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GAME 10: UCF @ Tulane, Sim results and Predictions

mr. knightman

Four-Star Recruit
Aug 10, 2021
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11/10/2022 Tulane Edition:


Let's recap the Memphis game...


A much-needed road win. 35-28. The sim average won the guessing-game this week with 42-25...within one score on offense for both teams.

I don't know what to make of Tulane, the last few years I always felt they were a team that could get really good with the right combination of theme, aesthetic, location and academics. I kept thinking "they'll be good this year"...only to whiff. Peers made fun of me. NOW, go figure. I didn't say this is "the year" Tulane gets good in 2022, and what happens? They get good.

So. Tulane.


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Tulane Fun-Facts:

Not typically known for being good at football.

Was a founding member of the SEC. Yep. They left to form the Southern Ivy League/Magnolia Conference which merged into Conference USA in 1995. Some of that early prestige has more weight than you think and they were a dark-horse for Big 12 consideration during the first flirtations in 2016 (Google it). They could be playing themselves into some considerations again. Good sports, good academics, New Orleans...

Tulane's nickname was adopted during the 1920 season, after a song titled "The Rolling Green Wave" was published in the Tulane Hullabaloo in 1920. From 1893 to 1919 the athletic teams of Tulane were officially known as "The Olive and Blue," for the official school colors.

Yulman Stadium is the on-campus venue for football at Tulane University in New Orleans, Louisiana. It currently has a capacity of 30,000 spectators, with 4,500 premium seats in two fan clubs – the Westfeldt Terrace and the Jill H. and Avram A. Glazer Family Club.[2] The stadium's first game and grand opening was the 2014 season's home opener against its former Southern Conference and Southeastern Conference foe Georgia Tech on September 6, 2014.


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Players to watch for Tulane:

#22 Tyjae Spears - RB, 5'11", 195 pounds, JR. Averaging 83 yards a game, 5.6 yards a carry.

#7 Michael Pratt - QB, 6'3', 220 Pounds, JR. 142 for 213. Perfect 2/3rds(66.67%) of passes are caught.

#10 Shae Wyatt - WR, 6'1", 190 Pounds, SR. Averaging 43 yards a game.

Overall:
Points per game
UCF 35.7 Tulane 32.9

Yards per game
UCF 501.0 Tulane 418.7

Opp points per game
UCF 18.8 Tulane 16.9

RECENT common-opponent score of note:

11/22:

Tulane 38
Memphis 28


***Onto the REAL Beef*** ( or Jerk Chicken over spicy rice and lime-and-pepper brocolli)

Weather forecast at 3:30PM Eastern kickoff:
Sunset: 5:05pm (this early sunset stuff is getting old...)
Temp: 62F
Chance of rain: 0% at kickoff, but rain early morning (Really? Zero?...Zero...again...)


TV: ESPN2


I ran 12 CPU simulations for a good math spread. I ran all 12 with clear weather. I also used Mickey Keene at QB.

Addendum: Will run 6 more with JRP.


Average of 12 simulation results:

UCF 38
Tulane 30

Sim Avg Spread:
UCF -8 (Vegas: Tulane -1.5 2:12PM 11/10/22)

JRP as QB:

UCF 42
Tulane 34

"Heart" Prediction:

UCF 32
Tulane 30

"Heart" spread:

CENTRAL FLORIDA: -2 (Vegas be damned...barely)

My friend's son Julian's prediction:

UCF 24
Tulane 20

Julian's line of doom: UCF -4 (He's not old enough for Vegas, sorry)

GUEST Prediction:

Andre's pick

UCF 41
Tulane 38







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I was worried about the last three games and in 2 of them we took care of business. One we allegedly lost due to a rogue agent.

Tulane looks very similar to us on paper. Offense is very similar in run vs pass play count share but just less productive. JRP has nearly identical passing stats as Pratt, even with missing a game and a half. Really looks like the entire offense is Spears and Pratt running the ball, similar to JRP and Bowser/Harvey, but throwing even less.

Defense looks stout but we hold slight edges in TFLs, sacks, and FFs. A huge edge in passes defended (41 v 25), but Tulane has twice as many picks (8 v 4).

My armchair analysis for the Defense is to force the throw but lately we've been giving up easy throws and stuff on the edges a lot.

I'm nervous for every single game and this one is no different but I believe we can expose Tulane this weekend. GKCO
 
Gus is crazy if he starts JRP.

Either way, I think we're in for a disappointment.

43-40 Tulane
 
Gus is crazy if he starts JRP.

Either way, I think we're in for a disappointment.

43-40 Tulane
I gave my unpopular post earlier this week about QBs and this season. I hope we win but would not bet a penny on this game. I have a sense that Gus will start JRP. The problem I have is that whoever Gus starts he will probably keep them in there the whole game even if they look bad. JRP has been inconsistent in his passing game.
 
The problem I have is that whoever Gus starts he will probably keep them in there the whole game even if they look bad. JRP has been inconsistent in his passing game.
I'm going to give Gus some credit that he won't be afraid to switch because now he knows how each guy can play against live competition. This has come down to a 1 game season, have to be ready to dance with both girls.
 
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