Let's face it, to a large extent, recruiting is a crap shoot. Some of the best players turn out to be two star guys and four star disappointments are everywhere. That being said, the larger pool of potential players, the greater the likely success. For UCF, since 2012, the pool has been shrinking.
Consider the following; For the ten year period beginning in 2002, UCF averaged 24.2 signed players per recruiting class. Since 2012, the Knights have averaged 18. Of the 54 players signed since 2012, only 41 remain. Interestingly, it appears the 3-4 year survival rate of players (about 75%) remains the same regardless of the size of the recruiting class. Had the size of the recruiting classes remained constant, there would be 13 more scholarshipped players contributing to this years effort. That's enormous. If you consider the lack of depth of the team, much of it is attributable to reduced scholarships. As easy as it is to complain about coaching or subpar players, the reality is small recruiting classes have damaged the program. Unfortunately, over the short term, there is little reason to believe it will get much better. Ultimately, the solution is a return to normal signing classes plus 2-3 years to mature.
Consider the following; For the ten year period beginning in 2002, UCF averaged 24.2 signed players per recruiting class. Since 2012, the Knights have averaged 18. Of the 54 players signed since 2012, only 41 remain. Interestingly, it appears the 3-4 year survival rate of players (about 75%) remains the same regardless of the size of the recruiting class. Had the size of the recruiting classes remained constant, there would be 13 more scholarshipped players contributing to this years effort. That's enormous. If you consider the lack of depth of the team, much of it is attributable to reduced scholarships. As easy as it is to complain about coaching or subpar players, the reality is small recruiting classes have damaged the program. Unfortunately, over the short term, there is little reason to believe it will get much better. Ultimately, the solution is a return to normal signing classes plus 2-3 years to mature.
