[Ratings] The Big XII and UCF ... by the Sagarin's

[UCFBS]

UCF is 2-4 in the Big XII this year. Yet all 4 of the losses are against the top 5 teams in the conference according to the Sagarin Ratings (actually top 6, as UCF is #5!), using Jeff Sagarin's default and primary 'Central Mean.' Although there are others, they come in close in most cases.


BTW, Big XII even barely edges out the Big 10 as the #2 conference -- let me say that again, the #2 conference in the country -- although Big XII, Big 10 and ACC are all a bit below the #1 SEC.


Although the 'jump down' back to the AAC is over double the 'jump up' to the SEC. Look at those rankings, let alone Strength of Schedule (SoS), against UCF's old conference, the AAC (aka American). The AAC (American) is nothing in comparison ... NOTHING! Even the Big 10 SoS is not as good the Big XII, far different!


SoS of Florida teams:

1. Florida #6 - one of the toughest, including OoC)
2. FSU #12 - much tougher OoC than the ACC median)
3. UCF #28 - it was #18 before Arizona, sub-30 is Big XII median
4. Miami #54 -- yes, 54th!!! -- par for the ACC, median 50+!!!
5. USF #79 - in UCF's old conference, harder than AAC median (a few OoC games)
6. FAU #105 - also UCF's old conference, close to AAC median, 100+!!!
7. FIU #139 - close to C-USA median

And ... the Big XII has the 'highest ranked bottom feeder' in #78 Arizona, while even the SEC has a lower #84 Miss St. Now 2nd lowest is #53 Kentucky, while the Big XII has #63 Houston.


But the ACC has #115 Stanford and #91 Wake Forest ...


While the Big 10 has #109 Purdue and #79 Northwestern.


Now let's look at top 50 ... both the Big XII and SEC have all but 3, the Big 10 over half, but the ACC?!

1. Big XII & SEC: 13 of 16 (over 80%)
2. Big 10: 10 of 18 (just over half)
3. ACC: 7 of 17 (just over 40%)

The ACC has been 'easy street' for a long time, even before some of the Pac-12 was added. In fact, SMU -- coming from the AAC -- doing so well says a lot! I mean, not a single Big XII team has a SoS as easy as SMU. Cinci and UCF have done better than Houston, but the Big XII is really a lot tougher than the ACC.

The Big XII is a really tough conference! Far more than the ACC, let alone the AAC. People really need to 'reset their expectations' in the Big XII.

 

[Central Floridave]

Interesting stats. Thanks for the info.

 

[90Knight]

Whether it's the AAC or the Big XII, we expect Gus to win. The standard hasn't changed because we're now in the Big XIi. This season has been a huge disappointment. Gus will get all of the credit for winning and for losing. He's whiffed on choosing QBs and it's one of the reasons we had a horrible 5 game losing streak

 

[LoboCane]

Sagarin is a relevant as Colley.

 

[UCFBS]

Whether it's the AAC or the Big XII, we expect Gus to win. The standard hasn't changed because we're now in the Big XIi. This season has been a huge disappointment. Gus will get all of the credit for winning and for losing. He's whiffed on choosing QBs and it's one of the reasons we had a horrible 5 game losing streak

Yes, but ... do you fire a coach over that?
Do you fire an AD for merely hiring a coach like that?
Do you blame everything on the AD and HC for all that?

Do you burn it all down and start over?

 

[90Knight]

Yes, but ... do you fire a coach over that?
Do you fire an AD for merely hiring a coach like that?
Do you blame everything on the AD and HC for all that?

Do you burn it all down and start over?

I think you let the season play out. He made some big changes this past game. If we’re not improving and showing promise in our play then he should get canned. Unfortunately, I don’t think we can afford the buyout…. so it’s a moot point and a big reason I’m more patient with Gus. We simply don’t have the money to fire him so I don’t go berserk over something we can’t afford to do.. I don’t think he survives another 5 game losing streak next year… even if we take an unwanted huge hit with a buyout.

No reason we shouldn’t win at least 7 games every season. 5 game losing streaks are unacceptable. That’s basically 2 gimme wins vs IAA cupcakes and 5 wins vs DI schools.

When do you think a Gus should get fired?

 

[80'sKnight]

Wow what a let down from what I had hoped was a great win. Guess stats don't lie, the 2 great wins of the season were over terrible Big XII teams.

On the other hand, yes you do fire a coach, why? Last weeks proves it. It can't even be a question anymore. What happened last week? We fired a DC and 'fired' Gus from calling plays. Positive proof that firing someone boosts a team. Only way you keep him is if he continues to stay away from calling plays and we have good coordinators, because Gus still has value as a recruiter and maybe a mentor.

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

Sagarin is a relevant as Colley.

And as UM. Bye bye.

 

[UCFBS]

Sagarin is a relevant as Colley.

And yet both were not only used in the BCS, but far more accurate in predicting outcomes than the human pollsters.

All computers showcase how pathetic the ACC SoS is. Only FSU, Louisville and Stanford have any serious SoS that would be good for the Big XII and SEC.

Georgia Tech is #4 SoS in the ACC, and it's lower than the Big XII median, but almost half (twice as strong) as 'The U.'

So I wasn't shocked when Georgia Tech beat Miami.

 

[90Knight]

And yet both were not only used in the BCS, but far more accurate in predicting outcomes than the human pollsters.

All computers showcase how pathetic the ACC SoS is. Only FSU, Louisville and Stanford have any serious SoS that would be good for the Big XII and SEC.

Georgia Tech is #4 SoS in the ACC, and it's lower than the Big XII median, but almost half (twice as strong) as 'The U.'

So I wasn't shocked when Georgia Tech beat Miami.

Again...So what needs to happen for you to believe Gus should be fired?

 

[UCFBS]

Again...So what needs to happen for you to believe Gus should be fired?

When his buy out is more reasonable and there's a good option without one.

Frost was an awesome hire at the right time.

 

[UCFBS]

Still #2 conference in all variations of Sagarin's ratings.

Big XII is even better now in SoS, and much tighter (9-56, 25 median) even against the SEC (1-57, 18 median). UCF is smack dab in the middle, #23 SoS. Florida is #1.

Lots of creampuffs in the ACC and Big 10.

The ACC is pathetic, Miami #61, SMU #59, Clemson #62. FSU and Stanford are outliers at #19 and #15, as the median is almost 60!

The Big 10 almost as bad with Ohio State #58, Oregon #52, Indiana #68, only Penn State at #37 gets close to Big XII (25) and SEC (18) medians. Big 10 SoS median is in the 40s.

The AAC is the best of the G5 and nearly all 100+.