Terry Mohajir has a decision to make.
For the fifth consecutive year in which there was a postseason, UCF Baseball will not be in it.
Greg Lovelady, in his first season as UCF head coach in 2017, hit lightning in a bottle by capturing the regular season AAC championship and an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament. Winning records have followed every year, but it hasn't been enough to win the AAC or gain an at-large berth.
Lovelady's UCF records:
2017: 40-22 (15-9 AAC)
2018: 35-21 (13-10 AAC)
2019: 36-22 (11-13 AAC)
2020: 15-3 (COVID)
2021: 31-30 (18-14 AAC)
2022: 35-25 (14-10 AAC)
2023: 33-26 (12-12 AAC)
Lovelady has two more years on a contract (through the 2025 season) that will pay him $250,000 per season. The buyout would be half of the total remaining sum ($250K) but would be mitgated by future employment so maybe a bit less.
For all the turmoil this season - losing your pitching coach over Christmas break and then the disgruntled ex-player's allegations - UCF still persevered. Outside of the two-week stretch early in the AAC season losing 2/3 to usf and then getting swept at ECU, UCF won 5 of the remaining 6 series. Really should have won all six, but blew a very winnable game the Houston weekend.
While there were head-scratching results at times, this team never quit. They got run-ruled by Tulane on a Saturday, but came back the next day and won the series. They got run-ruled by Cincinnati in the opening game, then came back and won the next two. Even today vs. ECU, after giving up a grand slam and seeing an early deficit, UCF battled back to tie and stretched it out into 13 innings.
Even during the midseason bat controversy, there's been some stuff that has never really been public. I'm hesitant to say it explicitly, but when Lovelady says there are "layers" to everything that's what he's referring to. There were some legitimately-founded fears about personal safety.
The glaring defiency this season was pitching. There just weren't enough quality arms. UCF never could find a consistent weekend rotation. Ruddy Gomez was great in the first part of the year, but trailed off towards the end. Cam Leiter was supposed to be that guy, but those were big expectations for a freshman. He eventually found his footing and put forth his best start in the conference tournament. Ben Vespi clearly had some sort of lingering injury thing and didn't live up to expectations.
One aspect that deserves mentioning is the downfall of the AAC. The league had been ranked as high as No. 3 in 2015, but fell to the No. 9 conference this year. Don't get me wrong, this isn't an excuse, but even if UCF won a few more games to get closer to 40 wins I think the RPI still would have been a major issue.
In the post-COVID era, the AAC has essentially been a single-bid league. In 2021, usf had a major upset by winning the conference tournament (and somehow made it to a super). That was the only way the AAC got two teams in. In 2022, ECU was the only team to make it. A second team may make it this year, but that's only if ECU gets beat in the tourney.
Some of the RPI stuff was UCF's doing. Dartmouth is the third worst team in Division I according to RPI (No. 303) and Siena is 269. Though to their credit, UCF swept Clemson which went on to have a fantastic year and is currently ranked No. 6 in RPI. Some of the RPI stuff frankly confused me - UCF's RPI seemed terrible the entire season even prior to conference play. Again, doesn't really matter now other than to say the current environment dictated UCF had to win the conference or else.
In some ways, the Lovelady situation is similar to Johnny Dawkins. Their teams are mostly competitive by and large, maybe above average but not good enough to get over the hump to be a conference or national contender.
Frankly, I'm surprised UCF never really took off after that 2017 season. Lovelady looked the part - Florida native, major cred as a former player at Miami and had a successful track record as a head coach at Wright State. It just hasn't translated. A lot of people always say to me it's about recruiting or lack thereof. Not taking advantage of the state you reside in. Concentrating too hard on midwestern states. Failing to identify and develop pitching.
For TMo, I think he definitely heard the fan outcry from some regarding Johnny. They made the NIT though and replacing him would have taken a much larger financial commitment. I do wonder if TMo sees this as an opportunity to show the fanbase he will fire a coach for performance. The threshold to making a change in baseball is a much lower bar in terms of buyout compared to basketball.
Roster wise, there are a lot of questions as UCF transitions to the Big 12. You can never take anything for granted in the transfer/NIL era, but there are only a few notable younger players. Cam Leiter is probably the only pitcher of note, and lineup wise Andrew Sundean, Drew Faurot and Lex Boedicker. Ben McCabe, Nick Romano and Tom Josten are out of eligibility. JRP has one year left. Who knows what portal will bring or how the incoming freshman class will translate, but 2024 will see a lot of new faces one way or another.
Baseball has easily been the most underperforming sport on campus. In the late 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s it would have been considered UCF's premier sport and the one with the best path to being nationally competitive. But the program has taken a huge downfall since the move to C-USA in 2006, making just three regionals (2011, 2012, 2017) in 18 years.
Moving to the Big 12 should definitely help. UCF won't have to win the conference to make a regional. The Big 12 is currently ranked No. 3 in RPI of all the conferences and 7 of the 9 schools are slated to make a regional (Iowa State dropped baseball years ago). That includes teams with .500 records in conference play, like Texas Tech (12-12) and even LOSING conference records, like Oklahoma (11-13).
We'll see how the RPI dynamic changes for the Big 12 going from 9 to 13 schools, but if UCF can do reasonably well in their OOC slate and pull off a .500ish year in the Big 12, that might be enough to make a regional.
I think we'll get resolution by early next week on what TMo decides. Does he give Lovelady another year and an opportunity to show he can win in the Big 12? Or does he cut the cord and start anew?
I have the feeling it's trending towards the latter, but I don't believe a final determination has been made.
Will financial considerations come into play? The buyout situation isn't like basketball, but it will take a much bigger commitment to a new coaching staff. I believe the lowest-paid head coaches in the Big 12 make $500,000-plus per year. Granted, UCF will have to adjust salaries across the board at some point but it has seemed they were trying to hold off as long as possible, or at least until they're closer to receiving a full revenue share.
What are your thoughts?
For the fifth consecutive year in which there was a postseason, UCF Baseball will not be in it.
Greg Lovelady, in his first season as UCF head coach in 2017, hit lightning in a bottle by capturing the regular season AAC championship and an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament. Winning records have followed every year, but it hasn't been enough to win the AAC or gain an at-large berth.
Lovelady's UCF records:
2017: 40-22 (15-9 AAC)
2018: 35-21 (13-10 AAC)
2019: 36-22 (11-13 AAC)
2020: 15-3 (COVID)
2021: 31-30 (18-14 AAC)
2022: 35-25 (14-10 AAC)
2023: 33-26 (12-12 AAC)
Lovelady has two more years on a contract (through the 2025 season) that will pay him $250,000 per season. The buyout would be half of the total remaining sum ($250K) but would be mitgated by future employment so maybe a bit less.
For all the turmoil this season - losing your pitching coach over Christmas break and then the disgruntled ex-player's allegations - UCF still persevered. Outside of the two-week stretch early in the AAC season losing 2/3 to usf and then getting swept at ECU, UCF won 5 of the remaining 6 series. Really should have won all six, but blew a very winnable game the Houston weekend.
While there were head-scratching results at times, this team never quit. They got run-ruled by Tulane on a Saturday, but came back the next day and won the series. They got run-ruled by Cincinnati in the opening game, then came back and won the next two. Even today vs. ECU, after giving up a grand slam and seeing an early deficit, UCF battled back to tie and stretched it out into 13 innings.
Even during the midseason bat controversy, there's been some stuff that has never really been public. I'm hesitant to say it explicitly, but when Lovelady says there are "layers" to everything that's what he's referring to. There were some legitimately-founded fears about personal safety.
The glaring defiency this season was pitching. There just weren't enough quality arms. UCF never could find a consistent weekend rotation. Ruddy Gomez was great in the first part of the year, but trailed off towards the end. Cam Leiter was supposed to be that guy, but those were big expectations for a freshman. He eventually found his footing and put forth his best start in the conference tournament. Ben Vespi clearly had some sort of lingering injury thing and didn't live up to expectations.
One aspect that deserves mentioning is the downfall of the AAC. The league had been ranked as high as No. 3 in 2015, but fell to the No. 9 conference this year. Don't get me wrong, this isn't an excuse, but even if UCF won a few more games to get closer to 40 wins I think the RPI still would have been a major issue.
In the post-COVID era, the AAC has essentially been a single-bid league. In 2021, usf had a major upset by winning the conference tournament (and somehow made it to a super). That was the only way the AAC got two teams in. In 2022, ECU was the only team to make it. A second team may make it this year, but that's only if ECU gets beat in the tourney.
Some of the RPI stuff was UCF's doing. Dartmouth is the third worst team in Division I according to RPI (No. 303) and Siena is 269. Though to their credit, UCF swept Clemson which went on to have a fantastic year and is currently ranked No. 6 in RPI. Some of the RPI stuff frankly confused me - UCF's RPI seemed terrible the entire season even prior to conference play. Again, doesn't really matter now other than to say the current environment dictated UCF had to win the conference or else.
In some ways, the Lovelady situation is similar to Johnny Dawkins. Their teams are mostly competitive by and large, maybe above average but not good enough to get over the hump to be a conference or national contender.
Frankly, I'm surprised UCF never really took off after that 2017 season. Lovelady looked the part - Florida native, major cred as a former player at Miami and had a successful track record as a head coach at Wright State. It just hasn't translated. A lot of people always say to me it's about recruiting or lack thereof. Not taking advantage of the state you reside in. Concentrating too hard on midwestern states. Failing to identify and develop pitching.
For TMo, I think he definitely heard the fan outcry from some regarding Johnny. They made the NIT though and replacing him would have taken a much larger financial commitment. I do wonder if TMo sees this as an opportunity to show the fanbase he will fire a coach for performance. The threshold to making a change in baseball is a much lower bar in terms of buyout compared to basketball.
Roster wise, there are a lot of questions as UCF transitions to the Big 12. You can never take anything for granted in the transfer/NIL era, but there are only a few notable younger players. Cam Leiter is probably the only pitcher of note, and lineup wise Andrew Sundean, Drew Faurot and Lex Boedicker. Ben McCabe, Nick Romano and Tom Josten are out of eligibility. JRP has one year left. Who knows what portal will bring or how the incoming freshman class will translate, but 2024 will see a lot of new faces one way or another.
Baseball has easily been the most underperforming sport on campus. In the late 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s it would have been considered UCF's premier sport and the one with the best path to being nationally competitive. But the program has taken a huge downfall since the move to C-USA in 2006, making just three regionals (2011, 2012, 2017) in 18 years.
Moving to the Big 12 should definitely help. UCF won't have to win the conference to make a regional. The Big 12 is currently ranked No. 3 in RPI of all the conferences and 7 of the 9 schools are slated to make a regional (Iowa State dropped baseball years ago). That includes teams with .500 records in conference play, like Texas Tech (12-12) and even LOSING conference records, like Oklahoma (11-13).
We'll see how the RPI dynamic changes for the Big 12 going from 9 to 13 schools, but if UCF can do reasonably well in their OOC slate and pull off a .500ish year in the Big 12, that might be enough to make a regional.
I think we'll get resolution by early next week on what TMo decides. Does he give Lovelady another year and an opportunity to show he can win in the Big 12? Or does he cut the cord and start anew?
I have the feeling it's trending towards the latter, but I don't believe a final determination has been made.
Will financial considerations come into play? The buyout situation isn't like basketball, but it will take a much bigger commitment to a new coaching staff. I believe the lowest-paid head coaches in the Big 12 make $500,000-plus per year. Granted, UCF will have to adjust salaries across the board at some point but it has seemed they were trying to hold off as long as possible, or at least until they're closer to receiving a full revenue share.
What are your thoughts?
