Trumpgate: new projections call for ~150k deaths by August

Discussion in 'The Water Cooler' started by fried-chicken, Mar 20, 2020.

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Is Covid-19 worse than the flu?

  1. Yes

    88.9%
  2. No, im an idiot

    11.1%
  1. fried-chicken

    fried-chicken Golden Knight
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    The flu kills about 40,000 people per year. That's 109 per day.

    Deaths per day:
    3/17 - 23
    3/18 - 40
    3/19 - 56
    3/20 - 49
    3/21 - 46
    3/22 - 113
    3/23 - 141
    3/24 - 225
    3/25 - 247
    3/26 - 268
    3/27 - 400
    3/28 - 525
    3/29 - 363
    3/30 - 573
    3/31 - 912
    4/1 - 1049
    4/2 - 969
    4/3 - 1309
    4/4 - 1331
    4/5 - 1165
    4/6 - 1255
    4/7 - 1966
    4/8 - 1943
    4/9 - 1901
    4/10 - 2035
    4/11 - 1830
    4/12 - 1528
    4/13 - 1535
    4/14 - 2405
    4/15 - 2783
    4/16 - 2175
    4/17 - 2616
    4/18 - 1867
    4/19 - 1561
    4/20 - 1939
    4/21 - 2806
    4/22 - 2341
    4/23 - 2358
    4/24 - 1959
    4/25 - 2065
    4/26 - 1157
    4/27 - 1384
    4/28 - 2470
    4/29 - 2390
    4/30 - 2201
    5/1 - 1897
    5/2 - 1691
    5/3 - 1153
    5/4 - 1324
    5/5 - 2350
    5/6 - 2558
    5/7 - 2119
    5/8 - 1687
    5/9 - 1422
    5/10 - 750
    5/11 - 1008
    5/12 - 1630
    5/13 - 1772


    Let's look back to the idiots who downplayed the actions that we need to take. Their acceptance of our half assed response has allowed politicians the cover they need to not close beaches and wait too long to take action on countless other things. If the country was united in demanding extreme action we would look more like South Korea and less like Italy.

    Here are the chuds:




     
    1 fried-chicken, Mar 20, 2020
    Last edited: May 13, 2020
  2. KnighttimeJoe

    KnighttimeJoe Diamond Knight
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    Up your ass, chicken. If you couldn't tell that that was sarcasm, then you're fukcing dumber than you look.
     
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  3. KNIGHTTIME^

    KNIGHTTIME^ Golden Knight
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    I'm a positive person. Not ready to toss in the towel. ;)
     
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  4. Ucfmikes

    Ucfmikes Diamond Knight
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    Where are my posts?
     
  5. KnighttimeJoe

    KnighttimeJoe Diamond Knight
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    LOL. Out of all the shit you and some others have said, he selects these.
     
  6. Crazyhole

    Crazyhole Golden Knight
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    Look at the title of this thread. Its not as bad as the flu, death counts are just over half of the flu.

    How is this thread even a thing?
     
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  7. NinjaKnight

    NinjaKnight Todd's Tiki Bar
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    Way better posts to chose from than in the OP. 2/10 I expect more from you FC. I'm not mad, I'm just disappointed.
     
  8. firm_bizzle

    firm_bizzle Diamond Knight
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    You guys have so much TDS.
     
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  9. fried-chicken

    fried-chicken Golden Knight
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    It's a work in progress. I just searched for flu.
     
  10. fried-chicken

    fried-chicken Golden Knight
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    It's a working thread. I'll be updating as we get new information. Just wanted to get it started. I have big plans for this thread.
     
  11. hemightbejeremy

    hemightbejeremy Golden Knight
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    We are 60 days in from likely patient 0 arriving in the US. With an R0 value of 2.0-2.2 we are looking at between 65k and 300k infected are this point in the US. In 32 more days we will be looking at likely at least 17 million infected.
     
  12. Crazyhole

    Crazyhole Golden Knight
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    Seems like you jumped the gun. Hashtag premature ejaculation. Hashtag 1 in 5 men suffer from it.
     
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  13. KNIGHTTIME^

    KNIGHTTIME^ Golden Knight
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    17 million infected in the United States? No way
     
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  14. Knight_Classes_begin_7pm

    Knight_Classes_begin_7pm Golden Knight
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    [jumpingsmile][jumpingsmile][jumpingsmile][jumpingsmile]:):):)
     
  15. KnighttimeJoe

    KnighttimeJoe Diamond Knight
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  16. KNIGHTTIME^

    KNIGHTTIME^ Golden Knight
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    The flu numbers are going to be down since everyone is inside and focusing on hygiene. I also don't get the point of the thread showing the flu deaths are higher. People should be dropping like flies according to some
     
  17. fried-chicken

    fried-chicken Golden Knight
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    Bookmark
     
  18. hemightbejeremy

    hemightbejeremy Golden Knight
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    Uncontrolled, yes, undoubtedly. However with social distancing we can somewhat mitigate this number.
     
  19. hemightbejeremy

    hemightbejeremy Golden Knight
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    Based on 250 deaths in the US right now it means 8-12 days ago there were likely 27k infections in the US (using the 0.9% fatality rate). Meaning R0 is closer to 2.2 than 2.0 and the number infected is probably on the higher end of the range I stated.
     
  20. KNIGHTTIME^

    KNIGHTTIME^ Golden Knight
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    So you're backtracking which is fine. Just wanted to be clear you didn't think 17 million people would be infected in the United States.
     
  21. hemightbejeremy

    hemightbejeremy Golden Knight
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    Yes 17 million will be infected in the US. Given the number of deaths we are seeing now, we are up to 2 weeks removed from 25k+ infected which means an R0 of close to 2.2. Nobody on earth has immunity. Isolation will only work for as long as we implement it (unlikely to last until a vaccine is ready).
     
  22. Ucfmikes

    Ucfmikes Diamond Knight
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    Well. I never said that this wasn’t a big deal or another Flu, so such a post won’t be found
     
  23. KnighttimeJoe

    KnighttimeJoe Diamond Knight
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    Maybe, whatevs. I know I have FAR BETTER THINGS TO DO than scour the Cooler for posts a la twat chicken.
     
  24. fried-chicken

    fried-chicken Golden Knight
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    And yet, here you are.
     
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  25. hemightbejeremy

    hemightbejeremy Golden Knight
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    To put into perspective. Flu has an R0 of around 1.2 and an estimated 19-74 million (depending on the season) are infected yearly. 17 million is less than 5% of the US population. It’s early. 8 NBA teams have tested with 10 positives (about 7.5%).
     
  26. KnighttimeJoe

    KnighttimeJoe Diamond Knight
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    And yet, I'M STILL NOT SCOURING THE COOLER FOR WHAT PEOPLE HAVE SAID, you stupid fetus.
     
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  27. UCFKnight85

    UCFKnight85 GOL's Inner Circle
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    This stupid shit said I down played it and yet amazingly he couldn’t find a stupid pathetic quote to put in here from me. You know he tried.
     
  28. fried-chicken

    fried-chicken Golden Knight
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    Are you feeling left out?
     
  29. fried-chicken

    fried-chicken Golden Knight
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    You're right, I was wrong to forget about you.


     
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  30. UCFKnight85

    UCFKnight85 GOL's Inner Circle
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    lol dude if this is the best you got then your stupid little thread is going to die a worse death than all of the other supremely dumbass threads you’ve made over the last 4 years
     
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  31. hemightbejeremy

    hemightbejeremy Golden Knight
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    I found one from January.


    Buuuuuuurn*
     
  32. Ucfmikes

    Ucfmikes Diamond Knight
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    Get a life.
     
  33. fried-chicken

    fried-chicken Golden Knight
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    You did say it was going to be gone in 2 months a little under a month ago.
     
  34. fried-chicken

    fried-chicken Golden Knight
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    112 died yesterday so we went from 55% to 103% of the average daily flu deaths in one weekend.

    The virus is already more deadly than the flu. Anyone think we've reached the peak yet? Anyone still downplaying the severity?
     
  35. DaShuckster

    DaShuckster Golden Knight
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    The severity? Sigh...yet ANOTHER "TDS" poster!!!

    My President told us weeks ago that his Administration has this thing under control. We locked down the borders thanks in large part to his 'unprecedented' travel ban -- that MANY argued against -- that has kept us from experiencing a major outbreak like you saw in China, South Korea, or Italy.
     
  36. Boosted87

    Boosted87 Bronze Knight
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    We have a really hard time grasping exponential growth, even when you understand it conceptually.

    With exponential growth, going from case 1 to 1,000 takes the same amount of time as going from case 1,000 to 1 million, which is the same time as going from 1 million to 1 billion. Of course, with mitigation you slow the transmission rate, and it slows itself as the number of potential hosts decreases. But that's the growth model. Sitting today at ~350k cases worldwide is almost 2/3 of the way (calendar time) to 1 billion cases from case 0.

    We are at 40k confirmed cases in the US today. Assuming you seeded the entire outbreak with 1 case (which we didn't), it would take 16 doublings to hit 32k cases. 17 million cases happens at doubling #25. When you look at it that way, 40k cases is closer (in time) to 17m than it is your first case.
     
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  37. Ucfmikes

    Ucfmikes Diamond Knight
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  38. Ucfmikes

    Ucfmikes Diamond Knight
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    You’re not listening to “Dr Fucti” again. Shame on you. I see that your TDS is growing exponentially
     
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  39. Boosted87

    Boosted87 Bronze Knight
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    Why do you hate math so much?
     
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  40. NinjaKnight

    NinjaKnight Todd's Tiki Bar
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    These cultists hate anything based in facts and reality.
     
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