How to fix our SOS

[SublimeKnight]

Interesting discussion over at AACbbs. This comment (from a UH fan) got me thinking:

FYI--the UCF SOS was 72. People make a big deal out of that.

Two things nobody ever points out. That was a top 5 G5 schedule. The highest ranked G5 SOS was Navy at 67.

The second thing nobody points out is that regardless of who a G5 schedules or what they do in OOC---they will never rise much above #67 in SOS. Why? Simple math. Every P5 conference member will play at LEAST 8 games vs P5 teams---most P5's play 9 or 10. At best a G5 can play 4 P5's (most play 2 or less). Thus, every G5 will rank behind every P5 team, Notre Dame, and probably BYU in any given year. So, any G5 will always have an SOS above 66. If your going to eliminate a G5 for SOS then the G5 is effectively eliminated from the CFP (which is what I have been saying all along--I think Houston would have been eliminated by the rigged Committee or SOS just like UCF had they run the table).

One more thing worth noting, the 2016 UH schedule everyone points to as being "good enough" for UH to make the playoff----well, it was ranked #76 in SOS in 2016---worse then the 2017 UCF schedule.

The interesting part is in bold. The conclusion drawn, made me scratch my head, but I left it in for completeness. SOS is math based. The algorithm doesn't know Alabama's roster from Southern Alabama's. So why does the calculation favor P5s over G5s? What are they doing that the AAC should be? Basically, why can't an AAC in conference schedule look like a PAC12 in conference schedule to the algorithm?

I did some quick comparisons of OOC games (which the colley index provides in a great format http://www.colleyrankings.com/foot2017/rankings/conf15.html ) because that's all we can do. The results are interesting:

Compare what we do, to say the PAC12. The first thing you'll notice is how many games they play. The AAC could get a big boost in SOS by just going to 9 conference games.

Look at the FCS games, they play just as many. So they play 3 OOC vs our 4 and the game they drop for the extra conference game is not the FCS.

The bulk of their OOC schedule are G4s. Which they win almost all of. If you look at the AAC, we win almost all our G4 games too.

Our problem is that we were 4-10 vs the P5, while the PAC was 6-2. We played almost 2x the OOC P5 games! Those are the games we need to drop if we go to 9 conference games. And the ones we need to drop are the crappy one and dones.

TL;DR:
The AAC needs to go to a 9 game conference schedule and surprisingly, the OOC game we should drop is one of the P5 games.

 

[Mikesi]

FBS schools should not be allowed to play FCS schools

 

[hemightbejeremy]

Pretty much all computer rankings put the AAC schedule as #4 among all conferences in SoS. Some rankings put AAC as #5 conference in terms of rating (Wolfe puts us over the PAC 12 for example). There are many SoS rankings. The ones that look bad on UCF are the ones that are a feedback loop using ratings like ESPN FPI or some metric that takes historical rankings into account. That is why FSU is rated above Memphis and USF in that rating. Also Florida and Tennessee look like better wins than Memphis and USF to the committee so it just feeds into what they want to see.

 

[firm_bizzle]

The OP is right. The highest we can get is 67. We need to get FCS and the folks in Atlanta to put us in a kick off game every year.

 

[ucfversusbcs]

Based on this what theyre saying isif its a tie the P5 gets the edge right?

If you want to make a strong case to question this, then all AAC teams for example must win their P5 contests. Then you can take this to the CFP and say "UConn beat Mizzou and Boston College", "Navy beat ND", "UCF beat Maryaland and Ga Tech", "SMU beat TCU" and etc. These results shouldnt be discounted. That small percentage of opportunity is the only way to invert the power structure.

 

[SublimeKnight]

Pretty much all computer rankings put the AAC schedule as #4 among all conferences in SoS. Some rankings put AAC as #5 conference in terms of rating (Wolfe puts us over the PAC 12 for example). There are many SoS rankings. The ones that look bad on UCF are the ones that are a feedback loop using ratings like ESPN FPI or some metric that takes historical rankings into account. That is why FSU is rated above Memphis and USF in that rating. Also Florida and Tennessee look like better wins than Memphis and USF to the committee so it just feeds into what they want to see.

Unfortunately, there's no way to fix that, without a voice in the room. That's the UCF vs Wisconsin thing. Virtually the same SOS, but 10 places different. We can't fix that without someone in the room. The only thing we can do, is continually replicate that scenario, until the public gets it.

When you say, "UCF's schedule was as hard as Alabama", but the statistically data says: UCF #66, ALABAMA #36 it doesn't work.

 

[KnightVision82]

FBS schools should not be allowed to play FCS schools

Definitely not more than one which I believe a few did this year.

 

[SublimeKnight]

Based on this what theyre saying isif its a tie the P5 gets the edge right?

If you want to make a strong case to question this, then all AAC teams for example must win their P5 contests. Then you can take this to the CFP and say "UConn beat Mizzou and Boston College", "Navy beat ND", "UCF beat Maryaland and Ga Tech", "SMU beat TCU" and etc. These results shouldnt be discounted. That small percentage of opportunity is the only way to invert the power structure.

We are not the NFL. UCONN is not beating Penn State... they're not even going to beat illinois. At best, our teams, top to bottom are on par with P5s. We're not going to dominate them. This is about what can we do, to improve the situation, assuming AAC East does not turn into the AFC east overnight.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

Based on this what theyre saying is ranking wise if its a tie the P5 gets the edge right?

If you want to make a strong case to question this, then all AAC teams for example must win their P5 contests. Then you can take this to the CFP and say "UConn beat Mizzou and Boston College", "Navy beat ND", "UCF beat Maryaland and Ga Tech", "SMU beat TCU" and etc. That small percentage of opportunity is the only way to invert the power structure.

Like
USF beat Illinois
UCF beat Maryland
UCF beat Auburn
Navy beat Virginia
USF beat Texas Tech
Houston beat Arizona
Memphis beat UCLA
East Carolina beat NC State
UConn beat Virginia
USF beat Syracuse
Houston beat Louisville
USF beat South Carolina
Cincinnati beat Purdue
Houston beat Oklahoma
Memphis beat Kansas
Navy beat Notre Dame
Memphis beat Ole Miss
Houston beat Vanderbilt
Temple beat Penn State
Memphis beat Kansas
Houston beat Louisville
East Carolina beat Virginia Tech
Cincinnati beat Miami
USF beat Syracuse
Navy beat Pitt
Houston beat Florida State
Temple beat Vanderbilt
East Carolina beat Virginia Tech
East Carolina beat North Carolina
Cincinnati beat Purdue
UCF beat Penn State
UCF beat Baylor

truly a rare occurrence for an American team to beat a "P5" team.

 

[ucfversusbcs]

Like
USF beat Illinois
UCF beat Maryland
UCF beat Auburn
Navy beat Virginia
USF beat Texas Tech
Houston beat Arizona
Memphis beat UCLA
East Carolina beat NC State
UConn beat Virginia
USF beat Syracuse
Houston beat Louisville
USF beat South Carolina
Cincinnati beat Purdue
Houston beat Oklahoma
Memphis beat Kansas
Navy beat Notre Dame
Memphis beat Ole Miss
Houston beat Vanderbilt
Temple beat Penn State
Memphis beat Kansas
Houston beat Louisville
East Carolina beat Virginia Tech
Cincinnati beat Miami
USF beat Syracuse
Navy beat Pitt
Houston beat Florida State
Temple beat Vanderbilt
East Carolina beat Virginia Tech
East Carolina beat North Carolina
Cincinnati beat Purdue
UCF beat Penn State
UCF beat Baylor

truly a rare occurrence for an American team to beat a "P5" team.

Yes but more of it lol

 

[SublimeKnight]

Like
USF beat Illinois
UCF beat Maryland
UCF beat Auburn
Navy beat Virginia
USF beat Texas Tech
Houston beat Arizona
Memphis beat UCLA
East Carolina beat NC State
UConn beat Virginia
USF beat Syracuse
Houston beat Louisville
USF beat South Carolina
Cincinnati beat Purdue
Houston beat Oklahoma
Memphis beat Kansas
Navy beat Notre Dame
Memphis beat Ole Miss
Houston beat Vanderbilt
Temple beat Penn State
Memphis beat Kansas
Houston beat Louisville
East Carolina beat Virginia Tech
Cincinnati beat Miami
USF beat Syracuse
Navy beat Pitt
Houston beat Florida State
Temple beat Vanderbilt
East Carolina beat Virginia Tech
East Carolina beat North Carolina
Cincinnati beat Purdue
UCF beat Penn State
UCF beat Baylor

truly a rare occurrence for an American team to beat a "P5" team.

That was my point. We do well enough against the P5 teams to have good SOS. Probably much better if we cut out the "guaranteed games"

 

[ucfversusbcs]

We are not the NFL. UCONN is not beating Penn State... they're not even going to beat illinois. At best, our teams, top to bottom are on par with P5s. We're not going to dominate them. This is about what can we do, to improve the situation, assuming AAC East does not turn into the AFC east overnight.

its the obvious way.

 

[SublimeKnight]

its the obvious way.

It's also the impossible way. In fact it's what we're doing wrong today. We need to play less P5 games as a conference and we need to be selective when we do.

 

[ucfversusbcs]

It's also the impossible way. In fact it's what we're doing wrong today. We need to play less P5 games as a conference and we need to be selective when we do.

Thats bs. Tell that to Wyoming who beat Tennessee two middle of the road teams in their conference. Tell that Navy a 6-6 G5 who blasted a 6-6 P5 ACC team in their bowl. If its been done it can be improved.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

That was my point. We do well enough against the P5 teams to have good SOS. Probably much better if we cut out the "guaranteed games"

It depends who is ranking the strength of schedule. Per colley matrix (whose formula is public) UCF had the 49th ranked SoS. Washington was 74th. Ok State was 75th. Va. Tech 50th. Washington State 60th. And so on and so on. UCF only had a "poor" schedule in the eyes of biased humans, not computers. That is why UCF is #1 in Sagarin Pure ELO, #1 in colley, #2 in Anderson and Hester, #2 in Wolfe, and #3 in Billingsley Report. That's not a fluke. The people spouting off about "play an SEC schedule aren't telling PAC 12 teams to "play an SEC schedule". An undefeated PAC 12 team is undoubtedly in the playoff. A 1 loss PAC 12 team is in the discussion for a spot. An undefeated AAC team is ranked 12. It is bullshit and "scheduling better" isn't going to change anything.

 

[SublimeKnight]

Thats bs. Tell that to Wyoming who beat Tennessee two middle of the road teams in their conference. Tell that Navy a 6-6 G5 who blasted a 6-6 P5 ACC team in their bowl. If its been done it can be improved.

You're making my point. Navy, a decent AAC team, beat down a lesser ACC team on a neutral field. Navy is not beating Clemson in a one and down at Clemson with ACC refs.

We need to cut those games out as a conference.

 

[ucfversusbcs]

You're making my point. Navy, a decent AAC team, beat down a lesser ACC team on a neutral field. Navy is not beating Clemson in a one and down at Clemson with ACC refs.
We need to cut those games out as a conference.

Why do you assume i'm demanding we should schedule and win just body bag games? we need to win every ooc against the P5 - as much as we can - to make a case of inverting the power structure. I dont care if its Bama or Kansas, we need to win them.

 

[muckdawg24]

SOS should be thrown out as a measuring stick. It's absurd. It's like redneck math.

 

[SublimeKnight]

Why do you assume i'm demanding we should schedule and win just body bag games? we need to win every ooc against the P5 - as much as we can - to make a case of inverting the power structure. I dont care if its Bama or Kansas, we need to win them.

I guess I'm missing your point then. If you look at the P5s, they schedule fewer P5s OOC than we do. It's way better for us if Tulsa beats Miami-OH than if they lose annually to Oklahoma. Tulsa needs to figure out who their mirror image is in the B12 and play them (TT? Baylor?) where over a 10 year period they can be .500

 

[ucfversusbcs]

SOS should be thrown out as a measuring stick. It's absurd. It's like redneck math.

So this might have been explained earlier and if so point it out maybe it needs to be simplified for me, but if there's 10 teams with the same record how do they determine who is ranked higher because its obvious no T-1 are attached.

 

[SublimeKnight]

So this might have been explained earlier and if so point it out maybe it needs to be simplified for me, but if there's 10 teams with the same record how do they determine who is ranked higher because its obvious no T-1 are attached.

True SOS (not Steve in his basement arbitrarily ranking teams, then adding up the rankings of who they play) is basically calculated like this:
Step 1) Calculate the win % of everyone's opponents
Step 2) Using the results of Step 1, calculate the win % of the opponents' opponents.
Step 3) Combine the results of Step 1 and Step 2 with a weighting. I believe 66% opponents win percentage / 33% opponents' opponent win percentage is the usual.

This is how RPI works. NCAA takes into account road vs home vs neutral in the win % with their RPI.

 

[ucfversusbcs]

Like
USF beat Illinois
UCF beat Maryland
UCF beat Auburn
Navy beat Virginia
USF beat Texas Tech
Houston beat Arizona
Memphis beat UCLA
East Carolina beat NC State
UConn beat Virginia
USF beat Syracuse
Houston beat Louisville
USF beat South Carolina
Cincinnati beat Purdue
Houston beat Oklahoma
Memphis beat Kansas
Navy beat Notre Dame
Memphis beat Ole Miss
Houston beat Vanderbilt
Temple beat Penn State
Memphis beat Kansas
Houston beat Louisville
East Carolina beat Virginia Tech
Cincinnati beat Miami
USF beat Syracuse
Navy beat Pitt
Houston beat Florida State
Temple beat Vanderbilt
East Carolina beat Virginia Tech
East Carolina beat North Carolina
Cincinnati beat Purdue
UCF beat Penn State
UCF beat Baylor

truly a rare occurrence for an American team to beat a "P5" team.

And where did i say its a rare occurrence? I just said we need more of it to invert the power structure. For all of these wins, there's UConn losing to Missouri. When you consider the build up to this - UConn was on a 3 game win streak and Mizzou was at the tail end of a 2-5 start, this was UConn's for the taking. Disappointing loss regardless of how Mizzou finished out the season.
Then there's UConn losing to BC. I bring this up because it was late in the season and it was a good opportunity for UConn to rep our conference during UCFs undefeated run. BC was alright but not necessarily world beaters so a decent chance for UConn to stop their freefall. Of course UConn finished with 3 wins

 

[Happy Hands]

Maybe you guys should just join a better conference.

 

[UCFhonors]

Interesting discussion over at AACbbs. This comment (from a UH fan) got me thinking:


The interesting part is in bold. The conclusion drawn, made me scratch my head, but I left it in for completeness. SOS is math based. The algorithm doesn't know Alabama's roster from Southern Alabama's. So why does the calculation favor P5s over G5s? What are they doing that the AAC should be? Basically, why can't an AAC in conference schedule look like a PAC12 in conference schedule to the algorithm?

I did some quick comparisons of OOC games (which the colley index provides in a great format http://www.colleyrankings.com/foot2017/rankings/conf15.html ) because that's all we can do. The results are interesting:


TL;DR:
The AAC needs to go to a 9 game conference schedule and surprisingly, the OOC game we should drop is one of the P5 games.

I don't think that guy understand how SOS is calculated.

It's just an average of opponents' records.

 

[ucfversusbcs]

Maybe you guys should just join a better conference.

Someone told me that today at work. Breaking into a P5 office and squatting is a start.

 

[ucfversusbcs]

Here's the office.
https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2013/05/14/college-football-playoff-selects.html

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

Definitely not more than one which I believe a few did this year.

Only 1 counts towards Bowl eligibility.

 

[Mikesi]

Only 1 counts towards Bowl eligibility.

If they didn’t play any FCS schools then they would have to play more G5’s. Problem solved

Honestly, it’s completely BS. What’s to gain from scheduling those games? Take that away

 

[UCFloridaTech]

If they didn’t play any FCS schools then they would have to play more G5’s. Problem solved

Honestly, it’s completely BS. What’s to gain from scheduling those games? Take that away

4 additional W's per year

 

[UCFloridaTech]

Run billboard ads around campuses of the AP top 25 schools trolling them into scheduling a home & home series.

 

[SiberianKnightmare]

If MIssouri went undefeated, not only are they in, but they are #1, not #12.

Their SoS was 66.

Don't anyone ever tell me there isn't a P5 bias.

 

[JAFFX2]

If MIssouri went undefeated, not only are they in, but they are #1, not #12.

Their SoS was 66.

Don't anyone ever tell me there isn't a P5 bias.

This is precisely why none of this matters. As long as the 4 team format is selected by the CFP committee, NO G5 team is getting into the playoff, period!

 

[clmssun]

There is no absolute universal irrefutable "formula" for "Strength of Schedule" . There are all kinds of ways to look at one team's results and the results of their opponents and then compute SoS.

What we do NOT want as long as we are classified as G5 is the SEC and ACC going to 9 conference games! (*Nor AAC*)

 

[JAFFX2]

What we do NOT want as long as we are classified as G5 is the SEC and ACC going to 9 conference games! (*Nor AAC*)

The only thing that will do is provide more opportunities for "quality losses", so not likely they go to 9 conference games. There is no significant upside for them as long as the selection process remains the same......

 

[clmssun]

The only thing that will do is provide more opportunities for "quality losses", so not likely they go to 9 conference games. There is no significant upside for them as long as the selection process remains the same......

Unfortunately for us, I think I read that Frosty (now with his B1G interest) is criticizing the SEC and ACC for 8-game conference schedules while Pac-12, Big XII, and B1G have 9-game conference schedules.

That would not be good for UCF.

 

[Knight59]

1. Quit scheduling FCS schools. It doesn’t help at all with SOS and P5 schools seem to be headed that direction. Continuing to will only further the claims that we don’t play a strong enough schedule.
2. We obviously aren’t able to schedule 3 P5 schools for our OOC schedule. Why not get a home and home with App State or Boise? Both schools are loved by ESPN, sportswriters, etc and both are regularly scheduled against P5 schools. Both have a long history of being winners with great fans and have highly respected HCs (App’s rated #2, higher even than what’s-his-name!) The P5s always get credit for a quality win against them and would only hurt their own SOS if they tried to downplay a victory by us. It would be a win-win for both teams, playing a perennial top-rated G5 as an OOC game. Added to 2 wins vs. P5 schools would be hard to say we played a weak OOC schedule.

There are obviously other G5 schools that would be excellent but I chose these two because of the national perception of their programs. Both are always talked about on the Saturday pre-game shows. Bet the games might even make it to a major time slot.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

Better yet try to get a similar out of conference game to the big boys like Alabama. Then when the committee pulls Fresno State out of their ass to put in the top 25 with an FPI of 60 in order to boost Alabama's schedule they also are giving a boost to UCF. Looks like next year Arkansas State (Alabama) or Georgia Southern (Clemson) might be a good option. Oklahoma also plays Florida Atlantic so that could play out well.

 

[UCFBS]

Only Solution for UCF:
Get (lucky with) an invite into a "P5" conference ...
Ideally one of the "P3" (e.g., ACC or SEC) as the Big XII and PAC 12 continue to falter.
But we'll take the Big XII, especially since we'd be in a better position when it collapses.

Until then ...
It's a total crapshoot with our 1 home, 1 away, P5 games scheduled years in advance.

People need to realize this and just understand there's nothing UCFAA, Inc. can do but position us as best as we can for a P5 invite.
And that means butts in seats, because attendance and revenue means just-as-much (if not more) as on-the-field performance.

 

[clmssun]

Better yet try to get a similar out of conference game to the big boys like Alabama. Then when the committee pulls Fresno State out of their ass to put in the top 25 with an FPI of 60 in order to boost Alabama's schedule they also are giving a boost to UCF. Looks like next year Arkansas State (Alabama) or Georgia Southern (Clemson) might be a good option. Oklahoma also plays Florida Atlantic so that could play out well.

The committee made those stupid comments about Fresno State because Rules 1a, 1b, and 1c are that "Alabama, Notre Dame, and Ohio State are always elite", but Alabama's schedule of the SEC West and FSU was not impressive this year, so therefore Fresno State's prowess can/must be exaggerated.

The Committee's general perception of quality is simply "P5 is good (even at the bottom), G5 sucks (even at the top)". By default, P5 teams play 8 (minimum) other P5 teams per year. It only gets more incestuous (and therefore "stronger") as P5 conferences mandate playing more P5 teams, ostracizing the G5.

 

[clmssun]

It sucks... It seems like we are "above" and "beyond" it, but we may have to start taking lopsided scheduling agreements with P5 schools.

I would actually prefer that (if push came to shove) if we were otherwise forced to schedule FCS and lower G5 (crap) home games.