Has Trump already lost the 2020 election?

[fried-chicken]

Michigan numbers are coming in at

Biden 50%
Trump 36%
Undecided 14%

This is way different from 2016 where both were in the low 40% and the undecided broke late for Trump. Trump now has to win all of the undecided votes and ALSO convert people who already decided for Biden.

Its like that a lot of states. Biden is pushing 50% in many of the swing states and Trump is running out of undecided voters.

The house, which follows popular vote more closely than the Senate is showing generic Dems with a 10 point lead over generic Republican.

At what point do senate republicans start distancing themselves from Trump in order to try and save the Senate so democrats don't win all three branches?

 

[UCFKnightfan08]

I’m interested to see what happens in the polls after Saturday. A million requests for tickets is insane. Before the shutdown there would be thousands of people outside days in advance trying to get in. What I see and what the polls are showing are very different so it’s tough to know what to believe.

I think once the debates start, President Trump will have Biden stumbling over his words so much that people in the middle, regardless of how they feel about Trump, will vote for him.

 

[fried-chicken]

Before you say "LOL 2016 POLLZ" look up the polls in 2016. Clinton never passed 48% in any poll. We had a lot of people undecided up until the final ballots were cast. Thats not the case now. Biden is already at 51% nationally and the swing states in 2016 were very close. 2020 thats not the case right now.

 

[DAiello18]

Michigan numbers are coming in at

Biden 50%
Trump 36%
Undecided 14%

This is way different from 2016 where both were in the low 40% and the undecided broke late for Trump. Trump now has to win all of the undecided votes and ALSO convert people who already decided for Biden.

Its like that a lot of states. Biden is pushing 50% in many of the swing states and Trump is running out of undecided voters.

The house, which follows popular vote more closely than the Senate is showing generic Dems with a 10 point lead over generic Republican.

At what point do senate republicans start distancing themselves from Trump in order to try and save the Senate so democrats don't win all three branches?

Honest question.

I wonder the accuracy of those polls not because I don’t think they are telling the truth. Rather I wonder if this is like 2016 and people just don’t admit that is who they are voting for? I mean if you’re voting Biden, you’re pretty open about It and I’m sure some of the Trump Sect is very open about It. But that middle ground I wonder if any of them are really open about It. That run of the mill person who won’t post on social media about It type.

Not saying you’re wrong, I’m actually just curious. 538 has him trailing in a bunch of polls as well and if the gap widens the smart political play is to abandon the sinking ship. I just wonder if Its that Wide cause people hate him or because people are embarrassed to admit It but will vote come the time. I guess you can say the same for Biden. Talk is great but will they get out and vote.

 

[fried-chicken]

I’m interested to see what happens in the polls after Saturday. A million requests for tickets is insane. Before the shutdown there would be thousands of people outside days in advance trying to get in. What I see and what the polls are showing are very different so it’s tough to know what to believe.

I think once the debates start, President Trump will have Biden stumbling over his words so much that people in the middle, regardless of how they feel about Trump, will vote for him.

You do know that 1 million tickets is a kpop tictoc meme right? Im guessing not.

 

[fried-chicken]

Honest question.

I wonder the accuracy of those polls not because I don’t think they are telling the truth. Rather I wonder if this is like 2016 and people just don’t admit that is who they are voting for? I mean if you’re voting Biden, you’re pretty open about It and I’m sure some of the Trump Sect is very open about It. But that middle ground I wonder if any of them are really open about It. That run of the mill person who won’t post on social media about It type.

Not saying you’re wrong, I’m actually just curious. 538 has him trailing in a bunch of polls as well and if the gap widens the smart political play is to abandon the sinking ship. I just wonder if Its that Wide cause people hate him or because people are embarrassed to admit It but will vote come the time. I guess you can say the same for Biden. Talk is great but will they get out and vote.

That theory of being embarassed to admit youre voting for trump makes sense in 2016 when there were so many undecided but as i said we already have over 50% committing to biden in swing states. Even if every single swing vote was someone embarassed to admit to voting for Trump he'd still lose unless he converts Biden voters.

 

[NinjaKnight]

I’m interested to see what happens in the polls after Saturday. A million requests for tickets is insane. Before the shutdown there would be thousands of people outside days in advance trying to get in. What I see and what the polls are showing are very different so it’s tough to know what to believe.

I think once the debates start, President Trump will have Biden stumbling over his words so much that people in the middle, regardless of how they feel about Trump, will vote for him.

You do know most of those ticket requests are people doing it to troll Trump, right? They aren't actually showing up. It's going to be a repeat of his empty inauguration.

Of course not, you are an OAN listening troglodyte.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

Before you say "LOL 2016 POLLZ" look up the polls in 2016. Clinton never passed 48% in any poll. We had a lot of people undecided up until the final ballots were cast. Thats not the case now. Biden is already at 51% nationally and the swing states in 2016 were very close. 2020 thats not the case right now.

The poll analysis gave Clinton a 71% shot of winning and a margin of popular vote of 3.6%+/- 5%. Actual margin was 2.1%. Well within the range predicted. A 29% shot they gave Trump was far from assuring Clinton would be the victor.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

 

[Crazyhole]

Before you say "LOL 2016 POLLZ" look up the polls in 2016. Clinton never passed 48% in any poll. We had a lot of people undecided up until the final ballots were cast. Thats not the case now. Biden is already at 51% nationally and the swing states in 2016 were very close. 2020 thats not the case right now.

Go back to 6 months ago. People were generally happy with life, and in that scenario the incumbent pretty much always wins. The polls still showed Trump losing. If the election were held today it would be a landslide against him. A few months from now things could easily flip again.

 

[Cubs79]

I’m interested to see what happens in the polls after Saturday. A million requests for tickets is insane. Before the shutdown there would be thousands of people outside days in advance trying to get in. What I see and what the polls are showing are very different so it’s tough to know what to believe.

I think once the debates start, President Trump will have Biden stumbling over his words so much that people in the middle, regardless of how they feel about Trump, will vote for him.

The debates aren't going to matter much at all. This election is about Trump, not Biden, and I dont see anything Trump can do at the debates that is going to change peoples opinion of him one way or the other. Trump is also a terrible debater, so even if Biden does poorly, that doesnt equate to Trump doing great.

 

[Cubs79]

Go back to 6 months ago. People were generally happy with life, and in that scenario the incumbent pretty much always wins. The polls still showed Trump losing. If the election were held today it would be a landslide against him. A few months from now things could easily flip again.

I agree. At this point, I have a hard time seeing Trump winning, I think if anything people are just wanting to get back to some sort of normalcy. But, we are still several months out so things can certainly change.

ETA: I think Trump's only real way of winning is if to many people on the left vote 3rd party, or just dont show up, which is certainly a possibility.

 

[DAiello18]

That theory of being embarassed to admit youre voting for trump makes sense in 2016 when there were so many undecided but as i said we already have over 50% committing to biden in swing states. Even if every single swing vote was someone embarassed to admit to voting for Trump he'd still lose unless he converts Biden voters.

Fair enough. I

I agree. At this point, I have a hard time seeing Trump winning, I think if anything people are just wanting to get back to some sort of normalcy. But, we are still several months out so things can certainly change.

ETA: I think Trump's only real way of winning is if to many people on the left vote 3rd party, or just dont show up, which is certainly a possibility.

i feel like It will almost certainly come down to that last part. Its not If people like Biden > Trump. I think Its can Biden get the Bernie Bro’s and Dejected Middle Grounds to show up and vote.

Trump will have his hardcore 20%, Biden will have his 20%. Will the 60% remaining even want to vote and if they do how many that show up vote for Biden.

 

[Cubs79]

Fair enough. I


i feel like It will almost certainly come down to that last part. Its not If people like Biden > Trump. I think Its can Biden get the Bernie Bro’s and Dejected Middle Grounds to show up and vote.

Trump will have his hardcore 20%, Biden will have his 20%. Will the 60% remaining even want to vote and if they do how many that show up vote for Biden.

Biden is the centrist candidate, and I think that hurts Trump. Most people in the middle want a centrist, and Biden presents as that far more than Trump does. Now in reality Hillary was the centrist in 2016, but at that point Trump was basically an uknown, at least from a political standpoint. He isnt an uknown anymore. I think we will see a lot of the voters who switched from Obama to Trump, switch back to Biden.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

I agree. At this point, I have a hard time seeing Trump winning, I think if anything people are just wanting to get back to some sort of normalcy. But, we are still several months out so things can certainly change.

ETA: I think Trump's only real way of winning is if to many people on the left vote 3rd party, or just dont show up, which is certainly a possibility.

Usually when things are rough the left comes out of the woodwork to vote. In 1992 and 2008 when we had unemployment rates on the mid 7s, Clinton and Obama were voted in relatively comfortably. In 2000 we had an unemployment rate under 4, a balanced budget, and everyone felt they were in good shape. Less urgency to get out and vote. In 2016 we had the longest string of economic growth in the nations history. Again, no urgency. So even though Dems won the popular vote in both 2000 and 2016, it wasn’t enough of a turnout to win the presidency. This year I think there will be more urgency to return to a sense of normalcy instead of this reality show president.

 

[DAiello18]

Biden is the centrist candidate, and I think that hurts Trump. Most people in the middle want a centrist, and Biden presents as that far more than Trump does. Now in reality Hillary was the centrist in 2016, but at that point Trump was basically an uknown, at least from a political standpoint. He isnt an uknown anymore. I think we will see a lot of the voters who switched from Obama to Trump, switch back to Biden.

I would actually agree with this statement in terms of Centrist values but that is as of today. What I’ve noticed is when you get to the debates a lot of things get asked and analyzed and It can skew a candidate’s actual policies in terms of the voters eyes. So I will be interested to see Tax Policies and things of that nature come debate time

 

[Poolside Knight]

The debates aren't going to matter much at all. This election is about Trump, not Biden, and I dont see anything Trump can do at the debates that is going to change peoples opinion of him one way or the other. Trump is also a terrible debater, so even if Biden does poorly, that doesnt equate to Trump doing great.

I think many forget that the General Election has less debates and don't have the effect that they do in the primaries. Hillary debated well and it didn't matter. President Obama had that one terrible debate where it looked like he accidentally ingested a Quaalude and it didn't matter.

 

[KnighttimeJoe]

I think a lot of

Fair enough. I


i feel like It will almost certainly come down to that last part. Its not If people like Biden > Trump. I think Its can Biden get the Bernie Bro’s and Dejected Middle Grounds to show up and vote.

Trump will have his hardcore 20%, Biden will have his 20%. Will the 60% remaining even want to vote and if they do how many that show up vote for Biden.

The biggest thing Biden has going for him is that he's not Hillary. 100 million eligible voters didn't vote last time either.

Trump probably could have walked right into a second term, but his Twitter bullshit and constant putting fires out with gasoline is going to make this a lot closer and ultimately, might cost him the election.

 

[Poolside Knight]

Over/Under 5 bookmarks of this thread?

 

[firm_bizzle]

Biden has led every poll this year and his lead is growing. He may go wire to wire in first place which is unheard of. All the betting money is on Biden now.

 

[firm_bizzle]

I think many forget that the General Election has less debates and don't have the effect that they do in the primaries. Hillary debated well and it didn't matter. President Obama had that one terrible debate where it looked like he accidentally ingested a Quaalude and it didn't matter.

The debates are 90 minutes, both know their stuff. Biden does well is debates with fewer people. There might be a hiccup in the VP debate. Pence is a very good debater and Biden's VP choice will probably be a little green.

 

[UCFKnightfan08]

You do know that 1 million tickets is a kpop tictoc meme right? Im guessing not.

You do know most of those ticket requests are people doing it to troll Trump, right? They aren't actually showing up. It's going to be a repeat of his empty inauguration.

Of course not, you are an OAN listening troglodyte.

Yeah I can’t say I am up to date on anything happening on TikTok. I looked it up and it looks like there were still a shit ton of requests prior to that becoming a thing. When he came to Orlando I requested tickets, only to find out that there were like 150,000 requests - people were lined up for DAYS trying to get in. You won’t find that at a Biden rally. Regardless of how many people registered that actually want to go vs trolls, the place will be packed like it always is.

 

[Poolside Knight]

Yeah I can’t say I am up to date on anything happening on TikTok. I looked it up and it looks like there were still a shit ton of requests prior to that becoming a thing. When he came to Orlando I requested tickets, only to find out that there were like 150,000 requests - people were lined up for DAYS trying to get in. You won’t find that at a Biden rally. Regardless of how many people registered that actually want to go vs trolls, the place will be packed like it always is.

this is an election not the WWE. who cares if the 28% redneck base want to pack an indoor arena in a solid red State during a pandemic. Despite that he still lost the popular vote by 3 Million last time. Suburban upper middle class white women are who will decide this next election and they are not going to those star and bar rallies.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

this is an election not the WWE. who cares if the 28% redneck base want to pack an indoor arena in a solid red State during a pandemic. Despite that he still lost the popular vote by 3 Million last time. Suburban upper middle class white women are who will decide this next election and they are not going to those star and bar rallies.

They will no doubt pack a half million of “the silent majority” into the rally***

 

[Ace of Knights]

All polls currently show Biden as a more favorable candidate than Hillary was at this point in the lead up. That right there is bad news for Trump.

Another thing I think hurts him - there’s no one on the fence about him anymore. You know if you can vote for him or if you can’t. That wasn’t exactly the case in 2016 where the other choice was Hillary and the argument that “he’ll calm down if elected” was still being made. Obviously that didn’t happen.

Some who don’t like him will hold their nose and vote for him again, but with no Hillary, will enough?

 

[firm_bizzle]

Biden has a good margin of the recently dead vote and no ID vote.

Total rigged how he asked China for help.

 

[UCFKnightfan08]

All polls currently show Biden as a more favorable candidate than Hillary was at this point in the lead up. That right there is bad news for Trump.

Another thing I think hurts him - there’s no one on the fence about him anymore. You know if you can vote for him or if you can’t. That wasn’t exactly the case in 2016 where the other choice was Hillary and the argument that “he’ll calm down if elected” was still being made. Obviously that didn’t happen.

Some who don’t like him will hold their nose and vote for him again, but with no Hillary, will enough?

i do understand your point here but how can you say he didn’t calm down? He does tweet like crazy and I know that pisses a lot of people off (I really don’t care) but regardless leading up to the election he talked about not wanting to be in wars (but wouldn’t hesitate if he had to) and after 3.5 years in office he hasn’t been out here lobbing bombs around the globe willy nilly.

 

[fried-chicken]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fo...ublicans-enthusiastic-but-fear-motivates-dems

Trump has even lost boomers now? Damn it looks like white scumbag gen x men is the only demo he has left.

 

[DAiello18]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fo...ublicans-enthusiastic-but-fear-motivates-dems

Trump has even lost boomers now? Damn it looks like white scumbag gen x men is the only demo he has left.

You love saying White followed by an insult. I think you might actually be a racist. I mean, you always go out of your way to point of the race of people.

That being said, I think you should change your username as well. The usage of the name of food with deep ties to African Americans slaves should not be used by a white man as a message board name.

I think we would all be more comfortable here if you would stop being racist and stopped having a culturally insensitive screen name.

 

[fried-chicken]

You love saying White followed by an insult. I think you might actually be a racist. I mean, you always go out of your way to point of the race of people.

That being said, I think you should change your username as well. The usage of the name of food with deep ties to African Americans slaves should not be used by a white man as a message board name.

I think we would all be more comfortable here if you would stop being racist and stopped having a culturally insensitive screen name.

Trump voters ARE white (followed by an insult) how else should I describe them when im talking about demographics?

Also, everyone loves fried chicken. Its not a race thing, its a human thing.

 

[DAiello18]

Trump voters ARE white (followed by an insult) how else should I describe them when im talking about demographics?

Also, everyone loves fried chicken. Its not a race thing, its a human thing.

On multiple occasions you have said white (followed by an insult) to people on here and about white people in general.

Also, do your homework on the fried chicken thing, It has very racial undertones and is very insensitive of you.

You should be better.

 

[Crazyhole]

Trump voters ARE white (followed by an insult) how else should I describe them when im talking about demographics?

Also, everyone loves fried chicken. Its not a race thing, its a human thing.

Black people love fried chicken, just like they love Aunt Jemima. Both are racist bullshit terms that should be banned. You may as well change your name to Colt 45. You're literally the only person I e ever met that thinks old black people shouldn't have the right to vote.

 

[goodknightfl]

It is a long time until NOV. that said he has an uphill battle against press, Virus, economy, and himself.

 

[fried-chicken]

Yeah I can’t say I am up to date on anything happening on TikTok. I looked it up and it looks like there were still a shit ton of requests prior to that becoming a thing. When he came to Orlando I requested tickets, only to find out that there were like 150,000 requests - people were lined up for DAYS trying to get in. You won’t find that at a Biden rally. Regardless of how many people registered that actually want to go vs trolls, the place will be packed like it always is.

Bump