Nm
- Thread starter KNIGHTTIME^
- Start date
Do you have a random number generator where you get this data from?
Here's the CDC data for deaths for the first 48 weeks of this year compared to the first 48 weeks of the last two years. Here's an article that breaks it down a bit.
2018: 2,606,928
2019: 2,614,950
2020: 2,877,601
Plus - death reporting lags. The '18 and '19 numbers are complete but the '20 numbers aren't. So the current year data recent weeks is way under-reported. Just comparing the years, the '20 data is over 50k short for deaths reported in the final two weeks of that data set.
The CDC's 95% confidence band has excess deaths since Feb 1st at a range of 290k to 400k.
But whatever keep believing the meme you saw on FB.
I don't get why people are obsessing over this. Yes we are going to have more deaths this year than in previous years, there is a new deadly virus. Obviously it won't be a deal where you just take last years number and add the covid number to it, but it will higher than last year.
Its not wrong, just incomplete. We won't know until February or March what the real number is.
Yeah, what's the big deal? It's only a pandemic that mostly kills old people, and besides, it will magically disappear someday!*
Did you just selectively edit my post so you could be an asshole? Because you just selectively edited my post and acted like an asshole.
Here's the updated web version of the CDC mortality data. Add up all the weeks in 2020 and you're already at 2,951,007.
If all you do is assume we match last year for the lagged and remaining weeks, we'll be over 3.1 million for 2020, which is an ~11% increase over 2019.
This doesn't make a whole lot of sense. That would be about 300,000 additional deaths which tracks really closely with covid deaths. With over half of the people that have died with it being past average life expectancy, it stands to reason that a good portion of them would have died this year anyway. If we do get to that number it will be interesting to see what other causes of death are up this year.
I think "a good portion" is a lot smaller than you think. Take a look at an actuarial table that gives life expectancy and death probability by age.
At 80 years old for example - there's a 4.2% chance you'll die that year and - on average - you'll live another 8 years. At 90 years old, there's a 13% chance you die that year.
So if every single COVID death was a 90 year old, 87% of those deaths would still be excess.
How fast are the Chud PHDs going to dip on this topic once the official numbers become available?
It'll be back to "masks can't stop a virus" for the next 10 months.
It'll be back to "masks can't stop a virus" for the next 10 months.
Maybe you can reconcile this:
Those under age 50 who get infected with the coronavirus lose less than one day of discounted quality-adjusted life expectancy; seniors age 70 or older lose nearly 90 days.
What Is Your Risk Of Dying From Covid-19?
Covid-19 has increased the risk of death for the average American by about 10 percent, but this increase in risk is much higher for seniors than children.
www.forbes.com
It seems like that stat doesn't match with the rest in the article.
Most common age to die in the US is 87. Most who die from Covid are younger than that.
3k deaths on 9/11/01 = NEVER FORGET.
3K deaths every single day = SNIFFLES YOU BETA
3K deaths every single day = SNIFFLES YOU BETA
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