We go 5-7
- Thread starter SADUCFKNIGHT
- Start date
Very possible with toughest games at the end of season.
likely wins - Tulane and Cincinnati
Toss up - Tulsa
Tough games - USF and Houston
likely wins - Tulane and Cincinnati
Toss up - Tulsa
Tough games - USF and Houston
I would move Cincinnati down to the Toss Up or even the though game column now that Gunner Keil has reclaimed his starting role as QB.
Agreed, but you could also move USF and maybe even Houston into Toss Up after seeing their performances against Temple and SMU.
Tulsa might actually be the toughest game left on our schedule. They've only lost to ranked teams
I think that is true.
I see all the remaining games as winnable. There is not a game left that requires a miracle performance or a dramatic collapse by the other team. I could see us winning all of them. I could also see us losing all of them. That said, only one more win would be considered a failure.
Why we're good to have at least 2 wins:
If we beat Tulane, then only need to win 1 of 4 games. At an average 3-1 odds against us for winning each game, the chance of losing all four is only 32%. If ave. probability in each game is only 2-1 against, overall chance shrinks to 20%. So if we have a 75% chance of beating Tulane, a clear majority of the time, UCF finishes at least 2-3.
If we beat Tulane, then only need to win 1 of 4 games. At an average 3-1 odds against us for winning each game, the chance of losing all four is only 32%. If ave. probability in each game is only 2-1 against, overall chance shrinks to 20%. So if we have a 75% chance of beating Tulane, a clear majority of the time, UCF finishes at least 2-3.
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