As we approach UCF preseason camp, here's a look at the first of several topics that will define UCF's inaugural year in the Big 12.
John Rhys Plumlee is the lynchpin that will determine UCF's ceiling in their first Big 12 season.
At least nationally, the consensus expectation is UCF will be a middle of the pack team. The Knights were predicted to finish No. 8 among 14 schools in the Big 12's preseason poll. All in all, not too bad of a placement for a school transitioning to the Power Five level.
But UCF's aspirations are much higher.
I listened to Phil Steele on 365 Sports last Friday and he was talking about the parity - and uncertainty - when it comes to projecting the Big 12. A season ago, Baylor was the preseason darling while TCU was buried in the bottom half of the preseason poll at No. 7.
We all know what happened - TCU blew through those expectations and advanced to the Playoff, beating Michigan before losing to Georgia in the National Championship Game. And then there's Kansas State, the team that beat TCU in the Big 12 Championship Game. They were the preseason No. 5 team.
Phil Steele is predicting Texas and Oklahoma as his top two Big 12 teams, but stressed he could make a case for Baylor, TCU, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and UCF to win the Big 12. Yes, UCF.
"I could make the case for about 10 teams winning this thing," Steele said.
365 Sports host Paul Catalina asked about UCF, wondering if Steele's opinion had to do with UCF having the best coach (Gus Malzahn) and quarterback (JRP) combination.
"And overall experience too," Steele said. "We can't forget about that. They're actually No. 9 on my experience chart. When I talked to Coach Malzahn, he said he's been preparing for the move to the Big 12 for two years now. He's been recruiting like they're moving to the Big 12. I really like the talent they have. They practically have the whole unit back from last year.
"Last year they lost a couple games. Remember they went into Tulane and won. I thought they controlled that game. Without John Rhys Plumlee, they struggled against Tulane in the AAC title game or else they would have won it. Plumlee is back. They're got a better backup this year in Timmy McClain who comes in from South Florida. If any of those four newcomers are going to acutally contend in the Big 12 this year, UCF is your team."
Steele may have simplified the situation a little bit. As we all know, the quarterback position was a polarizing one for the entire season. Nearly everybody had a side - were you Team JRP or Team Mikey?
JRP was named the starting quarterback coming out of preseason camp, a move that even surprised players on the team who felt Mikey earned it. Gus Malzahn framed his decision delicately - explaining, basically, that he felt JRP had the skill set with the higher upside.
So UCF rolled with JRP and he did reasonably well, all things considered. Take into account 2022 was really his first season as a full-time starting quarterback. His last significant game action - as a quarterback - was all the way back in 2019 when he was a true freshman at Ole Miss. He was a wide receiver in 2021.
JRP's final stat line: 63 percent completion rate, 2,586 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, eight interceptions.
Stats don't tell the whole story though. JRP's passes were almost exclusively short passes. When he did try to go deep (or intermediate), the accuracy was not always there. Also, JRP's pocket awareness. Scanning the field and identifying open receivers. His running ability is unmatched as a quarterback. He can elude a rush and make plays with his legs, no doubt. But was he too quick to tuck the ball and run? And was he too reliant on that aspect of his game, opening himself to unnecessary injury?
We all saw how fearless JRP can be - multiple examples of putting his body on the line. The leap (flip?) for the touchdown at FAU is a breathtaking highlight.
But also dangerous. It caught up to him in the Cincinnati game when he suffered a concussion, taking on a hit as he attempted to gain a first down.
All important teaching moments for a player, depending how you look at it, that was still a "young" quarterback.
That being said, many are expecting Plumlee to take a big step forward in 2023. First and foremost, this is his team. There is no longer a quarterback controversy.
And he's receiving excellent coaching from offensive coordinator Darin Hinshaw. As a former UCF quarterback himself, Hinshaw is regarded as an upgrade when it comes to development. The spring/summer objectives were clear: Clean up JRP's mechanics/footwork, improve the intermediate/deep route game and impart his knowledge of the position. Make JRP more than a one-read QB.
If those objectives are met - and JRP stays healthy - he will be the key for UCF to be more than just competitive in the Big 12.
Don't get me wrong - there are other important keys too. Overall team health. The defense, particularly the linebackers, etc.
But if UCF is going to be in the hunt for a Big 12 Championship, JRP's evolution as a quarterback will be the reason.
