9/29/2022 SMU Mustang Edition:
Let's recap the Wreck...
Nailed the Defense...again, both Julian and I were +/-3 in variance. I predicted 45-13. Julian predicted 45-7. Offense just can't get over the hump it appears...
There are times were you can see a flash of what can be successful. The timing seems off-kilter. WRs a little in front, passes a little behind...SOME on the numbers.
It's a bit of an adjustment seeing WRs at UCF with the dropsies, but here we are. Can't have those against SMU...at all.
Moving onto the SMU Mustangs.
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SMU Fun-Facts:
They were THAT school that will never shake the history of cheating at a systemic level. If you don't know the story, go watch "Necessary Roughness" as that movie is based on the SMU Scandal.
SMU is one of the few universities to have a voting student member of its Board of Trustees. Nearly 200 campus organizations provide other opportunities for involvement.
Founded in 1911 by what is now The United Methodist Church, SMU opened in 1915 with support from Dallas leaders. The University is nonsectarian in its teaching and committed to freedom of inquiry.
The internationally acclaimed Meadows Museum houses one of the finest collections of Spanish art outside of Spain.
The University's 10 libraries house the largest private collection of research materials in the Southwest.
Source: https://008437smu.weebly.com/fun-facts.html#
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Players to watch for SMU:
Tanner Mordecai - 6'3", 214 pounds, QB 12th year senior and I believe the best QB in conference, perhaps tied with Holton Ahlers.
Tre Siggers - 5'9", 204 pounds, RB North Texas SR Transfer, shifty...but can barrel forward as I saw in a couple games so far this year.
Velton Gardner - 5'9", 192 pounds, RB Junior Kansas Transfer, a very good capable back with speed.
ALL of their WRs? Pretty much?
***Onto the REAL Beef*** (or Steamed Crawfish and Pepper and lime-buttered Mashed Potatoes...which are damn good by the way)
Update:
Weather forecast at 7:00PM Eastern kickoff:
Sunset: 7:05pm
Temp: 78F
Chance of rain: 7% (7 percent...really...seven damn percent)
Lots of 7s above. Means good luck.
TV: ESPN2.
I ran 12 CPU simulations for a good math spread. I ran all 12 without weather. The math seems to think UCF gets better at timing or something. Interestingly, a couple games still drop to SMU of the 12.
I'm skeptical of the math. I believe neither will score over 40.
Average of 12 simulation results:
UCF 44
SMU 35
Sim Avg Spread:
UCF -9 (Vegas: UCF -3.5 8:17PM 9/29/22)
"Heart" Prediction:
I think the Defense continues to do well, the question really is offense production...again. Over 40 is NOT likely in my opinion versus the math. I think magic number 38 comes back.
SMU is averaging 38 points a game so far.
UCF is 34.25 per game. Defense is the story in this game I feel.
I give the lean to UCF only due to being a home game, but worry because of crowd and game moved to Sunday (as of time of this write-up)
UCF 30
SMU 24
"Heart" spread:
CENTRAL FLORIDA: -6 (Vegas be damned)
My friend's son Julian's prediction:
UCF 24
SMU 17
Julian's line of doom: UCF -7 (He's not old enough for Vegas, sorry)
Let's recap the Wreck...
Nailed the Defense...again, both Julian and I were +/-3 in variance. I predicted 45-13. Julian predicted 45-7. Offense just can't get over the hump it appears...
There are times were you can see a flash of what can be successful. The timing seems off-kilter. WRs a little in front, passes a little behind...SOME on the numbers.
It's a bit of an adjustment seeing WRs at UCF with the dropsies, but here we are. Can't have those against SMU...at all.
Moving onto the SMU Mustangs.
----
SMU Fun-Facts:
They were THAT school that will never shake the history of cheating at a systemic level. If you don't know the story, go watch "Necessary Roughness" as that movie is based on the SMU Scandal.
SMU is one of the few universities to have a voting student member of its Board of Trustees. Nearly 200 campus organizations provide other opportunities for involvement.
Founded in 1911 by what is now The United Methodist Church, SMU opened in 1915 with support from Dallas leaders. The University is nonsectarian in its teaching and committed to freedom of inquiry.
The internationally acclaimed Meadows Museum houses one of the finest collections of Spanish art outside of Spain.
The University's 10 libraries house the largest private collection of research materials in the Southwest.
Source: https://008437smu.weebly.com/fun-facts.html#
----
Players to watch for SMU:
Tanner Mordecai - 6'3", 214 pounds, QB 12th year senior and I believe the best QB in conference, perhaps tied with Holton Ahlers.
Tre Siggers - 5'9", 204 pounds, RB North Texas SR Transfer, shifty...but can barrel forward as I saw in a couple games so far this year.
Velton Gardner - 5'9", 192 pounds, RB Junior Kansas Transfer, a very good capable back with speed.
ALL of their WRs? Pretty much?
***Onto the REAL Beef*** (or Steamed Crawfish and Pepper and lime-buttered Mashed Potatoes...which are damn good by the way)
Update:
Weather forecast at 7:00PM Eastern kickoff:
Sunset: 7:05pm
Temp: 78F
Chance of rain: 7% (7 percent...really...seven damn percent)
Lots of 7s above. Means good luck.
TV: ESPN2.
I ran 12 CPU simulations for a good math spread. I ran all 12 without weather. The math seems to think UCF gets better at timing or something. Interestingly, a couple games still drop to SMU of the 12.
I'm skeptical of the math. I believe neither will score over 40.
Average of 12 simulation results:
UCF 44
SMU 35
Sim Avg Spread:
UCF -9 (Vegas: UCF -3.5 8:17PM 9/29/22)
"Heart" Prediction:
I think the Defense continues to do well, the question really is offense production...again. Over 40 is NOT likely in my opinion versus the math. I think magic number 38 comes back.
SMU is averaging 38 points a game so far.
UCF is 34.25 per game. Defense is the story in this game I feel.
I give the lean to UCF only due to being a home game, but worry because of crowd and game moved to Sunday (as of time of this write-up)
UCF 30
SMU 24
"Heart" spread:
CENTRAL FLORIDA: -6 (Vegas be damned)
My friend's son Julian's prediction:
UCF 24
SMU 17
Julian's line of doom: UCF -7 (He's not old enough for Vegas, sorry)
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