Jumped 10 in RPI, 5-1 vs. top 100, 9-1 at home, post-season chances

[UCFProf]

13-4 overall, 4-1 in AAC, have fewest losses in AAC against top-100 teams (Cincy is 7-2, we're 5-1).
Biggest home games left: SMU Jan 25, Memphis Feb 4, UConn Feb 11 (revenge), and Cincy Feb 26.
Now 76th in Sagarin, 78th in RPI, but meat of schedule in last 13 games will help SOS.
Looking forward (of course, if win conference tourney, get automatic berth in NCAA tourney):
7-6 rest of the way, 0-1 in conference tourney: get us to 20-11
7-6 rest of the way, 1-1 in conference tourney: get us to 21-11
8-5 rest of the way, 0-1 in conference tourney: get us to 21-10
8-5 rest of the way, 1-1 in conference tourney: get us to 22-10
9-4 rest of the way, 1-1 in conference tourney: get us to 23-9
9-4 rest of the way, 2-1 in conference tourney: get us to 24-9
10-3 rest of the way, 1-1 in conference tourney: get us to 24-8
10-3 rest of the way, 2-1 in conference tourney: get us to 25-8
Last year, AAC sent 4 teams to the Big Dance, but might only get 3? Right now, tied for 2nd in conference, tied for 3rd best overall, 5 top 100 wins ("quality" wins), but at present would be on the bubble and quite likely miss but make the NIT.

 

[UCFhonors]

This is fun to predict ahead when we are winning.

Good wins and not having bad losses are key going forward.

8 of our next 13 games are against teams in the top half of the league.

After USF on Tuesday (W), we face a brutal 6 game stretch. Only 2 of them are at home. Splitting those 6 would be great. Win 1 at home and 1 against Tulsa away and 1 against Houston away is my prediction.

So that puts us at 17-7 with UConn at home next.

The next 4 seem to be doable with 3 games against the bottom 5 of the league. 21-7

Then Cincinnati and USF to close out the regular season. 22-8 (13-5).

Last year 14-4 was first, 13-5 was second and 12-6 was 3-5 in the league.

So say we get #2 in the league. In Round 2 in the AAC tourney gives us a 7-10 seed matchup. Win. Then a 3 or 6 seed matchup. Win. Loss in final.

24-9 (15-6). Phenomenal year if that happens.

That's basically Tulsa last year. They were on the bubble and got into the NCAA. They were the first four in and lost to Michigan.



Just saw on ESPNU an AAC breakdown that we should've had 5 teams in the NCAA tourney last year (SMU banned) and this year could see 5 teams IN. Nice little showcase of UCF at the end. We are the surprise team this year.

I thought we could 5-7th in the league before the season. Top half before conference play. Now #2 seems possible.

Such an exciting season!

 

[UCFProf]

What a nice analysis, honors! Houston was our first ever quality conference win in the AAC (we didn't beat Houston before, but they were only so-so then). Going 9-4 the rest of the way would be a dream come true. But what a nice reward any post-season tourney would be for the 4 players in their final year on the team!

Prior to yesterday, our biggest conference win was in the C-USA over an excellent Memphis team here on Keith's last-minute put back in front of an insanely loud packed house. Yesterday's crowd seemed almost startled and in awe that we came out so strongly and didn't fold after each Houston run -- that's how accustomed we'd gotten to disappointment. Playing like we belong and winning like we deserve to.

 

[KNIGHTTIME^]

This season has already exceeded expectations. NCAA might be a huge long shot after losing to uconn but the fact that it is even a conversation is shocking this late in the season.

 

[UCFProf]

This season has already exceeded expectations. NCAA might be a huge long shot after losing to uconn but the fact that it is even a conversation is shocking this late in the season.

Perhaps we're making you into a believer, too, so the next step is becoming a dreamer. Great seasons in basketball are about a magical chemistry. Don't question it. Just hitch your wagon and ride it to the very end, and who knows? Then you'll have something to look back on that great season nobody thought was possible.

The next step is to get the Orlando area, alums, students, and the media bought in. We were page 4 at the bottom of Sentinel sports today -- arguably the most important home victory ever -- located below the much bigger story about a non-local team losing out of state.

Turning us into a hot ticket can happen in no time at all -- it's happened several times before. Today with cell phones and social media, it can occur in a single week. At this moment, 20,000 people may be claiming they attended yesterday's game. Excuse me while I post on social media.

 

[goodknightfl]

I doubt the AAC gets more than 3 in. I would love to be in the 3, but all considered, I will happily run off to NIT land.

 

[UCFProf]

I doubt the AAC gets more than 3 in. I would love to be in the 3, but all considered, I will happily run off to NIT land.

Ironically, Dawkins was fired for ONLY winning NITs. At present, Stanford is only 9-8 and ranked below us despite their killer OOC schedule. Don't you think Johnny would be oh so pleased if he made in to the Big Dance in his first season with an 7-scholarship squad of previous losers. Let's cheer them on for us, them, and Dawkins staff.

 

[UCFhonors]

This is fun to predict ahead when we are winning.

Good wins and not having bad losses are key going forward.

8 of our next 13 games are against teams in the top half of the league.

After USF on Tuesday (W), we face a brutal 6 game stretch. Only 2 of them are at home. Splitting those 6 would be great. Win 1 at home and 1 against Tulsa away and 1 against Houston away is my prediction.

So that puts us at 17-7 with UConn at home next.

The next 4 seem to be doable with 3 games against the bottom 5 of the league. 21-7

Then Cincinnati and USF to close out the regular season. 22-8 (13-5).

Last year 14-4 was first, 13-5 was second and 12-6 was 3-5 in the league.

So say we get #2 in the league. In Round 2 in the AAC tourney gives us a 7-10 seed matchup. Win. Then a 3 or 6 seed matchup. Win. Loss in final.

24-9 (15-6). Phenomenal year if that happens.

That's basically Tulsa last year. They were on the bubble and got into the NCAA. They were the first four in and lost to Michigan.



Just saw on ESPNU an AAC breakdown that we should've had 5 teams in the NCAA tourney last year (SMU banned) and this year could see 5 teams IN. Nice little showcase of UCF at the end. We are the surprise team this year.

I thought we could 5-7th in the league before the season. Top half before conference play. Now #2 seems possible.

Such an exciting season!

So we ended up going 1-5 in that brutal 6 game stretch that I hoped to go 3-3. Since this thread was created we have gone 3-6. We should be favored in 3 of the next 4 game so that would put us at 6-7 over these 13 games. Not the results we were hoping for.

Now it's a battle to not get be the 7th seed in the AAC tourney. Here are the standing as of 2/15/2017

1. SMU
2. Cincy
3. Houston 9-4
4. Memphis 8-5
5. UConn 7-5
6. UCF 7-7
7. Tulsa 6-7

Using current standing to project who wins the rest of games and final conference Standings

1. SMU
2. Cincy
3. Houston 12-10
4. Memphis 10-8
5. UCF 10-8
6. UConn 9-9
7. Tulsa 9-9

I almost rather be 6th seed and miss the bye game for another "easy" win to get to 20 wins than be 5th who faces the 4th seed. We have a bye week before the tourney.

Yes looking at deeper, if UConn is 5th seed and we are 6th seed we avoid home team UConn in the tourney until the end. Way better overall to be the 6th seed for us.

 

[Knight_Classes_begin_7pm]

13-4 overall, 4-1 in AAC, have fewest losses in AAC against top-100 teams (Cincy is 7-2, we're 5-1).
Biggest home games left: SMU Jan 25, Memphis Feb 4, UConn Feb 11 (revenge), and Cincy Feb 26.
Now 76th in Sagarin, 78th in RPI, but meat of schedule in last 13 games will help SOS.
Looking forward (of course, if win conference tourney, get automatic berth in NCAA tourney):
7-6 rest of the way, 0-1 in conference tourney: get us to 20-11
7-6 rest of the way, 1-1 in conference tourney: get us to 21-11
8-5 rest of the way, 0-1 in conference tourney: get us to 21-10
8-5 rest of the way, 1-1 in conference tourney: get us to 22-10
9-4 rest of the way, 1-1 in conference tourney: get us to 23-9
9-4 rest of the way, 2-1 in conference tourney: get us to 24-9
10-3 rest of the way, 1-1 in conference tourney: get us to 24-8
10-3 rest of the way, 2-1 in conference tourney: get us to 25-8
Last year, AAC sent 4 teams to the Big Dance, but might only get 3? Right now, tied for 2nd in conference, tied for 3rd best overall, 5 top 100 wins ("quality" wins), but at present would be on the bubble and quite likely miss but make the NIT.

You must have some time on your hands professor!

 

[UCFProf]

Always looking for interesting probability cases.
Despite the losses, would you believe UCF still has a ceiling of 23-10? (which would get us an automatic bid in the NCAA tournament).
But there are several ways to get to 20 wins: the most likely is 3-1 in conference, at least one win in the AAC tournament.
The second almost as likely way is 2-2 in conference, 2 wins in AAC tourney (especially since we'd not have a bye game, so first game would be against a weaker team)

 

[ucfversusbcs]

Always looking for interesting probability cases.
Despite the losses, would you believe UCF still has a ceiling of 23-10? (which would get us an automatic bid in the NCAA tournament).
But there are several ways to get to 20 wins: the most likely is 3-1 in conference, at least one win in the AAC tournament.
The second almost as likely way is 2-2 in conference, 2 wins in AAC tourney (especially since we'd not have a bye game, so first game would be against a weaker team)

Any discussions of how close to the bubble we are? I noticed we're 58 in BPI on the ESPN site but 113 on the RPI.

 

[UCFProf]

Any discussions of how close to the bubble we are? I noticed we're 58 in BPI on the ESPN site but 113 on the RPI.

There has been a lot of discussion about whether Houston is on the bubble. If Memphis or UCF does well the rest of the month and in the conference tournament, I suppose we'd get some of that attention. As the highest rated G5 conference and just a hair below the SEC (see Sagarin's conference rankings), only 2 invites for the first time in the AAC's brief history, this will certainly generating some guilt feelings, especially after Temple's outrageous mauling of top ranked teams in Nov. and Dec., only then to get soundly defeated by UCF and others in the AAC!

 

[CubanM11]

Winning the next TWO HAVE to happen. These are must win games to keep pace with a possible bubble birth. At worst NIT seed is possible. But again, must win these expected wins against Temple and ECU.

Then, of course beat at least USF to end the year and have strong tourney showing. You neve know. our RPI needs to bump up to at least 7--80 to have realistic chance despite being at 58 in ESPN BPI.

Obviously, winning out beating Cincy would put us in the discussion I think. NIT for sure.

 

[UCFProf]

Winning the next TWO HAVE to happen. These are must win games to keep pace with a possible bubble birth. At worst NIT seed is possible. But again, must win these expected wins against Temple and ECU.

Then, of course beat at least USF to end the year and have strong tourney showing. You neve know. our RPI needs to bump up to at least 7--80 to have realistic chance despite being at 58 in ESPN BPI.

Obviously, winning out beating Cincy would put us in the discussion I think. NIT for sure.

Don't know what's with the RPI. Sagarin has us almost 40 spots higher ranked. The other major ranking has us higher, too. It seems like every time we beat someone with a good record, they collapse and lose a bunch more games and hurt our ranking. The key is getting a bye so we maintain a chance at an automatic invite. The great thing about conference tournaments is that don't face everyone -- 3 games wins it all! Upsets mean you may avoid playing the top teams. And they'll be just as exhausted as you are because only Tulsa has any depth.