Slim to no chance. UCF has far, far better odds, even if they are bad, they are not that bad (4 orders of magnitude)!
No. That would still be bad. I will not accept a 2-10 (2-6 AAC) record. Key should be fired if that's the result, no questions asked ... demoted at best. It means he utterly failed, even late.
Moderate, 'rebuilding,' success would be 4-8 (4-4 AAC) record ... 0.500 in conference after the early woes. That would mean GoL gets 2016 to have a winning season, even if it isn't a 10 win or conference title game appearance. Key would probably keep his job, through the first few games of 2016, as the young, injury-plagued roster did show just enough improvement.
If we go 2-10 (2-6 AAC) to 0-12 (0-8 AAC), it means GoL is "on notice." It means if we look like we're going to have another losing season in 2016 early on, he could be canned by game 6, if not game 5 or even 4, depending on the scores and results.
It would mean the GoL program has failed if those are the results ... which is in stark contrast to UCF at any time, other than when GoL first came in with an extremely depleted roster. You cannot declare they will be before they are, but no, 2-10 or worse is pretty bad. The FCS loss has pretty much sealed that, unless we go 4-4 in-conference.
But GoL won't be going anywhere until mid 2016 at the earliest. I don't care what program you're in, that's what happens.