Lots of stats (Phil Steele stuff), numbers and predictions

[ucf_71127]

What should we expect for this year?
2013- Fiesta Bowl Champs
2014- AAC Champs
2015- 0-12 (predicted tied for 1st in the east)
2016- Predicted last in the east

The only reason why we are predicted last in the AAC and to finish with 4 wins, by many writers/fans, is because of last year.

Yes, the wheels fell off!
- Does anyone mention that we used 33 first time starters (most in the country)?!
- Had 56 “starts lost”! This was 21.2% of starters, MOST in the country!
- Offensive yards per POINT(ypp) of 19.29 was 6th worst in country (80% chance of better year)
- 2 net close losses (73% chance of better year)
- -20 in Turnover margin (2nd worst in country) (68% chance to improve)

This year we have:

- Stock Market Indicator (SMI) has UCF as the highest team with +10.5, this means we are due for a BIG “bounce back” this year (next highest is 6.5-crazy difference). Note- only 5 teams since 1990 have had a SMI of 7.5 or more. Interesting note, even if we won 5 games last year, our SMI would be at 5.5 with 78% of improving.
- A new offensive scheme that highlights our strengths and hides our weaknesses: QB throws shorter and sooner (less time o-line needs to block), and gets the ball to our playmakers (WR,TE,RB)
- Fast-paced offense; which will benefit us a lot more than anyone is mentioning. Think about it, if Frost is worried about the pace of our offense on our team and started us indoors with the AC running, how well do you think other teams will do at our pace in the Florida heat?! Just take a moment and think about Maryland [trying to]keep pace with our guys
- Speed that fits our recruiting (Killins, Hamilton, and Snelson to name a few)
- Excitement and passion!!
- We are healthy, which is a blessing! I think last year we had all of these guys out for the year by week 2 or before: lost Demetrius Anderson(preseason), William Stanback (11yds in 2 games-drugs), Joey Grant (opener), Jordan Akins (wk 2), Chris Williams(preseason).
- #10 ranked team in experience in NCAA

If you ignore last year (which was a TON of bad luck) then most would predict an 8-10 win season this year. Losses @Michigan, @Houston, maybe @USF, and maybe one more (Cinci or Maryland). I know we can’t “ignore” last year, but personally I view it as an outlier rather than a prediction for this year.

One thing that scares me is that in the past 17 years, 13 teams have gone winless and they have totaled 48 combined wins the next season (avg of 3 wins). Only 4 teams were able to get more than four wins (USCe 8, UCF 8, Houston 5, Wash 5).

How do you see us finishing? I have us at a gutsy 7-5

 

[Ucfmikes]

What should we expect for this year?
2013- Fiesta Bowl Champs
2014- AAC Champs
2015- 0-12 (predicted tied for 1st in the east)
2016- Predicted last in the east

The only reason why we are predicted last in the AAC and to finish with 4 wins, by many writers/fans, is because of last year.

Yes, the wheels fell off!
- Does anyone mention that we used 33 first time starters (most in the country)?!
- Had 56 “starts lost”! This was 21.2% of starters, MOST in the country!
- Offensive yards per play(ypp) of 19.29 was 6th worst in country (80% chance of better year)
- 2 net close losses (73% chance of better year)
- -20 in Turnover margin (2nd worst in country) (68% chance to improve)

This year we have:

- Stock Market Indicator (SMI) has UCF as the highest team with +10.5, this means we are due for a BIG “bounce back” this year (next highest is 6.5-crazy difference). Note- only 5 teams since 1990 have had a SMI of 7.5 or more. Interesting note, even if we won 5 games last year, our SMI would be at 5.5 with 78% of improving.
- A new offensive scheme that highlights our strengths and hides our weaknesses: QB throws shorter and sooner (less time o-line needs to block), and gets the ball to our playmakers (WR,TE,RB)
- Fast-paced offense; which will benefit us a lot more than anyone is mentioning. Think about it, if Frost is worried about the pace of our offense on our team and started us indoors with the AC running, how well do you think other teams will do at our pace in the Florida heat?! Just take a moment and think about Maryland [trying to]keep pace with our guys
- Speed that fits our recruiting (Killins, Hamilton, and Snelson to name a few)
- Excitement and passion!!
- We are healthy, which is a blessing! I think last year we had all of these guys out for the year by week 2 or before: lost Demetrius Anderson(preseason), William Stanback (11yds in 2 games-drugs), Joey Grant (opener), Jordan Akins (wk 2), Chris Williams(preseason).
- #10 ranked team in experience in NCAA

If you ignore last year (which was a TON of bad luck) then most would predict an 8-10 win season this year. Losses @Michigan, @Houston, maybe @USF, and maybe one more (Cinci or Maryland). I know we can’t “ignore” last year, but personally I view it as an outlier rather than a prediction for this year.

One thing that scares me is that in the past 17 years, 13 teams have gone winless and they have totaled 48 combined wins the next season (avg of 3 wins). Only 4 teams were able to get more than four wins (USCe 8, UCF 8, Houston 5, Wash 5).

How do you see us finishing? I have us at a gutsy 7-5

Thanks. There were so many things that happened last year, that I couldn't keep track. One could also add that Jacoby Glen should have certainly been a member of that team and our bad luck started then. The loss of Miles Pace, Holman's injury, etc.

However, you can't ignore the change in coaching staff, that often leads to a bad first year, more loss of players since 2015 for different reasons, and the fact that guys were not as good as we may have thought they were.

UCF is the most unpredictable team in
the country to predict in 2016. I think Vegas has our over/under at 4 wins too, but the starting QB hasn't even been named. How that plays out this year will be huge.

7 wins? Love your optimism, but once again, people who are predicting 6-7 wins aren't breaking down each opponent, but just throwing out a number.

Which 7 teams do you see us beating?

Remember, teams like Tulsa, FIU and Tulane are not going to rollover for this team. I would love to pencil in 3 wins there, but who knows.

 

[ucf_71127]

I see us losing @Michigan, @Houston, @Usf, Cinci, and one more.
I really believe we can and will beat Maryland. Home crowd, Florida weather (evening included), fast pace offense, and speed of our team will be too much for them.

 

[Ucfmikes]

I see us losing @Michigan, @Houston, @Usf, Cinci, and one more.
I really believe we can and will beat Maryland. Home crowd, Florida weather (evening included), fast pace offense, and speed of our team will be too much for them.

It's very, very unlikely, we are beating UConn away, and Temple at home. Would be nice to start 2-2 or 3-1, and that would be huge as well.

 

[UCFProf]

You forget that the AAC is not a very good conference and getting weaker by the year. The schedule is just not that tough. Lots of other teams have newish coaches and Memphis lost it's outstanding coach. UCF is in the much weaker of the two divisions. Cincy is in decline. Houston's season goes south if their small QB gets beat up. If UCF had a great team, we'd be bemoaning how a low SOS would keep us from playing for a national championship. Seven wins is indeed possible, but so is 3 or 4, of course. Can we will the close ones?

 

[Ucfmikes]

You forget that the AAC is not a very good conference and getting weaker by the year. The schedule is just not that tough. Lots of other teams have newish coaches and Memphis lost it's outstanding coach. UCF is in the much weaker of the two divisions. Cincy is in decline. Houston's season goes south if their small QB gets beat up. If UCF had a great team, we'd be bemoaning how a low SOS would keep us from playing for a national championship. Seven wins is indeed possible, but so is 3 or 4, of course. Can we will the close ones?

Actually, the AAC was the strongest it's ever been last year and we don't play Memphis this year. Not to be negative, but we aren't beating Houston or Cinci.

Name the 7 wins please.

 

[Stormthecourt?]

Actually, the AAC was the strongest it's ever been last year and we don't play Memphis this year. Not to be negative, but we aren't beating Houston or Cinci.

Name the 7 wins please.

Did our OL learn how to block over the offseason? Even if they did, we added only one QB this year who knows the system and he's 160 pounds. I'm with Mikes. 7 wins ain't happenin

 

[Ucfmikes]

It's nice to be a fan and be positive, but geez. Can we go 10-2? Sure, ANYTHING is possible. Very very unlikely. I certainly wouldn't bet on it.

Hope we do go 10-2 and i have to eat crow.

 

[UCFProf]

Actually, the AAC was the strongest it's ever been last year and we don't play Memphis this year. Not to be negative, but we aren't beating Houston or Cinci.

Name the 7 wins please.

How about everyone in our division, for starters, except perhaps USF.

 

[Ucfmikes]

How about everyone in our division, for starters, except perhaps USF.

They all crushed us last year and now we are going to turn around 20-40 point losses with a new system and lots of freshmen? That still doesn't give us 7 wins.

 

[pittstoner74]

What should we expect for this year?
2013- Fiesta Bowl Champs
2014- AAC Champs
2015- 0-12 (predicted tied for 1st in the east)
2016- Predicted last in the east

The only reason why we are predicted last in the AAC and to finish with 4 wins, by many writers/fans, is because of last year.

Yes, the wheels fell off!
- Does anyone mention that we used 33 first time starters (most in the country)?!
- Had 56 “starts lost”! This was 21.2% of starters, MOST in the country!
- Offensive yards per play(ypp) of 19.29 was 6th worst in country (80% chance of better year)
- 2 net close losses (73% chance of better year)
- -20 in Turnover margin (2nd worst in country) (68% chance to improve)

This year we have:

- Stock Market Indicator (SMI) has UCF as the highest team with +10.5, this means we are due for a BIG “bounce back” this year (next highest is 6.5-crazy difference). Note- only 5 teams since 1990 have had a SMI of 7.5 or more. Interesting note, even if we won 5 games last year, our SMI would be at 5.5 with 78% of improving.
- A new offensive scheme that highlights our strengths and hides our weaknesses: QB throws shorter and sooner (less time o-line needs to block), and gets the ball to our playmakers (WR,TE,RB)
- Fast-paced offense; which will benefit us a lot more than anyone is mentioning. Think about it, if Frost is worried about the pace of our offense on our team and started us indoors with the AC running, how well do you think other teams will do at our pace in the Florida heat?! Just take a moment and think about Maryland [trying to]keep pace with our guys
- Speed that fits our recruiting (Killins, Hamilton, and Snelson to name a few)
- Excitement and passion!!
- We are healthy, which is a blessing! I think last year we had all of these guys out for the year by week 2 or before: lost Demetrius Anderson(preseason), William Stanback (11yds in 2 games-drugs), Joey Grant (opener), Jordan Akins (wk 2), Chris Williams(preseason).
- #10 ranked team in experience in NCAA

If you ignore last year (which was a TON of bad luck) then most would predict an 8-10 win season this year. Losses @Michigan, @Houston, maybe @USF, and maybe one more (Cinci or Maryland). I know we can’t “ignore” last year, but personally I view it as an outlier rather than a prediction for this year.

One thing that scares me is that in the past 17 years, 13 teams have gone winless and they have totaled 48 combined wins the next season (avg of 3 wins). Only 4 teams were able to get more than four wins (USCe 8, UCF 8, Houston 5, Wash 5).

How do you see us finishing? I have us at a gutsy 7-5

19.29 yards per play sounds like a lot to me. That would mean a TD every 5 plays. Number has to be wrong. 19.29 yards per completion would even be high.

 

[ucf_71127]

19.29 yards per play sounds like a lot to me. That would mean a TD every 5 plays. Number has to be wrong. 19.29 yards per completion would even be high.

Good eye, yards per point. Thanks. It's on page 25 of Phil Steele if anyone has his magazine.

 

[ucf_71127]

Actually, the AAC was the strongest it's ever been last year and we don't play Memphis this year. Not to be negative, but we aren't beating Houston or Cinci.

Name the 7 wins please.

SC state, Maryland, fiu, ECU, Tulane, temple, Tulsa.

Did our OL learn how to block over the offseason? Even if they did, we added only one QB this year who knows the system and he's 160 pounds. I'm with Mikes. 7 wins ain't happenin

Our offense will be better without a doubt. The opposing team knew we would run up the middle or stand in the pocket. Our offense is getting rid of the ball faster and is attacking their offense in many more ways. Our oline will be fine and we will average way more points. Our QB play will be fine as we will be making shorter throws.
You also should know that Frost is an offensive guru and will make the offense for whoever is at QB.

They all crushed us last year and now we are going to turn around 20-40 point losses with a new system and lots of freshmen? That still doesn't give us 7 wins.

last year is over. So get over it! We could lose by 20-40 points again, if we lead the county in most new starters, most injuries to starters, and 2nd worst TO margin.
But if we don't get injured, and we go "even" on Turnover margin, that easily makes up the 20-40 points. We go from the fewest returning starters in the AAC to the most.

 

[HammerB08]

It's very, very unlikely, we are beating UConn away, and Temple at home.

Last year's miserable, awful, young, inexperienced, injury-riddled, coach-with-a-foot-out-the-door, football team had a lead on Temple going into the 4th quarter in Philadelphia. Temple lost some important seniors, including 3 to the NFL, over the offseason. I see no reason to write that game off this year in Orlando. It will be a competitive mathchup that could go either way.

 

[firm_bizzle]

Did our OL learn how to block over the offseason? Even if they did, we added only one QB this year who knows the system and he's 160 pounds. I'm with Mikes. 7 wins ain't happenin

I'll bite.

SCst
FIU
ECU
Tulane
UConn
Tulsa

Good shot:
Temple
Cincinnati
USF
Maryland

 

[UCFProf]

They all crushed us last year and now we are going to turn around 20-40 point losses with a new system and lots of freshmen? That still doesn't give us 7 wins.

The AAC is still a very good basketball conference, but frankly not that much better ranked than Conference USA -- check the Sagarin conference rankings for basketball and for football and you'll see what I mean. We crushed ourselves last year. These will not be "upset" specials on ESPN's crawl.

Recall how the defense totally frustrated one of the better teams in the nation (Stanford) for almost the entire first half, despite our 3-and-out offense. But by the time we got to conference games, low morale and injuries had take their toll. Remember that Navy entered our conference and beat these conference teams! We didn't have the depth or conditioning to take on the many teams that had gone to no-huddle offenses, while this year's squad has been only facing hurry up offense.

 

[pittstoner74]

SC state, Maryland, fiu, ECU, Tulane, temple, Tulsa.


Our offense will be better without a doubt. The opposing team knew we would run up the middle or stand in the pocket. Our offense is getting rid of the ball faster and is attacking their offense in many more ways. Our oline will be fine and we will average way more points. Our QB play will be fine as we will be making shorter throws.
You also should know that Frost is an offensive guru and will make the offense for whoever is at QB.

last year is over. So get over it! We could lose by 20-40 points again, if we lead the county in most new starters, most injuries to starters, and 2nd worst TO margin.
But if we don't get injured, and we go "even" on Turnover margin, that easily makes up the 20-40 points. We go from the fewest returning starters in the AAC to the most.

The short passes is where Holman struggles. He tries to laser every throw with very little touch. Unless he's been working on it.

 

[Ucfmikes]

SC state, Maryland, fiu, ECU, Tulane, temple, Tulsa.


Our offense will be better without a doubt. The opposing team knew we would run up the middle or stand in the pocket. Our offense is getting rid of the ball faster and is attacking their offense in many more ways. Our oline will be fine and we will average way more points. Our QB play will be fine as we will be making shorter throws.
You also should know that Frost is an offensive guru and will make the offense for whoever is at QB.

last year is over. So get over it! We could lose by 20-40 points again, if we lead the county in most new starters, most injuries to starters, and 2nd worst TO margin.
But if we don't get injured, and we go "even" on Turnover margin, that easily makes up the 20-40 points. We go from the fewest returning starters in the AAC to the most.

I'm surely over it! Thank you. Thing is you're too over it when making your predictions. If you believe that in one year, you can "easily" make up 20-40 points in a new system with many new players and freahmen, then I want some of that Koolaide. Also, injuries happen every year to every team and as far as turnovers, that was by far not our only issue last year.

Where are you reading that we are returning the most staters in the AAC?? Frost just said that no starters have been named.

 

[Ucfmikes]

We keep pencilling in FIU as a win every year, only to get burned. Can't count on an "opposite perfect storm"
this year and 7 wins. If I could bet an over under at 7 wins with many in this post, I would be tailgating this year in my Ferrari.

 

[ucf_71127]

The short passes is where Holman struggles. He tries to laser every throw with very little touch. Unless he's been working on it.

Yeah that was the big problem 2 years ago as he was nicknamed Nolan Ryan by GOL. Last year he was better but it didn't seem like improvement because we lost all our receivers from graduation and had injuries. So who was he throwing to? All freshman. He was also injured or playing with an injured hand (throwing hand?).

I'm surely over it! Thank you. Thing is you're too over it when making your predictions. If you believe that in one year, you can "easily" make up 20-40 points in a new system with many new players and freahmen, then I want some of that Koolaide. Also, injuries happen every year to every team and as far as turnovers, that was by far not our only issue last year.

Where are you reading that we are returning the most staters in the AAC?? Frost just said that no starters have been named.

How can you make up a 20 point turnaround in 1 year? Well, we went from losing 1 conference game in 2 years to losing 20-40 pts a game. So I don't really see it as the norm. If you think we should lose every game by 20-40 points this year, your crazy. We won't, we will be competing in 10 games this year.

Also, injuries happen to every team, but not the plague!! We had 56 starts lost, Alabama had 4!! Memphis had 4!! Over 20 teams had less than 10 starts lost. We had more than 5 times that number.

You are correct, TOs weren't our only issue. Injuries, and youth also contributed more than anything else you could mention.

Where am I reading about returning starters? In football magazines, Phil Steele. You make some good points that frost hasn't named any starters, but that doesn't mean that we don't return players that started. So yes, we are returning the most starters in the AAC (Phil Steele magazine).

 

[Knight_Light]

You forget that the AAC is not a very good conference and getting weaker by the year. The schedule is just not that tough. Lots of other teams have newish coaches and Memphis lost it's outstanding coach. UCF is in the much weaker of the two divisions. Cincy is in decline. Houston's season goes south if their small QB gets beat up. If UCF had a great team, we'd be bemoaning how a low SOS would keep us from playing for a national championship. Seven wins is indeed possible, but so is 3 or 4, of course. Can we will the close ones?

Obvious you don't follow AAC Football (or considering your past troll posts, you do realize it but just wanted to say something stupid to get a response)...because in Year 3 of the conf (last year), conf had more teams ranked than ever before.

 

[DJ Gonzo]

19.29 yards per play sounds like a lot to me. That would mean a TD every 5 plays. Number has to be wrong. 19.29 yards per completion would even be high.

It's Yards Per Point not Yards Per Play, just means we had to gain 115+ yards per TD

 

[UCFProf]

Obvious you don't follow AAC Football (or considering your past troll post, you do realize it but just wanted to say something stupid to get a response)...because in Year 3 of the conf (last year), conf had more teams ranked than ever before.

KL: Great, a bunch of coaches switched to no-huddle and cleaned on victories in conference. Navy, Houston, Memphis, and USF had unusually good years but one year for a handful of teams doesn't reverse the trend. Every year, top recruits are rationally choosing even bottom feeding P-5 teams in this increasingly rigged system. Yes, ours is the only non-P-5 conference with anyone in the pre-season rankings! And Navy is 30th. When we entered the conference Louisville and Cincy were outstanding. There was no Tulsa, ECU, Tulane. It is now 50% C-USA. There's no attendance, no way to hold only top coaches, and college football is a coaching-dominated game! And save the troll word for the hyperbole used by most other commenters.

 

[Knight_Light]

KL: Great, a bunch of coaches switched to no-huddle and cleaned on victories in conference. Navy, Houston, Memphis, and USF had unusually good years but one year for a handful of teams doesn't reverse the trend. Every year, top recruits are rationally choosing even bottom feeding P-5 teams in this increasingly rigged system. Yes, ours is the only non-P-5 conference with anyone in the pre-season rankings! And Navy is 30th. When we entered the conference Louisville and Cincy were outstanding. There was no Tulsa, ECU, Tulane. It is now 50% C-USA. There's no attendance, no way to hold only top coaches, and college football is a coaching-dominated game! And save the troll word for the hyperbole used by most other commenters.

Actually, multiple AAC teams are winning recruiting battles vs "bottom feeding P-5 teams", including those that are in mid-tier too.

Navy had a very good season last year with a top 4th year starting QB...but Navy has been a solid program for a LONG TIME...as only once since 2003 has Navy not won at least 8 games.

Just like most conferences, conf leaders will come and go, up and down..as those with experienced depth can and do win (i.e. AAC East Champ Temple last year)...something I expect UCF to do in 2-3 years.

Don't think anyone would confuse the AAC with the SEC...but the AAC is still the best conf UCF has ever belong too (football AND basketball) so no clue why you want to constantly bash it.

 

[UCFProf]

Actually, multiple AAC teams are winning recruiting battles vs "bottom feeding P-5 teams", including those that are in mid-tier too.

Navy had a very good season last year with a top 4th year starting QB...but Navy has been a solid program for a LONG TIME...as only once since 2003 has Navy not won at least 8 games.

Just like most conferences, conf leaders will come and go, up and down..as those with experienced depth can and do win (i.e. AAC East Champ Temple last year)...something I expect UCF to do in 2-3 years.

Don't think anyone would confuse the AAC with the SEC...but the AAC is still the best conf UCF has ever belong too (football AND basketball) so no clue why you want to constantly bash it.

Here's the facts. It's an excellent basketball conference, and always ranks very close to the P-5. Any of our top 6 teams can give a tough game to the top teams in the nation. That's the primary reason we couldn't successfully jump the chasm from C-USA in basketball. The talent difference is enormous.

Very different in football. The AAC continually ranks midway between the C-USA and the worst P-5. It just wasn't much of a jump to the new conference. The best football programs left the Big East (which never was decent in Football) around the time of the AAC formed. The most obvious case is UConn was relatively new to Div. 1 football, but a titan in basketball. The 2013 team was lucky to avoid injury and have perfect scheduling (bye weeks at just the right times, no game with Cincy); but it wasn't that hard running through the conference.

 

[ucf_71127]

The AAC has been the best G5 conference the past 3 years (in football). CUSA does not come close. We actually compare well to some P5 conferences. Last year I think we had 4 teams ranked one week and 3 for most of the last weeks of football. Houston, temple, Memphis, navy were all ranked in week 11. We have decent talk power but we always have some bottom feeders. We are pretty similar to ACC and Big12 (not balanced).

This year, I don't think we see as much success. Houston will be solid and can push for top 10, but that will be about it. This year our conference takes a small step back with teams ranked. Maybe 2-3 during the season.
Tulane could get ranked as they have the easiest early season schedule.

 

[pittstoner74]

The AAC has been the best G5 conference the past 3 years (in football). CUSA does not come close. We actually compare well to some P5 conferences. Last year I think we had 4 teams ranked one week and 3 for most of the last weeks of football. Houston, temple, Memphis, navy were all ranked in week 11. We have decent talk power but we always have some bottom feeders. We are pretty similar to ACC and Big12 (not balanced).

This year, I don't think we see as much success. Houston will be solid and can push for top 10, but that will be about it. This year our conference takes a small step back with teams ranked. Maybe 2-3 during the season.
Tulane could get ranked as they have the easiest early season schedule.

I think if we didn't have a really bad year some of those teams wouldn't have been ranked week 11. Not sure who we played by then.

 

[Poolside Knight]

What should we expect for this year?
2013- Fiesta Bowl Champs
2014- AAC Champs
2015- 0-12 (predicted tied for 1st in the east)
2016- Predicted last in the east

The only reason why we are predicted last in the AAC and to finish with 4 wins, by many writers/fans, is because of last year.

Yes, the wheels fell off!
- Does anyone mention that we used 33 first time starters (most in the country)?!
- Had 56 “starts lost”! This was 21.2% of starters, MOST in the country!
- Offensive yards per POINT(ypp) of 19.29 was 6th worst in country (80% chance of better year)
- 2 net close losses (73% chance of better year)
- -20 in Turnover margin (2nd worst in country) (68% chance to improve)

This year we have:

- Stock Market Indicator (SMI) has UCF as the highest team with +10.5, this means we are due for a BIG “bounce back” this year (next highest is 6.5-crazy difference). Note- only 5 teams since 1990 have had a SMI of 7.5 or more. Interesting note, even if we won 5 games last year, our SMI would be at 5.5 with 78% of improving.
- A new offensive scheme that highlights our strengths and hides our weaknesses: QB throws shorter and sooner (less time o-line needs to block), and gets the ball to our playmakers (WR,TE,RB)
- Fast-paced offense; which will benefit us a lot more than anyone is mentioning. Think about it, if Frost is worried about the pace of our offense on our team and started us indoors with the AC running, how well do you think other teams will do at our pace in the Florida heat?! Just take a moment and think about Maryland [trying to]keep pace with our guys
- Speed that fits our recruiting (Killins, Hamilton, and Snelson to name a few)
- Excitement and passion!!
- We are healthy, which is a blessing! I think last year we had all of these guys out for the year by week 2 or before: lost Demetrius Anderson(preseason), William Stanback (11yds in 2 games-drugs), Joey Grant (opener), Jordan Akins (wk 2), Chris Williams(preseason).
- #10 ranked team in experience in NCAA

If you ignore last year (which was a TON of bad luck) then most would predict an 8-10 win season this year. Losses @Michigan, @Houston, maybe @USF, and maybe one more (Cinci or Maryland). I know we can’t “ignore” last year, but personally I view it as an outlier rather than a prediction for this year.

One thing that scares me is that in the past 17 years, 13 teams have gone winless and they have totaled 48 combined wins the next season (avg of 3 wins). Only 4 teams were able to get more than four wins (USCe 8, UCF 8, Houston 5, Wash 5).

How do you see us finishing? I have us at a gutsy 7-5

swing and miss


It's very hard to tell what to expect. I heard the Oline is looking better but who knows then we also have the question of the QB and this system.

 

[Ucfmikes]

swing and miss


It's very hard to tell what to expect. I heard the Oline is looking better but who knows then we also have the question of the QB and this system.

The way Taj spoke today, I have no doubt we are going undefeated.

 

[UCFProf]

Check below, compare Sagarin conference rankings. Note how close AAC is to P-5 conferences in basketball (and how far below is C-USA in basketball). AAC in football is midway between typical P-5 and C-USA, not a big a jump. And this was what you claim is this outstanding year for the AAC conference in football. Not quite!
Conference comparison for football (end of 2015 -- Sagarin):
CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 SEC-WEST (A) = 85.47 86.36 ( 1) 7 85.98 ( 1)
2 PAC-12(NORTH) (A) = 79.54 78.56 ( 2) 6 79.28 ( 2)
3 BIG 12 (A) = 77.85 76.85 ( 4) 10 77.75 ( 3)
4 PAC-12(SOUTH) (A) = 77.55 76.88 ( 3) 6 77.15 ( 4)
5 BIG TEN-EAST (A) = 76.19 76.49 ( 5) 7 76.31 ( 5)
6 ACC-COASTAL (A) = 75.02 75.28 ( 7) 7 75.20 ( 7)
7 ACC-ATLANTIC (A) = 74.88 75.78 ( 6) 7 75.25 ( 6)
8 BIG TEN-WEST (A) = 74.56 74.01 ( 9) 7 74.22 ( 9)
9 SEC-EAST (A) = 74.07 74.74 ( 8) 7 74.54 ( 8)
10 I-A INDEPENDENTS (A) = 73.06 71.64 ( 10) 3 73.45 ( 10)
11 AAC WEST (A) = 67.31 66.95 ( 11) 6 67.21 ( 11)
12 AAC EAST (A) = 66.38 65.21 ( 12) 6 66.03 ( 12)
13 MWC-MOUNTAIN (A) = 64.73 64.36 ( 13) 6 64.54 ( 13)
14 MAC-WEST (A) = 63.04 62.14 ( 14) 6 62.89 ( 14)
15 MWC-WEST (A) = 58.76 59.36 ( 15) 6 58.94 ( 15)
16 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 58.74 58.15 ( 16) 10 58.76 ( 16)
17 CONFERENCE USA-EAST (A) = 57.06 57.70 ( 17) 7 57.30 ( 17)
18 MAC-EAST (A) = 56.62 57.29 ( 18) 7 56.93 ( 18)
19 SUN BELT (A) = 55.04 56.17 ( 19) 11 55.65 ( 19)
20 CONFERENCE USA-WEST (A) = 53.81 54.78 ( 20) 6 54.05 ( 20)
21 BIG SKY (AA)= 48.67 48.13 ( 21) 13 48.35 ( 21)
22 SOUTHERN (AA)= 46.99 45.50 ( 23) 9 46.80 ( 22)
23 COLONIAL (AA)= 45.90 46.11 ( 22) 12 46.03 ( 23)
24 OHIO VALLEY (AA)= 44.89 44.81 ( 24) 9 44.82 ( 24)
25 IVY LEAGUE (AA)= 44.65 44.60 ( 25) 8 44.62 ( 25)
26 BIG SOUTH (AA)= 41.86 42.66 ( 26) 7 42.27 ( 26)
27 SOUTHLAND (AA)= 40.38 40.23 ( 27) 11 40.48 ( 27)
28 PATRIOT (AA)= 40.15 39.57 ( 28) 7 39.85 ( 28)
29 NORTHEAST (AA)= 34.57 34.16 ( 29) 7 34.28 ( 29)
30 MID-EASTERN (AA)= 32.51 32.20 ( 30) 11 32.42 ( 30)
31 SWAC-WEST (AA)= 29.48 28.30 ( 31) 5 29.10 ( 31)
32 PIONEER (AA)= 25.12 23.74 ( 33) 11 24.70 ( 33)
33 SWAC-EAST (AA)= 24.76 25.47 ( 32) 5 24.87 ( 32)
34 ***UNRATED*** (**)= -91.00 -91.00 ( 34) 1 -91.00 ( 34)

Conference comparison for basketball (end of 2015-16 season -- Sagarin):
1 BIG 12 = 1.10144 ( 10) 84.99318( 6.04064)
2 ATLANTIC COAST = 1.09311 ( 15) 83.89679( 6.67903)
3 PAC-12 = 1.07582 ( 12) 81.59478( 4.98141)
4 BIG EAST = 1.07460 ( 10) 81.43256( 7.84050)
5 BIG TEN = 1.07147 ( 14) 81.01149( 8.36908)
6 SOUTHEASTERN = 1.06690 ( 14) 80.39333( 5.69685)
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC = 1.04822 ( 11) 77.84470( 7.52275)
8 ATLANTIC 10 = 1.02987 ( 14) 75.29565( 6.28312)
9 MOUNTAIN WEST = 1.01827 ( 11) 73.66199( 4.93899)
10 COLONIAL = 1.01334 ( 10) 72.96116( 5.02901)
11 WEST COAST = 1.01268 ( 10) 72.86941( 8.66641)
12 MISSOURI VALLEY = 1.01226 ( 10) 72.80835( 8.29372)
13 MID-AMERICAN(west) = 1.00404 ( 6) 71.63093( 1.56548)
14 BIG WEST = 1.00244 ( 9) 71.40159( 6.02305)
15 IVY LEAGUE = 0.99936 ( 8) 70.95807( 7.12297)
16 MID-AMERICAN(east) = 0.99817 ( 6) 70.78604( 4.53415)
17 SUMMIT LEAGUE = 0.99682 ( 9) 70.59035( 3.71076)
18 SUN BELT = 0.99261 ( 11) 69.98041( 5.79186)
19 HORIZON = 0.99081 ( 10) 69.71812( 8.11585)
20 OHIO VALLEY(east) = 0.98936 ( 6) 69.50737( 4.38425)
21 METRO ATLANTIC = 0.97690 ( 11) 67.67904( 5.84410)
22 CONFERENCE USA = 0.97631 ( 14) 67.59153( 6.12518)
23 SOUTHERN = 0.97577 ( 10) 67.51180( 5.17761)
24 BIG SOUTH = 0.96424 ( 11) 65.79702( 5.12269)
25 WESTERN ATHLETIC = 0.96155 ( 8) 65.39218( 8.60519)
26 ATLANTIC SUN = 0.96037 ( 8) 65.21757( 4.18228)
27 BIG SKY = 0.95638 ( 12) 64.61484( 5.73415)
28 PATRIOT = 0.95473 ( 10) 64.36663( 4.23211)
29 OHIO VALLEY(west) = 0.95374 ( 6) 64.21790( 5.03028)
30 AMERICA EAST = 0.95191 ( 9) 63.93925( 7.97658)
31 SOUTHLAND = 0.94392 ( 13) 62.72357( 7.04295)
32 NORTHEAST = 0.92583 ( 10) 59.93074( 4.93287)
33 SOUTHWESTERN = 0.92310 ( 10) 59.50399( 5.67903)
34 MID-EASTERN = 0.91739 ( 13) 58.60881( 4.34410)

 

[goodknightfl]

I have no idea, so will shoot right down the middle. 6-6

 

[SCKnight]

I think our offense is going to struggle early. It is going to take at least 3 games before they get their legs under them. I also am very pessimistic about our defense. I am hoping that last year was just complete and utter bad fortune accompanied by really bad coaching. I think there is a good chance at starting the season 1-3 or 0-4.

Until I see the actual product I will have to be pessimistic and say we win 5 games, tops.

 

[goodknightfl]

SC, I think we win big week one. Lose week 2, If we figure it out in those 2 weeks, Maryland could be interesting. think we have 65% chance week 4. 2-2 OCC is likely.

 

[SiberianKnightmare]

Imagine if only there was a team that went from winless one season to 8-4 divisional champs the next season. Wow, imagine if that ever happened.

 

[ucf_71127]

Check below, compare Sagarin conference rankings. Note how close AAC is to P-5 conferences in basketball (and how far below is C-USA in basketball). AAC in football is midway between typical P-5 and C-USA, not a big a jump. And this was what you claim is this outstanding year for the AAC conference in football. Not quite!
Conference comparison for football (end of 2015 -- Sagarin):
CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 SEC-WEST (A) = 85.47
2 PAC-12(NORTH) (A) = 79.54
3 BIG 12 (A) = 77.85
4 PAC-12(SOUTH) (A) = 77
11 AAC WEST (A) = 67.31
12 AAC EAST (A) = 66.38
17 CONFERENCE USA-EAST (A) = 57.06
20 CONFERENCE USA-WEST (A) = 53.81

Conference comparison for basketball (end of 2015-16 season -- Sagarin):
1 BIG 12 = 1.10144 ( 10) 84.99318( 6.04064)
2 ATLANTIC COAST = 1.09311 ( 15) 83.89679( 6.67903)
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC = 1.04822 ( 11) 77.84470( 7.52275)
22 CONFERENCE USA = 0.97631 ( 14) 67.59153( 6.12518)

"AAC in football is midway between typical P-5 and CUSA, not a big a jump."

That is not true! The difference between the AAC average (about 67) and CUSA (55) is 12 points. That's the same difference as AAC and Big12 and Pac12 North (the stronger division), and the SEC as a whole!!