New JUCO CB

[shacket]

Recruiting does contribute to our success but recruiting rankings do not. In the AAC alone our rankings leading up to 2017 were 6th (#70), 4th (#73), 3rd (#64), and 2nd (#57). those are the guys who got us here. Guess who was higher in rankings 3-4 years? USF.

You can plug in pretty much most any upper G5 program rating ranking and it would not change anything. They are getting the same type rated recruits. Every now and then someone lands a 4 star or two, including us. But generally we all feed on 3 and 2 star rated recruits. The difference in ratings is negligible.

The rankings do matter, nowhere near as much as a win or loss would matter, but if we get "outrecruited" by other G5 teams based on the metrics that can contribute to us having a lower preseason ranking than other G5 teams. The rankings are sticky, they just are. If we get preseason ranked below Boise it could ultimately cost us a NY6 birth depending on how the records end up. It is bullshit and makes no sense but it's the world we live in. We can choose to be aloof "expert" fans that don't buy in to recruiting rankings if we want to, but everyone else is playing the game, including voters. Voters matter.

We don't get fair evaluation based on our on the field results, you know it's true because you are a UCF fan. My prediction for 2020 is we go 12-1 with AAC championship win and we beat Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl in overtime, and none of this shit will matter. But this is the offseason, and so I am pissed at some shitty algorithm at 247Sports trying to underrank our JUCO db because damnit, we need to go 1-0 all the damn time and nobody is playing football right now.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

The rankings do matter, nowhere near as much as a win or loss would matter, but if we get "outrecruited" by other G5 teams based on the metrics that can contribute to us having a lower preseason ranking than other G5 teams. The rankings are sticky, they just are. If we get preseason ranked below Boise it could ultimately cost us a NY6 birth depending on how the records end up. It is bullshit and makes no sense but it's the world we live in. We can choose to be aloof "expert" fans that don't buy in to recruiting rankings if we want to, but everyone else is playing the game, including voters. Voters matter.

We don't get fair evaluation based on our on the field results, you know it's true because you are a UCF fan. My prediction for 2020 is we go 12-1 with AAC championship win and we beat Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl in overtime, and none of this shit will matter. But this is the offseason, and so I am pissed at some shitty algorithm at 247Sports trying to underrank our JUCO db because damnit, we need to go 1-0 all the damn time and nobody is playing football right now.

The recruiting rankings are as much about validating the school name as they are about truly giving a fair ranking. In fairness, it is impossible for these recruiting companies to sufficiently evaluate the tens of thousands of high school players looking for a scholly. They may have a decent handle on the very top players. There was a fake recruit with an Alabama offer that was rated a 3 star and he didn’t even exist. Where do you think he would have ranked without a Bama offer? It is literally impossible for Bama to sign a class worse than UCF because the weight of their offers influences the rating of their recruits. Why do you think UCF recruiting ranking is so consistent year to year? It’s because as the cream of the G5 crop, unrated recruits that commit to UCF get a bump. Just not a P5 bump and certainly not a Bama bump.

 

[shacket]

The recruiting rankings are as much about validating the school name as they are about truly giving a fair ranking. In fairness, it is impossible for these recruiting companies to sufficiently evaluate the tens of thousands of high school players looking for a scholly. They may have a decent handle on the very top players. There was a fake recruit with an Alabama offer that was rated a 3 star and he didn’t even exist. Where do you think he would have ranked without a Bama offer? It is literally impossible for Bama to sign a class worse than UCF because the weight of their offers influences the rating of their recruits. Why do you think UCF recruiting ranking is so consistent year to year? It’s because as the cream of the G5 crop, unrated recruits that commit to UCF get a bump. Just not a P5 bump and certainly not a Bama bump.

Umm.... yeah. That's messed up right?

 

[SCKnight]

The rankings do matter, nowhere near as much as a win or loss would matter, but if we get "outrecruited" by other G5 teams based on the metrics that can contribute to us having a lower preseason ranking than other G5 teams. The rankings are sticky, they just are. If we get preseason ranked below Boise it could ultimately cost us a NY6 birth depending on how the records end up. It is bullshit and makes no sense but it's the world we live in. We can choose to be aloof "expert" fans that don't buy in to recruiting rankings if we want to, but everyone else is playing the game, including voters. Voters matter.

We don't get fair evaluation based on our on the field results, you know it's true because you are a UCF fan. My prediction for 2020 is we go 12-1 with AAC championship win and we beat Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl in overtime, and none of this shit will matter. But this is the offseason, and so I am pissed at some shitty algorithm at 247Sports trying to underrank our JUCO db because damnit, we need to go 1-0 all the damn time and nobody is playing football right now.

Recruiting rankings do not affect our preseason rankings. The previous year, our G5 status and the builtin in bias do that. Look, past #25, nobody cares about recruiting rankings except the fans of teams arguing with each other. National media could care less. That is because everyone knows beyond #25 it is a crap shoot. Boise gets ranked ahead of us not because of their ranking, but because of their history. Now we are building the same thing and we are reaping at least some of the benefits. That will be evident if we end up preseason ranked next year.

Of course we don't get a fair evaluation, but to be clear, in our recruiting sweet spot there really is no universal metric that will gauge the value of our recruits as to other similar recruits. It is somewhat cliche but the coaches know what they are looking at. That means more than any ranking in this arena. Sure it is easy to spot a 5 star guy because of athletic ability, size, speed, so those guys stand out. When I see some G5 program constantly ranked in the top 25 I will start to wonder.

 

[Knight Strength]

What do Mike Hughes*, Tre Nixon and this year's Jaylen Richardson all have in common?

All were 4 star transfers to UCF that were NOT counted in UCF's recruiting rankings (transfers are NOT included in recruiting rankings) but had, have and will soon have HUGE impact to UCF's on-the-field success.

Key transfers now matter even more, especially since more high profile recruits are transferring out at a record pace.

Ironically, even a transfer does not guarantee success at their next stop (i.e. see 4 star Brandon Wimbush), which is the same for virtually any HS recruit (success not guaranteed, regardless of their rating).

NOTE: While Hughes got kicked out of UNC (where he started as a True Freshmen) to go to a JUCO, since he committed/enrolled at UCF in mid-August, UCF didn't get recruiting class credit.

Everybody else is getting 4* transfers too. It's not like our class ratings are 4th in the AAC because our transfers aren't getting counted. They would still be 4th if transfers were counted.

 

[Knight_Light]

Everybody else is getting 4* transfers too. It's not like our class ratings are 4th in the AAC because our transfers aren't getting counted. They would still be 4th if transfers were counted.

Point was...look what Hughes and Nixon have done ON the field (i.e. impact) and what Richardson will do this year.

Bottom line...impact players can be found in a lot of places...and sometimes, you don't get "recruiting credit" (i.e. from transfers) but performance ON the field will always be paramount...and UCF going 24-2 in AAC games in the last 3 years (including 2 championship wins) is what matters most and always will.

 

[shacket]

Recruiting rankings do not affect our preseason rankings. The previous year, our G5 status and the builtin in bias do that. Look, past #25, nobody cares about recruiting rankings except the fans of teams arguing with each other. National media could care less. That is because everyone knows beyond #25 it is a crap shoot. Boise gets ranked ahead of us not because of their ranking, but because of their history. Now we are building the same thing and we are reaping at least some of the benefits. That will be evident if we end up preseason ranked next year.

Of course we don't get a fair evaluation, but to be clear, in our recruiting sweet spot there really is no universal metric that will gauge the value of our recruits as to other similar recruits. It is somewhat cliche but the coaches know what they are looking at. That means more than any ranking in this arena. Sure it is easy to spot a 5 star guy because of athletic ability, size, speed, so those guys stand out. When I see some G5 program constantly ranked in the top 25 I will start to wonder.

I think you get my point so I don't really want to keep arguing, I do want to point out a couple things though. Your thing about the coaches knowing what they are looking at assumes that the coaches are actually getting the players they want and recruiting the talent they intend to and are 100% happy with the outcomes, this may or may not be true and coaches NEVER admit to a bad class or recruiting outcome. My complaint has been and continues to be about the rankings and not the actual recruits. Our staff has great identifiers and evaluators of talent, they know what they are doing much more than me. I don't worry about not having the talent, its the perception that is proliferated by the stupid recruiting services that I dont like.

We can agree to disagree about the preseason ranking thing but in the preseason lists that ESPN and CBS, etc. Put out I definitely do see discussion of recruiting, 100%, and these writers definitely rely on the recruiting services because they have even less time to evaluate the players so they use the services as a proxy. I admit it is more relevant inside of the top 25 teams and 4 and 5 stars are more easy to delineate than high vs low 3 stars, but you will still see writers talk about recruiting classes when discussing preseason rankings, even AAC teams. Overall I continue to acknowledge this is not a huge deal and there is some hair splitting going on, but if you want to see evidence of what I am talking about with fans and the media, go on twitter and look at the fans of other schools trolling us based on our recruiting ranking. If nothing else it annoys me.

 

[SCKnight]

I think you get my point so I don't really want to keep arguing, I do want to point out a couple things though. Your thing about the coaches knowing what they are looking at assumes that the coaches are actually getting the players they want and recruiting the talent they intend to and are 100% happy with the outcomes, this may or may not be true and coaches NEVER admit to a bad class or recruiting outcome. My complaint has been and continues to be about the rankings and not the actual recruits. Our staff has great identifiers and evaluators of talent, they know what they are doing much more than me. I don't worry about not having the talent, its the perception that is proliferated by the stupid recruiting services that I dont like.

We can agree to disagree about the preseason ranking thing but in the preseason lists that ESPN and CBS, etc. Put out I definitely do see discussion of recruiting, 100%, and these writers definitely rely on the recruiting services because they have even less time to evaluate the players so they use the services as a proxy. I admit it is more relevant inside of the top 25 teams and 4 and 5 stars are more easy to delineate than high vs low 3 stars, but you will still see writers talk about recruiting classes when discussing preseason rankings, even AAC teams. Overall I continue to acknowledge this is not a huge deal and there is some hair splitting going on, but if you want to see evidence of what I am talking about with fans and the media, go on twitter and look at the fans of other schools trolling us based on our recruiting ranking. If nothing else it annoys me.

This is not an argument, it is a discussion. One that seems to be pretty civil for these boards. and it is the off season so what the heck, why not.

I understand your point. There are assumptions made in all of these arguments. I am on board with the ranking systems evaluation. They are skewed. Which is all the more reason we should not take them seriously. The talking heads and the trolling fans are what they are. There is nothing we can do about it. Those people will use whatever fodder they have to beat us down. If it is not ranking it is scheduling, or some other issue. Everything we do is an uphill battle against that bias. If we judge our coaches on these rankings I think it is a bad practice. They should be judged on performance. Period.

I would guess they miss on a lot of players. As a coach I bet that you would have to get good a evaluating true interest in recruits so you don't go tilting at windmills. we all know what happens a day are so before signing day when a "100% committed" recruit gets a call from a P5 ("don't judge me bro"). I wonder how many of those we keep that we don't know about. To me I think this is the measure of our program. How many of these guys can you keep.

 

[KnightofCamelot]

So this JUCO kid Emmanuel from NY commits last night, had offers from Auburn and Tennessee and 247Sports rating 85.00. I go back and check this morning and his rating has dropped to 80.83. LMAO is this a conspiracy? So blatant.

He did not have commitable offers from any P5 team. The people here dont understand how the system works.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

He did not have commitable offers from any P5 team. The people here dont understand how the system works.

Wow not only are you connected with a programs recruiting, but you actually have insight into multiple programs recruiting who each assigned him a primary recruiter and updated his offer list with offers from their school. Impressive credentials. You should probably go back to your home board and leave “the people here” to enjoy their false recruits.

 

[shacket]

He did not have commitable offers from any P5 team. The people here dont understand how the system works.

Yeah I read that Tennessee filled their open spots, I think the guy still had a visit scheduled at Auburn though. Regardless, if the ratings are supposed to evaluate the talent of the athlete, how does 1 or 2 coaches finding another kid or filling another need change that kid's talent level? He earned offers from 2 SEC schools, I assume at one point they intended those offers to be commitable. I assume a DB with 2 SEC offers is better than an 80.03. Sorry me and the other dumbasses on this board aren't as plugged in to how the system works as you. Have you considered either not being a condescending douche or perhaps going to another board where people are smarter and can relate to your perfect understanding of amateur sports? Nobody thinks you are a UCF fan. Nobody.

 

[shacket]

This is not an argument, it is a discussion. One that seems to be pretty civil for these boards. and it is the off season so what the heck, why not.

I understand your point. There are assumptions made in all of these arguments. I am on board with the ranking systems evaluation. They are skewed. Which is all the more reason we should not take them seriously. The talking heads and the trolling fans are what they are. There is nothing we can do about it. Those people will use whatever fodder they have to beat us down. If it is not ranking it is scheduling, or some other issue. Everything we do is an uphill battle against that bias. If we judge our coaches on these rankings I think it is a bad practice. They should be judged on performance. Period.

I would guess they miss on a lot of players. As a coach I bet that you would have to get good a evaluating true interest in recruits so you don't go tilting at windmills. we all know what happens a day are so before signing day when a "100% committed" recruit gets a call from a P5 ("don't judge me bro"). I wonder how many of those we keep that we don't know about. To me I think this is the measure of our program. How many of these guys can you keep.

Yeah, I am with you on all of that. I didn't mean to say you were being overly argumentative just that I didn't have much more of a point to make. Generally speaking I think this thread reflects our boredom with the offseason. I find myself reading recruiting shit probably mostly to get that hit of UCF football I will be Jonesing for until UNC.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

Yeah I read that Tennessee filled their open spots, I think the guy still had a visit scheduled at Auburn though. Regardless, if the ratings are supposed to evaluate the talent of the athlete, how does 1 or 2 coaches finding another kid or filling another need change that kid's talent level? He earned offers from 2 SEC schools, I assume at one point they intended those offers to be commitable. I assume a DB with 2 SEC offers is better than an 80.03. Sorry me and the other dumbasses on this board aren't as plugged in to how the system works as you. Have you considered either not being a condescending douche or perhaps going to another board where people are smarter and can relate to your perfect understanding of amateur sports? Nobody thinks you are a UCF fan. Nobody.

You will be happy to know he is no longer a .80 but now a .82. Lots of movement in the past couple days. Must have had a rec game last night and balled out.

 

[Knight_Light]

..., but if you want to see evidence of what I am talking about with fans and the media, go on twitter and look at the fans of other schools trolling us based on our recruiting ranking. If nothing else it annoys me.

You have to be 12 yrs old if you spend 1 second worrying what fans say on twitter. Really?

 

[shacket]

You have to be 12 yrs old if you spend 1 second worrying what fans say on twitter. Really?

Not worrying about it man, just saying how it is out there in the non-UCF wild. This is the one sport where random people's opinions do end up mattering. Unfortunately we can't get in a playoff or pulled up to a better conference without changing the perception of people who will spend a relatively small amount of time actually paying attention to the program (voters and committee members and athletic directors). Lol dude you are a guy insulting somebody by calling them 12 on a rivals forum.... is that actually more mature than reading what people say on twitter about your team and wanting to elevate that perception? I'm not talking about USF and Miami fans I am talking about sports media people.

 

[shacket]

You will be happy to know he is no longer a .80 but now a .82. Lots of movement in the past couple days. Must have had a rec game last night and balled out.

2 possibilities here...
1. Recruiting service guys heard our weeping and gnashing of teeth.
2. The whole system is total bullshit
Good looking out tho @hemightbejeremy

 

[SimpleJack53]

Recruiting rankings do not affect our preseason rankings. The previous year, our G5 status and the builtin in bias do that. Look, past #25, nobody cares about recruiting rankings except the fans of teams arguing with each other. National media could care less. That is because everyone knows beyond #25 it is a crap shoot. Boise gets ranked ahead of us not because of their ranking, but because of their history. Now we are building the same thing and we are reaping at least some of the benefits. That will be evident if we end up preseason ranked next year.

Of course we don't get a fair evaluation, but to be clear, in our recruiting sweet spot there really is no universal metric that will gauge the value of our recruits as to other similar recruits. It is somewhat cliche but the coaches know what they are looking at. That means more than any ranking in this arena. Sure it is easy to spot a 5 star guy because of athletic ability, size, speed, so those guys stand out. When I see some G5 program constantly ranked in the top 25 I will start to wonder.

This is 100% not true. On air the announcer said UCF needs to shut up. Before the game we do our research and we look at the recruiting rankings of the lines. This helps us determine if a team and can the ball on the other team. UCF has no chance against a team like X.

This is how people view college football.