The X-Factor - UCF vs Michigan

[GardenStateUCFan]

I have been reading the analysis of this match-up. They say the UM defense is great and that the UCF offense is in its infancy & just a work in progress. They are telling us the UM offense has lots of weapons. But nobody is talking about the UCF defense. Nobody really knows how good they are!

I think the UM defense will be better than the UCF offense 75% of the time. For UCF to win, I think the UCF defense needs to be better than the UM offense. Is this possible? Nobody knows. It is the X-factor in the game.

Pundits are claiming that UM will win by 35 points. But it could be that Michigan will struggle to score 24 points against UCF's quick, aggressive, swarming defense.

And then there are turnovers, penalities, special teams plays, and trick plays that could have a huge impact on the game. Neither team can claim superiority in those areas. They could go UCF's way all day long.

My guess is that UCFrost will try to shorten the game by playing it UCF slow most of the time. He will try to keep his defense off the field as much as possible and hope the defense can keep it close until the 4th quarter, and at that point UCF will open things up more on offense if need be.

I think UCFrost will want this game to have the fewest total plays possible. Not only does it give him his best chance to win, but it gives him his best chance to leave Ann Arbor with a healthy team. It is a long season.

 

[SublimeKnight]

My guess is that UCFrost will try to shorten the game by playing it UCF slow most of the time. He will try to keep his defense off the field as much as possible and hope the defense can keep it close until the 4th quarter, and at that point UCF will open things up more on offense if need be.

I don't think that is in his nature. Even if it's a good strategy, it takes away from the fearless play he's trying to instill here. All this team knows is playing with fear of mistakes. Whether we win or lose today, I just care about see progress in this regard.

 

[GardenStateUCFan]

I don't think that is in his nature. Even if it's a good strategy, it takes away from the fearless play he's trying to instill here. All this team knows is playing with fear of mistakes. Whether we win or lose today, I just care about see progress in this regard.

UCF can and will play fearless on offense, but for this game, rather than a snap the ball every 8 seconds (as they can do), I think the snaps will normally occur with 5 seconds left on the play clock. On occasion they will go UCFast, but I think we will see them mostly going UCF slow.

The offense may start out UCFast to see how UM responds to it, but if they find UM is well prepared for it, I think UCF will quickly settle into a slow-paced (yet fearless) offense. UCF will certainly try to establish a running game to keep the clock moving. In this particular game, I think UCF will try to keep it's defense fresh with a time-consuming offensive game plan.

 

[SublimeKnight]

Slow tempo is playing into Michigan's hands. They are conditioned like a GOL team, fat, strong, and twitchy. Our defense is conditioned to stay on the field all afternoon, their defense is not conditioned to take snap after snap in short succession. No one on Michigan's roster can run down Killins, but you've got to spring him past that front line. To do that, you've got to tire those fatties out.
I hope they play the way they've prepared to play all off season. If it's a blowout, it's a blowout. Get prepared for FIU/Maryland.

 

[UCFProf]

Okay, here's what Michigan did against Hawaii, which is pretty standard practice when a Big Ten plays a weaker opponent. The offense lined up with two or sometimes three tight ends or with a fullback and tight end and blew defenders off the line of scrimmage. They never punted and almost never faced a third down that wasn't short yardage. So they ran the ball mostly and passes didn't have to be attempted on obvious throwing situations.

Against a better defense like UCF, the modification will be to wear us down with runs and long drives early, even if they need to punt every other possession or settle for long field goals, while expecting tired defenders to give up lots of easy scores from long passes and runs by later in the first half and third quarter. Until then, they all expect the the Michigan defense to force lots of 3 and outs or turnover for short field scores.

The UCF counter strategy will be to (1) play aggressive D to force punts and not being afraid to give up 2 or 3 quick scores that get their offense back on the field, and (2) get lots of possessions and run lots of plays until Michigan tires or is forced to used its inexperienced frosh. UCF needs to get off at least 80 plays to stay in it with any chance of winning.

 

[bignow]

UM still has some questions at QB. Our best hope is to limit their run game and make them throw. Throw O'Korn in there and then the fun begins, UCF loves that guy

 

[GardenStateUCFan]

OK, good stuff everyone. UCFast creates environmental chaos and it gives an advantage to the UCF offense. But if UM handles the chaos well, and UCF is consistently going 3 and out in 60 seconds, I think they will slow it down.

The UCF defense is in good shape, but I don't think they are deep enough to stay strong against a physical team like Michigan if the time of possession is 75% in favor of UM.

Also, I don't think UCFast will wear out the UM fatties. The UM defense is in good shape too, and it has too much depth to become fatigued.

If UCF goes full-bore fast and furious for the entire game, they might find great success. But if UCFast is going 3 and out most of the time, I don't think it will make good sense to keep doing it.

They say teams improve most between games 1 & 2. Maybe the UCFast offense will be ready for prime time this week and UCF will take the reigns off and leave them off.

Perhaps Killens will have 4 long TD runs in the 1st half as a result of the chaos created by UCFast. I certainly would not mind seeing that.

I think the evolution of game will determine the tactics. They will start with one game plan but be flexible and adjust based on how the GP is working.

Regardless of the strategy, I just want to see UCF Rise and Conquer.

 

[UCF0509]

Doesn't matter if we tire the starters out when you have the depth Michigan has... Their two-deep on defense doesn't have a frosh... And only 4 underclassmen

 

[UCFProf]

They were "two deep" before the injuries. Also, UCF's defense is two deep and mostly upperclassmen, with senior DBs. The youth is on offense and an outstanding DL guy who just turned 17!!! Frost over conditioned his guys to play a full game and a half. Long before play number 85, your guys will be gasping for breath. The ball gets snapped within seven seconds after the refs start the clock. The real weakness the OLine! That's where you could take advantage if you had a healthy line and had enough time to practice against the "blur" offense.

 

[GuessYouWereWrong]

Michigan runs 4-hour practices during camp. The players claim the practices are the hardest they've ever participated in and since they have been running this format they're now in the best shape of their lives.

 

[GardenStateUCFan]

Michigan runs 4-hour practices during camp. The players claim the practices are the hardest they've ever participated in and since they have been running this format they're now in the best shape of their lives.

I think the physicality of the UM offensive line is a factor that UCF will have to take into consideration. More than any offense UCF faces this year, UM's will have the ability to wear UCF's defense out. That is why I think UCFrost will pull back on UCFast if the chaos it creates is not giving them an advantage.

If the chaos of UCFast is not providing an advantage, then I think UCF will slow it down and allow the defense to stay as fresh as possible.

 

[SublimeKnight]

. No one on Michigan's roster can run down Killins, but you've got to spring him past that front line.

 

[meee2]

UCFast and WildKnight are just lame attempts to take something from somewhere else failing to make it their own.