Outside of the 2018-19 team that followed their NIT run with an NCAA Tournament season, I felt like this was perhaps the second-most anticipated team in UCF history (at least in the modern era).
Thanks to the COVID extra season of eligibility, UCF was able to bring back Darius Perry and Brandon Mahan giving way to talk this could be the "deepest" roster in UCF history.
In short, every impact player returned and there were high hopes incoming players like Darius Johnson, Cheikh Mbacke Diong and Tyem Freeman would fill in remaining gaps to give Johnny Dawkins a solid rotation.
A return to the NCAA Tournament was the goal and seemed attainable. Which is why this season was so disappointing.
Things looked promising at the conclusion of the non-conference slate. UCF was 9-2 heading into January (one of those wins was an early AAC victory at Temple) with signature wins against Miami and Michigan and losses to Auburn and Oklahoma (and the OU game was winnable, losing by 3).
Of those four marquee games, Auburn was the No. 1 team in the country for several weeks and may end up a No. 2 seed in the tourney. Miami was also solid in the ACC and could be a 10 seed. Michigan is considered a bubble team barely in at the moment, while OU is among the "first four out."
Figuring Houston and Memphis would be the class of the AAC, UCF probably needed to be in that No. 3 range in the AAC to have a shot. But there would be little room for error.
UCF began January by losing three of their first four AAC games, including bad losses to Temple (blowing a lead at home) and getting crushed by South Florida on the road. Following that game, they needed a miracle to tie ECU in regulation and then won it in OT.
At that point, it was pretty clear this was not going to be tournament-contending team.
Yeah, UCF did have a nice early win against Memphis at home but that was when the Tigers had roster issues and hadn't yet figured things out. As we've seen in recent weeks, they're rolling now and should be an 8/9 seed in the tournament and probably better than that in actuality.
Houston had their way with UCF during both meetings. SMU won easily in the only meeting. And while there were competitive moments in the latter two matchups against Memphis, the Tigers still rolled over UCF.
While UCF was competitive with the rest of the AAC, just a game out of a first-round bye, the inconsistency was frustrating.
Of UCF's three top players - Darius Perry, Brandon Mahan and Darin Green - it seemed like it was illegal for all three to have solid games on the same night. It always seemed one or two would do well, while the third would have an awful game.
Case in point last night vs. Memphis - With Brandon Mahan not close to 100 percent and limited with the ankle injury, UCF needed DP and DG to step up. Perry did, scoring 23 points including 4-of-8 from three. Darin Green had one of his worst games of the season, shooting 2-of-14 with just one three-pointer. And he played nearly 40 minutes too.
Beyond the top six of Perry, Mahan, Green, Darius Johnson C.J. Walker and Cheikh Mbacke Diong - all of whom nearly played double the minutes of everybody else on the roster, the so-called "deepest" team in UCF history didn't really pan out.
Isaiah Adams, though he had a couple solid games towards the end, had a lackluster if not poor season given the expectations. Jamille Reynolds was serviceable in his limited role, but not progressing enough to be considered a starter-worthy player.
Tony Johnson Jr. and Sean Mobley oddly disappeared without explanation - both were rumored to have COVID/quarantine type issues in December - though neither was expected to be a primary contributor.
Injuries weren't really an issue until late in the season - if Brandon Mahan is healthy and Darin Green Jr. doesn't miss the Tulane game, UCF would have had a better chance to get a first-round bye.
I've been reading everyone's posts and to be honest, everybody is making good points.
Was this season a disappointment? Yes. It is fair to point out UCF's inadequacies compared to peer schools, such as budget, facilities, travel, etc.? Also yes.
Regardless of who the head coach is, one of Terry Mohajir's biggest jobs will be figuring out basketball heading into the Big 12. If UCF thought competing with the likes of Memphis, Houston and Wichita State was a challenge, that will be dwarfed heading into a league that still will have a solid argument to be the No. 1 league in college basketball.
I know this link has been tossed around in recent weeks, but it's worth revisiting. Basically, a breakdown of MBB budgets. Somewhat dated (April 2020) but it's the most up-to-date figures I believe.
www.three-man-weave.com
UCF's MBB budget was NEXT TO LAST in the AAC. This even after UCF's landmark season of 2018-19.
The list:
1. Houston - $9.2M
2. Memphis - $8.2M
3. Wichita State - $8.1M
4. Cincinnati - $7.6M
5. SMU - $7.5M
6. Temple - $6.4M
7. Tulsa - $6.1M
8. Tulane - $4.9M
9. South Florida - $4.9M
10. UCF - $4.5M
11. ECU - $3.9M
Jeff Sharon utilized the figures in a series of tweets last month, including this one which shows have much UCF has overachieved relative to budget:
And for the question everybody has... I'm not sure I have a great handle of how TMo views Johnny Dawkins and basketball in general. When Danny White arrived, it was a foregone conclusion Donnie Jones was a dead-man walking and would be fired at season's end.
Donnie could have been fired after the initial infractions, but UCF kept him around and put the blame on Tribble. Then Stansbury never wanted to fire anybody so he stuck around a few more years.
For basketball issues, TMo values the opinion of his second-in-command, Rich Zvosec, who is a former basketball coach at North Florida and UMKC. (Fun Fact: A Speraw-led UCF team played an in-season home and home series with UMKC and Zvosec in 2004 because both teams needed to fill multiple holes in their OOC schedule. UCF won both games).
UCF is still trying to figure out their financial situation heading into the Big 12, including where the AAC buyout money is coming from. They're trying to determine whether it's best to keep corporate sponsorship sales in-house (which had been successful before talent was gutted) or realign with an outside partner like Learfield IMG.
Is UCF ready to make a broader commitment to the MBB program, which would entail more than just replacing a coaching staff?
Johnny Dawkins is still the best coach in UCF's Division I history, nationally respected and "overachieving" given UCF's commitment.
A few other points...
Facilities - The UCF Arena is fine as a gameday facility, though obviously the "presentation" is an issue with the empty club section, cavernous "courtside club" behind the basket, etc. (which is another argument). The existing practice facility, weight room, etc. is nothing special and needs an upgrade. UCF has drawn up plans for a new hoops facility - part of the master plan that TMo talked about last fall when unveiling the football-specific upgrades. For some reason, that has not been released.
Fan support - Frankly, it's never been good. I'd love to see turnstile attendance numbers through the years. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems UCF's core season ticket base has been dwindling over the past 10 years. It wasn't great before, but I thought the upper parts of 105/106/107 used to be more populated. Club seat attendance has always been bad, which we know looks awful on TV. Are all those tickets sold and people just don't come? There are more premium offerings these days with expanded courtside seating, so did those seats take away from regular club?
COVID may have taken a bite out of attendance, especially in late December and early January when Omicron was running rampant. Hard to say. But it's clear the season ticket base has taken a hit.
Of course, it's a lot easier these days to follow the team with every game on TV or ESPN+. And it doesn't help when ESPN decides to put two home games at 9 p.m. on a weeknight.
Student attendance I thought was pretty good this year. I went back and looked at photos from the early days of the arena (2007-11 type era) and while UCF might have had a few more "rowdier" front-facing fans, I think overall student attendance is better today than it was back then.
Roster - I'm expecting a lot of transfer portal action. Potentially both ways. I think Darius Johnson (assuming dad remains on staff), C.J. Walker and Tyem Freeman are the best bets to return.
Darin Green Jr.? Could he be frustrated with the lack of postseason and see what sort of interest there is in the portal? Dre Fuller? He's already graduated and walked on senior night, which I think says something. Isaiah Adams? You'd love to see him realize his potential and develop into a star, but you wonder if his stagnation may have him thinking he needs a change of scenery. I'm curious to see how it plays out.
UCF only has two signees: The Hendricks twins, Taylor and Tyler. Taylor is a four-star power forward.
UCF is among the prominent schools in the mix for 2022 center Jeremy Foumena from Canada.
Beyond that, I think most other additions will be in the form of transfers.
Thanks to the COVID extra season of eligibility, UCF was able to bring back Darius Perry and Brandon Mahan giving way to talk this could be the "deepest" roster in UCF history.
In short, every impact player returned and there were high hopes incoming players like Darius Johnson, Cheikh Mbacke Diong and Tyem Freeman would fill in remaining gaps to give Johnny Dawkins a solid rotation.
A return to the NCAA Tournament was the goal and seemed attainable. Which is why this season was so disappointing.
Things looked promising at the conclusion of the non-conference slate. UCF was 9-2 heading into January (one of those wins was an early AAC victory at Temple) with signature wins against Miami and Michigan and losses to Auburn and Oklahoma (and the OU game was winnable, losing by 3).
Of those four marquee games, Auburn was the No. 1 team in the country for several weeks and may end up a No. 2 seed in the tourney. Miami was also solid in the ACC and could be a 10 seed. Michigan is considered a bubble team barely in at the moment, while OU is among the "first four out."
Figuring Houston and Memphis would be the class of the AAC, UCF probably needed to be in that No. 3 range in the AAC to have a shot. But there would be little room for error.
UCF began January by losing three of their first four AAC games, including bad losses to Temple (blowing a lead at home) and getting crushed by South Florida on the road. Following that game, they needed a miracle to tie ECU in regulation and then won it in OT.
At that point, it was pretty clear this was not going to be tournament-contending team.
Yeah, UCF did have a nice early win against Memphis at home but that was when the Tigers had roster issues and hadn't yet figured things out. As we've seen in recent weeks, they're rolling now and should be an 8/9 seed in the tournament and probably better than that in actuality.
Houston had their way with UCF during both meetings. SMU won easily in the only meeting. And while there were competitive moments in the latter two matchups against Memphis, the Tigers still rolled over UCF.
While UCF was competitive with the rest of the AAC, just a game out of a first-round bye, the inconsistency was frustrating.
Of UCF's three top players - Darius Perry, Brandon Mahan and Darin Green - it seemed like it was illegal for all three to have solid games on the same night. It always seemed one or two would do well, while the third would have an awful game.
Case in point last night vs. Memphis - With Brandon Mahan not close to 100 percent and limited with the ankle injury, UCF needed DP and DG to step up. Perry did, scoring 23 points including 4-of-8 from three. Darin Green had one of his worst games of the season, shooting 2-of-14 with just one three-pointer. And he played nearly 40 minutes too.
Beyond the top six of Perry, Mahan, Green, Darius Johnson C.J. Walker and Cheikh Mbacke Diong - all of whom nearly played double the minutes of everybody else on the roster, the so-called "deepest" team in UCF history didn't really pan out.
Isaiah Adams, though he had a couple solid games towards the end, had a lackluster if not poor season given the expectations. Jamille Reynolds was serviceable in his limited role, but not progressing enough to be considered a starter-worthy player.
Tony Johnson Jr. and Sean Mobley oddly disappeared without explanation - both were rumored to have COVID/quarantine type issues in December - though neither was expected to be a primary contributor.
Injuries weren't really an issue until late in the season - if Brandon Mahan is healthy and Darin Green Jr. doesn't miss the Tulane game, UCF would have had a better chance to get a first-round bye.
I've been reading everyone's posts and to be honest, everybody is making good points.
Was this season a disappointment? Yes. It is fair to point out UCF's inadequacies compared to peer schools, such as budget, facilities, travel, etc.? Also yes.
Regardless of who the head coach is, one of Terry Mohajir's biggest jobs will be figuring out basketball heading into the Big 12. If UCF thought competing with the likes of Memphis, Houston and Wichita State was a challenge, that will be dwarfed heading into a league that still will have a solid argument to be the No. 1 league in college basketball.
I know this link has been tossed around in recent weeks, but it's worth revisiting. Basically, a breakdown of MBB budgets. Somewhat dated (April 2020) but it's the most up-to-date figures I believe.
Fun with Finances: Basketball Budgets — Three-Man-Weave
In the doldrums of the offseason, we pivoted off the basketball court to open up the accounting ledger. Using the most recent Department of Higher Education numbers, here’s a quick look at each team’s spending situation.
www.three-man-weave.com
UCF's MBB budget was NEXT TO LAST in the AAC. This even after UCF's landmark season of 2018-19.
The list:
1. Houston - $9.2M
2. Memphis - $8.2M
3. Wichita State - $8.1M
4. Cincinnati - $7.6M
5. SMU - $7.5M
6. Temple - $6.4M
7. Tulsa - $6.1M
8. Tulane - $4.9M
9. South Florida - $4.9M
10. UCF - $4.5M
11. ECU - $3.9M
Jeff Sharon utilized the figures in a series of tweets last month, including this one which shows have much UCF has overachieved relative to budget:
And for the question everybody has... I'm not sure I have a great handle of how TMo views Johnny Dawkins and basketball in general. When Danny White arrived, it was a foregone conclusion Donnie Jones was a dead-man walking and would be fired at season's end.
Donnie could have been fired after the initial infractions, but UCF kept him around and put the blame on Tribble. Then Stansbury never wanted to fire anybody so he stuck around a few more years.
For basketball issues, TMo values the opinion of his second-in-command, Rich Zvosec, who is a former basketball coach at North Florida and UMKC. (Fun Fact: A Speraw-led UCF team played an in-season home and home series with UMKC and Zvosec in 2004 because both teams needed to fill multiple holes in their OOC schedule. UCF won both games).
UCF is still trying to figure out their financial situation heading into the Big 12, including where the AAC buyout money is coming from. They're trying to determine whether it's best to keep corporate sponsorship sales in-house (which had been successful before talent was gutted) or realign with an outside partner like Learfield IMG.
Is UCF ready to make a broader commitment to the MBB program, which would entail more than just replacing a coaching staff?
Johnny Dawkins is still the best coach in UCF's Division I history, nationally respected and "overachieving" given UCF's commitment.
A few other points...
Facilities - The UCF Arena is fine as a gameday facility, though obviously the "presentation" is an issue with the empty club section, cavernous "courtside club" behind the basket, etc. (which is another argument). The existing practice facility, weight room, etc. is nothing special and needs an upgrade. UCF has drawn up plans for a new hoops facility - part of the master plan that TMo talked about last fall when unveiling the football-specific upgrades. For some reason, that has not been released.
Fan support - Frankly, it's never been good. I'd love to see turnstile attendance numbers through the years. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems UCF's core season ticket base has been dwindling over the past 10 years. It wasn't great before, but I thought the upper parts of 105/106/107 used to be more populated. Club seat attendance has always been bad, which we know looks awful on TV. Are all those tickets sold and people just don't come? There are more premium offerings these days with expanded courtside seating, so did those seats take away from regular club?
COVID may have taken a bite out of attendance, especially in late December and early January when Omicron was running rampant. Hard to say. But it's clear the season ticket base has taken a hit.
Of course, it's a lot easier these days to follow the team with every game on TV or ESPN+. And it doesn't help when ESPN decides to put two home games at 9 p.m. on a weeknight.
Student attendance I thought was pretty good this year. I went back and looked at photos from the early days of the arena (2007-11 type era) and while UCF might have had a few more "rowdier" front-facing fans, I think overall student attendance is better today than it was back then.
Roster - I'm expecting a lot of transfer portal action. Potentially both ways. I think Darius Johnson (assuming dad remains on staff), C.J. Walker and Tyem Freeman are the best bets to return.
Darin Green Jr.? Could he be frustrated with the lack of postseason and see what sort of interest there is in the portal? Dre Fuller? He's already graduated and walked on senior night, which I think says something. Isaiah Adams? You'd love to see him realize his potential and develop into a star, but you wonder if his stagnation may have him thinking he needs a change of scenery. I'm curious to see how it plays out.
UCF only has two signees: The Hendricks twins, Taylor and Tyler. Taylor is a four-star power forward.
UCF is among the prominent schools in the mix for 2022 center Jeremy Foumena from Canada.
Beyond that, I think most other additions will be in the form of transfers.
