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Republican National Convention

Good Knight Sweetheart

Todd's Tiki Bar
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Jun 1, 2001
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Just wondering what would happen if those delegates choosing the candidate chose not to support the person who received the delegates? Example, what if enough of trump's delegates voted for another candidate? Can they even do that? Would that totally screw up the process?

(yeah, I could possibly Google this....don't wanna)

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The delegates have to support the candidate they are pledged to. Unless no one gets the majority then the delegates vote for whomever they want.
 
The delegates have to support the candidate they are pledged to. Unless no one gets the majority then the delegates vote for whomever they want.
Not true, only States with caucuses guarantee the delegates. A delegate could go rogue. Others would change to compensate and the rogue delegate would lose the honor. However, if the GOP decided a candidate didn't represent their values, they could get the delegates to do whatever they want. It would disenfranchise the voting base, probably kill turn out. All and all just a bad idea, but totally legal.
 
They have to vote for the candidate they are assigned to on the first ballot. If no one has a majority then they are free to vote as they see fit. Most are long time party regulars (establishment) if Trump doesn't get a majority it will be a wild ride at the convention. You could see Paul Ryan or Jeb Bush or Romney emerge as the nominee.
 
I think the most likely scenario is the poison pill 3rd party candidate. Establishment supports someone to run to help down ballot candidates. GOP hangs on to Congress and Dems keep WH.
 
They had a discussion on this today. By Rep party rules they can vote for anyone. Most states have them locked in for the first vote. Some states lock them in for more than one vote.
 
the irony of the 2012 Republican National Committee Autopsy report after Obama got reelected. The 2 current GOP frontrunners are the most extreme when it comes to Immigration

That Rubio lost his home state in such a landslide and Bush had to pull the plug weeks earlier speaks volumes about the state of the Republican Party.

Three years ago this week, the Republican National Committee released its autopsy report on the 2012 election. The so-called Growth and Opportunity Project warned how the party was increasingly out of step with America and its changing population.

"The nation's demographic changes add to the urgency of recognizing how precarious our position has become," wrote the authors, including top Jeb Bush adviser Sally Bradshaw, advising that Republicans needed to embrace immigration reform and cool their anti-immigrant rhetoric. "If Hispanics think we do not want them here, they will close their ears to our policies."


What more could the party ask for in 2016 than a conservative Republican who is fluent in Spanish and part of the Hispanic culture, a Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush.

Bush had that last name baggage, but also a record as an ambitious reformer. Rubio, meanwhile, had youth and charisma.

Two years ago, Time magazine placed Rubio on its cover. Headline? "The Republican Savior."

Turned out Republican voters had different ideas than the Republican establishment.

There is no more important and potentially toxic issue in today's GOP primary electorate than immigration. Bush never had to deal with it as governor, and Rubio largely escaped it running for Senate by promising to oppose a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants in America.

The rest of the Republican presidential candidates showed little interest in talking about immigration, but Trump turned it — and Rubio's broken promise — into a central part of the primary debate.

"What happened to Rubio? "It's one issue. It's the Gang of Eight issue," Tom Gaitens, a veteran conservative activist in Hillsborough County, said Saturday at a Rubio campaign event in Tampa. "What's ironic is that never in American history has one issue that didn't pass become the issue that's holding the best candidate back."
 
It is a lot more complex than what is written above, but most of what is written above is true. I am very limited in what I can write here. I will point out that even if you are bound to vote for a candidate on the first ballot, you must be present to vote. If you are not credentialed until the start of the second ballot, then you have no obligation to vote for the candidate that won your vote. Thus, who is a delegate to the convention becomes a fight at the state level to avoid this problem. It's going to make for great TV and eventually books. Who knows what is going to be promised to formally obscure dentists, mailmen, housewives, etc.
 
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I wish people would shut up about Rubio and the Gang of Eight. The polling on this issue is clear in state after state. Immigration never ranked above 4th in order of importance to voters. And amongst those that rate Rubio disfavorably, his stance on immigration was almost never mentioned.

He was a well funded crappy candidate with no experience. Voters rejected him for him, not one issue. The establishment trotted him out there as their guy and it was a poor move. Deal with it. Don't look for a policy position that differs from the three candidates who have run a competent campaign so far and say that's the reason to explain away your own stupidity.
 
Jeb Bush was the well funded crappy candidate, not Rubio.

I know the exit polling but Trump's campaign was built on the first wave on controversy about the 'huge wall' and the comments about Mexicans then Cruz used the first 8-10 debates to consistently hammer the Gang of 8 'amnesty/he tried to compromise durp durp' line in every single debate directed at Rubio. Every single conservative blog, some at Fox News, and talk radio would hammer Rubio daily about it for months. Even Jeb Bush used it against him with his Right Rise PAC that spent over 20 million attacking him instead of Trump or Cruz. Despite not winning any early state Rubio was attacked as the frontrunner from the very beginning taking it from every direction while Cruz was cupping Trump's balls during the entire Fall of 2015.
 
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I don't know where that Marco has been. That was the candidate I expected. to see.

It was one of Rubio's better speeches...but even in that speech, (which he finally admits that he gets voters frustration of the GOP Establishment), he still contradicts himself in the end spouting FOR the Establishment in the end and "staying the course."

I wish he would have just ended his speech in the beginning...when he admitted:

"America's in the middle of a real political storm, a real tsunami. And we should have seen this coming. Look, people are angry."
-------------

Rubio is young...he will be back...as the next 4 years he will probably be a regular guest on CNN/FOX shows to keep his face/name relevant...and just like so many before him...from Nixon to Reagan to Bush I to Hillary to Romney and others...odds are he will run again sometime in the future.
 
Jeb Bush was the well funded crappy candidate, not Rubio.

I know the exit polling but Trump's campaign was built on the first wave on controversy about the 'huge wall' and the comments about Mexicans then Cruz used the first 8-10 debates to consistently hammer the Gang of 8 'amnesty/he tried to compromise durp durp' line in every single debate directed at Rubio. Every single conservative blog, some at Fox News, and talk radio would hammer Rubio daily about it for months. Even Jeb Bush used it against him with his Right Rise PAC that spent over 20 million attacking him instead of Trump or Cruz. Despite not winning any early state Rubio was attacked as the frontrunner from the very beginning taking it from every direction while Cruz was cupping Trump's balls during the entire Fall of 2015.
Dont confuse what voters care about with what the political fundraising complex and their media consultants know will spur fundraising donations amongst a very small subset of the electorate. A classic case is gay marriage. That topic was invented back in the 1990s by Richard Viguerie and Lee Atwater because it had an off the scale return on fundraising. They set down with thousands of people in focus groups and asked them what was important to them as far as the issues and then asked them to rate those issues on which one they would be most likely to give money. Less than 1% of the focus groups listed gay marriage as an important issue, but amongst that 1% it was the issue that group was most likely to give for by a wide margin. When those results came in, they immediately contacted every political figure they knew and told them to start pushing a gay marriage ban. That's how DOMA happened in the early 1990s. People needed to raise money to run campaigns and the people that run them wanted to get rich. Meanwhile, we got a political issue for the next twenty years that nobody really cared about and nobody really noticed or cared once the Supreme Court resolved it.

Its the same with immigration. The average voter on either side doesnt give a crap, but it brings out the wallets in a defined portion of the electorate on each side, so it gets talked about.

I know people on here are going to disagree with that assessment and that is fine. You are entitled to your opinion. (However, with a little self awareness you might recognize that your opinion is actually your thoughts being manipulated by others). I have seen the raw data in a variety of formats. I speak regularly with people who do this stuff for a living. They all assure me that immigration is a loser issue for both sides, doesnt drive turnout, and is simply a marketing/fundraising tool for the race baiters on either side trying to drive voter turnout to their small base and small donations from the public. Those are just the facts.
 
Dont confuse what voters care about with what the political fundraising complex and their media consultants know will spur fundraising donations amongst a very small subset of the electorate. A classic case is gay marriage. That topic was invented back in the 1990s by Richard Viguerie and Lee Atwater because it had an off the scale return on fundraising. They set down with thousands of people in focus groups and asked them what was important to them as far as the issues and then asked them to rate those issues on which one they would be most likely to give money. Less than 1% of the focus groups listed gay marriage as an important issue, but amongst that 1% it was the issue that group was most likely to give for by a wide margin. When those results came in, they immediately contacted every political figure they knew and told them to start pushing a gay marriage ban. That's how DOMA happened in the early 1990s. People needed to raise money to run campaigns and the people that run them wanted to get rich. Meanwhile, we got a political issue for the next twenty years that nobody really cared about and nobody really noticed or cared once the Supreme Court resolved it.

Its the same with immigration. The average voter on either side doesnt give a crap, but it brings out the wallets in a defined portion of the electorate on each side, so it gets talked about.

I know people on here are going to disagree with that assessment and that is fine. You are entitled to your opinion. (However, with a little self awareness you might recognize that your opinion is actually your thoughts being manipulated by others). I have seen the raw data in a variety of formats. I speak regularly with people who do this stuff for a living. They all assure me that immigration is a loser issue for both sides, doesnt drive turnout, and is simply a marketing/fundraising tool for the race baiters on either side trying to drive voter turnout to their small base and small donations from the public. Those are just the facts.

I'm getting very depressed.
 
Dont confuse what voters care about with what the political fundraising complex and their media consultants know will spur fundraising donations amongst a very small subset of the electorate. A classic case is gay marriage. That topic was invented back in the 1990s by Richard Viguerie and Lee Atwater because it had an off the scale return on fundraising. They set down with thousands of people in focus groups and asked them what was important to them as far as the issues and then asked them to rate those issues on which one they would be most likely to give money. Less than 1% of the focus groups listed gay marriage as an important issue, but amongst that 1% it was the issue that group was most likely to give for by a wide margin. When those results came in, they immediately contacted every political figure they knew and told them to start pushing a gay marriage ban. That's how DOMA happened in the early 1990s. People needed to raise money to run campaigns and the people that run them wanted to get rich. Meanwhile, we got a political issue for the next twenty years that nobody really cared about and nobody really noticed or cared once the Supreme Court resolved it.

Its the same with immigration. The average voter on either side doesnt give a crap, but it brings out the wallets in a defined portion of the electorate on each side, so it gets talked about.

I know people on here are going to disagree with that assessment and that is fine. You are entitled to your opinion. (However, with a little self awareness you might recognize that your opinion is actually your thoughts being manipulated by others). I have seen the raw data in a variety of formats. I speak regularly with people who do this stuff for a living. They all assure me that immigration is a loser issue for both sides, doesnt drive turnout, and is simply a marketing/fundraising tool for the race baiters on either side trying to drive voter turnout to their small base and small donations from the public. Those are just the facts.

Makes sense to me. Most social issues have a very loud minority and that's it. Most people don't care if it doesn't effect their day to day lives.
 
They all assure me that immigration is a loser issue for both sides, doesnt drive turnout, and is simply a marketing/fundraising tool for the race baiters on either side trying to drive voter turnout to their small base and small donations from the public. Those are just the facts.
I agree with that. Hillary is using it as a wedge issue just like Obama did in 2012 to get the Hispanic vote & when she's elected she'll break her no deportation promise.
 
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Cruz could still make things interesting. Not a fan of his but his campaign team and ground game is the best out there.
 
Strongly disagree that his "ground game" is the best out there. He had evangelicals in certain states and that's it. He did well in those states. He has struggled in states where he has needed to attract supporters to travel to different states to work as volunteers. He hasn't been able to. Even if he could get people there, he hasn't had pros on the ground long enough in those states to take advantage of the army of free labor. He had maybe 2 dozen people at the supporters rally in NH. Thats a big deal that is open to the press and their showing was poor. Rubio had maybe 12. Bush none. Kasich had over 500. Probably 100 for Trump and Christie. Heck, Vermin Supreme had more people on the ground in NH than Cruz. Cruz rented a bunch of space in a bunch of different cities in Florida, but did relatively little with it and only opened them a few weeks before the primary and after voting had begun. That's window dressing, not ground game.

Kasich is pretty much the same way. The ground game has been second to none in states where money was available for both a long term paid presence and services for short time volunteers.

Obama had literally thousands of groupies and hundreds of experienced people working to organize them and get them from state to state. Hillary hired the same people and now you see Hillary girls out on the street in every state. The Sanders people are pretty organized but using archaic methods. On the other end of the spectrum, the Bush people had mobs of volunteers (mostly people who owed him for their jobs ten years ago), the best technology, and were terribly organized. They tanked. To be fair, there candidate was flawed. They would have had better luck knocking on doors and saying they were there on behalf of Bin Laden.
 
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All of the Republican candidates were exactly the same. There were so many of them because the RNC (in their brilliant businessman wisdom) wanted a "diverse portfolio" of candidates (in terms of their demographic) in the primary to gauge how to spend on various demographics in the general election. Policy-wise, it wouldn't matter who won the primary, it would be the same policy.

Donald Trump who is a fool but also a good business man sniffed out this strategy and went all in on one demographic, the angry poor man. It has paid off for him hugely.

I really hope it all crashes down at the convention and another candidate gets selected. I want to watch this while ****ing circus burn.
 
I love dumbass liberals mocking the GOP primary while they have a socialist and a felon in the running for their nomination.
 
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I love dumbass liberals mocking the GOP primary while they have a socialist and a felon in the running for their nomination.
Don't forget that their system is 100% rigged by the super delegate BS. Funny the people that scream about the rights of people to vote are basically telling their voters that their votes are not nearly as important as a select few.
 
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Don't forget that their system is 100% rigged by the super delegate BS. Funny the people that scream about the rights of people to vote are basically telling their voters that their votes are not nearly as important as a select few.

Plenty of liberals would be livid if the party selected Hillary based only on super delegates. but right now hillary has the numbers, so there won't be a subversion of the people on the left
 
Plenty of liberals would be livid if the party selected Hillary based only on super delegates. but right now hillary has the numbers, so there won't be a subversion of the people on the left
Go read democraticunderground.com. The Democratic Party will be fractured as well.
 
I love dumbass liberals mocking the GOP primary while they have a socialist and a felon in the running for their nomination.

You also have to love the liberals at the Washington Post who put out an op-ed on how to help the GOP Establishment to stop Trump.

Why are these liberals and others trying to help the Washington Establishment in trying to defeat Trump in the primary?

Because Trump is the Wild Card...they have no idea what you would/could do in a general election...whereas the Libs know that they would easily defeat Cruz or Kasich, etc...

I'm glad libs and the GOP Establishment are scared....as they both should be for the CRAP that they have put on this country for oh so long.
 
Actually, there isn't a reputable poll out there that shows Trump winning the general against hrc or bern. Polls that have accurately measured his turnout in the primary in key states show him losing by double digits. On the other hand, Kasich beats Hillary, and is the only candidate in or out of the race, who has consistently beaten Hillary in head to head matchups in the states that matter.
 
I don't have a dog in this fight (I'm just pulling for the libertarian party to fill some of the vacuum during the chaos), but I'm not sure how accurate polls for the general election would be right now. Trump is a TMZ candidate in a new social media age. He's going to change the voting pool in unpredictable ways.
 
Not really. He is pulling large numbers of disaffected white male voters who used to vote democratic but have sat out the last few elections. Only about 10 percent of his strength is new registrations. The democrats haven't won the white male vote since LBJ. Trump has a ceiling, they just aren't talking about it because a: its early and they want interest in the primary to continue and b: it reveals a side to American politics that nobody wants to tackle head on in prime time mainstream media. That about 20 percent of the American electorate votes based on their identity: white male anti intellectual.
 
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Actually, there isn't a reputable poll out there that shows Trump winning the general against hrc or bern.

And polls 4 months ago showed that Trump would never get more than 10%-12% of the vote and how we would probably never win even 1 state.

There is nothing "traditional" about this primary which is why those in power (Establishment GOP and Dems) are so afraid about someone like Trump come Nov.

I
 
Its not that simple. You have to look at who is doing the polling, who is paying for it and the methodology. People sympathetic to Rubio floated a series of polls in Michigan in the weeks before the election showing Kasich in single digits trying to bring down turnout. The Governor got 25% of the votes, 25% of the delegates and more than 80% of the late deciders. Heck, most polls out there in the main stream media showed Trump leading in Ohio and it wasn't even close, if you looked at polls that tracked likely turnout.

Some of the media outlets are strapped for cash. Some of the Universities are just doing it for free marketing. You can't pay a call center in Mumbai a $1000.00 to call 500 people randomly in Cincinnati and say it is a statewide poll of Ohio. You need good methodology and good people who know what they are doing on the ground when they ask the questions to get good data. Just because it says Gallup or Quinnipiac or Washington Post doesnt necessarily mean they know what they are talking about in a particular state, race, or issue. We live in the age of click bait. Beware.

If you want to see interesting polls, look at the voter preference polls being done quietly amongst known delegates to the convention. Kasich is the first or second choice amongst over 80% of them. Well over half of the delegates contacted indicated that if they know for sure that the convention will be contested, Kasich is their choice, even if they are pledged to someone else.

And before you reply that Trump voters are not being captured accurately, you have to look at the exiting polling data before you comment. There are plenty of Trump people that are crossing over from the Democrats. But in the states where Kasich has spent money and the primary is closed, the new registrations have broken for Kasich 60-40. Those people are going to vote for Kasich, they aren't voting for Kasich because they don't like Trump. They had to go change their registration. The troubling thing about assuming that Trump has Democrat appeal is when you look at the numbers coming out of open primary states in a vacuum, you can't assume all of those folks are going to vote for Trump. Many are Hillary folks looking to stack the deck for their gal by crossing over or know that Hillary will win, so they are voting for the most destructive and unRepublican candidate on the other side.
 
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