Trump 91-95% win probability
- Thread starter Crazyhole
- Start date
You don't need a model to realize a couple of long-standing truths about modern American politics:
- Voters get tired of the same party in control of the WH after 8 years. (exception: election following Reagan).
- Voters like their Presidents to serve 8 years. Unless the guy happens to be following a two-termer of the same party (Bush after Reagan) or the guy turns out to be incompetent (Carter, Trump).
80% Biden, 90% Trump, 97 % Clinton. Polls don't mean shit. I'll be watching Election night and honestly, I will be both surprised and not surprised regardless of how this turns out.
If trump wins - I'll be shocked given the outspoken nature of what seems like the masses being done with him. I'll also be not surprised if he lost because well, twitter.
Biden wins - I'll be surprised that many people turned out and want Obamacare and his other plans in action as well as Biden's shortcomings not being a deterrent. I also won't be surprised if he loses, because Biden is a bad candidate in his own right .
If trump wins - I'll be shocked given the outspoken nature of what seems like the masses being done with him. I'll also be not surprised if he lost because well, twitter.
Biden wins - I'll be surprised that many people turned out and want Obamacare and his other plans in action as well as Biden's shortcomings not being a deterrent. I also won't be surprised if he loses, because Biden is a bad candidate in his own right .
It boggles the mind that there are still people on this board who expect a Trump win while he's continuing with his batshit antics.
Yeah, Donald, tell the American people to ignore the pandemic. Their kids need to go back to school in the fall or else!!!!
Yeah, Donald, tell the American people to ignore the pandemic. Their kids need to go back to school in the fall or else!!!!
It boggles the mind that there are still people on this board who expect a Trump win while he's continuing with his batshit antics.
Yeah, Donald, tell the American people to ignore the pandemic. Their kids need to go back to school in the fall or else!!!!
Florida mandated It before he did. A few weeks ago FL and Ohio and some other states said First Week of August is the mandate.
What is the date of this? It says that disruptions due to coronavirus could change his forecast, so I assume this from a few months ago, since obviously there have been disruptions due to coronavirus now.
It doesnt really make sense to me then. It has a disclaimer about disruptions from coronavirus may change his forecast, so not sure how much more disruption they need to see. Plus, I dont really get the methodology. THey are using primary results, and because Trump won the New Hampshire primarily easily they say that favors Trump, but Trump didnt have any sort of significant opponent in the New Hampshire primary. Of course Biden was going to struggle more in primaries when he had a lot more competition.
That’s because most intelligent people don’t care about Twitter as much as youIt boggles the mind that there are still people on this board who expect a Trump win while he's continuing with his batshit antics.
Yeah, Donald, tell the American people to ignore the pandemic. Their kids need to go back to school in the fall or else!!!!
The school thing is actually quite popular. You don’t have kids in school, so you can’t relate
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It boggles the mind that there are still people on this board who expect a Trump win while he's continuing with his batshit antics.
Yeah, Donald, tell the American people to ignore the pandemic. Their kids need to go back to school in the fall or else!!!!
Not everyone is as delusional as you. See, most sane people can 1) take the pandemic seriously and 2) still advocate that it's a good idea to get kids back to school, based upon many studies on children well being and mental health.
Oh, it definitely could be. If the economic collapse really starts to take hold by October Trump could lose like Mondale did.
Conversely, if that doesn't happen, covid settles down, and trump doesn't go off the rails he could win big-time.
Biden has done literally nothing to create anything but skepticism so its entirely out of his hands. Best to just stay hidden and hope Trump or the economy collapse.
Again, most people want to see the schools physically reopen but the notion that schools can do it safely AND inexpensively seems pretty far-fetched at this point given the infection numbers we're seeing.
It's just another one of Trump's off-the-cuff comments intended to generate an applause line from his base. If it was serious, the Administration would have put some actual thought into it -- they haven't.
The Party that defunds public education accusing the other of not wanting their kids to attend school is going deep into the disingenuous bag of tricks
It boggles the mind that there are still people on this board who expect a Trump win while he's continuing with his batshit antics.
Yeah, Donald, tell the American people to ignore the pandemic. Their kids need to go back to school in the fall or else!!!!
Most Americans don't even read twitter.
This dumbshit Trump proclamation had nothing to do with twitter.
We spend the 5th most money per pupil in the world. Who is defunding education? Or is this just something you read on your Twitter echo chamber?
Do I really need to explain what State parties have done the most cuts to education ? You would think a UCF board would be even more aware of this
why does twitter bother you so much? it is the fastest platform to get links for sports or news
not everyone uses zerohedge or drudge*
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Because it’s from random posters that sometimes have absolutely no credibility. Anyone can scan the thousands of Twitter posts out there to find SOMETHING to fit their narrative. It’s definitely more valuable and reliable information when it comes to recruiting, sports, etc, but when it comes to politics, it’s basically like picking CNN vs Fox.
Yes there are opinions but so is Facebook for old people. It is still the best social media platform to get links to news stories in less time and I usually embed the tweets here or on the fan board bc it bypasses the paywall
Sure go ahead. And don’t just mindlessly throw top level numbers around, explain how performance is somehow linked to perceived “cuts” and then also explain what the magic top line number is to achieve said performance gains.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/dec/27/betsy-devos-trump-republicans-education-secretary
not going to get into State level drivel, maybe you can invite UCF Grad Anna that is in FL State's Government to come here and argue it w you. Republicans putting less emphasize on public education is not some hidden agenda, especially under Devos.
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Most Republicans that I know put plenty of emphasis on education and reinforce it at home. Did you ever consider that school choice is being expanded to charters and private schools because public schools have proven to be utter failures, even with tons of money thrown at them?
predictions right now are just dumb. 2020 is just plain crazy. no one knows whats going to happen in a week or two, let alone a couple months.
youd need to see evidence of the economy coming back strong. covid numbers going down. massive riots where portions of several cities are on fire while biden keeps promoting defund the police and having problems string 2 or 3 full sentences together.
I agree with Wayne on this one. However, the idea that Trump can somehow make a comeback in November from the deep hole he's dug for himself here in July is, quite frankly, impossible to imagine.
i dont think there is enough time to show the economy will roar back to life before the election. media will do their best to not cover it.
news would actually need to cover covid numbers truthfully. i dont think that will happen.
i know there are riots now. i mean even worse and in far more cities.
i think biden will attempt to avoid the debates at all cost.
Interesting data point to contrast the models predicting the opposite. I wonder how current it is as it also says Trump would have a 95% chance of winning over Bernie Sanders. Bernie Sanders dropped out 3 months ago. It would certainly buck trends for a president to not serve 2 terms. The incumbent always has a bit of advantage as they have a free platform to address the American public and usually can point to actual things they have accomplished.
...while the pandemic continues to be ignored? How's that been working out for the economy this summer?
That would require Trump to take it seriously. In his mind, it's already old news.
Massive riots with cities on fire? Biden supporting and promoting the defund the police movement? Bullshit to both of your fantasy scenarios.
