I'm the last Floridian to get spooked by hurricanes but this one looks serious. It looks pretty likely that this game will get pushed back based on the latest models. Any idea where/if it gets moved?
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Hurricane Irma
- Thread starter Stetson_1883
- Start date
Friday at 8?? Haha. This way we can all complain about the attendance again. 
![[winking]](http://l.yimg.com/j/assets/img/emoticons/classic/wink.r191677.gif "Winking [winking]")
![[laughing]](http://l.yimg.com/j/assets/img/emoticons/classic/laugh.r191677.gif "Laughing [laughing]")
Can't this crap happen midweek when I'm working?
Can't this crap happen midweek when I'm working?HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017
0900 UTC MON SEP 04 2017
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100
KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION 34 KT
ORLANDO FL X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017
0900 UTC MON SEP 04 2017
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100
KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION 34 KT
ORLANDO FL X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
So.. basically, brushing up on my meteorology skills that I learned while working at The Weather Channel, the probability is only 3% that we will get 34 knot (39 mph) winds on Saturday as of now. Correct?
I thought it was a mutual understanding that everyone in Florida is a meteorologist when a hurricane is involved.
I never worry or make plans till local weather dudes take off their suit coats and roll up their long sleeves.*
In 1999, the projected target kept being moved up the coast. So first scared Miami folks got on I-95 heading north, followed by each community further north. And the idiots running the state didn't make the roads all one-way or require gas stations to have generators like they do now. So it was gridlock all the way to Atlanta for those. This may be one of those "skirting the coast" storms some of the models are saying.
call me a homer but Florida is a sponge, wind damage is more a concern than flooding for most of this state outside of maybe Tampa Bay
Tom Schad @Tom_Schad 22m22 minutes ago
Memphis AD Tom Bowen and UCF AD Danny White spoke today about possible weather scenarios for Satuday's game. Agreed to speak again Wed.
We're waiting with bated breath. Perhaps we can win by default. Or maybe he hopes to move the game to Memphis.
Memphis will be there Friday and rumor has it playing the game Friday at 6pm EST has become an option.
Great. And we'll play on Saturday. That way, we'll save money by not having to hire refs.
Perhaps that's their point. Less home field advantage. They'll say, "take it or leave it" because they have to make travel arrangements and must commit early in the week. This sucks. If they're afraid of losing to us, just say so.
lol, we'll both do what ESPN tells us to do...of that I have no doubts.
what we want has nothing to do with it.
even if it is still played Saturday there might be some last minute no shows from the fans coming from Palm, Broward, and Dade if it hugs the East Coast
We've beaten them like 10 times in a row. It's been close 3 decades since they beat us. Either they have a healthy fear or are just terrible at math and probability. Oh wait, it's Memphis, nevermind.
There's no agreement on path, but all the models and weather experts do agree on the one thing that matters: the storm cannot affect Orlando until next week! But I could see FedEx CEO, Memphis' sugar daddy, leaning on ESPN to move it a day earlier. Remember how the Louisville Sports Mafia took our programs down when we got too big for our britches? Orlando doesn't have any big hometown corporate sponsors to protect us (Disney, Universal, Hotel Chains, Banks, DeVos all have corporate headquarters elsewhere).
Notice that Irma will be south of Miami and the Bahamas at game time regardless of its path.
Figure 5. The 0Z September 4, 2017, track forecast by the operational European model for Irma (red line, adjusted by CFAN using a proprietary technique that accounts for storm movement since 0Z), along with the track of the average of the 50 members of the European model ensemble (heavy black line), and the 50 track forecasts from the 0Z Monday European model ensemble forecast (grey lines). Image credit: CFAN.https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/threat-increasing-cuba-florida-intensifying-irma
Notice that Irma will be south of Miami and the Bahamas at game time regardless of its path.
Figure 5. The 0Z September 4, 2017, track forecast by the operational European model for Irma (red line, adjusted by CFAN using a proprietary technique that accounts for storm movement since 0Z), along with the track of the average of the 50 members of the European model ensemble (heavy black line), and the 50 track forecasts from the 0Z Monday European model ensemble forecast (grey lines). Image credit: CFAN.https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/threat-increasing-cuba-florida-intensifying-irma
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Until the noaa track prediction gets to showing 11pm Saturday night it's all just speculation. Seeing the 2 pm forecast showing the eye on the northern side of Cuba means it is a long, long way from us. The position shown for Friday 2 pm indicates it would not have moved all that much. The predictions would have to show it turning dead north and speeding up to have any impact on gametime or flights.
FL already declared state of emergency, the storm is a Cat. 4 and projected at this point to avoid any land masses that would weaken the storm. Odds are it will get stronger. Given what happened in Houston, if the current projections continue there would be mass mandatory evacuations along what counties its projected to hit. Those evacuations would probably start Saturday the latest to minimize the traffic disaster, wouldn't be surprised the state suspended activities for the weekend. Still early, but every time the projection updates it shows it more likely to make impact with FL and in a lot of cases rip through the entire state.
When you've been screwed over as much as we have, you can come back and talk about it. Here's your minor, desperately-poor city in the armpit of the nation; but despite that, Memphis enjoyed college and pro sports success for decades. Yet you're still about entitlement while we're building our programs the old fashioned way. However, now your college basketball program and attendance have collapsed, your football coach used UMemphis as a stepping stone to get the heck out, and the Big12 didn't even consider Memphis in its first cut. Reality check time. Louisville grabbed the brass ring to the ACC, W. Virginia wrangled its way into the Big12, and you and Cincy got left hanging out to dry.I'm sure you could...time to adjust the tin antennas
![[banana]](https://ct.yimg.com/mr/uploads/891/1682178.gif "banana [banana]")
Eventually, I accidentally stumble on saying something right.Best thing I've seen you write Prof!
we had a friend from Orlando that was a big UCF fan. She would come up for our games and for the Liberty Bowl. I remember it was December when UCF was accepted to the Big East and she would love to brag about how UCF wouldn't miss us in the Big East...how it was destined to happen and we should just be happy for them. Then in February Memphis was invited and we accepted...she hasn't called us since then
UCF wouldn't know what to do without Memphis around.As for Fuente...I'd much prefer Memphis being a 'cradle of coaches' over the 'coaches graveyard' we had been....
Rey Dempsey (1984–1985)...fired.
Charlie Bailey (1986–1988)...quit to avoid being fired.
Chuck Stobart (1990–1994)...quit to avoid being fired.
Rip Scherer (1995–2000)...fired.
Tommy West (2001–2009)...fired.
Larry Porter (2010–2011)...fired.
we had a friend from Orlando that was a big UCF fan. She would come up for our games and for the Liberty Bowl. I remember it was December when UCF was accepted to the Big East and she would love to brag about how UCF wouldn't miss us in the Big East...how it was destined to happen and we should just be happy for them. Then in February Memphis was invited and we accepted...she hasn't called us since then
What's the matter? Your mom's sponge bath is over and now she let you have computer time? Memphis is a butthole of a city with a declining population and declining employment rate. You should get out now while the going is good.
we had a friend from Orlando that was a big UCF fan. She would come up for our games and for the Liberty Bowl. I remember it was December when UCF was accepted to the Big East and she would love to brag about how UCF wouldn't miss us in the Big East...how it was destined to happen and we should just be happy for them. Then in February Memphis was invited and we accepted...she hasn't called us since then
As for Fuente...I'd much prefer Memphis being a 'cradle of coaches' over the 'coaches graveyard' we had been....
Rey Dempsey (1984–1985)...fired.
Charlie Bailey (1986–1988)...quit to avoid being fired.
Chuck Stobart (1990–1994)...quit to avoid being fired.
Rip Scherer (1995–2000)...fired.
Tommy West (2001–2009)...fired.
Larry Porter (2010–2011)...fired.
Is the other Memphis fan not on their board tonight and you don't have anyone to talk to? So you have to come here to find someone to talk to. I'm suprised PussyPride76 isn't there to keep you company.
If you don't like it, don't live here...I want you to live wherever makes you happiest.
Memphis' unemployment rate went from 11.8% in 2009 to 4.9% in April of 2017
You are the jackass troll on our board. I don't go to other team's boards to troll them. Hey I hear your mommy calling. It's time to give her another sponge bath, you have to go.
And remember I told you that you would be back, because we own your ass. You can't stay away. You need our attention, because you have no real friends.
