Voodoo economics

[Crazyhole]

April numbers sucked because Easter was in March.

 

[goodknightfl]

I think she laid the easter egg herself.

 

[Crazyhole]

I know from personal experience that I couldn't get a job in April because Easter was in March this year. Plus, something esoteric about vaccines and 6 weeks, whatever bullshit she said.

Murica!

 

[hemightbejeremy]

hate to break up the circle jerk but...

The reference week was April 12. Not everyone could get a vaccine yet for the reference period. It also contained the Easter weekend because Easter was early this year so the April report doesn’t always contain it (2020 Easter was on 4/12, 2019 it was 4/21, 2022 it will be 4/17) so comparatively speaking there is one additional holiday weekend vs a normal year.

 

[Crazyhole]

hate to break up the circle jerk but...

The reference week was April 12. Not everyone could get a vaccine yet for the reference period. It also contained the Easter weekend because Easter was early this year so the April report doesn’t always contain it (2020 Easter was on 4/12, 2019 it was 4/21, 2022 it will be 4/17) so comparatively speaking there is one additional holiday weekend vs a normal year.

And that has what to do with job growth?

 

[hemightbejeremy]

And that has what to do with job growth?

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, yes.

 

[Crazyhole]

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, yes.

I guess I don't understand. Does Easter have something to do with job gains or losses? If so, why?

 

[hemightbejeremy]

I guess I don't understand. Does Easter have something to do with job gains or losses? If so, why?

Yes. For seasonally adjusted unemployment rate. What she was indicating was the seasonality factor for April doesn’t factor in an Easter holiday since Easter generally falls in the following month. She probably shouldn’t have gone into the weeds as much else some chuds might try dragging her on Twitter.

 

[Crazyhole]

Yes. For seasonally adjusted unemployment rate. What she was indicating was the seasonality factor for April doesn’t factor in an Easter holiday since Easter generally falls in the following month. She probably shouldn’t have gone into the weeds as much else some chuds might try dragging her on Twitter.

So does that mean March was higher than usual because of the early holiday?

 

[hemightbejeremy]

So does that mean March was higher than usual because of the early holiday?

I’m not sure about all of that and exactly what factors they use, but the US added more than a million jobs and the non-adjusted unemployment rate fell from 6.2% in March to 5.7% in April. I think what she was trying to explain (and did it poorly) was that the “rise” in the adjusted rate was due to factors like the Easter holiday. But it is a bit voodoo of how they come up with the adjustments. This page shows the raw unadjusted employment numbers.

United States: Nonfarm employment and labor force data, not seasonally adjusted : Mid–Atlantic Information Office : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

www.bls.gov

 

[Crazyhole]

I’m not sure about all of that and exactly what factors they use, but the US added more than a million jobs and the non-adjusted unemployment rate fell from 6.2% in March to 5.7% in April. I think what she was trying to explain (and did it poorly) was that the “rise” in the adjusted rate was due to factors like the Easter holiday. But it is a bit voodoo of how they come up with the adjustments. This page shows the raw unadjusted employment numbers.

United States: Nonfarm employment and labor force data, not seasonally adjusted : Mid–Atlantic Information Office : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

www.bls.gov

Interesting. This makes me curious about how and why things are reported the way that they are. Everything we've heard indicated that unemployment went up last month, but these numbers show it went down. I wonder where the disconnect is.

 

[Knight In TN]

2/10 - would not bang