DOW 22,000
- Thread starter UCFKnight85
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i wonder when we will see the market crash again. recessions are fairly reliable. the last recession one was 2008-2009, so we are due for one again soon.
I think it'll be delayed a bit since the recovery was so awful. It'll be 3-4 years.
You probably mistake a correction with a crash. We will for sure get a correction at some point. The only question is how big and how quickly will things recover after that. The market could easily lose 20-30% through a certain period and stay within correction territory.
This is what I'm worried about, annual growth in my area is over 5%, that is clearly unsustainable.
I think wages will rise soon as the job market is really healthy with unemployment rate around 4% and we keep adding between 100k-200k jobs per month. According to CNBC this morning, they said companies are having a hard time filling jobs because employment is almost full thus they need to become more attractive to potential employees (i.e. higher wages, better benefits, etc).
true, i just wonder when its going to happen again is all. im thinking sometime next year.
Similar to 85's point of a correction vs. crash. I think it's reasonable to think there could be a housing correction, but I would not expect anything close to the housing crisis years ago. That was due to lending rules, selling loans with improper risk identified, and not having reserve capital to cover loses. All of those were fixed after the housing crisis, although there has been loosening of lending rules.
I'd guess sub-prime auto loans could be the next issue that bites the market, but I haven't done enough research to back it up with data.
IMO this is nothing like 2006. The market is largely good right now because mortgage rates remain low, wages and jobs are improving, and you have millions of millennials who graduated during the crash that are finally ready to start families and buy homes.
Plus credit is still relatively tight. There's no more lending with 0% down and adjustable rates. Most buyers these days are bringing down payments + the scrutiny over their credit history is much tighter.
And lastly, our big banks have undergone and past extensive stress tests and met capital reserves. They aren't sitting on a mountain of shitty subprime loans like they were back in 2006/2007. That makes the risk of the entire housing market to fall out less likely.
We're way, way overdue for a correction.
It has nothing to do with Trump, just like Obama porking the economy with printed money wasn't really 'helpful,' just 'kicking the can down the road.'
And people forget the .COM bust started under Clinton in mid-2000 ... the job losses didn't hit until March-April 2001. But even Clinton wasn't responsible for either the boom or bust.
We Americans have actually been in denial since Reagan and the Democratic party increased spending, and both the left-right started to collude on outsourcing starting with H1B Visas in a late session of 1990 (with only 40% voting), along with raising taxes to the point few want to invest in the US.
We have gotta stop with the spending, and recognize we cannot even sustain the government revenue stream that is insufficient already.
It has nothing to do with Trump, just like Obama porking the economy with printed money wasn't really 'helpful,' just 'kicking the can down the road.'
And people forget the .COM bust started under Clinton in mid-2000 ... the job losses didn't hit until March-April 2001. But even Clinton wasn't responsible for either the boom or bust.
We Americans have actually been in denial since Reagan and the Democratic party increased spending, and both the left-right started to collude on outsourcing starting with H1B Visas in a late session of 1990 (with only 40% voting), along with raising taxes to the point few want to invest in the US.
We have gotta stop with the spending, and recognize we cannot even sustain the government revenue stream that is insufficient already.
Something only a band of nitwit leftists at VICE could write.
I guess the millions of middle class people with stocks and ETFs in their 401k's or general investment funds aren't benefitting. There's a force field that stops with rich people!
I had to look up who that actually is. Hilarious- he's a far left wing communist who has his own show on......Russia Today (RT)
LOL. How can you be so obtuse when it comes to economics for the average American?
Only 52% of Americans own ANY stock or have retirement accounts. The bottom 80% of Americans own 8% of the stock in the market.
Owning stock should be a right,.not a privilege.
It's about time to add a stock tax on the 52% so that the 48% can own some stock.
That's what happens when most Americans sell during a panic and the rich buy the stocks cheap. Then the roles reverse during manias. It's much more complicated than wealth distribution and "evil corporations".
Yes, it has nothing at all to do with stagnant wages for 90+% of American workers.
Nope. Rich people are evil; corporations are too. They should be nationalized and turned into welfare factories.
I didn't say that. I said there's more to it than that. Of course wages have an effect, but behavioral economics plays a huge role in these outcomes. I'd have to dig around to find it, but there's papers published documenting money lost by the middle class due to excessive trading. In a somewhat related note, watch what people do with their tax return and you'll see a microcosm of the issue. People are not putting a priority on retirement saving and are not taking the time to learn about the stock market.
Yeah, people need to put a priority on cigarettes, heroine, alcohol and pot instead. Your paycheck increases when you perform well at work, not because of inflation. If you're shitty at your job or don't care you don't get a raise. Wages don't go up and millions and millions more people are added to entitlement payrolls every year, no coincidence there...
Bob, you're an idiot.
Our country is the wealthiest it has ever been, with one of the longest periods of sustained economic growth in history, and wages for 90+% of the people have flatlined. The amount of money people are saving is at all all-time low, and the best reason you can find is people are spending too much on cigarettes and alcohol?
You're a special kind of dumb, Bob.
Sorry, I forgot accidental pregnancies and/or children out of wedlock. I'm just poor dumb redneck trailer trash but I seem to do just fine. Huh.
Necessities, retirement saving, then consumer spending.
How many of these people have $600 iPhones they're paying $30/month for? $150 cable bills? $300+ eating out every month? For some, you're absolutely right. Their wages don't allow for saving and they're scraping buy without luxuries. For the majority, they can't save because they spend too much on assets that provide a negative return.
Not to mention that wages have on average been increasing 3% per year since 2015 and inflation has remained at historical lows, hovering in the 1-1.3% range.
The idea that wages aren't growing with inflation is a lie and not supported by data.
This one is actually running late, I think that is mostly because we never had a real recovery. We grew real slow or even stalled a number of times, had a couple of negative quarters not back to back thrown in.
Our economy is wealthy because of consumer spending. The fact that people are out there spending money can lead one to assume that people aren't saving. Wages go up when productivity goes up because when productivity goes up, more money can be made. The productive employees are earning more money, but more and more people are becoming entitled to wage growth thinking that just doing the same work with the same productivity should grow their wages which isn't always the case. We're in an economy right now where those who work harder and more importantly, smarter, are going to win.
I think you're right. The Fed was so concerned with deflation from the defaulted loans (remember credit is a form of currency), they stagnated the economy through QE. If they took a more hands off role, we would have had deflation but those still working would have more purchasing power. In the long term, I think it would have spurred more growth.
Unemployment numbers were fake. Or at least presented in deliberately misleading ways. If we truly had a 4.6% unemployment economy then wages would be increasing higher than 3% per year. The fact is that millions of people are still out of the labor force and there are still a lot of people applying for jobs they don't have skills for
Which means switching jobs because your current company isn't going to pass it on to you.
Then they still must be "fake" because the BLS is still run by the same staff as were under Obama.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jec.nr0.htm
"Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 209,000 in July, and the
unemployment rate, at 4.3 percent, was little changed. Job gains
occurred in food services and drinking places, professional and
business services, and health care. Employment growth has
averaged 184,000 per month thus far this year, in line with the
average monthly gain in 2016 (+187,000)."
"The labor force participation rate, at 62.9 percent,
changed little in July and has shown little movement on net over
the past year. The employment-population ratio, at 60.2 percent
in July, also was little changed over the month but is up by 0.4
percentage point over the year."
But yeah, it's Trump.
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