The NBA draft has been mostly based on potential for a long, long time now. After about the top 5-10 picks, it’s a complete roll of the dice and not much is expected for the next few years. Even those top 5-10 picks are mostly gambles because they don’t pan out into dominant players picks 1-10 should be. There’s only like 30 NBA teams, with small rosters and you can find players anywhere on the planet so teams have become increasingly willing to draft on future potential.
You see it now more than ever. Guys are kind of a bust their first 3-4 years but then when they get on their second contract they are finally developing or blossoming.
Bol Bol is one of many, many examples. Denver drafted him. He didn’t do squat, playing in only 53 games over 3 seasons and only averaging a couple of points and like a rebound a game. The Magic sign him and now he’s played in 41 games and is averaging 12 pts, 7 rbds, 1.6 blocks. A solid contributor. He’s still only 23. The age he would have been had he played 4-5 years of college ball.