It's clear that there's a lot of chatter on this topic. I didn't go to the DT huddle but have heard rumor of some rather ambitious quotes from good ole Stansbury and GOL. I'm a current student and am desperate to know your opinions about whether we'll be in big time football by the time I graduate. (Rising sophomore)
What are the true odds we end up in the Big 12?
- Thread starter RogerUCF
- Start date
IF the Big 12 is serious about expanding, I would say that we have about a 75% chance of being in the Big 12. If that happens before you graduate, not sure. I think the Big 12 is about 2-3 years away from expansion. If they get snubbed again this year with a 1 loss champion, then they will probably expand. If they get into the playoff this year, all bets are off. If they expand, rumors are they are looking east- as told to the big 12 by tv broadcast partners (which rules out BYU and Boise State). Look at the competition, Cincy ( a lock) Tulane, Memphis, Uconn, East Carolina, and USF.
USF- really?
UConn- if this was about basketball, yes.
Memphis- the only team I fear, because they are closer to the rest of the league and they tie Cincy and WVU back to the rest of the league- hoops yes, football, as long as Fuente stays
Tulane- also closer to the rest of the league. Nice market, but if this was the NFL draft, 6th round selection, not to be taken in the 2nd or 3rd round- smaller market and less fertile recruiting grounds
East Carolina- smaller market than UCF, not as good recruiting grounds, similar (at best) football success, closer to WVU- helps WVU with travel.
Cincinnati- "The Lock should the Big 12 expand"- equal to us in football ( roughly so on the national perception, maybe they are a little ahead of us), basketball- please don't even bother. TV market- 34th, largest of anybody not named UCF or USF that is a candidate. Recruiting grounds- Ohio is pretty good. Also, a very good travel partner for WVU.
USF- really?
UConn- if this was about basketball, yes.
Memphis- the only team I fear, because they are closer to the rest of the league and they tie Cincy and WVU back to the rest of the league- hoops yes, football, as long as Fuente stays
Tulane- also closer to the rest of the league. Nice market, but if this was the NFL draft, 6th round selection, not to be taken in the 2nd or 3rd round- smaller market and less fertile recruiting grounds
East Carolina- smaller market than UCF, not as good recruiting grounds, similar (at best) football success, closer to WVU- helps WVU with travel.
Cincinnati- "The Lock should the Big 12 expand"- equal to us in football ( roughly so on the national perception, maybe they are a little ahead of us), basketball- please don't even bother. TV market- 34th, largest of anybody not named UCF or USF that is a candidate. Recruiting grounds- Ohio is pretty good. Also, a very good travel partner for WVU.
I was going to post an old article last week about why Big almost 12 wouldn't expand, but felt it was beating a dead horse. But, for you, here's what it said (the author's opinion- it was in an Utah BYU newspaper). Conferences have Tier 1, 2 and 3 games. The 1s and 2s go to the big boy networks, and the 3s are the one's the conference can sell to other places. That is where conferences get their extra money in addition to their ESPN or whoever contract. That is the only reason the Big 10 wanted Rutgers, because now they could force the cable channels in the New York area to carry the Big 10 network. They get $1 per month per subscriber, and when New York opened- they gained big $$. The network pulled in an extra $7+ million per team last year (whatever year that article was talking about). The Big 12, because of Texas, can't sell their Tier 3 games for much at all, because there is no Big 12 network. So, if they add teams, each team loses millions because they have to share the same 1 contract. No reason to expand.
So, if anyone knows differenth than this article, please correct. But, unless they can find away to create a market for the Tier 3 games, unless they can re-work their TV contract, unless the universities decide to not be that greedy, then it looks like they're more than willing to be least of the P5, no matter how many times W. Virgina leaks about expansion.
So, if anyone knows differenth than this article, please correct. But, unless they can find away to create a market for the Tier 3 games, unless they can re-work their TV contract, unless the universities decide to not be that greedy, then it looks like they're more than willing to be least of the P5, no matter how many times W. Virgina leaks about expansion.
I'll break down some percentages/timelines:
Will the Big 12 add at least 2 more teams by 2018? 60% yes (they are finally beginning to lookat all possibilities with their members and TV Partners...hope they expand)
If the Big 12 adds just 2 teams by 2018, %60 chance UCF is one of those 2 teams
Will the Big 12 add at least 4 members by 2020? 35%
If Big 12 adds at least 4 members, chance UCF is one of those 4? 95%
Bottom line...competition is fierce....UCF is not a shoe-in...and Big 12 has to hopefully decide TO expand...because if they don't, UCF will remain in the AAC...which is still the best conf for football/basketball that UCF has ever been in.
Agree the B12 is not ready to expand today. The fact the expansion committee is active means nothing other than they are keeping abreast of their options.
How can they make $$ work. actually is not that hard. champ game likely makes 25 to 30 mil, you only pay the 2 new comer teams 10 to 11 mil each for the first 5 to 10 years. and conf actually makes money day one. At 10 mil per year new teams will feel like they are in high cotton, compared to now.
I tend to agree #1 is Cincy, If they look at today only, any one of 4 or 5 schools could be #2. If they look where those schools likely will be in 15 to 20 years, UCF is the school of choice.
How can they make $$ work. actually is not that hard. champ game likely makes 25 to 30 mil, you only pay the 2 new comer teams 10 to 11 mil each for the first 5 to 10 years. and conf actually makes money day one. At 10 mil per year new teams will feel like they are in high cotton, compared to now.
I tend to agree #1 is Cincy, If they look at today only, any one of 4 or 5 schools could be #2. If they look where those schools likely will be in 15 to 20 years, UCF is the school of choice.
FYI...you and your classmates can have a HUGE impact on helping UCF land a P5 invite...and that's to get as many classmates of yours to attend EVERY FOOTBALL and BASKETBALL game you can as the spotlight is now on UCF, but the spotlight (Big 12 attention) will be on other schools as well.
Help fill the stadium, help fill the arena...as students today at UCF can be one of the main reasons why UCF ends up with a P5 invite...so please do whatever you can...get as many people from your social circles (frats, clubs, dorms, apartments, etc...) and stress the importance of attending games is bigger now than ever.
PS. Oh...going to games are a blast too...something I learned a long, long time ago...when UCF was playing Div II Football and playing basketball in the Education Gym....its called PRIDE...nothing better than seeing your school playing right in front of you.
Another reason to attend as many games as possible as students...because for many, your first job out of college will be outside Orlando, even outside of FLA...so chances are you will never live as close to UCF's campus as you do now for a long, long time...so take this great opportunity and attend as many games as you can.
Very much agree. I had the luxury of being an undergrad at UCF during 2010-2014 where we ended up winning a bunch of tittles, including the fiesta bowl. Even the first few games I attended in 2011 or 2012 were a blast even though there wasn't such a large attendance for those games. The student section is awesome. And pro tip, just bring in a bunch of nips (little alcohol bottles) with you, security's a joke.
I think the Orlando TV Market is the big selling point, along with visiting Orlando, the UCF winning way, and the student enrollment. The Orlando TV market will only improve with time.
could you imagine the facility projects that would get the immediate green light with that extra tv money
Enjoying UCF games with fellow students is the most fun I had while attending UCF. Enjoy it and try to get a group of friends to go as much as you can. It's a blast!
I'm a glass is half full guy....99% we will be in the big 12 soon. If the Big 12 expands, Florida is a key market to grab. I'm sure that fiesta bowl helps too beating the big 12 champ. We are not going to be denied.
It would (greatly) open Florida recruiting.
It is just only a matter of time.
Y'all Knights are ALWAYS welcome to our conference!
It is just only a matter of time.
Y'all Knights are ALWAYS welcome to our conference!
The bolded part isn't true. WVU sold their T3 rights for 8 million per year just two years ago.
http://www.smokingmusket.com/2013/1/24/3911844/wvu-tier-3-rights-img-west-virginia
Last edited:
Good to know, but that unfortunately means 0 for the conference. So, even if UCF could sell theirs for the same (can't) it would be 0 for the conference. The point of the article was that there's no BIg 12 network so adding areas to make Tier 3 money means nothing to the conference. It's great for individual teams but nothing for the whole. Adding UCF gives W. Virginia 0 Tier 3 dollars.
There is no doubt the Long horn network hurts the B12. It is bad for the league and maybe even Texas long term. A B12 network would have been an easier sell than the Long Horn. Hell even if you had to give Texas a double or Triple share to get it going, It still may have been better.
I still don't expect B12 to add teams for another couple of years, Long term I think they will have to add. But it makes sense to get a couple more years under the belt with new TV deal first.
I still don't expect B12 to add teams for another couple of years, Long term I think they will have to add. But it makes sense to get a couple more years under the belt with new TV deal first.
Let's say some of the rumors are true and Texas plans to join the PAC-12. Could they hang on to the Longhorn Network? I doubt it. I've wondered if they might go the independent route, but what would they do with their non-football sports? I don't think the Longhorns would accept putting their non-football sports into a G5 conference, and do they really want to increase travel for their basketball, baseball, and other sports teams by leaving for another conference and making football independent? I don't see them getting the kind of deal that Notre Dame has with the ACC, and they certainly would not want a deal like what BYU has with the West Coast Conference.
I think the Longhorn Network should become the Big 12 network and the conference's revenue should be split more evenly (at least, as close to "even" as possible). I think, long-term, that's the best option Texas has.
I think turning the LHN into a Big 12 network would be ideal but I don't think its necessary right now. I hope that option would be seriously considered for the good of the conference around the time our TV contract is set to expire.
As for UCF getting in the Big 12 I agree they are one of the first four choices, that being said I just don't see any expansion happening until our tv contracts are getting ready to expire. Same for other P5 conferences.
As for UCF getting in the Big 12 I agree they are one of the first four choices, that being said I just don't see any expansion happening until our tv contracts are getting ready to expire. Same for other P5 conferences.
Pretty much this. No one has any idea what the odds are, or when/if they'll expand at all. The only thing you can really say with any certainty is that UCF will get a thorough looking at if they ever broach the topic, and we are a part of a short list.
Texas fan here,
First, I've seen a couple of folks say "Make the LHN the Big12 Network" so here's the deal with that. Every school in the Big12 voted to share 1st and 2nd tier monies among each other equally. ESPN is in control of the LHN, it's not like Texas can just say "we're switching this over". Oklahoma and Kansas have also launched their own sports networks (Sooner Sports and Jayhawk TV) LHN is through ESPN, Sooner Sports is through FOX. So just that right there already presents a huge issue.
Second, I have zero issue with UCF in the Big12. I think yall along with Cincinnati would be great for the conference in that the league would have schools residing in 3 of the 5 best states for recruits (TX, FL, OH) only missing (CA, and GA). I share the same sentiment as others have said, if you really want UCF to make it to the big time. Watch every game, go to every game you can, basically be a UCF super fan. If the stadium is full and the TV rating are good, I think the call will be made and the trigger on UCF to the Big 12 will be pulled. It's a bit of a unique situation for yall in that you kind of have power to make it happen.
Third, the completely wrong thing to do is to come into this conference and start complaining and griping about things being unfair or schools are being greedy. This conference would no longer exist if it wasn't for the big dogs. Everybody seems to be getting along well, other than a few gripes from WVU about travel.
First, I've seen a couple of folks say "Make the LHN the Big12 Network" so here's the deal with that. Every school in the Big12 voted to share 1st and 2nd tier monies among each other equally. ESPN is in control of the LHN, it's not like Texas can just say "we're switching this over". Oklahoma and Kansas have also launched their own sports networks (Sooner Sports and Jayhawk TV) LHN is through ESPN, Sooner Sports is through FOX. So just that right there already presents a huge issue.
Second, I have zero issue with UCF in the Big12. I think yall along with Cincinnati would be great for the conference in that the league would have schools residing in 3 of the 5 best states for recruits (TX, FL, OH) only missing (CA, and GA). I share the same sentiment as others have said, if you really want UCF to make it to the big time. Watch every game, go to every game you can, basically be a UCF super fan. If the stadium is full and the TV rating are good, I think the call will be made and the trigger on UCF to the Big 12 will be pulled. It's a bit of a unique situation for yall in that you kind of have power to make it happen.
Third, the completely wrong thing to do is to come into this conference and start complaining and griping about things being unfair or schools are being greedy. This conference would no longer exist if it wasn't for the big dogs. Everybody seems to be getting along well, other than a few gripes from WVU about travel.
I don't see how UCF ever makes it into a power 5 conference. The big 12 will either A) collapse B) Expand to 12 or C) Stay as is. The best UCF can hope for is the collapse of the Big 12 would leave 2-4 remaining members to join the AAC.
It would exist but nowhere near the present form. I would assume that losing Texas and Oklahoma is like gutting 70% of the value. Basically the 2 schools that can stand with anyone in the country in terms of national elite status. If I was Texas I would expect a deal.
I think UCF can add value for the record. Big 12 needs a presence in the very important state of Florida. #19 TV market and #2 school in enrollment. The Big 12 should invite both UCF and USF and really control the center of the state with a booming population. USF needs to get their stuff together though.
