2016 First home game attendance prediction

[SPTKnight]

I know it is too soon for this, but... Is it a guaranteed sell out?

I feel like it has too be: new coach, new offense, etc. In essence this is a completely new product on the field other the the players.

If this game doesn't sell out then marketing

 

[firm_bizzle]

55,000

 

[cocoabeachjason]

34,555

 

[Stormthecourt?]

55,000

Overflow seating in the arena showing the game on big screens.
58,000

 

[Poolside Knight]

if the game stays on a Saturday a Sellout.

 

[Passenger57]

If this buzz keeps up, the Spring game is going to be 45,000.

 

[firm_bizzle]

I'm gonna need tickets to practice.

 

[jtGoldenKnights]

if the game stays on a Saturday a Sellout.

I'm with you on this!! Not Thursday at 6!! If its a night game on a Saturday we should be in the 40k

 

[muckdawg24]

Spring game should actually be fun but South Carolina State? 40K

 

[Renegade2007]

if the game stays on a Saturday a Sellout.

Ditto here. Gotta be a classic Saturday late afternoon type game. Should sell out.

 

[Once a Knight...]

I think we fans that are up on the team and knowledgeable about the coaching/style/roster moves will go to the game. That said, the vast majority of fans regardless of coach have just spent a whole season watching a pathetic 0-12 team get blown out in half of their games. With that being fresh on their minds, regardless of coach, they won't want to show up (did you see the attendance the last 3 home games? Yes I know Thurs night rain vs ECU and Thanksgiving vs USF was a factor). Obviously it's a new season, but many "fair-weather fans" have been turned away, and until this 13 game losing streak is over, none of them will show up. Our first home game next yr is against SC State (FCS). That doesn't generate any excitement from the general fan base, to turn out to see an FCS team (many fans still having nightmares about Furman). That said, I'd expect an announced attendance of 30-35k, with actual butts in seats of around 20-25k. I think with a win over SC State and decent play against Michigan, our game vs Maryland could actually get back up into the 38-42k range. Now if the team barely eeks by SC State, and gets blown out at Michigan, expect attendance to stay down a little longer. With no local teams on the schedule, and only one P5 (Maryland), I'm not expecting stellar attendance next season.

 

[Poolside Knight]

I think we fans that are up on the team and knowledgeable about the coaching/style/roster moves will go to the game. That said, the vast majority of fans regardless of coach have just spent a whole season watching a pathetic 0-12 team get blown out in half of their games. With that being fresh on their minds, regardless of coach, they won't want to show up (did you see the attendance the last 3 home games? Yes I know Thurs night rain vs ECU and Thanksgiving vs USF was a factor). Obviously it's a new season, but many "fair-weather fans" have been turned away, and until this 13 game losing streak is over, none of them will show up. Our first home game next yr is against SC State (FCS). That doesn't generate any excitement from the general fan base, to turn out to see an FCS team (many fans still having nightmares about Furman). That said, I'd expect an announced attendance of 30-35k, with actual butts in seats of around 20-25k. I think with a win over SC State and decent play against Michigan, our game vs Maryland could actually get back up into the 38-42k range. Now if the team barely eeks by SC State, and gets blown out at Michigan, expect attendance to stay down a little longer. With no local teams on the schedule, and only one P5 (Maryland), I'm not expecting stellar attendance next season.

Your not giving the UCF fanbase enough credit Once...I'm not saying UCF will sell out all season but since BHNS has opened the first 2 Home Games are usually always around 40k if it's a Saturday 6pm or later kickoff where a full tailgate is in the mix. With a new coach to be marketed by Danny White I definitely see a very nice crowd opening day

The first couple games will draw well then attendance will drop if it's a rough transition season

 

[Once a Knight...]

Your not giving the UCF fanbase enough credit Once...I'm not saying UCF will sell out all season but since BHNS has opened the first 2 Home Games are usually always around 40k if it's a Saturday 6pm or later kickoff where a full tailgate is in the mix. With a new coach to be marketed by Danny White I definitely see a very nice crowd opening day

The first couple games will draw well then attendance will drop if it's a rough transition season

No, I'm giving this message board and others like us tons of credit, but you're right, not giving that much credit. Every season since BHNS has opened we've always had Conference Championship on the radar, or at least a winning season and making a bowl/beating our rivals. There has only been 2 losing seasons at BHNS before 2015, and both of those seasons we won 4 games or more. This is a new situation, a season opener at BHNS following an 0-12 season (13 game losing streak), and no effort on the field. Do I know we will beat SC State, yes. Does the new coach and staff generate excitement, yes. But come the end of Aug, it will be a team who hasn't won a game since 2014 (about 20 calendar months). Curb the expectations. Now if it were FIU (insert other in-state team), or a P5 coming in week 1, then I could see the attendance spike a bit. Now if Frost is able to get the team turned around (and by turned around I mean 6-7 wins in his first season), then I'd expect the avg attendance to get back in the 34-36k range for the season avg. Now if we blow-out SC State and upset Michigan at the big house, then the sellouts and consistent 40k+ attendance will be back. Heck even 3-1 with a loss to Michigan would get the fans back going in the the conf schedule.

 

[Knight_Classes_begin_7pm]

I know it is too soon for this, but... Is it a guaranteed sell out?

I feel like it has too be: new coach, new offense, etc. In essence this is a completely new product on the field other the the players.

If this game doesn't sell out then marketing

I think it's a good question. Know the knights past...I'm going with 40K

 

[Once a Knight...]

Here is the home-opener attendance at BHNS...

2015 FIU (39k)
2014 Bethune-Cookman (44k)
2013 Akron (35k, Thurs.)
2012 FIU (40k)
2011 Charleston Southern (39k)
2010 South Dakota (34k)
2009 Samford (34k)
2008 SC State (42k)
2007 Texas (45k)

Generally the FCS teams not located in Florida seem to draw about 34k. The only exception was 2008, ironically vs SC State, which drew 42k. A game which followed our first C-USA Championship, a 10-4 season, with wins over NC State, a close loss to Texas, and a close loss to Miss St in the Liberty Bowl. Needless to say there was tons of positive momentum heading into the opening game of 2008. 2011 vs Charleston Southern seems to have the same spike (39k) as a result of the best season ever (at the time) the yr before. FIU seems to be right at the 40k mark because of being an in-state FBS opponent (lots of UCF students/family and friends are from south Florida). Bethune-Cookman is close, and largely a draw due to their band (I was at that game mostly to watch the band also). Plus Bethune-Cookman has a good traveling fan base (only an hour away for them). I think the 34k attendance vs South Dakota, or Samford is the most we should expect at the 2016 home opener following a horrendous 0-12 2015.

 

[Stormthecourt?]

Here is the home-opener attendance at BHNS...

2015 FIU (39k)
2014 Bethune-Cookman (44k)
2013 Akron (35k, Thurs.)
2012 FIU (40k)
2011 Charleston Southern (39k)
2010 South Dakota (34k)
2009 Samford (34k)
2008 SC State (42k)
2007 Texas (45k)

Generally the FCS teams not located in Florida seem to draw about 34k. The only exception was 2008, ironically vs SC State, which drew 42k. A game which followed our first C-USA Championship, a 10-4 season, with wins over NC State, a close loss to Texas, and a close loss to Miss St in the Liberty Bowl. Needless to say there was tons of positive momentum heading into the opening game of 2008. 2011 vs Charleston Southern seems to have the same spike (39k) as a result of the best season ever (at the time) the yr before. FIU seems to be right at the 40k mark because of being an in-state FBS opponent (lots of UCF students/family and friends are from south Florida). Bethune-Cookman is close, and largely a draw due to their band (I was at that game mostly to watch the band also). Plus Bethune-Cookman has a good traveling fan base (only an hour away for them). I think the 34k attendance vs South Dakota, or Samford is the most we should expect at the 2016 home opener following a horrendous 0-12 2015.

All those numbers are nice but next year is totally different. GOL is gone. I might drive 2 hours just to see the new uniforms in person. We're not going to be good next year but people will be excited for the new offense. There will be buzz that will get people to the games.

 

[Yung Knightt]

Barring its not a noon game or on a weekday it should be sold out. This is the most excited the fanbase has been since after the Fiesta Bowl and the opening of the stadium.

Even starting 0-2 we nearly sold out the home opener in 2014

 

[Poolside Knight]

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/spor...os-ucf-football-tickets-scott-frost-post.html

 

[SPTKnight]

The spring game will tell a lot about how well the hype is holding up after we have passed the honeymoon stage of this hire.

I still think that there is no excuse for a crowd less than 40,000 even if it is a Thursday...we as fans and the marketing department would have failed with advertising to our city and co-workers/friends in the area who do not have a hometown team... Yet.

 

[22knights_era]

Is SC State the season opener 100%? Can't find that anywhere. Would make sense because I can't see opening the season against FIU two years in a row, but I couldn't find it for sure anywhere. be my first game ever and first game as a student.

 

[Poolside Knight]

Is SC State the season opener 100%? Can't find that anywhere. Would make sense because I can't see opening the season against FIU two years in a row, but I couldn't find it for sure anywhere. be my first game ever and first game as a student.

it is for now. There could be some schedule changes in the next few months

 

[emrober5]

35K

and a loss.

 

[hemightbejeremy]

Probably would put it at 40k for a Saturday night game. Saturday at noon probably can subtract a few thousand.

 

[Once a Knight...]

All those numbers are nice but next year is totally different. GOL is gone. I might drive 2 hours just to see the new uniforms in person. We're not going to be good next year but people will be excited for the new offense. There will be buzz that will get people to the games.

I certainly hope so. I know I'm excited. Hell I'm thinking about even going to the spring game to see the new offense in action.

 

[bqknight]

Depends on a few things - one of them being if Orlando City is playing a game that day - and how big that game is.

I think it should see out though. Between Students and the hype it should be at least near 45K.

 

[UCFBS]

And if we are under 0.500 after 10 games?