ECU sim time.

[anon_x731qvsnsyb8i]

Last week's "rain sim result" was pretty much on the money. I ran a sim with rain for Memphis where the result was 37-31, actual was 31-30.

This week I ran several games. 4 scores per image.

First set of scores is with wind.
Second set of scores are perfect conditions.
Third set is with rain.

ECU has a nasty habit this year of "playing up" and they have UCF at home. The games from this point on won't be cakewalks.

1st row: Windy game average/prediction: 35-20
2nd row: Perfect conditions average/prediction: 42-25
3rd row: Rain game average/prediction: 33-16

 

[thespiritof1976]

Still too close for comfort. Got to take these guys seriously.

 

[Stormthecourt?]

Rain is in the forecast so far. 90% chance for half an inch

 

[anon_x731qvsnsyb8i]

Still too close for comfort. Got to take these guys seriously.

I firmly believe that EACH team UCF can beat, but also EACH team can beat UCF if not careful. Teams play up, and I bet they will. It's a chance for bragging rights...

 

[Money_Milton]

Curious, ECU is starting a true frosh at QB for the first time... does this matter at all to sim results, or is it kind of using data from Herring? Or is more of an overall team data type thing?

 

[DrPhillipsKnight]

19-21? :/

 

[Happy Hands]

90% chance for half an inch

If UCF uses just the bone...tip.

 

[muckdawg24]

Hopefully the Memphis game was a big wake up call for the team to get their heads in the game the minute the ball is kicked and are hyper focused.

 

[Happy Hands]

Last week's "rain sim result" was pretty much on the money. I ran a sim with rain for Memphis where the result was 37-31, actual was 31-30.

This week I ran several games. 4 scores per image.

First set of scores is with wind.
Second set of scores are perfect conditions.
Third set is with rain.

ECU has a nasty habit this year of "playing up" and they have UCF at home. The games from this point on won't be cakewalks.

1st row: Windy game average/prediction: 35-20
2nd row: Perfect conditions average/prediction: 42-25
3rd row: Rain game average/prediction: 33-16

I'm not saying anything. Last week, I threatened to punch one and then it came true. Why is football? Right?

 

[Poolside Knight]

if UCF ends up being in a nail biter with ECU then it deserves to drop in the rankings, even with the QB change. Memphis had a dynamic RB and a great offensive mind in Norvell so that was more excusable

 

[anon_x731qvsnsyb8i]

if UCF ends up being in a nail biter with ECU then it deserves to drop in the rankings, even with the QB change. Memphis had a dynamic RB and a great offensive mind in Norvell so that was more excusable

I'm not so sure about that. Maybe I agree a little bit in regards to minimizing mistakes, but with the target on the back other teams want to be spoiler, especially those teams with little to lose. This becomes their super-bowl, their goal, if nothing else to play for. That phenomena is why we get close games...

 

[Poolside Knight]

I'm not so sure about that. Maybe I agree a little bit in regards to minimizing mistakes, but with the target on the back other teams want to be spoiler, especially those teams with little to lose. This becomes their super-bowl, their goal, if nothing else to play for. That phenomena is why we get close games...

just saying I'll be disapointed if we are in a dog fight with a team coached by Montgomery who is probably getting fired any week

 

[JAFFX2]

Last week's "rain sim result" was pretty much on the money. I ran a sim with rain for Memphis where the result was 37-31, actual was 31-30.

This week I ran several games. 4 scores per image.

First set of scores is with wind.
Second set of scores are perfect conditions.
Third set is with rain.

ECU has a nasty habit this year of "playing up" and they have UCF at home. The games from this point on won't be cakewalks.

1st row: Windy game average/prediction: 35-20
2nd row: Perfect conditions average/prediction: 42-25
3rd row: Rain game average/prediction: 33-16

Did you run these with the new Freshman starting QB?

 

[Gwoz]

I'm not so sure about that. Maybe I agree a little bit in regards to minimizing mistakes, but with the target on the back other teams want to be spoiler, especially those teams with little to lose. This becomes their super-bowl, their goal, if nothing else to play for. That phenomena is why we get close games...

That can be said for any highly ranked team.

 

[anon_x731qvsnsyb8i]

Did you run these with the new Freshman starting QB?

Ahlers.

 

[anon_x731qvsnsyb8i]

I think I may run a few more actually, just got a new statistics and AI update...will post if any changes are major.

 

[bluechip12]

Quite accurate yet again.

 

[Wings0fred]

Were any simulations done with Mack starting?

 

[Stormthecourt?]

Were any simulations done with Mack starting?

 

[anon_x731qvsnsyb8i]

Were any simulations done with Mack starting?

No, but seeing that this was mostly going to be a running game with minimal playbook because of the 4 game gauntlet coming, I didn't anticipate much of a change in the score.

I'm going to sim against BYE this week.