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The Big Switch

Crazyhole

Todd's Tiki Bar
Jun 4, 2004
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we are told that in the 1960s, southern racists switched party affiliation from democrat to republican. If this theory is true, can someone explain the 1976 election where Carter swept the south, including Texas?
 
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we are told that in the 1960s, southern racists switched party affiliation from democrat to republican. If this theory is true, can someone explain the 1976 election where Carter swept the south, including Texas?
The 1976 election was the last one where Christian evangelicals voted for a Democrat. They turned on Carter in his reelection bid in 1980 and have been staunchly Republican ever since.
 
The 1976 election was the last one where Christian evangelicals voted for a Democrat. They turned on Carter in his reelection bid in 1980 and have been staunchly Republican ever since.
So was the big switch more based on religion? I could see that as opposed to racism.
 
It was that along with fears about race, immigration, and gay rights.
So how does this happen? Does the party change first or does the electorate? Take a state like Minnesota. There's a pretty good chance that they flip this year. Is that the product of the party changing first or the electorate? Is there a single issue that can do that?
 
we are told that in the 1960s, southern racists switched party affiliation from democrat to republican. If this theory is true, can someone explain the 1976 election where Carter swept the south, including Texas?
There is a good documentary about Carter on CNN which explains this. Carter and Clinton were transitional democrats who were able to get both blacks and southern racists to vote for them by delivering different messages to different audiences. Carter almost blew it when he was quoted as defending "ethnic purity" of neighborhoods. Ultimately the civil rights community rallied around him because they didn't want to forge new deals with another candidate. MLK Sr. blessed Carter and he was able to merge the coalitions.
 
So was the big switch more based on religion? I could see that as opposed to racism.
There has always been a southern conservative racist party. Sometimes they vote Democrat, sometimes they vote Republican but they always vote against the interests of blacks. That's a consistent force in American politics. They are always looking for allies (Evangelicals, upper midwest blue collar workers) in order to further their agenda.
 
it's a pretty widely debunked myth. Democrats realize a lot of their party ideals have to deal with being mad at things that happened a long time ago, so they had to invent a conspiracy theory to avoid the inconvenient truth that they're the party of the KKK and fighting for slaves.

Lets not forget that they had a KKK member as Senate Majority leader under Reagan, and he continued to serve as a Senator into Obama's tenure.

 
it's a pretty widely debunked myth. Democrats realize a lot of their party ideals have to deal with being mad at things that happened a long time ago, so they had to invent a conspiracy theory to avoid the inconvenient truth that they're the party of the KKK and fighting for slaves.

Lets not forget that they had a KKK member as Senate Majority leader under Reagan, and he continued to serve as a Senator into Obama's tenure.

Cute video but you're high. Black people left the Republican Party because they were becoming racist.

"You start out in 1954 by saying, "Ni**er, ni**er, ni**er." By 1968 you can't say "******" — that hurts you. Backfires. So you say stuff like forced busing, states' rights and all that stuff. You're getting so abstract now [that] you're talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you're talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is [that] blacks get hurt worse than whites. And subconsciously maybe that is part of it. I'm not saying that. But I'm saying that if it is getting that abstract, and that coded, that we are doing away with the racial problem one way or the other. You follow me — because obviously sitting around saying, "We want to cut this," is much more abstract than even the busing thing, and a hell of a lot more abstract than "Ni**er, ni**er."

-Lee Atwater
 
Cute video but you're high. Black people left the Republican Party because they were becoming racist.

"You start out in 1954 by saying, "Ni**er, ni**er, ni**er." By 1968 you can't say "******" — that hurts you. Backfires. So you say stuff like forced busing, states' rights and all that stuff. You're getting so abstract now [that] you're talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you're talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is [that] blacks get hurt worse than whites. And subconsciously maybe that is part of it. I'm not saying that. But I'm saying that if it is getting that abstract, and that coded, that we are doing away with the racial problem one way or the other. You follow me — because obviously sitting around saying, "We want to cut this," is much more abstract than even the busing thing, and a hell of a lot more abstract than "Ni**er, ni**er."

-Lee Atwater

Link below to the actual audio of this quote. I think this really shows us how naive most of us our to the actual politics of our country. Here's a major Republican strategist/operative explaining how racist messaging evolved over decades to become more palatable. It was an optimization problem, continue to win over the racist group with coded messaging while appearing reasonable enough to the other group at the same time.

 
The Democratic party never left its Racist ideology. The swung further left and reclaimed their 1920"s progressive roots. Doubled down on abortion which hits blacks hard, as it was designed to do. They also ramped up the welfare state which makes Poor indentured servants to the Gov't that feeds them. Abortion did its job by keeping blacks a smaller minority than they would have been, while using welfare to keep those on it from having a road up the economic ladder. Democrats have become the party of Rich liberal elitist.
 
The Democratic party never left its Racist ideology. The swung further left and reclaimed their 1920"s progressive roots. Doubled down on abortion which hits blacks hard, as it was designed to do. They also ramped up the welfare state which makes Poor indentured servants to the Gov't that feeds them. Abortion did its job by keeping blacks a smaller minority than they would have been, while using welfare to keep those on it from having a road up the economic ladder. Democrats have become the party of Rich liberal elitist.
Sure. That's why black left the Republican Party to join the racist Democratic Party. Makes perfect sense.
 
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Ah, that explains why those Republicans in Congress keep wanting to lower their taxes. 🤪
The Democrats have become the liberal elitist party probably due to them becoming an urban party. The Republicans have plenty of money and are the chamber of commerce party and the rural party (Dems use to be the rural party).
 
The Democrats have become the liberal elitist party probably due to them becoming an urban party. The Republicans have plenty of money and are the chamber of commerce party and the rural party (Dems use to be the rural party).
Very true. Its really pretty interesting to see how peoples political beliefs change when the move from a rural to an urban setting or vice-versa. One of my best friends in college was a die-hard young republican, then he moved to NYC and later DC and now he is a Democrat. An employee of mine who was a huge trump supporter moved to Minneapolis and up until the riots was very much heading towards leaning left. Conversely, I recently did a job for a couple that moved from LA, and the wife said that they used to be die-hard liberals but now experiencing small-town America they are voting for Republicans this year. Its interesting how lifestyles can change a person's political views.
 
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Very true. Its really pretty interesting to see how peoples political beliefs change when the move from a rural to an urban setting or vice-versa. One of my best friends in college was a die-hard young republican, then he moved to NYC and later DC and now he is a Democrat. An employee of mine who was a huge trump supporter moved to Minneapolis and up until the riots was very much heading towards leaning left. Conversely, I recently did a job for a couple that moved from LA, and the wife said that they used to be die-hard liberals but now experiencing small-town America they are voting for Republicans this year. Its interesting how lifestyles can change a person's political views.
This is why.

 
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Cute video but you're high. Black people left the Republican Party because they were becoming racist.

"You start out in 1954 by saying, "Ni**er, ni**er, ni**er." By 1968 you can't say "******" — that hurts you. Backfires. So you say stuff like forced busing, states' rights and all that stuff. You're getting so abstract now [that] you're talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you're talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is [that] blacks get hurt worse than whites. And subconsciously maybe that is part of it. I'm not saying that. But I'm saying that if it is getting that abstract, and that coded, that we are doing away with the racial problem one way or the other. You follow me — because obviously sitting around saying, "We want to cut this," is much more abstract than even the busing thing, and a hell of a lot more abstract than "Ni**er, ni**er."

-Lee Atwater

"Son, when I appoint a n***er to the court, I want everyone to know he's a n***er."

"These Negroes, they're getting pretty uppity these days and that's a problem for us since they've got something now they never had before, the political pull to back up their uppityness. Now we've got to do something about this, we've got to give them a little something, just enough to quiet them down, not enough to make a difference... I'll have them n***ers voting Democratic for the next two hundred years."

"I've got to prove it discriminates, and I can't prove it in Texas. There's more n***ers voting than white folks"

All from Democratic President Lyndon B. Johnson

source:

Furthermore, do you realize how stupid it is to admit that the South became more Republican as we started becoming more racist as well?
 
The Democrats have been 100% about identity politics, and supporting groups in masks terrorizing cities for decades. Nothing has changed.
 
"Son, when I appoint a n***er to the court, I want everyone to know he's a n***er."

"These Negroes, they're getting pretty uppity these days and that's a problem for us since they've got something now they never had before, the political pull to back up their uppityness. Now we've got to do something about this, we've got to give them a little something, just enough to quiet them down, not enough to make a difference... I'll have them n***ers voting Democratic for the next two hundred years."

"I've got to prove it discriminates, and I can't prove it in Texas. There's more n***ers voting than white folks"

All from Democratic President Lyndon B. Johnson

source:

Furthermore, do you realize how stupid it is to admit that the South became more Republican as we started becoming more racist as well?
Yep. Southern racist. Between the 50s and 90s they were in both parties.
 
Lots of them.

When I was in high school Sonny Perdue offered me an internship in high school as a democrat, 5-6 years later he was a Republican and ultimately became Governor of GA.
showing me a list of people who have switched parties through nearly 2 centuries of politics, meaning tens of thousands of people is not the same as claiming "one day they all decided to switch"

explain why when the CRA was passed (which was overwhelmingly favored by R's and opposed by D's), only 1 elected official changed parties

there was never a single moment or event that caused a massive shift.
 
showing me a list of people who have switched parties through nearly 2 centuries of politics, meaning tens of thousands of people is not the same as claiming "one day they all decided to switch"

explain why when the CRA was passed (which was overwhelmingly favored by R's and opposed by D's), only 1 elected official changed parties

there was never a single moment or event that caused a massive shift.
Let's just for a moment entertain the idea that racists did leave the democrat party and join the republican party. What could have caused that? Were there policy issues that the democrats dropped or the Republicans dropped that would lead to a switch? It seems to me that the republican party throughout the 20th century was pretty static. Was it Goldwater that led to a shift even though he was pretty much an outlier and not terribly influential in the grand scheme of things?
 
Let's just for a moment entertain the idea that racists did leave the democrat party and join the republican party. What could have caused that? Were there policy issues that the democrats dropped or the Republicans dropped that would lead to a switch? It seems to me that the republican party throughout the 20th century was pretty static. Was it Goldwater that led to a shift even though he was pretty much an outlier and not terribly influential in the grand scheme of things?

I don't expect anyone else here to read a 70 page study on the issue, but the reason the South became more Republican has to do with Republicans seizing business opportunities in the South in a sort of "economic catch-up", which planted the seeds for generations of Republicans.

Here's an important statistic from the study:

"Most important to the question at hand, the entire 17 percentage-point decline in Democratic party identification between 1958 and 1980 is explained by the 19 percentage point decline among Southern whites with [racist] views. Extending the post-period through 2000, 77% of the 20 percentage-point drop is explained by the differential drop among Southern whites with [racist] views."

source: https://www.nber.org/papers/w21703.pdf
 
I don't expect anyone else here to read a 70 page study on the issue, but the reason the South became more Republican has to do with Republicans seizing business opportunities in the South in a sort of "economic catch-up", which planted the seeds for generations of Republicans.

Here's an important statistic from the study:

"Most important to the question at hand, the entire 17 percentage-point decline in Democratic party identification between 1958 and 1980 is explained by the 19 percentage point decline among Southern whites with [racist] views. Extending the post-period through 2000, 77% of the 20 percentage-point drop is explained by the differential drop among Southern whites with [racist] views."

source: https://www.nber.org/papers/w21703.pdf
So the South became more republican because they became less racist?
 
Let's just for a moment entertain the idea that racists did leave the democrat party and join the republican party. What could have caused that? Were there policy issues that the democrats dropped or the Republicans dropped that would lead to a switch? It seems to me that the republican party throughout the 20th century was pretty static. Was it Goldwater that led to a shift even though he was pretty much an outlier and not terribly influential in the grand scheme of things?
Yes, it was Goldwater. Followed by Nixon and Reagan. Shifts like this don't happen over night but blacks went from voting 90% Republican to 90% democratic and the solid south went from voting Democratic in every election to voting Republican in every election over a few decades.
 
Yes, it was Goldwater. Followed by Nixon and Reagan. Shifts like this don't happen over night but blacks went from voting 90% Republican to 90% democratic and the solid south went from voting Democratic in every election to voting Republican in every election over a few decades.

incorrect. blacks began voting Democrat as a result of FDR's New Deal policy.

you're now at odds with History, scholarly studies and common sense all to prove some weird "hurrr everything switched one day" conspiracy theory.

know that us R's aren't like you D's wanting to hold people accountable for transgressions committed by your ancestors. We have faith you've changed, but we're not gonna let yall rewrite history.
 
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