Trump leads Biden in a poll
- Thread starter Crazyhole
- Start date
Statistical anomaly. But a tightening race might mean more urgency for Biden voters.
Biden up 16 points in Minnesota. If anyone believes that BS, they are delusional.
Probably goes the same for both sides. The real question is with a tightening race, (RCP average down to +6 for Biden) how will it affect Bidens approach to the race. He can't just try to coast to victory anymore.
The margin of error in these polls is +- 2 or 3. And it’s bounded by a 95% CI. So 1 in 20 polls will have a result even outside the listed error margin. Thus a singular result significantly different from other polls would be expected relatively frequently. Especially with the sheer volume of polling results that are released each week. Trump can take the win though. He’s definitely in the conversation now.
I've been searching the interwebs for this poll that has Trump leading. Strangely, I can't find it.
But to be fair, the title of Crazy's thread is "Trump leads Biden in a poll" so he was likely referring to Nebraska.
But to be fair, the title of Crazy's thread is "Trump leads Biden in a poll" so he was likely referring to Nebraska.
I've been searching the interwebs for this poll that has Trump leading. Strangely, I can't find it.
But to be fair, the title of Crazy's thread is "Trump leads Biden in a poll" so he was likely referring to Nebraska.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden
Rasmussen? Now we know why you didn't link this article in the first place.RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - General Election: Trump vs. Bidenwww.realclearpolitics.com
Rasmussen. The only polls that show Trump within 4 points of Biden are Rasmussen. I don't think there are enough undecided voters to swing this election.
Funny that you were searching for it and couldn't find the one website that everybody goes to when looking for poll results.Rasmussen? Now we know why you didn't link this article in the first place.
But to be fair, our board's Trump supporters will tell you the debates will change EVERYTHING!
Anybody who watched Trump's ABC town hall last night saw a man who is at the top of his game. Poor Joe is doomed.
Who here wasn't blown away by Trump's "Herd mentality" observation?
So you've surrendered your access to information to Google?I'm not an interwebs expert. My searches start and end with Google.
I would rarely put the words consistent and Joe Biden in the same sentence but he's been steady over the past 6 months and the polls show it. The longer things stay this way, the harder it will be for Trump to change things up. Biden would have to have a health incident during the debates for things to change.
Recommend ignoring the polling and track the models. I think 538 is the most informative. Currently about 75/25 in favor of Biden. Note that on election day, their 2016 model was about 70/30, which gave Trump a much bigger chance than most forecasts.
Also keep in mind Trump's edge in the electoral college. A 2-3% lead for Biden in the popular vote could be a 50/50 election. This is why the models like 538 are useful because they incorporate state-by-state polling and demographic data to forecast different possible outcomes.
Another note - Biden's polling edge is better than the 75/25 odds they currently have because of how much time we still have until election day. If his current leads hold Biden's odds will increase as we approach election day.
Also keep in mind Trump's edge in the electoral college. A 2-3% lead for Biden in the popular vote could be a 50/50 election. This is why the models like 538 are useful because they incorporate state-by-state polling and demographic data to forecast different possible outcomes.
Another note - Biden's polling edge is better than the 75/25 odds they currently have because of how much time we still have until election day. If his current leads hold Biden's odds will increase as we approach election day.
Outlier poll, toss that out. Our Florida state polls are even more erratic. On Monday Trump had a 4% lead with Latinos in the start, Tuesday Biden had a 26% lead with Latinos. I don't care about the %, but the trends over 8 weeks or so. Both candidates have been at 48-51% and 42-45% respectively for the past 6 months. I expect 140-150M votes to be cast in this election. 2008 had 130M, 2012 had 125M, 2016 had 127M. Trump needs that number below 130M to win.
Funny. I don't follow polling but my shower thought this morning was around whether Rep's are actually hoping for low turnout and if so, how unreasonable would it be to assume they actively do things to keep the # low. The reverse is also true for the other side. It's only logical for this to be the case if the data is clear with regard to how turnout impacts elections.
Yup. High voter turnout benefits democrats because people who tend to vote democrat tend to vote at lower rates. Inverse for Republican.
Unless you have unusually high expectations for political operatives, you should assume active efforts at voter suppression from the right. It has to be subtle though and have good pretense so it's politically palatable. But you have to be pretty naive not to see it.
If we are to list out the politically palatable efforts, what would the list look like? For both sides.
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Someone who doesn’t wear a diaper would be a nice place to start...
I have a feeling that there will "conveniently" be riots in swing cities the night before the election.
If we are going to elect an old person I'd rather have the one that is going to be old while surrounded with competent experienced executive branch employees and not a who's who of qanon message boards
There is no such thing as a swing city. There are swing states that are a mix of population centers that vote Democrat and rural areas that vote Republican.
Didnt rasmussen literally nail the 2016 election back when you were calling it an “outlier”? Yes
Rasmussen's final 2016 poll was nearly spot on for the popular vote - but there were plenty of others right there also - it was hardly an outlier at the time.
But Rasmussen has had trouble since then. In 2018 their final generic ballot poll heading into the mid-terms had Republicans up +1, and it ended up Democrats +9 - so they missed that by 10 pts, which I believe was the worst performance of any major polling firm.
Rasmussen was in fact closest to the pin for the popular vote in 2016. All but 2 polls were within 2 points of the actual result.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein
They were more than 8 points off in the midterms. The worst performing poll. There methods skew toward a R bias. Which benefited them in 2016 when Trump outperformed polls due to some silent support. In 2018 they doubled down on their methods and it didn’t work.
RealClearPolitics - Election Other - 2018 Generic Congressional Vote
RealClearPolitics - Election Other - 2018 Generic Congressional Vote
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Point is, theyre as accurate as other pollsters that said trump was down double digits on election night. This time, trump is at 95% approval versus 86% with republicans and his approval with blacks is up from 15-24% and he is outperforming 2016 with hispanics. Add in a brain dead candidate and a silent majority that doesnt answer polls and you have a landslide.Rasmussen was in fact closest to the pin for the popular vote in 2016. All but 2 polls were within 2 points of the actual result.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein
They were more than 8 points off in the midterms. The worst performing poll. There methods skew toward a R bias. Which benefited them in 2016 when Trump outperformed polls due to some silent support. In 2018 they doubled down on their methods and it didn’t work.
Rasmussen has erred on the R side vs actual results in every election since 2010 including midterms. Their September 20, 2016 (similar time from election) was Trump+5, so Biden is actually polling 4 points better than Clinton was with them at a similar time.RealClearPolitics - Election Other - 2018 Generic Congressional Vote
RealClearPolitics - Election Other - 2018 Generic Congressional Vote
trump may lose a state or two that cheat by mail but he will win minnesota, NH, and Nevada and maybe even colorado this time out
Part of the problem with polling outlets is that they base likely voters on turnout in the last election. Everybody knows that midterm elections typically lean towards the party that doesn't hold the white house. They all have their own metrics on how they calculate this but none are good predictors of who will actually go vote.
Good insight. Didnt realize that was the metric used to qualify a likely voter. We know trump saw a record turnout in 2016 of folks who never voted and those people sat out in 2018. Now add in never trumpers who are making their way back into the fold and increasing support among minorities....
Doesnt hurt that somehow someway shook chicken and his unemployed friends somehow nominated someone worse than HRC
I dont know how to say this without being attacked, but I do believe that the bump in approval among African Americans and Latinos is probably legit, but i doubt it shows up in any meaningful way at the ballot box. The Rasmussen national poll is probably off by 3 or 4 points but still closer to being accurate than the ones that have biden up 9. Emerson had them within the margin of error and that's probably where we really stand today, or at least until a few hours ago.
RBG dying will probably have a bigger effect in states like California and Connecticut than it does in places like Minnesota or Florida, so IMO we will probably see a national surge in favor of Biden but not one that affects how the EC ends up.
