. RHP Tommy Barnhouse and Sr. RHP Chandler Sanburn both work at 91-93 with quality sliders, and they’ll be counted upon to anchor the bullpen. The pitching remains something of a question mark; there’s a lot of room for improvement, but Butler is cautiously optimistic that his staff is ready to make a jump in pitching coach Mike Steele’s second season in Wichita.
• South Florida made two regionals in three years under Mark Kingston, capped by a 42-win campaign in 2017, the program’s most victories since 1996. Kingston left for South Carolina after the season, leaving the Bulls in the capable hands of his former pitching coach, Billy Mohl. In his first season at the helm, Mohl will oversee a veteran lineup and a pitching staff that is bookended by two big-time talents. R-So. LHP Shane McClanahan (4-2, 3.20, 104 K in 76 IP) is a third-team preseason All-American and a slam-dunk first-round pick in June, because he has a loose, athletic 6-foot-2 frame and a lightning-quick arm that produced 97-99 mph heat in his first inning of the spring last week. He relied very heavily on that explosive fastball last year, in part because his secondary stuff was under-developed, but he has refined his changeup (which flashes slightly above-average now) and improved his command of a slider, which should help make him a more complete pitcher. At the back of the staff, Jr. LHP Andrew Perez (6-3, 2.72, 6 SV) should be a shutdown closer with experience and putaway stuff. His velocity was down a bit in the summer and fall, but he came out of the chute sitting 92-95 in spring practice, and he has improved his slider and learned to throw his changeup for strikes. The supporting cast on the mound is thinner than expected, however, because the Bulls lost electric RHP D.J. Roberts to labrum surgery at the end of last season, and they were caught off balance when bullpen star Joe Cavallaro signed with the Mets as a 24th-round pick last summer. Grizzled, strike-throwing fifth-year senior bulldog Peter Strzelecki (3-4, 2.42) returns to the rotation after making 14 starts last spring. The Bulls are counting on RHP Collin Sullivan to make a jump as a sophomore in the Sunday spot; he returned to campus in the fall in better shape and with better command of his 89-92 fastball, solid 78-80 slider and a changeup with splitty action. Two juco transfers will also play big roles: LHP Connor Eason (a bounceback from Virginia who flashes 88-90 velocity and the ability to throw three pitches for strikes) and Alec Wiseley (an undersized righty with a quick arm that produced 90-93 heat and a very good slider). Freshman two-way talent Graham Hoffman also can pitch at 90-93 and should get some run in the bullpen, in addition to competing for time in the USF infield.
The Bulls must replace All-American Kevin Merrell at shortstop — no easy task, because Merrell was the infield glue and the engine that made the lineup go. Jr. Coco Montes could slide from second to short, where he lacks standout range but can be counted upon to make the routine plays. Montes is also one of four proven veteran hitters who lead the lineup, joining Jr. 3B David Villar (.294/.421/.453), Sr. OF Duke Stunkel (.344/.430/.467) and powerful Jr. 1B/C Joe Genord (.259/.352/.439, 9 HR). The X-factors are tooled-up junior outfielders Garrett Zech and Tyler Chatfield, who have struggled to make consistent contact over their first two seasons, preventing them from harnessing their exciting raw talent. Zech is a top-of-the-charts runner who made progress this fall reducing his strikeout rate, while Chatfield is a chiseled slugger with big raw power but a tendency to chase breaking balls out of the zone. If they can put it together as juniors, this should be a deep, capable lineup.
Rest of the Pack
• Memphis has finished with a .500 conference record just once in its four seasons in the American, but the Tigers might have enough firepower on the mound to make a run in 2018. The coaches are excited about the one-two rotation punch of Jonathan Bowlan (4-5, 3.75) and Riley Cabral. Bowlan is a 6-foot-7, 255-pound ox of a righthander with a 92-95 mph fastball that has sink, a swing-and-miss slider in the mid-80s and feel for a changeup. Cabral was a strikeout machine last year at Chipola (Fla.) JC, where he was drafted in the 13th round but elected to honor his commitment to Memphis. He’s a quick-armed 5-foot-10 righty with a 90-93 fastball and a putaway slider. Jr. RHP Alex Hicks, a 6-foot-4 sinkerballer who pitches down in the zone with a heavy 86-88 fastball and a decent slider, is slated to be the Sunday starter. Two more quality arms, RHP Blake Bennett and LHP Colton Neel, should anchor the bullpen. Bennett is a cutter specialist who also can run his heater up to 93, while Neel has good feel for an 88-91 fastball and two solid secondary pitches.
Neel is a two-way player who also brings some speed and table-setting skills to the outfield mix. Outfield speed is one of the greatest strengths of the Memphis lineup; CF Tyler Webb is a 6.5 runner with a bazooka arm, and fifth-year senior Carlos Williams has top-of-the-charts speed, he just needs to put the ball in play more consistently to make use of it. Webb (.305/.389/.474) is Memphis’ best overall player, and the Tigers are counting on him to be a major run producer in the middle of the lineup. So. SS Alec Trela (8 HR) is the team’s biggest power threat — and he has slimmed down his body and gotten quicker, making him a better defender on the left side of the infield. Otherwise, this lineup is filled with unknowns. Juco transfer Kyle Ouellete brings some pop to the first base position, and Eastern Illinois transfer is a scrappy spray hitter who should play sound defense at second base.
Two more juco transfers, Acy Owen and Ty Johnson, should form a dependable duo behind the plate — Owen is the more advanced defender, while Johnson is the more offensive option. Another JC transfer, Trevor Jensen, brings valuable defensive versatility and a promising righthanded bat. Tulane needs big sophomore jumps from Kody Hoese and Sal Gozzo on the right side of the infield after both hit below .215 as freshmen, but Jewett seems encouraged by their progress. the centerpiece of the largely unproven lineup is Jr. CF Grant Witherspoon (.299/.373/.420), who brings an exciting combination of speed, power and a pretty lefthanded stroke. He should be one of the AAC’s top draft prospects in 2018.
Veteran lefties JT Perez (2-7, 4.42) and Cam Alldred (2-1, 4.85) give the weekend rotation some good experience, but Cincinnati needs more out of them in 2018. So. RHP Nathan Kroger (3-1, 4.38) is an emerging talent who also should vie for a weekend job, along with promising freshman LHP Garrett Schoenle. And the bullpen has a dependable senior anchor in RHP David Orndorff (5-4, 3.41, 7 SV). With those seasoned veterans sprinkled throughout the roster, Cincinnati could surprise in the AAC under Googins’ steady leadership. They just need a number of their returnees to boost their productivity.
