I recapped the 2018 offense with advanced stats and analytics. Pretty in depth analysis of CJH

[Money_Milton]

http://power6analytics.com/2666-2/

The sentinel gave me a midnight deadline for this so I just barely made it.

There's a lot in here and it's probably worth the read if you ask me.

There's players numbers outside of OL because there was already enough in here. But, my main point behind this was to kind of discuss how valuable this information is (I put a lot of the information in here together for personal reasons) so it was kind of the point a wanted to drive home.

It has nothing to do with thinking I know more than coaches (which many of you like to say I think I do), it also has nothing to do with wins and losses. You ask me to design a play, route combos, blocking schemes, I couldn't make one.

But, Understanding situations and what gives you the best chance to succeed is another story. IMO, ever play is a situation. A down and distance and you have to decide what gives you the best chance to be successful in that situation. It's not too difficult of a point to try and get across unless you refuse you understand it, which plenty of people do and I understand that.

If you combine these numbers (from a UCF perspective) with the defensive numbers of another team in the same situation, there's no way you can say it doesn't give your team a major advantage.

Execution is obviously important, but setting your guys up in a spot where they have the advantage in a situation limits can hide some execution lapses at times.

Two player points I made:

Taj McGowan was an animal. It's imo a disgrace he didn't get more carries, especially as a senior. I understand how good McCrae was, but there were a billion other carries that Taj could've gotten a share of. On 1st and 10 runs he was 16-22 in terms of success rate and averaged 7+ ypc. That's stupid good.

Another was Otis. I think highly of him as a football player and think Heupel kind of unverstalied his versatility based off his usage based on personnel. Kind of saying that, he was either on the field as a true WR or a true RB and never as a guy who could be both at the same time, something he was last season.

As always I'll answer any question. I don't care if you don't read it, it's long as shit, but I think you should.

 

[JAFFX2]

Can you explain where/how you get your passing stats? When comparing attempts/completions and % to what is published I see different numbers......

 

[Money_Milton]

Can you explain where/how you get your passing stats? When comparing attempts/completions and % to what is published I see different numbers......

Well one, I only use FBS games so SC st is not included. For Ypa I use every attempt.

For air yards/aDot I take out all throw aways because I chart those as 0 yards so it would obviously skew data. There is also no “target” on TAs.

For accuracy my formula is accurate completions + drops / (inaccurate completions + incompletions) - throw aways + spikes . It’s essentially just a form of an adjusted completion %.

 

[muckdawg24]

Great article! Perhaps CJH reads this for great self evaluation. Definitely now that he has a full season under his belt he will realize where he can utilize more of the players' skillsets. Do you realize how ridiculous our team can be once we actually get humming?

 

[firm_bizzle]

Great article! Perhaps CJH reads this for great self evaluation. Definitely now that he has a full season under his belt he will realize where he can utilize more of the players' skillsets. Do you realize how ridiculous our team can be once we actually get humming?

CJH would have to really humble himself to do that but it is always good to get an outside perceptive of how you performed and it's "annoymous".

 

[muckdawg24]

Well I'm kidding about Heup reading it but I think any good coach would welcome a review or have a period of self reflection. I'm excited to see year two because I'm thinking we'll see a similar jump like we saw with Frost.

 

[Poolside Knight]

Well I'm kidding about Heup reading it but I think any good coach would welcome a review or have a period of self reflection. I'm excited to see year two because I'm thinking we'll see a similar jump like we saw with Frost.

well he got fired by his Alma Mater bc of his playcalling.....if that isn’t a wake up call to not go square peg I don’t know what is

 

[firm_bizzle]

well he got fired by his Alma Mater bc of his playcalling.....if that isn’t a wake up call to not go square peg I don’t know what is

They don't play defense and he had no control over the defense, here he does. They were still putting up points at UO, just not enough to win games. Randy Shannon>Mike Stoops

 

[KnightVision82]

Good analysis. It's easy to 2nd guess play calls so I won't comment on this other than not sure why Heup seemed to call a lot of AK runs up the middle on 1st downs this season?

Use of AK and Otis needs to improve, Getting #17 the ball more often should be a goal even if it means making him a short distance RB for us in addition to Thompson. Lastly, we have a new set of speedsters that will be seeing some playing time this season which I'm very excited about to see

I think Heup is in a good situation going into the off season with upgrade from clown car to clown bus...

 

[hemightbejeremy]

well he got fired by his Alma Mater bc of his playcalling.....if that isn’t a wake up call to not go square peg I don’t know what is

Nope. Not even close. He got fired as a scapegoat for a defense that allowed 30+ points in 5 straight to end the 2014 season. It turns out the defensive coordinator was the head coaches brother. The Oklahoma offense averaged 39 points per game that year. The defensive coordinator was the guy fired this year for having one of the worst defenses in the nation.

 

[Poolside Knight]

Nope. Not even close. He got fired as a scapegoat for a defense that allowed 30+ points in 5 straight to end the 2014 season. It turns out the defensive coordinator was the head coaches brother. The Oklahoma offense averaged 39 points per game that year. The defensive coordinator was the guy fired this year for having one of the worst defenses in the nation.

Heupel got fired after putting up only 6 points vs Clemson in a Bowl game. I'll let Oklahoma fans chime in that actually watched every Oklahoma game

Lincoln Riley just Coached 2 straight Heisman winners so it obviously has worked out for Oklahoma despite having the Defense constantly be an issue.

The point is he got fired by his Alma Mater and had to regroup in the Mountain West then Mizzou. His path was a little more rocky than most rising Young Head Coaches like Scott Frost or Tom Herman. Coaches that turn great adjust, we'll see what Season 2 brings on offense without Milton.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

Heupel got fired after putting up only 6 points vs Clemson in a Bowl game. I'll let Oklahoma fans chime in that actually watched every Oklahoma game

Yeah, probably a good idea.

https://newsok.com/article/5382183/oklahoma-football-josh-heupel-the-sacrificial-lamb

 

[Poolside Knight]

Yeah, probably a good idea.

https://newsok.com/article/5382183/oklahoma-football-josh-heupel-the-sacrificial-lamb

don't get so defensive anytime anyone questions the coaching staff, we all root for the same team. I don't think many Oklahoma fans are going to complain about the change to Lincoln Riley given the last 2 seasons.

 

[firm_bizzle]

Yeah, probably a good idea.

https://newsok.com/article/5382183/oklahoma-football-josh-heupel-the-sacrificial-lamb

Huep had trouble recruiting QBs back then too. Sigh.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

don't get so defensive anytime anyone questions the coaching staff, we all root for the same team. I don't think many Oklahoma fans are going to complain about the change to Lincoln Riley given the last 2 seasons.

What was the questioning of the coaching staff? Was just correcting your honest mistake of what precipitated Heupel’s firing. Oklahoma had QB injury issues so went to a rushing attack and put up 270 rushing yards per game and 39 points. Meanwhile the defense didn’t rank in the top 50 and struggled down the stretch. In an 8-5 year someone had to go. It wasn’t the coaches brother. Although he was fired later for having another awful defense. I’m sure Oklahoma fans are not satisfied with how thing turned out 100% since the defense is still terrible and they haven’t won a CFP for that reason. And they squandered probably 2 #1 overall NFL draft picks at the QB position.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

Huep had trouble recruiting QBs back then too. Sigh.

I know you are making a joke, but Heupel recruited a top 8 QB in the nation 4 times. Trevor Knight (the QB in 2014 who missed time with injury) was the #11 QB on his class. I believe Gabriel is the highest rated UCF QB coming out of high school and Wimbush is the highest rated QB at UCF ever.

 

[Poolside Knight]

What was the questioning of the coaching staff? Was just correcting your honest mistake of what precipitated Heupel’s firing. Oklahoma had QB injury issues so went to a rushing attack and put up 270 rushing yards per game and 39 points. Meanwhile the defense didn’t rank in the top 50 and struggled down the stretch. In an 8-5 year someone had to go. It wasn’t the coaches brother. Although he was fired later for having another awful defense. I’m sure Oklahoma fans are not satisfied with how thing turned out 100% since the defense is still terrible and they haven’t won a CFP for that reason. And they squandered probably 2 #1 overall NFL draft picks at the QB position.

wasn't the Oklahoma Defense ranked worse this season and they lost 1 game in the regular season? I don't think being in the Final 4 Invitational 2 years straight is squandering talent, as shown by Jalen Hurts wanting to play there Lincoln maximizes it

maybe I'll post the question on the national board to see Sooner fans chime in on the differences between Heupel and Riley's playcalling or if they are equals and he got scapegoated & what changed by the time he got to Mizzou

 

[hemightbejeremy]

wasn't the Oklahoma Defense ranked worse this season and they lost 1 game in the regular season? I don't think being in the Final 4 Invitational 2 years straight is squandering talent, as shown by Jalen Hurts wanting to play there Lincoln maximizes it

maybe I'll post the question on the national board to see Sooner fans chime in on the differences between Heupel and Riley's playcalling or if they are equals and he got scapegoated & what changed by the time he got to Mizzou

I’m not sure what you are looking for. Nobody would argue that Heupels offense in 2014 was better than Oklahoma’s offense in 2017 and 2018 (two years where they had #1 NFL draft picks at QB and by far the best offense in the nation). That wasn’t even close to the argument. With the best offense in the country they still fell short due to their defense. If you asked Oklahoma fans if they should have fired Stoop’s brother after 2014 what do you think they are going to say? Pose the question I guess.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

Not sure I ever said Riley and Heupel were equal either. Too early to judge Heupel on one season ranked 11th. In 4 seasons as OC, Oklahoma finished outside the top 15 just once, in 2014. The year before they finished 6th after putting up 45 against #3 Alabama in the bowl game. In 2014 they lost 3 regular season games (of their 4 losses) by 4 points or less while scoring 30+ each game. Could have been a very different outcome for all involved if they get a couple bounces that year.

I’m just giving my opinion on why he was fired (an opinion shared by many others). Oklahoma absolutely hit a home run hiring Riley, and the decision turned out great for them in hindsight.

 

[Poolside Knight]

Not sure I ever said Riley and Heupel were equal either. Too early to judge Heupel on one season ranked 11th. In 4 seasons as OC, Oklahoma finished outside the top 15 just once, in 2014. The year before they finished 6th after putting up 45 against #3 Alabama in the bowl game. In 2014 they lost 3 regular season games (of their 4 losses) by 4 points or less while scoring 30+ each game. Could have been a very different outcome for all involved if they get a couple bounces that year.

I’m just giving my opinion on why he was fired (an opinion shared by many others). Oklahoma absolutely hit a home run hiring Riley, and the decision turned out great for them in hindsight.

I'm just curious about the RPO usage difference, screens, etc. I haven't watched enough of Oklahoma week 2 week to see what Riley does differently even if the season stat line might end up similar.

also I know being an OC unders Stoops is different than being a Head Coach. Another thing that we haven't considered that might be a good move is playcalling duties, I'm wondering if Heup may consider eventually not calling the plays and being more of a ceo with the occasional input on the offense. Would Lebby be qualified enough to start calling plays?

 

[firm_bizzle]

I'm just curious about the RPO usage difference, screens, etc. I haven't watched enough of Oklahoma week 2 week to see what Riley does differently even if the season stat line might end up similar.

also I know being an OC unders Stoops is different than being a Head Coach. Another thing that we haven't considered that might be a good move is playcalling duties, I'm wondering if Heup may consider eventually not calling the plays and being more of a ceo with the occasional input on the offense. Would Lebby be qualified enough to start calling plays?

I want LRB calling plays if Heup isn't.

 

[Knight_Light]

Good info.

One thing about McGowan is that many/most of his carries occured in the 2nd half of games...most involving games were UCF had big leads...as opposing defenses were obviously tired (and in a few cases, given up).

McGowan obviously had one of the biggest plays of the season (71 yd TD run on 4th and 1 from UCF's 29 yd line at Memphis)...as that single run accounted for more than 15% of this total yards for the season. (I also think thats when the team REALLY bought into what Heupel was selling..."lets go bone here".)



Every HC has a madness to the system...as you have to run "up the middle" in RPO to keep defenses honest, plus, the way Heupel used backs...he was able to keep McCrae/AK "fresh".

All know that Heupel's offense was much faster than Frost...used a lot less substitutions...which meant less PT for some WR and RB's...but in the end, that offense worked.

 

[Money_Milton]

Good info.

One thing about McGowan is that many/most of his carries occured in the 2nd half of games...most involving games were UCF had big leads...as opposing defenses were obviously tired (and in a few cases, given up).

McGowan obviously had one of the biggest plays of the season (71 yd TD run on 4th and 1 from UCF's 29 yd line at Memphis)...as that single run accounted for more than 15% of this total yards for the season. (I also think thats when the team REALLY bought into what Heupel was selling..."lets go bone here".)

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Every HC has a madness to the system...as you have to run "up the middle" in RPO to keep defenses honest, plus, the way Heupel used backs...he was able to keep McCrae/AK "fresh".

All know that Heupel's offense was much faster than Frost...used a lot less substitutions...which meant less PT for some WR and RB's...but in the end, that offense worked.

Ohhh gotcha so what’s your excuse for his 73% success rate and 5.69 ypc for his 26 carries in the 1h? A 42/58% split isn’t that crazy. Every RB but AK probably had more of their carries come in the 2h but let’s only discredit Taj

 

[Knight_Light]

Every RB but AK probably had more of their carries come in the 2h but let’s only discredit Taj

Who said anything about discrediting anyone? All I did was post a fact...i.e. most of his carries came in the 2nd half (and any UCF fan would know that UCF "ran the ball/game" out a lot in the 2nd half of games).

Also, game rotations vs particular opponents (especially 1st half) also gave insight into Heupel's game plans...as sometimes they varied for obvious reasons.

When Taj was in the game...that basically eliminated the idea of a RB screen/rollout or even fly pattern...something UCF did very well with AK and a few times with McCrae/Anderson...as Taj was obviously UCF's "big" back.

Most teams (including UCF) needed multiple RB's...and hopefully with different "styles" to force the opposition to split up their preparation time as they normally won't have time to really focus on all of them.