UCF is joining the Big 12, as early as next week.
I know that's not breaking news. We pretty much learned as much late Thursday morning when the Athletic broke the story about the plan to add UCF, Cincinnati, Houston and BYU, then Chuck Carlton of the Dallas Morning-News chimed in with confirmation. As the day unfolded, multiple Houston sources also stated as much and it was revealed Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby was actually visiting UH on Thursday. Brett McMurphy also had confirmation and further details in a story posted early Friday.
With the Boise State game obviously occupying everybody's attention Thursday afternoon/night and into Friday morning, I've just now had the chance to circle back to a few UCF sources to get a few more tidbits.
While everybody always seemed confident UCF would be included in such an expansion scenario, it does seem the acceleration of the Big 12's plan caught national media off guard. We knew the Big 12 had to do something, but I'm not sure people predicted invitations would come this quickly. There was a Big 12 presidents meeting the week before, and it seems they gave the green light to the ADs to move forward on the best plan available.
Accelerating this process, more than anything else, has been the revelation that the other Power Five conferences are not expanding - which means no landing spots for the Big 12 leftovers. The PAC-12 and Big Ten recently stated they explored the idea of adding teams, but didn't see value at this time. The SEC and ACC haven't made any public statements, but if there was no value for the PAC/B1G, there's no value for the SEC/ACC either. Things can change down the line, but there is a belief these moves will end Power Five expansion at least for a while.
I've heard UCF has been involved in informal discussions with the Big 12 for at least the past couple weeks, so Thursday's expansion plan wasn't exactly a surprise to the powers that be. They knew it was coming.
It's actually progressed further than reported. There has already been talk about entry date and revenue sharing.
Right now, the plan is for UCF to join in time for the 2023 season. The Texas/Oklahoma situation is fluid. Some believe they'd be gone by then, and others still believe the Big 12 would try to keep them in the league through 2024. It does appear there is confidence they'll remain in the Big 12 at least through 2022. Again, fluid.
As it currently stands, Big 12 schools make around $37M per year in revenue sharing, which includes the TV deal, playoff, bowl games, NCAA Tournament credits, etc. The Big 12 is set to get a windfall from UT/OU in terms of buyout money, but obviously how much remains TBD.
When UCF joins in 2023, they would play two full seasons under the existing Big 12 TV deal which is a shared ESPN/Fox contract. While this is still being negotiated, there is chatter the new additions would receive in the upper teens in revenue - perhaps $18-19M range - during that two-year span.
TV revenue beginning in 2025-26 would fall under a new media rights contract, which will begin negotiations in 2023. How much can a new Big 12 without Texas/OU generate and what media partners will step up to the plate to bid? That's really the biggest question mark here.
Internally, UCF is preparing for action next week. It is believed the official invites will happen either Tuesday or early Wednesday. The Big 12 presidents apparently have a conference call on Monday to authorize the plan. Schools are already planning for Wednesday press conference events.
The AAC schools have begun the process of taking necessary steps to declare their withdrawal, figure out what the buyout will be, etc. UConn declared exit from the AAC in summer 2019, which was to be effective for 2020, and they agreed to pay $17M to leave early. AAC bylaws require a 27-month notice and $10M exit fee. 27 months from now is December 2023, so unclear how that process will play out.
A few more tidbits:
-I'm not sure which politician(s) is involved, but it's been said there's at least one very upset member of the Florida state legislature who is livid University of South Florida is not part of this plan, and wants to demand UCF "lobby for their inclusion" or something to that effect. UCF obviously doesn't have any say in the matter. I don't see how Florida state politics could gain any relevant traction to impede this process.
-When UCF joins the Big 12 in 2023, I've heard they would likely maintain the nine-game conference schedule. UCF's 2023 schedule has plenty of work to do though as they only have the return trip to Boise State (Sept. 9) and a home game with BYU on the slate. Obviously, BYU now would be a conference game. So they'd need at least one more game, assuming there's always the possibility of a guarantee game (FCS, UConn, MAC type).
As a current independent, BYU joining a conference would create a lot of openings across college football, so UCF would have some options.
-It's too soon to know about the future of the War on I-4. South Florida has fairly full schedules for the next few years.
Cliff's:
-All signs point toward UCF being officially invited to the Big 12 next week. It appears like it will be official early in the week, Tuesday or Wednesday.
-UCF has known where this train was headed for at least the past couple weeks.
-The talk right now is joining for 2023 and it's at the point certain revenue numbers are being discussed.
I know that's not breaking news. We pretty much learned as much late Thursday morning when the Athletic broke the story about the plan to add UCF, Cincinnati, Houston and BYU, then Chuck Carlton of the Dallas Morning-News chimed in with confirmation. As the day unfolded, multiple Houston sources also stated as much and it was revealed Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby was actually visiting UH on Thursday. Brett McMurphy also had confirmation and further details in a story posted early Friday.
With the Boise State game obviously occupying everybody's attention Thursday afternoon/night and into Friday morning, I've just now had the chance to circle back to a few UCF sources to get a few more tidbits.
While everybody always seemed confident UCF would be included in such an expansion scenario, it does seem the acceleration of the Big 12's plan caught national media off guard. We knew the Big 12 had to do something, but I'm not sure people predicted invitations would come this quickly. There was a Big 12 presidents meeting the week before, and it seems they gave the green light to the ADs to move forward on the best plan available.
Accelerating this process, more than anything else, has been the revelation that the other Power Five conferences are not expanding - which means no landing spots for the Big 12 leftovers. The PAC-12 and Big Ten recently stated they explored the idea of adding teams, but didn't see value at this time. The SEC and ACC haven't made any public statements, but if there was no value for the PAC/B1G, there's no value for the SEC/ACC either. Things can change down the line, but there is a belief these moves will end Power Five expansion at least for a while.
I've heard UCF has been involved in informal discussions with the Big 12 for at least the past couple weeks, so Thursday's expansion plan wasn't exactly a surprise to the powers that be. They knew it was coming.
It's actually progressed further than reported. There has already been talk about entry date and revenue sharing.
Right now, the plan is for UCF to join in time for the 2023 season. The Texas/Oklahoma situation is fluid. Some believe they'd be gone by then, and others still believe the Big 12 would try to keep them in the league through 2024. It does appear there is confidence they'll remain in the Big 12 at least through 2022. Again, fluid.
As it currently stands, Big 12 schools make around $37M per year in revenue sharing, which includes the TV deal, playoff, bowl games, NCAA Tournament credits, etc. The Big 12 is set to get a windfall from UT/OU in terms of buyout money, but obviously how much remains TBD.
When UCF joins in 2023, they would play two full seasons under the existing Big 12 TV deal which is a shared ESPN/Fox contract. While this is still being negotiated, there is chatter the new additions would receive in the upper teens in revenue - perhaps $18-19M range - during that two-year span.
TV revenue beginning in 2025-26 would fall under a new media rights contract, which will begin negotiations in 2023. How much can a new Big 12 without Texas/OU generate and what media partners will step up to the plate to bid? That's really the biggest question mark here.
Internally, UCF is preparing for action next week. It is believed the official invites will happen either Tuesday or early Wednesday. The Big 12 presidents apparently have a conference call on Monday to authorize the plan. Schools are already planning for Wednesday press conference events.
The AAC schools have begun the process of taking necessary steps to declare their withdrawal, figure out what the buyout will be, etc. UConn declared exit from the AAC in summer 2019, which was to be effective for 2020, and they agreed to pay $17M to leave early. AAC bylaws require a 27-month notice and $10M exit fee. 27 months from now is December 2023, so unclear how that process will play out.
A few more tidbits:
-I'm not sure which politician(s) is involved, but it's been said there's at least one very upset member of the Florida state legislature who is livid University of South Florida is not part of this plan, and wants to demand UCF "lobby for their inclusion" or something to that effect. UCF obviously doesn't have any say in the matter. I don't see how Florida state politics could gain any relevant traction to impede this process.
-When UCF joins the Big 12 in 2023, I've heard they would likely maintain the nine-game conference schedule. UCF's 2023 schedule has plenty of work to do though as they only have the return trip to Boise State (Sept. 9) and a home game with BYU on the slate. Obviously, BYU now would be a conference game. So they'd need at least one more game, assuming there's always the possibility of a guarantee game (FCS, UConn, MAC type).
As a current independent, BYU joining a conference would create a lot of openings across college football, so UCF would have some options.
-It's too soon to know about the future of the War on I-4. South Florida has fairly full schedules for the next few years.
Cliff's:
-All signs point toward UCF being officially invited to the Big 12 next week. It appears like it will be official early in the week, Tuesday or Wednesday.
-UCF has known where this train was headed for at least the past couple weeks.
-The talk right now is joining for 2023 and it's at the point certain revenue numbers are being discussed.
