Originally posted by ucf_71127:
Interesting post! I am very excited about Tacko and think there is SO much potential with him. Potential WILL get him in the NBA, I just hope he stays for 2 years at UCF.
Anyways, there is a lot that goes into predicting a stat line for any freshman; talent, need at position, graduating players, and available minutes are just a few I thought of real quick. It's going to be very interesting for Tacko next year. Here are my thoughts.
Talent and Need- At UCF, Tacko's biggest talent (height) is a HUGE need for us. So this benefits him a lot. Our 2 tallest guys on the team (Karrell 6-11 and McBride 6-10) only total a combined 24 minutes. That leaves 16 minutes available at the 5 position. Currently these minutes go towards Blair (6-9) who plays the 4 and 5 and receives 23 minutes. You may not think 6'9 is small for a 5 position, but compared to a 7'6 player it is! That's like the average guy here (6'0?) guarding a 6'9 guy, 9 inch difference, PLUS additional arm reach!!
Graduating Players- this will be tough because we only have 1 senior on the team that gets a considerable amount of time, Kasey Wilson. He plays an average of 22.4 minutes per game. The downfall for Tacko is that Kasey plays a different position than Tacko, so he can't take over "those" specific minutes or position.
Available minutes- This will also be difficult for Tacko to get minutes as well because we have so many returning players and starters. Add our current roster plus Matt Williams (starter who is injured), AJ Davis (6'9 Tenn. transfer), and freshman players (McSpadden, Brown, Efianayi). Efianayi isn't a freshman but a Juco I believe. This mean A LOT of players will be searching/fighting for playing time. (Next year we will certainly see a boost in talent and performance!!)
Here is a Minutes Breakdown:
Adonys 35
BJ 33
Goodwin 32
Walker 23
Blair 23
Wilson 22 graduates
Shaheed 15
McBride 14
Karrell 10
207 total minutes (this is over the avg of 200 team minutes because of OT games and injuries)
I know I would like to see McBride play 25 mpg next year. I also hope Blair has a big coming out party for his senior year and if he performs he could get around 28 mpg. That only leaves about 7 minutes for all the incoming players.
So how many minutes does Tacko get?
Well, I personally hope he gets around 12 minutes a game. I think if he averages 4pts, 5rebs, 2 blks he will be impacting the game greatly as a freshman. Yes, I said "greatly" because currently we have nobody averaging more than 4.8 rebounds OR 1.1 blocks a game. If he leads the team in both catergories (which I believe he can) then he will also see an increase in minutes as the season goes on. Perhaps similar to McBride this year? I also hope he comes back for a 2nd year. Maybe it seems crazy at first, but it is possible that he is a "one and done".
Good post.
One thing to remember about mins played this year is that some players are getting a lot of extra mins out of necessity (i.e. 8-9 scholarship players available per game) so the influx of up to 13 scholarship players next year, those mins will definitely fluxuate.
Also, with 5 incoming players for next season (includes redshirt AJ Davis), UCF is still one over the max of 13 scholarships so if all do enroll (Davis is already enrolled, Tacko has a 4.0 GPA...not sure about the incoming Freshmen grades...and if Efianayi stays on track for his AA...someone currently on the team not named Wilson Senior, will have to get off scholarship for a year and/or transfer).
McBride's mins have been up and down this year...sometimes against smaller/quicker post players he sits...other times against bigger 5's he plays. Also, he likes to get involved early in the game...as that seems to keep him motivated...but when he works hard to get open in the post...doesn't get the ball...his motivation/confidence slips and that usually sends him to the bench.
It was good to see him play 23 mins against a tall/quick UCONN team...as it was a great learning experience for him...but if we had a suitable substitute, he probably would have played 16 mins or so in his current condition.
This off-season will determine what McBride will do/get next year...as he has to lose at least another 25 lbs...as he is way too slow on D...but his offensive game down low is needed (plus his excellent FT shooting too).
Big loser in mins next year (if they are on the team), could be be Goodwin & Walker...as McSpadden at 6'4" as a point guard will help UCF on both ends of the floor...especially defensively, as UCF's 3 guard and sometimes 4 guard line-up is getting destroyed inside and on the boards.
AJ Davis at the 4 (more of an offensive threat than Blair) might end up as the starter next year...as UCF needs more scoring punch down low to improve their inside/outside game (Blair has done a nice job filling in at the 4 and 5...and he could play that role again next year).
Does Donnie put BJ at the point and McSpadden at the 2 or vice versa?
Can Chad Brown (6'7" wing) make immediate impact at the 3 with Efianayi? (Shaheed Davis is seeing how much more difficult Div I ball is compared to JUCO and HS).
Can Adonys become an all-around offensive player vs just sitting on perimeter shooting 3's? If he can improve his ball handling...he can drive the lane more...get fouled more...and get to the FT line (#1 or #2 best FT shooter on the team but he doesn't get many trips to the FT line because he has been mostly taken 3's).
Same for Matt Williams...can he become an all-around offensive threat vs just shooting 3's? (Or, does he see that mins might be few and far between at the 2-3 with Adonys, Chad Brown, Efianayi, plus all the other guards and decide to look elsewhere for his final 2 years? Especially since UCF needs one extra scholarship for next year).
NOTE: While both (Adonys) and Williams) need to improve their driving to the lane...more 3 opportunities will probably be open next year because of D's collapsing more around Tacko and hopefully an improved McBride.
No clue about Karell, who will be a Senior next year (if he stays on roster and/or on scholarship)...as he has provided some good defensive mins this year for Blair and McBride when they get into foul trouble or tired...but his lack of offensive game sometimes makes it 4 against 5 on the offensive side of the ball.
Having not enough mins to go around is a good thing...something UCF hasn't had the luxury off being so shorthanded by scholarship restrictions and/or using a scholarship on a transfer (Davis this year) and then dealing with early season ending injuries (Williams this year).
Having a much deeper bench will Coach Jones deal with unexpected losses to the roster.
Meanwhile...its great that BJ and Adonys are getting a ton of mins this year as that experience is so valuable...plus any mins McBride gets, thats just another step closer to him getting into better conditioning.
What I hope Jones can do is something Pitino has been able to do at Louisville...and that is having players give up (or taken away) their scholarship for their Senior year...but remain on the team...so that he can use said scholarship to sign another HS recruit.
Maybe a current UCF player could qualify for Bright Futures and/or have a family that could afford in-state tuition for one year. Don't think UCF will be able to do what UL seems to do, i.e. bag of cash just shows up at doorstep for kid who "volunteered" to go off scholarship for one year).
In regards to Tacko...just him clogging the lane will stop some players from even attempting to drive the lane...so that offensive change by opponents (having to shoot less percentage outside shots) will help UCF on the defensive end, even though that stat won't show up in a box score under Tacko.
This post was edited on 1/25 7:59 AM by Knight_Light
