ADVERTISEMENT

GAME 9: UCF @ Memphis, Sims results and Predictions

mr. knightman

Four-Star Recruit
Aug 10, 2021
354
460
63
Hell
indianrivermusiccompany.com
11/3/2022 Memphis Edition:


Let's recap the Cinci game...


EXCELLENT. ECU was a puzzle to me...there was consistency forming and it seemingly fell apart for ECU.

I still felt UCF could win at home against Cinci, and Julian and I were pretty close on our predictions. The final was 25-21, Julian predicted low with 20-17, and I predicted higher with 31-28. We both were close on the spread at -3, and the final spread was -4. Well done I feel...

Onto the Beale-Street Bengals...(Memphis)

----
Memphis Tigers Fun-Facts:

The University, similar to UCF, went through a name change from Memphis State University to University of Memphis as many know in 1994, but the school STARTED as West Tennessee State Normal School as a Teachers college in 1912.

Memphis awards about 3000 Doctorates annually.

The colors blue and grey were chosen as school colors to commemorate the "nation coming back together" after the civil war. Both colors represent the primary colors of both opposing armies in the Civil War.

Source: https://www.memphis.edu/about/umhistory.php

----
Players to watch for Memphis:

#28 Asa Martin - RB, 5'11", 200 pounds, RS SR. 47 attempts averaging 6 yards a carry.

#5 Seth Henigan - QB, 6'3', 210 Pounds, Soph SR. 179 for 276, 64.86%...not bad.

#8 Xavier Cullens - LB, 5'11" 225 Pounds, RS SR. 32 solo tackles, 29 assists.

Memphis Defense only has 10 sacks in 8 games.



***Onto the REAL Beef*** (Marinaded Mojo Chicken and grilled Chili-Pepper-oil-glazed brocoletti)

Weather forecast at 3:30PM Eastern kickoff:
Sunset: 6:01pm
Temp: 78F
Chance of rain: 0% (Really? Zero?...Zero...)


TV: ESPN2


I ran 12 CPU simulations for a good math spread. I ran all 12 with clear weather. I also used Mickey Keene at QB.


Average of 12 simulation results:

UCF 42
Memphis 25

Sim Avg Spread:
UCF -17 (Vegas: UCF -3.5 12:31PM 11/3/22)

"Heart" Prediction:

UCF 49
Memphis 24

"Heart" spread:

CENTRAL FLORIDA: -25 (Vegas be damned)

My friend's son Julian's prediction:

UCF 41
Memphis 20

Julian's line of doom: UCF -21 (He's not old enough for Vegas, sorry)

313949600_4118066711751065_2310473671408058349_n.jpg
314401163_4118066715084398_4585480351507564667_n.jpg
314349603_4118066741751062_544089981855955519_n.jpg
314378370_4118066775084392_7022904552930292017_n.jpg
313902956_4118066791751057_5442344892388941191_n.jpg
313406863_4118066818417721_1582833667743390317_n.jpg
313987438_4118066851751051_5076321833905747530_n.jpg
314412765_4118066865084383_7919102788578958047_n.jpg
314364543_4118066901751046_6186774946032668285_n.jpg
313875295_4118066928417710_7229042163108840484_n.jpg
313403518_4118066938417709_2271378074109030562_n.jpg
313399591_4118066991751037_2605696157115712818_n.jpg
 
The only loss 41:42 is crazy with 4 TD in the 4th period :)
I mean its litterally how it played out 2 years ago 50-49. We couldn't hold on to the ball to stop them from scoring.

0.17 second 3 and outs and a stubborn coach.
 
I want the 59-0 sim.

but in all reality, i think the ecu game is an anomaly since they knew what play we were calling. Cincinnati was on th money and we win by 3 scores without the fumbles.

it would seem memphis’ offense is decent but not their defense. Playing at home i can see them scoring 28 or 31 with us scoring 31-38.

i predict we lose 31-34
 
Listening to Coach radio show last night I'm feeling confident that UCF is very aware of their road game issues and are looking to correct that with Memphis game. I'm going to predict a blow out in this game. Memphis defense isn't that good and our Oline will push them around and with our clown car of talent at RB and whoever is Qb1 will tire out Memphis defense and in the 4th will be running all over them.

Memphis has talent so they will score but I see a SMU like score in this game. So, go with that score. 41-19 Knights.
 
  • Like
Reactions: mr. knightman
Addendum:

Ran 6 with JRP with interesting results, seems Memphis has trouble with the run, Plumlee *could* be the better QB against Memphis Defense.


UCF 37
Memphis 21

JRP Sim Spread: UCF -16

314434483_4118662095024860_7951520602761324366_n.jpg
314104320_4118662235024846_6716776176645643601_n.jpg
314429360_4118662331691503_4680978209715177218_n.jpg
314509272_4118662541691482_6036945586602209901_n.jpg


Crazy Overtime game:
314491372_4118662681691468_3063118788949604667_n.jpg
Did you slip in the 2017 overtime game on us? Geez, what a thriller.
 
  • Like
Reactions: mr. knightman
it would be nice to stop turning into USF on the road

Yep. Need to see it to believe it at this point. Memphis coming off a bye in the Liberty Bowl looking to stop a losing streak and send us out of the AAC with a L. Huge ECU vibes. Got to break the cycle. Let's Walk'em in Memphis.
 
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT