Tied 7-7, 4th and goal in the first quarter vs Memphis

[ucfjosh2000]

I know a lot of people would disagree with me these days, but I hate going for that instead of kicking the easy field goal in that situation. People argue field goals aren't going to win you the game, which I agree. But I would argue that we are good enough to score a ton of TDs in that game, so going for a low percentage 4th and goal instead of taking 3 points isn't smart. And in the end, those extra 3 point would have been really nice to have. If it was from the 1 or 2 yard line, then I think you could argue either way, but not from the 4 when they know you aren't going to run.

There's a time to be aggressive and a time to be smart, and in my opinion Heupel blew it there.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

I know a lot of people would disagree with me these days, but I hate going for that instead of kicking the easy field goal in that situation. People argue field goals aren't going to win you the game, which I agree. But I would argue that we are good enough to score a ton of TDs in that game, so going for a low percentage 4th and goal instead of taking 3 points isn't smart. And in the end, those extra 3 point would have been really nice to have. If it was from the 1 or 2 yard line, then I think you could argue either way, but not from the 4 when they know you aren't going to run.

There's a time to be aggressive and a time to be smart, and in my opinion Heupel blew it there.

It was the statistically sound play. The game featured 14 touchdowns and no field goals. It happened to be decided by a single point but that decision wasn’t the difference. There are also considerations to field position. Even taking the 3 (not a given considering missed 21 yarder last game), you are then spotting them much better field position on the ensuing drive than starting at the 4 or worse. If we think a field goal is a 90% play there then it’s a much better decision to go for the touchdown if you can make it even half the time. Looking back with benefit of hindsight you can complain about the decision, but there have been other instances where UCF goes on 4th and gets the TD that don’t get knitpicked or even given much of a second thought. It’s part of the aggressive game plan and strategy. UCF has a high percentage of successful offensive plays. In fact the proper call on that particular play would have been a pass interference on Marlon Williams.

 

[Knight_Classes_begin_7pm]

All good points. I don't think that a missed field goal (from the ball being on the 3 yard line) gives the opponent a "much better" field better position in this case. It gives them a better position but you have to consider how our defense was playing. Memphis moved the ball at will, so I would have taken the field goal try knowing that if we missed, the 3 yard line or the 25 yard line, were virtually the same. Also given our terrible red-zone play......TAKE THE POINTS. But it's really 50/50 on this one and hind sight does come into play (along with special teams FG kicking).

 

[hemightbejeremy]

All good points. I don't think that a missed field goal (from the ball being on the 3 yard line) gives the opponent a "much better" field better position in this case. It gives them a better position but you have to consider how our defense was playing. Memphis moved the ball at will, so I would have taken the field goal try knowing that if we missed, the 3 yard line or the 25 yard line, were virtually the same. Also given our terrible red-zone play......TAKE THE POINTS. But it's really 50/50 on this one and hind sight does come into play (along with special teams FG kicking).

If you subscribe to advanced metrics, there is no scenario outside of a game winning kick where you kick a field goal on 4th and 3. On average across all of football more than half of plays gain at least 4 yards. When you are talking about more elite offenses it makes even more sense to go for it. Traditionally football teams punt or kick in 4th situations due to optics and historically games being lower scoring than they are today. That doesn’t make it the best strategy from an expected points standpoint.

 

[mattropolis]

I know a lot of people would disagree with me these days, but I hate going for that instead of kicking the easy field goal in that situation. People argue field goals aren't going to win you the game, which I agree. But I would argue that we are good enough to score a ton of TDs in that game, so going for a low percentage 4th and goal instead of taking 3 points isn't smart. And in the end, those extra 3 point would have been really nice to have. If it was from the 1 or 2 yard line, then I think you could argue either way, but not from the 4 when they know you aren't going to run.

There's a time to be aggressive and a time to be smart, and in my opinion Heupel blew it there.

You kick the FG. On the road, after a long drive, after a turnover. I harpef on it every score after that...."we should be up by 3 additional points. We will probably lose by less than three."

BTW, it's an epidemic problem by college coaches now. I don't understand chasing points at the beginning of games. UNC could have been tied with FSU at the end of regulation if Mack Brown kicked a FG in the first half instead of going for it....on the road. We lost to Pitt chasing points instead of taking points on the road.

 

[Wings0fred]

Idk if it was a factor, but We missed a kick from less distance vs Tulsa.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

You kick the FG. On the road, after a long drive, after a turnover. I harpef on it every score after that...."we should be up by 3 additional points. We will probably lose by less than three."

BTW, it's an epidemic problem by college coaches now. I don't understand chasing points at the beginning of games. UNC could have been tied with FSU at the end of regulation if Mack Brown kicked a FG in the first half instead of going for it....on the road. We lost to Pitt chasing points instead of taking points on the road.

The FG is a worse return than going from an expected points perspective. Here is an article explaining why.

4th Down Study - Advanced Football Analytics

Pioneering research and analysis of NFL football. The site that made modern football analytics a reality.

www.advancedfootballanalytics.com

Here is the general chart (obviously can changelate game strategy to secure a win)

 

[Money_Milton]

A big detail about going for it here is starting field position. If you don't get it, Memphis is starting from their own 4. Compared to their own 25 (assuming touchback) or own 20 (missed FG). UCF kicked a FG and missed on a 4th and goal from 4 vs. Tulsa.

Memphis went on a 56 yard drive following this and had to punt because they started so backed up. Starting field position is huge.

I did the math for the Tulsa 4th and 4 and it's virtually a 50/50 coin flip with a slight edge to going for it.

While UCF didn't get the 3 points, they also probably saved giving up 3 points with Memphis starting so backed up.

Obviously there's no guarantee Memphis goes on a 60 yard drive if they start at their own 25 after a touchback, but still.

 

[mattropolis]

The FG is a worse return than going from an expected points perspective. Here is an article explaining why.

4th Down Study - Advanced Football Analytics

Pioneering research and analysis of NFL football. The site that made modern football analytics a reality.

www.advancedfootballanalytics.com

Here is the general chart (obviously can changelate game strategy to secure a win)

We lost by 1. We kick a FG and win by 2. That's all the math I need to know. If these stats and analytics are so great why do we need coaches all? Just let computers make every play call and decision.

 

[ElprofesorJuan]

The FG is a worse return than going from an expected points perspective. Here is an article explaining why.

4th Down Study - Advanced Football Analytics

Pioneering research and analysis of NFL football. The site that made modern football analytics a reality.

www.advancedfootballanalytics.com

Here is the general chart (obviously can changelate game strategy to secure a win)

You can post metrics..The thing is we have lost close games..How about we try something new.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

We lost by 1. We kick a FG and win by 2. That's all the math I need to know. If these stats and analytics are so great why do we need coaches all? Just let computers make every play call and decision.

That’s why you are a fan and not a coach. As was already stated we failed and Memphis settled for a punt the ensuing drive after starting at the 4 where 21 more yards of field positions would have had them in easy FG range.

Also if you are averse to “computers making decisions”, the article I linked shows math you can do by hand.

 

[Lord Christopher]

The missed opportunity at the 4 yard line was just one of many mistakes in the game. If we do not get more disciplined and play fundamentally sound football, we will lose more games. It's that simple. I expect this season to be a training lesson for next year.

 

[Knight Strength]

I support going for it in 4th down near the goal line...

If you have a 50% chance to get a TD, odds are you'll get 7 points every two drives.

If you have a 100% chance of making a FG, odds are you'll get 6 points every two drives. This would result in losing by more points in a game where Memphis stated they were going for it every 4th down and our defense didn't drop them a single time. Not once!

It's smart strategy to go for it in those 4th down situations. Of course playcalling and execution need to be solid.

 

[Knight Strength]

The result of a game isnt what happens on one drive. It's all of the drives added up.

 

[mattropolis]

That’s why you are a fan and not a coach. As was already stated we failed and Memphis settled for a punt the ensuing drive after starting at the 4 where 21 more yards of field positions would have had them in easy FG range.

Also if you are averse to “computers making decisions”, the article I linked shows math you can do by hand.

I forgot, you're the greatest coach of all time....not actually coaching football at all. And to think you could be making 2.3 million coaching UCF right now. In fact, you could get paid even more because you would need so much less staff, because you have some analytics to use. My bad.

Computers and analytics help you find trends and percentages that you can hopefully take advantage of. Those analytics go out the window on any single play.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

I forgot, you're the greatest coach of all time....not actually coaching football at all. And to think you could be making 2.3 million coaching UCF right now. In fact, you could get paid even more because you would need so much less staff, because you have some analytics to use. My bad.

Computers and analytics help you find trends and percentages that you can hopefully take advantage of. Those analytics go out the window on any single play.

You are the one disagreeing with the decision of the actual coach...in case you missed it. Lol.

 

[firm_bizzle]

Always take the points on the road early. You might need them later.

 

[ucfjosh2000]

I would love to see how many times we have gone for a TD on 4th and goal (or worse) with Heupel and the success rate.

 

[Endeavor.]

Always take the points on the road early. You might need them later.

especially when you see your defense getting shredded two weeks in a row.
giving away easy points like teams haven't been driving down the field in the second half of all these games.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

especially when you see your defense getting shredded two weeks in a row.
giving away easy points like teams haven't been driving down the field in the second half of all these games.

UCF turned it over at the Memphis 4. Memphis drove 52 yards on the ensuing drive to UCF 44 before punting. If UCF kicks a field goal and Memphis starts at the 25 then they are kicking a 40 yard field goal after driving 52 yards. The more you know.

 

[Endeavor.]

UCF turned it over at the Memphis 4. Memphis drove 52 yards on the ensuing drive to UCF 44 before punting. If UCF kicks a field goal and Memphis starts at the 25 then they are kicking a 40 yard field goal after driving 52 yards. The more you know.

Did the game end after that drive? I said second HALF, meaning until the clock runs out. Tulsa and Memphis made huge drives in the 4th quarter because wouldn't you know the game isn't over. But hey at least they punted that one time.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

Did the game end after that drive? I said second HALF, meaning until the clock runs out. Tulsa and Memphis made huge drives in the 4th quarter because wouldn't you know the game isn't over. But hey at least they punted that one time.

Huh? Kicking a field goal and then giving up a field goal is a net neutral outcome. Just like UCF going for it and failing and Memphis punting on the ensuing drive due to being backed up at their own 4.

 

[Endeavor.]

Huh? Kicking a field goal and then giving up a field goal is a net neutral outcome. Just like UCF going for it and failing and Memphis punting on the ensuing drive due to being backed up at their own 4.

or hear me out, scoring points is always good. maybe you stop them they don't get in field goal range. or next time you go for it and don't make and then they score. its not set in stone that they would have punted. if every drive was an automatic net neutral then there wouldn't be any comebacks against us since were always up by two scores and continue to blow it. take points when you can, especially on the road when calls late in game wont be going in your favor.

Now if our kicker is atrocious to where we cant count on him consistently in the red zone then what the heck are we doing in recruiting

 

[hemightbejeremy]

or hear me out, scoring points is always good. maybe you stop them they don't get in field goal range. or next time you go for it and don't make and then they score. its not set in stone that they would have punted. if every drive was an automatic net neutral then there wouldn't be any comebacks against us since were always up by two scores and continue to blow it. take points when you can, especially on the road when calls late in game wont be going in your favor.

Now if our kicker is atrocious to where we cant count on him consistently in the red zone then what the heck are we doing in recruiting

Scoring more points is better which is why we went for the play with the better expected point outcome.

 

[ucfjosh2000]

I would love to see how many times we have gone for a TD on 4th and goal (or worse) with Heupel and the success rate.

Based on some quick research, in 2018 we had about 8 similar situations, 4th and less than 5 yards inside the 25 yard line where we went for it. We got it 4 times and failed 4 times, so 50%. However, the 4 successful attempts were all with 1 yard to gain. The 4 failed attempts were from 3, 4, 1, and 2 yards.

I didn't look at all attempted 4th downs, only ones within makable FG territory. That year we attempted 13 FGs and made 11 of them.

So if you have 1 yard to go, there's an 80% chance of getting it. If you have 2+ yards to go, kick the easy FG and score a TD next drive. Of course, game situation comes into play too, where you might NEED the TD so are forced to go for it, but never in the first quarter.

I'll work on 2019 later...

 

[Knight Strength]

Based on some quick research, in 2018 we had about 8 similar situations, 4th and less than 5 yards inside the 25 yard line where we went for it. We got it 4 times and failed 4 times, so 50%. However, the 4 successful attempts were all with 1 yard to gain. The 4 failed attempts were from 3, 4, 1, and 2 yards.

I didn't look at all attempted 4th downs, only ones within makable FG territory. That year we attempted 13 FGs and made 11 of them.

So if you have 1 yard to go, there's an 80% chance of getting it. If you have 2+ yards to go, kick the easy FG and score a TD next drive. Of course, game situation comes into play too, where you might NEED the TD so are forced to go for it, but never in the first quarter.

I'll work on 2019 later...

Good research

 

[ElprofesorJuan]

The result of a game isnt what happens on one drive. It's all of the drives added up.

It's cumulative Decisions based on Coaching choices. Also includes Penalties. It's not being ready or making changes when needed...Memphis, Tulsa has always been close. A good coach will prepare and not leave it too chance. Especially with young unproven talent. All upsets are because of bad coaching.

 

[ucfjosh2000]

Based on some quick research, in 2018 we had about 8 similar situations, 4th and less than 5 yards inside the 25 yard line where we went for it. We got it 4 times and failed 4 times, so 50%. However, the 4 successful attempts were all with 1 yard to gain. The 4 failed attempts were from 3, 4, 1, and 2 yards.

I didn't look at all attempted 4th downs, only ones within makable FG territory. That year we attempted 13 FGs and made 11 of them.

So if you have 1 yard to go, there's an 80% chance of getting it. If you have 2+ yards to go, kick the easy FG and score a TD next drive. Of course, game situation comes into play too, where you might NEED the TD so are forced to go for it, but never in the first quarter.

I'll work on 2019 later...

I finished researching 2019. There were 9 similar situations, 4th and 6 yards or less inside the 26 yard line. We got it 6 times and failed 3 times. 4/6 successful attempts were from 1 or 2 yards to go. The other 2 successful attempts were from 4 and 6 yards to go. We were unsuccessful on attempts where we needed 1, 2, and 4 yards. So 66% success rate sounds good, but out of the 9 instances, the final result ended up in a TD only twice, a FG 3 times, and no points 4 times. So I would consider that 2/9 successful since the goal was to score a TD on all those drives.

We were 15/17 in FGs that season. All in all, I'm good with going for it on 4th and 1 since it's a 6/8 or 75% success rate inside the 26 yard line. 4th and 2+ inside the 25 yard line, I think we're better taking an easy 3 points and scoring a TD the next drive.

 

[mattropolis]

I finished researching 2019. There were 9 similar situations, 4th and 6 yards or less inside the 26 yard line. We got it 6 times and failed 3 times. 4/6 successful attempts were from 1 or 2 yards to go. The other 2 successful attempts were from 4 and 6 yards to go. We were unsuccessful on attempts where we needed 1, 2, and 4 yards. So 66% success rate sounds good, but out of the 9 instances, the final result ended up in a TD only twice, a FG 3 times, and no points 4 times. So I would consider that 2/9 successful since the goal was to score a TD on all those drives.

We were 15/17 in FGs that season. All in all, I'm good with going for it on 4th and 1 since it's a 6/8 or 75% success rate inside the 26 yard line. 4th and 2+ inside the 25 yard line, I think we're better taking an easy 3 points and scoring a TD the next drive.

Important factor. Were these at home or road games, and who were we playing. This makes as much difference as any stats or analytics. I'm not asking you to go find this. You did enough work already. Good stuff.

 

[diducfwin]

I support going for it in 4th down near the goal line...

If you have a 50% chance to get a TD, odds are you'll get 7 points every two drives.

If you have a 100% chance of making a FG, odds are you'll get 6 points every two drives. This would result in losing by more points in a game where Memphis stated they were going for it every 4th down and our defense didn't drop them a single time. Not once!

It's smart strategy to go for it in those 4th down situations. Of course playcalling and execution need to be solid.

Also worth noting that they kept going for the 2 point conversion that we couldn't stop as well.

I finished researching 2019. There were 9 similar situations, 4th and 6 yards or less inside the 26 yard line. We got it 6 times and failed 3 times. 4/6 successful attempts were from 1 or 2 yards to go. The other 2 successful attempts were from 4 and 6 yards to go. We were unsuccessful on attempts where we needed 1, 2, and 4 yards. So 66% success rate sounds good, but out of the 9 instances, the final result ended up in a TD only twice, a FG 3 times, and no points 4 times. So I would consider that 2/9 successful since the goal was to score a TD on all those drives.

We were 15/17 in FGs that season. All in all, I'm good with going for it on 4th and 1 since it's a 6/8 or 75% success rate inside the 26 yard line. 4th and 2+ inside the 25 yard line, I think we're better taking an easy 3 points and scoring a TD the next drive.

It takes 5 FG's to get more points than 2 TD's.

So really, you can look at it as 9 drives with points to 4.

When you factor in that a field goal is not a 100% guarantee there is literally no scenario where it makes sense to kick it outside of late game go ahead situation.
Everything else is Monday morning quarter backing.

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

I finished researching 2019. There were 9 similar situations, 4th and 6 yards or less inside the 26 yard line. We got it 6 times and failed 3 times. 4/6 successful attempts were from 1 or 2 yards to go. The other 2 successful attempts were from 4 and 6 yards to go. We were unsuccessful on attempts where we needed 1, 2, and 4 yards. So 66% success rate sounds good, but out of the 9 instances, the final result ended up in a TD only twice, a FG 3 times, and no points 4 times. So I would consider that 2/9 successful since the goal was to score a TD on all those drives.

We were 15/17 in FGs that season. All in all, I'm good with going for it on 4th and 1 since it's a 6/8 or 75% success rate inside the 26 yard line. 4th and 2+ inside the 25 yard line, I think we're better taking an easy 3 points and scoring a TD the next drive.

There are no easy 3 points this year. 66% kicker with a long of 33. That means LOS is 16 yard line. Better off going for it with 66% chance of TD and 2pt Conversion.

 

[ucfjosh2000]

There are no easy 3 points this year. 66% kicker with a long of 33. That means LOS is 16 yard line. Better off going for it with 66% chance of TD and 2pt Conversion.

You definitely have to take into account the type of kicker you have. But if you never kick field goals, and you have a kicker that is capable, I wouldn't feel great when it comes to a huge game and you absolutely need to make a 35 yard field goal. Let the kid get his practice in now to build confidence for that moment, cause you know it's coming.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

You definitely have to take into account the type of kicker you have. But if you never kick field goals, and you have a kicker that is capable, I wouldn't feel great when it comes to a huge game and you absolutely need to make a 35 yard field goal. Let the kid get his practice in now to build confidence for that moment, cause you know it's coming.

He missed an extra point and short field goal vs Tulane and a 21 yarder against Tulsa in non pressure moments in addition to the Memphis one. What sort of practice are you talking?

 

[Endeavor.]

No disrespect but how the heck do we have a kicker whose longest make is 33 yards and even that is shaky. Seriously is that even D1 level, high schoolers come out making 45 nowadays.

How does the coaching staff let it come to that, where if you're not on the SIXTEEN YARD LINE you will lose the game.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

No disrespect but how the heck do we have a kicker whose longest make is 33 yards and even that is shaky. Seriously is that even D1 level, high schoolers come out making 45 nowadays.

How does the coaching staff let it come to that, where if you're not on the SIXTEEN YARD LINE you will lose the game.

He has the leg just needs to dial in accuracy. Distance not really an issue as he has missed extra points and a 21 yarder.

 

[Knight Strength]

I thought Tulane was able to get close on a couple of the extra points. Maybe blocking could be better? Thoughts?

 

[ucfjosh2000]

We kicked a lot of field goals against Houston, keep it up coach.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

We kicked a lot of field goals against Houston, keep it up coach.

Gave him 3 confidence builders in order to miss a 29 yarder first drive of the second half.

 

[BH Knights 37]

Gave him 3 confidence builders in order to miss a 29 yarder first drive of the second half.

More importantly, those FG's kept us in the lead on the road. There are several reasons I feel kicking the FG in the 1st half against Memphis was the right call. But the biggest is having the lead is psychologically important, especially on the road.

 

[ElprofesorJuan]

More importantly, those FG's kept us in the lead on the road. There are several reasons I feel kicking the FG in the 1st half against Memphis was the right call. But the biggest is having the lead is psychologically important, especially on the road.

Definently