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UCF football schedule 2017. What is everyone thinking?

C

Central Floridave

Todd's Tiki Bar
Aug 21, 2001
24,765
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Aug 31 Thursday vs FIU
Sep 9 Saturday vs Memphis
Sep 16 Saturday vs Georgia Tech
Sep 23 Saturday at Maryland
Sep 30 Saturday vs Maine
Oct 7 Saturday at Cincinnati
Oct 14 Saturday vs ECU
Oct 21 Saturday at Navy
Nov 4 Saturday at SMU
Nov 11 Saturday vs UCONN
Nov 18 Saturday at Temple
Nov 24 Friday vs USF
 
Central Floridave said:
Aug 31 Thursday vs FIU
Sep 9 Saturday vs Memphis
Sep 16 Saturday vs Georgia Tech
Sep 23 Saturday at Maryland
Sep 30 Saturday vs Maine
Oct 7 Saturday at Cincinnati
Oct 14 Saturday vs ECU
Oct 21 Saturday at Navy
Nov 4 Saturday at SMU
Nov 11 Saturday vs UCONN
Nov 18 Saturday at Temple
Nov 24 Friday vs USF
Click to expand...


If we can make it through those 3 games in bold, we can make a run for a serious bowl game. We need at least 2-1 in that stretch or else we risk losing momentum before we ever get some which can be bad for a season.
 
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Aug 31 Thursday vs FIU Win
Sep 9 Saturday vs Memphis Toss up
Sep 16 Saturday vs Georgia Tech Toss up
Sep 23 Saturday at Maryland Toss up
Sep 30 Saturday vs Maine Win
Oct 7 Saturday at Cincinnati Win
Oct 14 Saturday vs ECU Win
Oct 21 Saturday at Navy Toss up
Nov 4 Saturday at SMU Win but supposedly SMU better
Nov 11 Saturday vs UCONN Win
Nov 18 Saturday at Temple Win but tough
Nov 24 Friday vs USF Win (history repeats itself and ruins Charlie Strong's better team)

So that is 8-4 for my guess with the 'toss ups' as losses. So, yes, win one of those toss ups, or two and we looking pretty good...Disclaimer: Black-n-Gold glasses on very tight this time of year. Opinion may change after FIU game.
 
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Opponent tidbits:

FIU:
FIU football picked to finish sixth out of seven teams in Conference USA’s East Division. New coach, new scheme. so question marks with how fast he can rebuild FIU. We beat them good last year.

Memphis:
Predicted to win West side of conference. New coach, but lots of returning players. "coming off an 8-5 season, will return nine offensive starters from a unit that ranked at or near the top of the conference in several statistical categories last year. The Tigers will return three first-team all-conference players (linebacker Genard Avery, kick returner Tony Pollard and punter Spencer Smith) and arguably the most explosive quarterback-wide receiver tandem in the league in seniors Riley Ferguson and Anthony Miller."

Georgia Tech:
Todd Stansbury returns to Bright---er---Spectrum Stadium. Quick Read on articles they have experience defense and skill players. No QB though, yet. Big question mark. But, usually pretty good.

Maryland:
Tough OT loss last year. UCF looking for revenge. Probably evenly matched teams this year. @maryland. So toss up.

Maine:
Div2A or something like that. don't expect to lose.

Cinci:
down this year, new coach, not reading anything good on them this year.

ECU:
Always a tough game. Not really following them too much. But, we will see. I think a win.

Navy:
Toss up. At least we will have the GaTech game to figure out the triple option. Should be interesting. They were pretty good last year but got tons of injuries and lost final 3 games.

SMU:
I'm expecting win. But, read something somewhere that they have improved since last year.

UCONN:
uh, yeah, win.

Temple:
last year's conference champs. New coach, lost some players. So marking it as a win but tough.

USF:
I'm just not buying that duh*bulls will be good this year. New coach is a lot more conservative than previously and will slow them down. Plus, their top notch RB is gone. I suspect Quinton Flowers will be injured some time before black friday trying to do everything and impress the heisman voters (LOL, not). I actually think they struggle and lose their first game @sanjosestate and Lovie Smith's Illinois return to tampa stadium and they beat them. But, will be interesting. I'm torn between wanting them to be undefeated going into black friday and the opposite and having them suck eggs prior. I'd enjoy both since I think UCF wins this one regardless.
 
Softest schedule in years, but we still won't be favored in 5 games. The eastern division will again be one of the lower ranked in the G5. The West in the AAC is the class of the conference, but it won't be as good as last year.
 
Miltonian said:
If we can make it through those 3 games in bold, we can make a run for a serious bowl game. We need at least 2-1 in that stretch or else we risk losing momentum before we ever get some which can be bad for a season.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I agree...those 3 are key! For years, a good indicator for us is how we play our first game. The years we almost lost to Div I-AA teams we usually had a bad season. IMHO if we go out and put a whoopin on FIU....not a bad measure. FIU is not going to roll over. They're coming in for an upset and to prove something with Butch Davis.
 
These type of years I say ask me at the end of September. We should win FIU and Maine.
We could lose to Memphis and still beat everybody in our division. Next year if we're still progressing I believe will be a 9 to 11 win year.

This year 7 or 8 wins is positive progress (especially considering LB and DB changes).
 
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UCFProf said:
The eastern division will again be one of the lower ranked in the G5.
Click to expand...

I'm sorry, but there is simply no justification for this statement whatsoever. Based on last years results and projections for this year (based on returning players)...

  • No team in the Sun Belt or CUSA is better than USF or Temple, and UCF will likely be better than any team in those conferences as well.
  • USF will be better than any team out of the MAC. In the MAC East only one team finished with a winning record last year and in the MAC West only three teams did.
  • In the MWC, only Boise St and San Diego State could challenge the top 2 AAC East teams, and the MWC Mountain Division (5 of their 6 teams finished with winning records last year) is the only G5 division that could claim superiority over the AAC East.
 
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Central Floridave said:
Opponent tidbits:

FIU:
FIU football picked to finish sixth out of seven teams in Conference USA’s East Division. New coach, new scheme. so question marks with how fast he can rebuild FIU. We beat them good last year.

Memphis:
Predicted to win West side of conference. New coach, but lots of returning players. "coming off an 8-5 season, will return nine offensive starters from a unit that ranked at or near the top of the conference in several statistical categories last year. The Tigers will return three first-team all-conference players (linebacker Genard Avery, kick returner Tony Pollard and punter Spencer Smith) and arguably the most explosive quarterback-wide receiver tandem in the league in seniors Riley Ferguson and Anthony Miller."

Georgia Tech:
Todd Stansbury returns to Bright---er---Spectrum Stadium. Quick Read on articles they have experience defense and skill players. No QB though, yet. Big question mark. But, usually pretty good.

Maryland:
Tough OT loss last year. UCF looking for revenge. Probably evenly matched teams this year. @maryland. So toss up.

Maine:
Div2A or something like that. don't expect to lose.

Cinci:
down this year, new coach, not reading anything good on them this year.

ECU:
Always a tough game. Not really following them too much. But, we will see. I think a win.

Navy:
Toss up. At least we will have the GaTech game to figure out the triple option. Should be interesting. They were pretty good last year but got tons of injuries and lost final 3 games.

SMU:
I'm expecting win. But, read something somewhere that they have improved since last year.

UCONN:
uh, yeah, win.

Temple:
last year's conference champs. New coach, lost some players. So marking it as a win but tough.

USF:
I'm just not buying that duh*bulls will be good this year. New coach is a lot more conservative than previously and will slow them down. Plus, their top notch RB is gone. I suspect Quinton Flowers will be injured some time before black friday trying to do everything and impress the heisman voters (LOL, not). I actually think they struggle and lose their first game @sanjosestate and Lovie Smith's Illinois return to tampa stadium and they beat them. But, will be interesting. I'm torn between wanting them to be undefeated going into black friday and the opposite and having them suck eggs prior. I'd enjoy both since I think UCF wins this one regardless.
Click to expand...
With all due respect, USF is not losing to Illinois AND San Jose St who is terrible.
 
"USF is not losing to Illinois AND San Jose St who is terrible."

Never underestimate a team with unknowns like San Jose State. New coaching staff, but they sucked last year however returning 17 players. Plus, the hype of duh*bulls and their first game travelling to California is an unknown.

Also, never underestimate an NFL caliber coach returning to the stadium where he got fired. Yes, Illinois sucked last year, but it is year 2 of Lovie Smith.

I'm just going on that and hoping duh*bulls suck an egg. But, again, if they go undefeated and highly ranked into Black Friday would be a bonus also. I'm not convinced they will be as good as they were last year. New coach Charlie Strong and not being familiar with things and he needs to learn that duh*bulls suck and always have a late season melt down. He will learn the term #genshafted soon enough.... LOL@Duh*Bulls.... carry on....
 
Central Floridave said:
"USF is not losing to Illinois AND San Jose St who is terrible."

Never underestimate a team with unknowns like San Jose State. New coaching staff, but they sucked last year however returning 17 players. Plus, the hype of duh*bulls and their first game travelling to California is an unknown.

Also, never underestimate an NFL caliber coach returning to the stadium where he got fired. Yes, Illinois sucked last year, but it is year 2 of Lovie Smith.

I'm just going on that and hoping duh*bulls suck an egg. But, again, if they go undefeated and highly ranked into Black Friday would be a bonus also. I'm not convinced they will be as good as they were last year. New coach Charlie Strong and not being familiar with things and he needs to learn that duh*bulls suck and always have a late season melt down. He will learn the term #genshafted soon enough.... LOL@Duh*Bulls.... carry on....
Click to expand...
Helps our SOS and RPI if teams in conference win OOC games. Getting them ranked helps our claim of P6 also. We want them to lose to us and no one else. Unless you enjoy G5 status.
 
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Way too early because of QB questions, will the defense be the same after losing so many players, will the offense take big strides in year two and what is going on with all the changes our opponents are facing themselves.

7 or 8 would be a nice step forward. 9 would be a HUGE step forward. 6 wouldn't necessarily be a step back either considering how big of a leap forward year 1 was.
 
Miltonian said:
If we can make it through those 3 games in bold, we can make a run for a serious bowl game. We need at least 2-1 in that stretch or else we risk losing momentum before we ever get some which can be bad for a season.
Click to expand...
We will be 4-1, or at least 3-2 in our first 5. Either way, we are on our way to an 8 or 9 win season.

We do have a fighting chance to take down USF, and no, that's not really related so much to offensive play. The USF game will come down to defensive performance and whether we can contain Flowers.
 
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Poolside Knight said:
it's hard to project with uncertainty at QB
Click to expand...
PK, I agree with you that QB is an important factor at any projection. However, I feel we have less uncertainty at QB that we had starting out last year. This year we know how MM can perform at the college level. He put us in a place to win against UH, Temple and MD. All indicators are that he has improved his mechanics noticeably, as well as his body mass, since last season. Of course, his confidence and decision making should mature.

Also, our back up options are QB are solid. I am comfortable with DiNovo having to come in on an emergency basis early on in the season. Later in the season, Mack should have learned the system well enough to come in for relief. Mack may even be good enough to compete early in the season. He is a true dual threat and MM should still not be overlooked as a major playmaking threat. Vedral may not play this year but he will push all of the others with his multi threat ability.

In evaluating projected QB play, as important to the QB skill level is the quality of his supporting cast. We are vastly improved at RB with a big back who plays at the level of Cordarrian. No longer do we have to rely on a 200 lb back to try to get that hard 2 or 3 yards on short yardage plays. Also, Manny and Marlon give us 2 more playmakers who can make any QB look better.

Next, our D is even more stout with all returning linemen returning and the LBs even faster and bigger than last year. Adding Burgess Becker, Moore & Grant to our secondary, which already includes the experience of Neal, Gibson and Causey, will show speed and ball skills that we will all welcome once we see them in action. Many are understandably concerned about losing a number of guys on D but there can be no improvement without change.
 
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KnightLife1 said:
PK, I agree with you that QB is an important factor at any projection. However, I feel we have less uncertainty at QB that we had starting out last year. This year we know how MM can perform at the college level. He put us in a place to win against UH, Temple and MD. All indicators are that he has improved his mechanics noticeably, as well as his body mass, since last season. Of course, his confidence and decision making should mature.

Also, our back up options are QB are solid. I am comfortable with DiNovo having to come in on an emergency basis early on in the season. Later in the season, Mack should have learned the system well enough to come in for relief. Mack may even be good enough to compete early in the season. He is a true dual threat and MM should still not be overlooked as a major playmaking threat. Vedral may not play this year but he will push all of the others with his multi threat ability.

In evaluating projected QB play, as important to the QB skill level is the quality of his supporting cast. We are vastly improved at RB with a big back who plays at the level of Cordarrian. No longer do we have to rely on a 200 lb back to try to get that hard 2 or 3 yards on short yardage plays. Also, Manny and Marlon give us 2 more playmakers who can make any QB look better.

Next, our D is even more stout with all returning linemen returning and the LBs even faster and bigger than last year. Adding Burgess Becker, Moore & Grant to our secondary, which already includes the experience of Neal, Gibson and Causey, will show speed and ball skills that we will all welcome once we see them in action. Many are understandably concerned about losing a number of guys on D but there can be no improvement without change.
Click to expand...
Admire your optimism, but you have left no room for error. Everything that you have mentioned is an absolutely perfect scenario. In reality things never go that way more often than not.
 
If we go 3-2 in the first 5 games, and lose only to USF and Navy, then beat everyone else, or beat one of them and lose 1 more the rest of the way, then that's 8-4. That would be a very good scenario. Vegas has us at 7.5 wins.

SMU and Temple on the road are not automatic wins.
 
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Mikesi said:
I will bet you any amount of money that we don't go 4-1 and 9-3. Where do I sign? Basically you're saying we win 2 out of 3 vs Memphis, GT, and Maryland, and only lose 2 the rest of the way. Only after going 4-1.
Click to expand...
And what do you feel about 8-4, which I also said is possible
Mikesi said:
Admire your optimism, but you have left no room for error. Everything that you have mentioned is an absolutely perfect scenario. In reality things never go that way more often than not.
Click to expand...
This response is not a football analysis, but more a statement of whether pessimism tends to be more accurate than optimism, then calls it reality. No response needed to that.

My assessment is neither optimism or pessimism. It is a football/roster based analysis. I have set forth my reasons in football terms. I stick by them.

Note: I did leave room for error, I stated we will lose 3 or 4 games. Obviously, that indicates "error" in 25-33% of our contests.
 
KnightLife1 said:
And what do you feel about 8-4, which I also said is possible

This response is not a football analysis, but more a statement of whether pessimism tends to be more accurate than optimism, then calls it reality. No response needed to that.

My assessment is neither optimism or pessimism. It is a football/roster based analysis. I have set forth my reasons in football terms. I stick by them.

Note: I did leave room for error, I stated we will lose 3 or 4 games. Obviously, that indicates "error" in 25-33% of our contests.
Click to expand...
8-4 is a possibility. You said 9, so that's mostly what I'm disputing. Would you put money on winning 9 games? Whether you're a gambler or not, if you would not then you don't truly believe it. If you don't buy that argument, then who do you think that our 9 wins will be against?. I heard the same 8-9 wins before last year and we won 6. This year, I'll go with Vegas, which is very often spot on

You can stand by your assessment all you want, but after reading it, it's a best case scenario. It's based on players who mostly have never even played or barely have. Read it.

Milton took Maryland and Temple by surprise last year. In addition, Mack has never played in a college football game or practice. Memphis, GT and Maryland would eat him alive. He's not a consideration to relieve anyone early if we plan on winning. Let's bet on 9 wins.
 
Mikesi said:
8-4 is a possibility. You said 9, so that's mostly what I'm disputing. Would you put money on winning 9 games? Whether you're a gambler or not, if you would not then you don't truly believe it. If you don't buy that argument, then who do you think that our 9 wins will be against?. I heard the same 8-9 wins before last year and we won 6. This year, I'll go with Vegas, which is very often spot on

You can stand by your assessment all you want, but after reading it, it's a best case scenario. It's based on players who mostly have never even played or barely have. Read it.

Milton took Maryland and Temple by surprise last year. In addition, Mack has never played in a college football game or practice. Memphis, GT and Maryland would eat him alive. He's not a consideration to relieve anyone early if we plan on winning. Let's bet on 9 wins.
Click to expand...
I gave a range of 8 or 9 wins. You seem fixated on the 9 that I stated. You gave a wider, I have no idea range of 5-8 wins. I will bet you we win more than 5, since that was part of your range.
 
Square Knight said:
I'm sorry, but there is simply no justification for this statement whatsoever. Based on last years results and projections for this year (based on returning players)...
Click to expand...
Square Knight said:
  • No team in the Sun Belt or CUSA is better than USF or Temple, and UCF will likely be better than any team in those conferences as well.
  • USF will be better than any team out of the MAC. In the MAC East only one team finished with a winning record last year and in the MAC West only three teams did.
  • In the MWC, only Boise St and San Diego State could challenge the top 2 AAC East teams, and the MWC Mountain Division (5 of their 6 teams finished with winning records last year) is the only G5 division that could claim superiority over the AAC East.
Click to expand...
Why cherry pick? Nobody is denying that USF will be good. Nor that the AAC West is the best of the non-P5. Nor that we'll easily run through the rest of the AAC East. For the past two years, the AAC East was overall (even with USF) ranked much worse than the AAC West; so much worse that it's near below the average among G5. Last year, the AAC East had 3 worthless teams ranked near the very bottom of the FBS. This year Temple is projected to be much worse (lost their coach, weak recruiting, QB graduated):
Rank American Athletic Conf All Index SOS Rk SOS
West Division
29 Navy 7-2 9-5 29.77 45 54.25
35 Houston 5-3 9-4 26.46 105 51.07
41 Tulsa 6-2 10-3 22.61 134 49.40
50 Memphis 5-3 8-5 21.05 89 51.88
up.gif
73 SMU 3-5 5-7 18.78 35 54.81
down.gif
100 Tulane 1-7 4-8 17.23 71 52.78
East Division
21 South Florida 7-1 11-2 34.15 143 48.93
23 Temple 8-1 10-4 32.63 122 49.93
up.gif
74 UCF 4-4 6-7 18.77 95 51.47
up.gif
102 Cincinnati 1-7 4-8 17.08 73 52.57
up.gif
116 East Carolina 1-7 3-9 15.99 76 52.51
up.gif
127 Connecticut 1-7 3-9 15.37 116 50.21
http://realtimerpi.com/college_football/ncaaf_aac_Men.html
 
KnightLife1 said:
I gave a range of 8 or 9 wins. You seem fixated on the 9 that I stated. You gave a wider, I have no idea range of 5-8 wins. I will bet you we win more than 5, since that was part of your range.
Click to expand...
Backtracking a little on the 9?? That's cool

You're absolutely correct on the no idea part. No one truly does. I stated that as an educated guess that we win
5-8 with 90% certainty before a bowl

Will we win 5 or 9??? That's a good bet actually. You're on. Although it will very likely be neither. Let's revisit this.
 
Mikesi said:
Backtracking a little on the 9?? That's cool

You're absolutely correct on the no idea part. No one truly does. I stated that as an educated guess that we win
5-8 with 90% certainty before a bowl

Will we win 5 or 9??? That's a good bet actually. You're on. Although it will very likely be neither. Let's revisit this.
Click to expand...
Not really backtracking, just making a point about how you tried to corner me at 9 wins. I said 8-9 wins. I am saying 9 is best case. 8 is highly likely. I feel 7 is actually our worst case scenario this year but that it is unlikely we only win 7. 8 or more is most likely. We have improved in several areas over last year, despite the new faces.
 
Mikesi said:
Backtracking a little on the 9?? That's cool

You're absolutely correct on the no idea part. No one truly does. I stated that as an educated guess that we win
5-8 with 90% certainty before a bowl

Will we win 5 or 9??? That's a good bet actually. You're on. Although it will very likely be neither. Let's revisit this.
Click to expand...
If you will be there, let's meet and explore this further on game day, before the FIU game. Or even the August 19 Fan Fest if you like...
 
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KnightLife1 said:
If you will be there, let's meet and explore this further on game day, before the FIU game. Or even the August 19 Fan Fest if you like...
Click to expand...
Sounds good! This may be my first Fan Fest ever, because I'm off and want to check out the new stadium upgrades and my seats. Just received the e-mail from UCF athletics. Unfortunately, as of now I'll be struggling to get to the game on time vs FIU.
 
Mikesi said:
Sounds good! This may be my first Fan Fest ever, because I'm off and want to check out the new stadium upgrades and my seats. Just received the e-mail from UCF athletics. Unfortunately, as of now I'll be struggling to get to the game on time vs FIU.
Click to expand...
Would love to meet you, as in the final analysis, we share the same support for the Knights. As for a friendly wager, that's cool if it happens... But the key word for me is friendly.
 
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