Is Donald going to make a Comeback?

[DaShuckster]

Just curious what our GOPers think a couple weeks out.

Is Trump going to shock the world again or is this election — as opposed to the last one — as ‘fixed’ as Trump declares its gonna be?

 

[firm_bizzle]

Yes! It starts today in Sanford! MAGA!

 

[Crazyhole]

I dont think he has ever actually been behind. I could see him winning every state he won in 2016 plus Minnesota.

 

[firm_bizzle]

Can he win the dead vote? Or overcome republican area ballots in the dumpster?

And Antifa/MS-13, Hillary's emails and Obama? Such an uphill climb.

 

[DaShuckster]

Then back to China walking all over us again.

BACK to China walking all over us?

Apparently, you stay abreast with world developments through Fox News. News Update: China handed Trump his ass. Government payments to farmers have surged to an all-time high in an effort to stem the financial losses they experienced as a result of Trump's tariff fights.

 

[Crazyhole]

Can he win the dead vote? Or overcome republican area ballots in the dumpster?

Neither will be much of an issue.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

This is just someone who got caught. Impossible to catch this since there would be zero tracking.

NJ mailman allegedly tossed 99 election ballots into dumpster

A New Jersey postman was busted for throwing out hundreds of pieces of mail — including almost a hundred election ballots, federal authorities charged Wednesday. Nicholas Beauchene, 26, whose route…

www.google.com

That’s just some lazy dude throwing all mail out. Not election fraud. The area this occurred, Democrats outnumber Republicans 4-1. Democrats also outnumber Republicans across the board in mail in vs in person balloting during a pandemic. Any loss of ballots in this situation is a net positive for the GOP. NJ is not really a state that’s in play though.

 

[firm_bizzle]

BACK to China walking all over us?

Apparently, you stay abreast with world developments through Fox News. News Update: China handed Trump his ass. Government payments to farmers have surged to an all-time high in an effort to stem the financial losses they experienced as a result of Trump's tariff fights.

Nonsense. Focus on Benghazi and Hillary's emails.

 

[NinjaKnight]

Nonsense. Focus on Benghazi and Hillary's emails.

And of course the coming antifa siege on our suburbs.

This could end up bigger than the Mexican caravan invasion. Soon we will all be speaking Spanish and drinking soy lattes.

 

[Crazyhole]

56% of Americans say they are better off than they were 4 years ago

Trump has the same approval rating as Obama and is facing a weaker candidate

GDP predictions show a 34% jump in Q3

Excitement for Trump is higher than it was in 2016

Unemployment is half of what it was in June

You would think these metrics would indicate a Trump win. Its odd that the polls don't reflect this.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

What this particular circumstance it is impossible to know if ballots will go "missing". Nobody would put a thousand dollars cash in the mail. It is setup for fraud on either side

But someone would put a method of payment with verifiable receipt like a check into the mail. And do all the time. People can track receipt of a ballot and if they don’t get one can request another one. It’s why they are sent so far ahead of the election. On the other end a person who mails a ballot can track receipt of their ballot. If something goes wrong they can vote in person.

 

[DaShuckster]

You would think these metrics would indicate a Trump win. Its odd that the polls don't reflect this.

Yeah, it's a real mystery.

 

[firm_bizzle]

And of course the coming antifa siege on our suburbs.

This could end up bigger than the Mexican caravan invasion. Soon we will all be speaking Spanish and drinking soy lattes.

Habla por ti mismo, ya estoy bebiendo lattes de soja.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

56% of Americans say they are better off than they were 4 years ago

Trump has the same approval rating as Obama and is facing a weaker candidate

GDP predictions show a 34% jump in Q3

Excitement for Trump is higher than it was in 2016

Unemployment is half of what it was in June

You would think these metrics would indicate a Trump win. Its odd that the polls don't reflect this.

Obama approval was 51/49 before the 2012 election. Trump currently around 44%. Even the GOP favorite Rasmussen poll has him at 49/51.

 

[Crazyhole]

Obama approval was 51/49 before the 2012 election. Trump currently around 44%. Even the GOP favorite Rasmussen poll has him at 49/51.

What I see for October 6- October 25 of 2012, Obama had approvals of 47, 44, 44, 46, 46, 40, 46, 43, and 47.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

What I see for October 6- October 25 of 2012, Obama had approvals of 47, 44, 44, 46, 46, 40, 46, 43, and 47.

gallup

	Approve	Disapprove	No opinion
	%	%	%
2012 Dec 24-30	53	41	6
2012 Dec 17-23	57	37	7
2012 Dec 10-16	52	40	8
2012 Dec 3-9	50	44	6
2012 Nov 26-Dec 2	51	42	6
2012 Nov 19-25	52	40	8
2012 Nov 12-18	53	41	6
2012 Nov 5-11	51	43	6
2012 Oct 29-Nov 4	52	45	3
2012 Oct 22-28	50	45	5
2012 Oct 15-21	50	45	5
2012 Oct 8-14	50	45	6
2012 Oct 1-7	52	43	5

 

[Crazyhole]

What I see for October 6- October 25 of 2012, Obama had approvals of 47, 44, 44, 46, 46, 40, 46, 43, and 47.

Trumps polls starting October 6 are 45, 46, 43, 42, 45, 47, 45, 49

Trump has an average of 45.375, Obama was at 44.77

 

[DaShuckster]

Trump has an average of 45.375, Obama was at 44.77

Proof positive that Trump is gonna win, baby!!! 👍

 

[Crazyhole]

Proof positive that Trump is gonna win, baby!!! 👍

No, its just another indicator that should make us question the election polls. Incumbents typically outpace their approval rating, so it seems odd that many polls have him in the low 40s.

One way or another, the methodology of polls will be in question after the election.

 

[Crazyhole]

Just a reminder of what polls looked like in 2016.



Trump outperformed the polling by double digits in at least 4 states.

 

[DaShuckster]

Just a reminder of what polls looked like in 2016.

Trump outperformed the polling by double digits in at least 4 states.

Good point! And just like 2016, Biden is as universally disliked as much as Hillary was.

 

[Crazyhole]

Good point! And just like 2016, Biden is as universally disliked as much as Hillary was.

Just curious. If Trump wins, what will be the reason?

 

[DaShuckster]

Just curious. If Trump wins, what will be the reason?

If Trump wins this year, this country is more batshit crazy than I thought.

 

[Crazyhole]

If Trump wins this year, this country is more batshit crazy than I thought.

So last time it was Hillarys fault, this time it would be America's fault. It wouldn't have anything to do with Biden?

 

[DaShuckster]

So last time it was Hillarys fault, this time it would be America's fault. It wouldn't have anything to do with Biden?

Quite candidly, my gut was telling me at this time four years ago that Trump could pull off the upset. I supported Hillary, but I was disgusted by her self-inflicted wound with the private email server fiasco. I also had a sneaking suspicion going back to the primaries that she wasn't nearly as strong with blue collar workers in the rust belt as her campaign thought. Lastly, I viewed the Brexit vote as a 'omigawd' wake-up call that a similar craziness outbreak could happen here.

This time? I believe the outcome is a foregone conclusion.

However, I'm VERY nervous about the aftermath of Biden's victory in the electoral college and popular vote. Trump has been making it clear on the campaign trail that he's going to claim voter fraud and seek to invalidate the vote once it's clear he's lost. How THAT will play out between the election and inauguration day is anybody's guess. I worry it could get embarrassingly ugly before its all over.

 

[Boosted87]

Hillary did show some pretty wide leads over Biden. But the race was never stable. Trump even had a lead in the RCP average at one point. Biden's lead is just far more robust and stable.

This is the biggest polling advantage by a challenger in the era of scientific polling (since 1936). Clinton's lead in '92 was about 5 pts compared to Biden's 10+.

Trump had a very narrow path to election in 2016 and it looks even narrower in 2020.

I think 538's model is as good of a handicap as you're going to find. They have Biden at 86%.

 

[Crazyhole]

Hillary did show some pretty wide leads over Biden. But the race was never stable. Trump even had a lead in the RCP average at one point. Biden's lead is just far more robust and stable.

This is the biggest polling advantage by a challenger in the era of scientific polling (since 1936). Clinton's lead in '92 was about 5 pts compared to Biden's 10+.

Trump had a very narrow path to election in 2016 and it looks even narrower in 2020.

I think 538's model is as good of a handicap as you're going to find. They have Biden at 86%.

Florida democrats have lost 80% of their registration edge since 2008, and yet there is a poll that shows Biden winning by 11%. Pennsylvania dems have lost their edge by over 50% in that time frame but polls show Biden up by 7%.

How does this make sense? Trump won 88% of the republican vote in 2016 but now he's only going to get 76% in 2020 even with a surge in republican registration. I would like someone to explain why people would register republican at higher rates than normal only to increasingly vote Democrat.

 

[Boosted87]

Florida democrats have lost 80% of their registration edge since 2008, and yet there is a poll that shows Biden winning by 11%. Pennsylvania dems have lost their edge by over 50% in that time frame but polls show Biden up by 7%.

How does this make sense? Trump won 88% of the republican vote in 2016 but now he's only going to get 76% in 2020 even with a surge in republican registration. I would like someone to explain why people would register republican at higher rates than normal only to increasingly vote Democrat.

The voter registration is a big question mark - I agree. Are those genuinely new voters or are they Trump 2016 voters making their support more formal? Probably a combination.

Trump's strategy is to double down on his base. Non college educated white voters make up a huge chunk of the electorate, but are actually expected to decrease this year vs 2016 (like 41% vs 45% or so).

At the same time, he's bleeding support just about everywhere else. He needs to turn them out his base at a rate that overcomes the demographic shifts AND makes up for the support he's losing in other demographics.

All this while not running against Hillary. Turnout is looking to be really high which should - on net - benefit Biden.

 

[Crazyhole]

The voter registration is a big question mark - I agree. Are those genuinely new voters or are they Trump 2016 voters making their support more formal? Probably a combination.

Trump's strategy is to double down on his base. Non college educated white voters make up a huge chunk of the electorate, but are actually expected to decrease this year vs 2016 (like 41% vs 45% or so).

At the same time, he's bleeding support just about everywhere else. He needs to turn them out his base at a rate that overcomes the demographic shifts AND makes up for the support he's losing in other demographics.

All this while not running against Hillary. Turnout is looking to be really high which should - on net - benefit Biden.

Hillary got the same number of votes as Obama in 2012. I think the idea of Clinton turning voters off is a bit of a fallacy. Obama had huge turnout in 2008 because he was a transformational, charismatic candidate. Biden doesn't have that advantage.

 

[Boosted87]

Hillary got the same number of votes as Obama in 2012. I think the idea of Clinton turning voters off is a bit of a fallacy. Obama had huge turnout in 2008 because he was a transformational, charismatic candidate. Biden doesn't have that advantage.

NYT Upshot has a good analysis in the Northern Swing states. They've got like 5,000+ voters that as a group were +3% for Trump in 2016, and they break down how Biden ends up +6% with this same group of voters.

It's primarily a combination of vote-flipping and minor party voters breaking to support Biden.

Behind the NYT paywall so I'll break it down.

• Initial sample is a group that went Trump +3% in 2016
• Vote flippers give a huge edge to Biden by +43%. This alone swings the vote in his favor by 6% - so he's now +3%.
• Minor party voters are supporting Biden +34%. This swings him +2%, so now he's +5%.
• People who didn't vote in '16 but plan to this time, combined with people who voted in '16 but say they won't this year, gives Biden +1% more.

It all nets out to a group that went Trump +3% over Clinton going Biden +6% over Trump - so a 9% swing.

Trump Defectors Help Biden Build Leads in Wisconsin and Michigan (Published 2020)

New polls show Biden is gaining in the Northern battlegrounds among white voters.

www.nytimes.com

 

[_glaciers]

SPOILER ALERT: the sitting President doesn't have to make a comeback, he's already won

 

[Crazyhole]

Trafalgar, the pollster that was the most accurate in swing states in 2016, has Trump up by 1 in Michigan.

 

[firm_bizzle]

He's going all out for the last debate. Will be the best debate ever!

 

[Knight_Classes_begin_7pm]

BACK to China walking all over us?

Apparently, you stay abreast with world developments through Fox News. News Update: China handed Trump his ass. Government payments to farmers have surged to an all-time high in an effort to stem the financial losses they experienced as a result of Trump's tariff fights.

Fox Faux News...the republican propaganda machine

 

[DaShuckster]

When 9 days out, Trump is telling his rallies "Covid, Covid, Covid!!! That's all the MSM talk about. But on November 4th, it'll magically disappear", you know it's over.

Hell, Pence's COS caught the virus over the weekend, and the Veep is STILL out campaigning instead of following the covid protocols and quarantining -- And HE is the head of the Covid 19 task force for crying out loud. Way to lead by example there, Pence!!! These jokers literally have no clue.

The sad thing is that we're still months away from President Biden's mask mandate, one that should have been put in place eight months ago.

 

[_glaciers]

When 9 days out, Trump is telling his rallies "Covid, Covid, Covid!!! That's all the MSM talk about. But on November 4th, it'll magically disappear", you know it's over.

Hell, Pence's COS caught the virus over the weekend, and the Veep is STILL out campaigning instead of following the covid protocols and quarantining -- And HE is the head of the Covid 19 task force for crying out loud. Way to lead by example there, Pence!!! These jokers literally have no clue.

The sad thing is that we're still months away from President Biden's mask mandate, one that should have been put in place eight months ago.

Biden being embroiled in a record amount of corruption and sex scandals, and you're still worried about a cold.

This is why yall lost.

 

[DaShuckster]

Biden being embroiled in a record amount of corruption and sex scandals, and you're still worried about a cold.

We sure as hell have it covered here.

Let me guess: It's a crying shame nobody outside your nutjob right wing bubble is listening to this bullshit, right?

 

[Crazyhole]

We sure as hell have it covered here.

Let me guess: It's a crying shame nobody outside your nutjob right wing bubble is listening to this bullshit, right?

Let's see, we have videotape of Bidens son getting a foot job from a 14 year old Chinese prostitute. Sounds like the kind of thing a foreign government might use to blackmail a president, yet you are obsessed with a cold virus that almost everyone survives. If you think it's not real, I'm sure someone here would be happy to link to the video.

 

[DaShuckster]

If you think it's not real, I'm sure someone here would be happy to link to the video.

I'm not into celebrity porn, real or fake. I gotta give Russia credit for giving it the 'good ole college try' though.

Thank God, this kind of filth will be over in another week.

 

[Crazyhole]

I'm not into celebrity porn, real or fake. I gotta give Russia credit for giving it the 'good ole college try' though.

Thank God, this kind of filth will be over in another week.

I wonder of Joe loves his son enough to put our National security at risk to protect him. These pictures and videos exist for a reason, and it wasn't because hunter thought it would be fun to keep them for posterity.