Analyzing 2022 Fall roster by position

[PhDee]

I analyzed each position heading into Fall 2022 compared to 2021. I do this by 1) starters and 2) depth. Discuss.

Overall: Offense: better, Defense: slightly better
We should have no problem imposing our will on offense. I expect to average 35-50 points/game. This could be one of the best, all-around, offensive groups we've ever had. On the defensive end, our weakness is the D-line and linebacker group and our strength is our secondary. I only see our defense as slightly improving because of our return of the entire secondary (and we run 5 DBs), otherwise, I would have said unchanged or slightly regress.

I expect UCF to implement a run-first style offense because of its huge depth at RB and to keep its defense rested. I expect opponents to adopt a run-first and short-yardage passing game combined with a long-yardage passing game. The short-yardage plays will take advantage of our thin Dline and Linebacker crew while the deep throw plays will take advantage of our likely defensive strategy of keeping our secondary close to the line. We should be afraid of teams with very mobile QBs and teams with good run defense.

Overall, our floor should be 9-10 wins with a conference championship game appearance, partly because we luckily get our three hardest opponents at home; Louisville, SMU, and Cincinnati. The Louisville game is pivotal because of how early in the season it is (2nd game). The outcome of this game will set the tone for the rest of the season. If we handle Louisville, I see us going undefeated, if we lose, I wouldn't be surprised with other home losses. The ceiling is going undefeated with an NY6 bowl appearance.

QB: Starter: better, Depth: better
With Mikey Keene having a year under his belt, he comes back a lot better in the fall relative to last year when he was thrown into the fire. With the addition of JRP and Castellanos, the competition created within this group should push them all to be the best they can be.

RB: Starters: better, Depth: better
Bowser will be better after learning Gus's playstyle (assuming he stays healthy). With Johnny Richardson constantly improving, Mark AR becoming healthier, and RJ Harvey progressing on rehab, the RB group should be solid and better this fall. Don't be surprised if another RB leaves; there's too much talent sitting around.

WR: Starters: slightly better, Depth: better
With J Flash injured most of last season, we return everyone at the receiver position (except Brandon Johnson) in addition to adding Auburn's best wideout, Kobe Hudson. Overall, if Okeefe takes the next step, Kobe Hudson takes the next step, and Jayon Griffin, Jordan Johnson, Dionte Marks, or Amari Johnson step into that 3rd wideout role, this group should be solid. There's a lot of NFL potential at WR.

TE: Starters: better, Depth: better
We have struggled at TE in recent years, but with the emergence of Alec Hoeller this past season (who is coming back in the fall) and the addition of a proven starter in Kemore Gamble (UF's number one TE last year), this squad should be solid.

OL: Starters: slightly better, Depth: unchanged
We return three starters from last year and add two proven staters in Grable (from Jacksonville State) and Swoboda (from Virginia). Backups are the same as last year. This group should slightly improve due to the returning three starters but may fall back a little due to the loss of Schneider and Tatum. Overall though, we should see a better O Line.

DE: Starters: regress, Depth unchanged
Losing Big Kat is a huge loss. With what seems like uncertainty in Morris-Brash and the new addition of KD McDaniels, there is uncertainty at DE. If TMB takes a big leap this offseason and KD can perform at a high level, this position group could be just as good as last year, but at the moment, that's unclear. Depth is supported by Celsicar, Woodson, and some hungry young players.

DT: Starters: better, Depth slightly regress
Starters should be better given Barber and Hester likely improve this offseason and are hopefully healthy. With the loss of Goode and Kalia Davis heading to the NFL, we lose a lot of experience at depth. The addition of Hunter adds tremendous upside though. In addition to seeing him out there, I'm looking forward to some young guys getting playing time, such as Alexander and Choute.

LB: Starters: regress, Depth: regress
Linebackers take the biggest hit this offseason with the departure of Bethune and Joyce. The additions of Terrence Lewis, Kris Moll (from UAB), and Jason Johnson (from Eastern Illinois) add much-needed talent and experience. Terrence Lewis will provide tremendous upside when he becomes fully healthy and gets on-field experience. Moll adds the experience they need (played in every game over 4 years until being injured last year, was 1st team CUSA twice). Johnson started every game his last 2 seasons at EIU (was an all-american twice). But given these players are new and Lewis and Moll are coming off injuries, there is the most uncertaintiy at LB. Mosier has an opportunity to make a significant impact if he steps up this offseason. UCF is making a late push for transfer prospect, Branden Jennings, who played for one year at Maryland with Terrence Lewis.

DB: Starters: better, Depth: better
Having all defensive backs returning this fall and the addition of 3 solid freshmen and Koby Perry makes the DB starters better and adds better depth. With the emergence of Francois and Jarvis Ware making a good recovery, this unit should be solid.

Kicking Punting: No idea
We need a big improvement for our kicking crew come fall.

 

[tjb74]

I agree with your floor and ceiling predictions. This team is talented plus has good depth at key positions and the 2022 class isn’t even on campus yet. I really like the fact that nobody is talking about us, that should provide an edge to the team.

 

[Oldest Man]

I analyzed each position heading into Fall 2022 compared to 2021. I do this by 1) starters and 2) depth. Discuss.

Overall: Offense: better, Defense: slightly better
We should have no problem imposing our will on offense. I expect to average 35-50 points/game. This could be one of the best, all-around, offensive groups we've ever had. On the defensive end, our weakness is the D-line and linebacker group and our strength is our secondary.

I expect UCF to implement a run-first style offense because of its huge depth at RB and to keep its defense rested. I expect opponents to adopt a run-first and short-yardage passing game combined with a long-yardage passing game. The short-yardage plays will take advantage of our thin Dline and Linebacker crew while the deep throw plays will take advantage of our likely defensive strategy of keeping our secondary close to the line. We should be afraid of teams with very mobile QBs and teams with a good run defense.

Overall, our floor should be 10 wins with a conference championship game appearance and the ceiling is undefeated with an NY6 bowl appearance.

QB: Starter: better, Depth: better
With Mikey Keene having a year under his belt, he comes back a lot better in the fall relative to last year when he was thrown into the fire. With the addition of JRP and Castellanos, the competition created within this group should push them all to be the best they can be.

RB: Starters: better, Depth: better
Bowser will be better after learning Gus's playstyle (assuming he stays healthy). With Johnny Richardson constantly improving, Mark AR becoming healthier, and RJ Harvey progressing on rehab, the RB group should be solid and better this fall. Don't be surprised if another RB leaves; there's too much talent sitting around.

WR: Starters: slightly better, Depth: better
With J Flash injured most of last season, we return everyone at the receiver position (except Brandon Johnson) in addition to adding Auburn's best wideout. Overall, if Okeefe takes the next step, Kobe Hudson takes the next step, and Jayon Griffin, Jordan Johnson, Dionte Marks, or Amari Johnson step into that 3rd wideout role, this group should be solid. There's a lot of NFL potential at WR.

TE: Starters: better, Depth: better
We have struggled at TE in recent years, but with the emergence of Alec Hoeller this past season (who is coming back in the fall) and the addition of a proven starter in Kemore Gamble, this squad should be solid.

OL: Starters: better, Depth: unchanged
We return three starters from last year and add two proven staters in Grable and Swoboda. Backups are the same as last year. This group should slightly improve due to the returning three starters but will fall back a little due to the loss of Schneider and Tatum. Overall though, we should see a better O Line.

DE: Starters: regress, Depth unchanged
Losing Big Kat is a huge loss. With what seems like uncertainty in Morris-Brash and the new addition of KD McDaniels, there is uncertainty at DE. If TMB takes a big leap this offseason and KD can perform at a high level, this position group could be just as good as last year, but at the moment, that's unclear. Depth is supported by Celsicar, Woodson, and some hungry young players.

DT: Starters: better, Depth slightly regress
Starters should be better given Barber and Hester likely improve this offseason and are hopefully healthy. With the loss of Goode and Kalia Davis heading to the NFL, we lose a lot of experience at depth. The addition of Hunter adds tremendous upside though. In addition to seeing him out there, I'm looking forward to some young guys getting playing time, such as Alexander and Choute.

LB: Starters: regress, Depth: regress
Linebackers take the biggest hit this offseason with the departure of Bethune and Joyce. The additions of Terrence Lewis and Kris Moll (from UAB) add much-needed talent and depth respectively. Terrence Lewis will provide tremendous upside when he becomes fully healthy and gets on-field experience. Moll adds the experience they need (played in every game over 4 years until being injured last year). But given these players are new and are both coming off injuries, there is the most uncertaintiy at LB. Mosier has an opportunity to make a significant impact if he steps up this offseason.

DB: Starters: better, Depth: better
Having all defensive backs returning this fall and the addition of 3 solid freshmen and Koby Perry makes the DB starters better and adds better depth. With the emergence of Francois and Jarvis Ware making a good recovery, this unit should be solid.

Kicking Punting: No idea
We need a big improvement for our kicking crew come fall.

There are 3 key areas that need to come into focus by Sept 1. QB, LB and DE. I agree our O should be dynamic and I think the right QB will make it one of the top offenses in CFB. On D, replacing Bethune has to be job 1 and it looks like we're making a late push to shore up the LB position by adding Moll, Johnson, and maybe Branden Jennings to our previous signing of Lewis. All are excellent athletes so whoever can assimilate and add value the quickest will probably start game 1 opposite JJB. AT DE, we really need TMB to re-emerge but there's been no word (that I'm aware of) on his status. Fingers crossed on TMB (not a good place to be going into the season) but we don't seem to be pursuing any DE in the portal so that probably gives us a hint. And the emergence of Woodson opposite Celiscar will help, but we need 4 solid DE's and right now that's still in question. BTW, the starting K and P's names probably won't change and, I agree, it's time they both improve. Good analysis everywhere else.

 

[PhDee]

There are 3 key areas that need to come into focus by Sept 1. QB, LB and DE. I agree our O should be dynamic and I think the right QB will make it one of the top offenses in CFB. On D, replacing Bethune has to be job 1 and it looks like we're making a late push to shore up the LB position by adding Moll, Johnson, and maybe Branden Jennings to our previous signing of Lewis. All are excellent athletes so whoever can assimilate and add value the quickest will probably start game 1 opposite JJB. AT DE, we really need TMB to re-emerge but there's been no word (that I'm aware of) on his status. Fingers crossed on TMB (not a good place to be going into the season) but we don't seem to be pursuing any DE in the portal so that probably gives us a hint. And the emergence of Woodson opposite Celiscar will help, but we need 4 solid DE's and right now that's still in question. BTW, the starting K and P's names probably won't change and, I agree, it's time they both improve. Good analysis everywhere else.

Who's the Johnson you are referring to for LB?

 

[PhDee]

There are 3 key areas that need to come into focus by Sept 1. QB, LB and DE. I agree our O should be dynamic and I think the right QB will make it one of the top offenses in CFB. On D, replacing Bethune has to be job 1 and it looks like we're making a late push to shore up the LB position by adding Moll, Johnson, and maybe Branden Jennings to our previous signing of Lewis. All are excellent athletes so whoever can assimilate and add value the quickest will probably start game 1 opposite JJB. AT DE, we really need TMB to re-emerge but there's been no word (that I'm aware of) on his status. Fingers crossed on TMB (not a good place to be going into the season) but we don't seem to be pursuing any DE in the portal so that probably gives us a hint. And the emergence of Woodson opposite Celiscar will help, but we need 4 solid DE's and right now that's still in question. BTW, the starting K and P's names probably won't change and, I agree, it's time they both improve. Good analysis everywhere else.

Jason Johnson, nvm

 

[U C to the F]

I analyzed each position heading into Fall 2022 compared to 2021. I do this by 1) starters and 2) depth. Discuss.

Overall: Offense: better, Defense: slightly better
We should have no problem imposing our will on offense. I expect to average 35-50 points/game. This could be one of the best, all-around, offensive groups we've ever had. On the defensive end, our weakness is the D-line and linebacker group and our strength is our secondary. I only see our defense as slightly improving because of our return of the entire secondary (and we run 5 DBs), otherwise, I would have said unchanged or slightly regress.

I expect UCF to implement a run-first style offense because of its huge depth at RB and to keep its defense rested. I expect opponents to adopt a run-first and short-yardage passing game combined with a long-yardage passing game. The short-yardage plays will take advantage of our thin Dline and Linebacker crew while the deep throw plays will take advantage of our likely defensive strategy of keeping our secondary close to the line. We should be afraid of teams with very mobile QBs and teams with a good run defense.

Overall, our floor should be 9-10 wins with a conference championship game appearance, only because we luckily get our three hardest opponents at home; Louisville, SMU, and Cincinnati. The Louisville game is pivotal because of how early in the season it is (2nd game). The outcome of this game will set the tone for the rest of the season. If we handle Louisville, I see us going undefeated, if we lose, I wouldn't be surprised with other home losses. The ceiling is going undefeated with an NY6 bowl appearance.

QB: Starter: better, Depth: better
With Mikey Keene having a year under his belt, he comes back a lot better in the fall relative to last year when he was thrown into the fire. With the addition of JRP and Castellanos, the competition created within this group should push them all to be the best they can be.

RB: Starters: better, Depth: better
Bowser will be better after learning Gus's playstyle (assuming he stays healthy). With Johnny Richardson constantly improving, Mark AR becoming healthier, and RJ Harvey progressing on rehab, the RB group should be solid and better this fall. Don't be surprised if another RB leaves; there's too much talent sitting around.

WR: Starters: slightly better, Depth: better
With J Flash injured most of last season, we return everyone at the receiver position (except Brandon Johnson) in addition to adding Auburn's best wideout, Kobe Hudson. Overall, if Okeefe takes the next step, Kobe Hudson takes the next step, and Jayon Griffin, Jordan Johnson, Dionte Marks, or Amari Johnson step into that 3rd wideout role, this group should be solid. There's a lot of NFL potential at WR.

TE: Starters: better, Depth: better
We have struggled at TE in recent years, but with the emergence of Alec Hoeller this past season (who is coming back in the fall) and the addition of a proven starter in Kemore Gamble (UF's number one TE last year), this squad should be solid.

OL: Starters: slightly better, Depth: unchanged
We return three starters from last year and add two proven staters in Grable (from Jacksonville State) and Swoboda (from Virginia). Backups are the same as last year. This group should slightly improve due to the returning three starters but will fall back a little due to the loss of Schneider and Tatum. Overall though, we should see a better O Line.

DE: Starters: regress, Depth unchanged
Losing Big Kat is a huge loss. With what seems like uncertainty in Morris-Brash and the new addition of KD McDaniels, there is uncertainty at DE. If TMB takes a big leap this offseason and KD can perform at a high level, this position group could be just as good as last year, but at the moment, that's unclear. Depth is supported by Celsicar, Woodson, and some hungry young players.

DT: Starters: better, Depth slightly regress
Starters should be better given Barber and Hester likely improve this offseason and are hopefully healthy. With the loss of Goode and Kalia Davis heading to the NFL, we lose a lot of experience at depth. The addition of Hunter adds tremendous upside though. In addition to seeing him out there, I'm looking forward to some young guys getting playing time, such as Alexander and Choute.

LB: Starters: regress, Depth: regress
Linebackers take the biggest hit this offseason with the departure of Bethune and Joyce. The additions of Terrence Lewis and Kris Moll (from UAB) add much-needed talent and experience, respectively. Terrence Lewis will provide tremendous upside when he becomes fully healthy and gets on-field experience. Moll adds the experience they need (played in every game over 4 years until being injured last year). But given these players are new and are both coming off injuries, there is the most uncertaintiy at LB. Mosier has an opportunity to make a significant impact if he steps up this offseason.

DB: Starters: better, Depth: better
Having all defensive backs returning this fall and the addition of 3 solid freshmen and Koby Perry makes the DB starters better and adds better depth. With the emergence of Francois and Jarvis Ware making a good recovery, this unit should be solid.

Kicking Punting: No idea
We need a big improvement for our kicking crew come fall.

I’m on board with nearly everything and agree with almost everything. The one thing I’m interested in is that you have a 35-50 point per game prediction. I think that’s the potential with the skill we have. But who do you think the QB is going to be that can produce that many points? In my opinion, if it’s Mikey Keene, 30-35 points is the ceiling, with an average of about 27. He’s a game manager at best, even if he improves a lot, so I don’t see a lot of points being scored running the ball the whole game. Interested in your thought process?

 

[tjb74]

Who's the Johnson you are referring to for LB?

He was talking about this dude. Best player on a bad team at Eastern Illinois.

 

[PhDee]

I’m on board with nearly everything and agree with almost everything. The one thing I’m interested in is that you have a 35-50 point per game prediction. I think that’s the potential with the skill we have. But who do you think the QB is going to be that can produce that many points? In my opinion, if it’s Mikey Keene, 30-35 points is the ceiling, with an average of about 27. He’s a game manager at best, even if he improves a lot, so I don’t see a lot of points being scored running the ball the whole game. Interested in your thought process?

We averaged 28.1 points/game when Keene started. I expect us to score 1-3 more touchdowns per game (35-49 points per game) because our team will have improved, Keene will greatly improve, and we have a more favorable schedule.

I confidently believe that Keene was better than DG and KZ in their freshman years and will greatly improve for a few reasons. I believe he got thrown into a really tough situation and prevailed.

1) He understands Gus's playbook a lot better. He has had his whole first season and now the first offseason to learn and adjust to the playbook. He will be a lot more comfortable with the plays. Remember DG was recruited by Huepel who was going into his 2nd year at UCF. DG had an established playbook for him. DG enrolled early in January. DG had heisman finalist and friend, KZ, as a mentor. The offense was designed for DG. Gus had no say on recruiting Keene. Gus made the playbook around DG. Keene had no mentor as DG had one foot in and one foot out the door (in socks). Keene enrolled in July. Keene has learned and grown a tremendous amount in the past year.

2) Keene had no expectation of actually playing quality minutes, given DG's stronghold on the position. Keene was thrown into the fire halfway through the season and actually, performed better than DG and KZ's first year, in many ways. I breakdown some basic stats below. I bold stats where Keene was similar or better compared to how DG and KZ performed at UCF.

Mikey Keene
2021 63.6% completion rate, TD/completion: .098, TD/attempt: .073, INT/pass: .034, INT/attempt: .025, Sacks/attempt: .073

DG
2021 68.6% completion rate, TD/completion: .128 , TD/attempt: .088, INT/pass: .042, INT/attempt: .029, Sacks/attempt: .058
2020 60% completion rate. TD/completion: .129 , TD/attempt: .077, INT/pass: .016, INT/attempt: .009, Sacks/attempt: .053
2019 59.3% completion rate. TD/completion: .122, TD/attempt: .072, INT/pass: .029, INT/attempt: .017, Sacks/attempt: .055

KZ
2018 59.2% completion rate. TD/completion: .146, TD/attempt: .086, INT/pass: .035, INT/attempt: .02, Sacks/attempt: .031
2017 67.1% completion rate. TD/completion: .139, TD/attempt: .093, INT/pass: .033, INT/attempt: .022, Sacks/attempt: .027
2016 57.7% completion rate. TD/completion: .051, TD/attempt: .029, INT/pass: .036, INT/attempt: .02, Sacks/attempt: .074

1. The first thing to notice is his completion percentage was decent and better than both DG and KZ in their first years. As well as DG's second.
2. Next, his interception rates were higher than DG but in line with what KZ did overall in his 3 years.
3. Keene's sack ratio is higher than DG's was, but the same as KZ's freshman year.
4. Keene's Touchdown per pass attempt is right in line with DG's freshman and sophomore year, and way above KZ's freshman year.
5. Where Keene is clearly behind DG is his Touchdown/completion. Clearly, fewer of Keene's completions turn into touchdowns. While he did way better than KZ's freshman year, he did less than DG's 3 years and KZ's other 2 years. My argument for this is simple. KZ and DG clearly had a more talented and established receiving corp. For Keene, J Flash was injured and it was Brandon Johnson's and Ryan O'Keefe's first year ever starting. Keene had a very unestablished and unproven group of receivers. DG had: J Flash, Gabe Davis, AK, Marlon Williams, Tre Nixon, Jacob Harris, and Otis Anderson. KZ had: Gabe Davis, AK, Dredrick Snelson, Mike Coulbiale, Otis, Trequan Smith, and Jordan Akins. Now my argument could imply reverse causality. That their receivers were only good because the QB was good. While I can't prove that Keene's group was not as good for that reason, it is a fact that DG and KZ had an established receiving corps. DG and KZ each had 3 receivers who were drafted to the NFL. This year, Keene will have several players who have now established themselves as starters: O'keefe, Kobe Hudson, Alec Hoeller, Kemore Gamble. One more receiver will break through as Jordan Johnson, Amari, Marks, and Griffin have all made big strides in the past year.

3) Keene played decently against Cincinnati, SMU, and UF. Even versus Cinci, SMU, and UF, our hardest competition, his stats were: 57.1% completion rate. TD/completion: .062, TD/attempt: .035, INT/pass: .041, INT/attempt: .023, Sacks/attempt: .17. These are comparable to KZ's freshman year (with the exception of sacks). A good sign of future success in my opinion is being able to have success early on and being able to withstand the fire. I think he did a great job at handling our hardest teams, all on the road, (and Cinci #4 in the nation!) as well as any true freshman with a first-time coach and new receivers could. Am I wrong?

My final takeaway is: Keene is 1) really good at not throwing interceptions, 2) Needs to work on taking fewer sacks 3) Needs a more established receiving corp as described by his comparable TD/attempt stats, but lower TD/completion stats.

Overall though, I confidently believe that he was better than DG and KZ in their freshman years.

We will average 7 more points due to Mikey improving his TD/completion percentage to (.12-.13) by having established receivers and improving his completion percentage by a couple of points. Mathematically we increase 7 points just based on this increase alone.

We will then increase 0-14 more points through 1) more interceptions due to all our DB's coming back 2) more scoring in the Red Zone due to better special teams, and 3) a stable of improved RB's. We will control the time of possession and run it down our opponent's throats. This will open up the passing game for Keene. We play a schedule that is a lot more favorable. We will finally abolish the hurry-up offense we started during Scott Frost and deteriorated under Huepel and pick the smart play and perform it efficiently. These factors will lead to 0-14 more points on average.

 

[Knight_Light]

I analyzed each position heading into Fall 2022 compared to 2021. I do this by 1) starters and 2) depth. Discuss.

Overall: Offense: better, Defense: slightly better
We should have no problem imposing our will on offense. I expect to average 35-50 points/game. This could be one of the best, all-around, offensive groups we've ever had. On the defensive end, our weakness is the D-line and linebacker group and our strength is our secondary. I only see our defense as slightly improving because of our return of the entire secondary (and we run 5 DBs), otherwise, I would have said unchanged or slightly regress.

I expect UCF to implement a run-first style offense because of its huge depth at RB and to keep its defense rested. I expect opponents to adopt a run-first and short-yardage passing game combined with a long-yardage passing game. The short-yardage plays will take advantage of our thin Dline and Linebacker crew while the deep throw plays will take advantage of our likely defensive strategy of keeping our secondary close to the line. We should be afraid of teams with very mobile QBs and teams with good run defense.

Overall, our floor should be 9-10 wins with a conference championship game appearance, partly because we luckily get our three hardest opponents at home; Louisville, SMU, and Cincinnati. The Louisville game is pivotal because of how early in the season it is (2nd game). The outcome of this game will set the tone for the rest of the season. If we handle Louisville, I see us going undefeated, if we lose, I wouldn't be surprised with other home losses. The ceiling is going undefeated with an NY6 bowl appearance.

QB: Starter: better, Depth: better
With Mikey Keene having a year under his belt, he comes back a lot better in the fall relative to last year when he was thrown into the fire. With the addition of JRP and Castellanos, the competition created within this group should push them all to be the best they can be.

RB: Starters: better, Depth: better
Bowser will be better after learning Gus's playstyle (assuming he stays healthy). With Johnny Richardson constantly improving, Mark AR becoming healthier, and RJ Harvey progressing on rehab, the RB group should be solid and better this fall. Don't be surprised if another RB leaves; there's too much talent sitting around.

WR: Starters: slightly better, Depth: better
With J Flash injured most of last season, we return everyone at the receiver position (except Brandon Johnson) in addition to adding Auburn's best wideout, Kobe Hudson. Overall, if Okeefe takes the next step, Kobe Hudson takes the next step, and Jayon Griffin, Jordan Johnson, Dionte Marks, or Amari Johnson step into that 3rd wideout role, this group should be solid. There's a lot of NFL potential at WR.

TE: Starters: better, Depth: better
We have struggled at TE in recent years, but with the emergence of Alec Hoeller this past season (who is coming back in the fall) and the addition of a proven starter in Kemore Gamble (UF's number one TE last year), this squad should be solid.

OL: Starters: slightly better, Depth: unchanged
We return three starters from last year and add two proven staters in Grable (from Jacksonville State) and Swoboda (from Virginia). Backups are the same as last year. This group should slightly improve due to the returning three starters but may fall back a little due to the loss of Schneider and Tatum. Overall though, we should see a better O Line.

DE: Starters: regress, Depth unchanged
Losing Big Kat is a huge loss. With what seems like uncertainty in Morris-Brash and the new addition of KD McDaniels, there is uncertainty at DE. If TMB takes a big leap this offseason and KD can perform at a high level, this position group could be just as good as last year, but at the moment, that's unclear. Depth is supported by Celsicar, Woodson, and some hungry young players.

DT: Starters: better, Depth slightly regress
Starters should be better given Barber and Hester likely improve this offseason and are hopefully healthy. With the loss of Goode and Kalia Davis heading to the NFL, we lose a lot of experience at depth. The addition of Hunter adds tremendous upside though. In addition to seeing him out there, I'm looking forward to some young guys getting playing time, such as Alexander and Choute.

LB: Starters: regress, Depth: regress
Linebackers take the biggest hit this offseason with the departure of Bethune and Joyce. The additions of Terrence Lewis, Kris Moll (from UAB), and Jason Johnson (from Eastern Illinois) add much-needed talent and experience. Terrence Lewis will provide tremendous upside when he becomes fully healthy and gets on-field experience. Moll adds the experience they need (played in every game over 4 years until being injured last year, was 1st team CUSA twice). Johnson started every game his last 2 seasons at EIU (was an all-american twice). But given these players are new and Lewis and Moll are coming off injuries, there is the most uncertaintiy at LB. Mosier has an opportunity to make a significant impact if he steps up this offseason. UCF is making a late push for transfer prospect, Branden Jennings, who played for one year at Maryland with Terrence Lewis.

DB: Starters: better, Depth: better
Having all defensive backs returning this fall and the addition of 3 solid freshmen and Koby Perry makes the DB starters better and adds better depth. With the emergence of Francois and Jarvis Ware making a good recovery, this unit should be solid.

Kicking Punting: No idea
We need a big improvement for our kicking crew come fall.

I agree that there are so many unknowns amd question marks in the Front 7...I have no idea how the D could be better.

Without a strong front 7...you won't be able to stop the run or get pressure on the QB and if that happens, it won't matter who is playing DB.

 

[AuburnLegacy_1]

I agree that there are so many unknowns amd question marks in the Front 7...I have no idea how the D could be better.

Without a strong front 7...you won't be able to stop the run or get pressure on the QB and if that happens, it won't matter who is playing DB.

I am with you. The DL is what made UCF formidable defensively last season. If you stop the run, you can earn the right to play the pass. Two players off last year's line are now in the NFL and another is at Michigan. Few Power 5's could sustain losses of that caliber.

This year's UCF team is a hodgepodge in the front seven. They showed in the spring they can neither stop, nor slow, a rushing attack. An SEC team such as Auburn (even with no quarterback or legitimate receivers), could run the football down UCF's throat. This would eventually open up throwing lanes due to secondary guys being stressed to take up slack in run support.

(I know it was a spring game designed to feature the offense. I know the defense was playing vanilla. I know the talent was spread thin among two teams. But... I also know if you have to stunt, blitz, and shift to stop the run, you are up sh*t's creek. A base defense should be able to stop or at least slow a running game.)

This 2022 UCF offense is too good to give the defensive coaches a pass. That side of the ball needs to be fixed through the transfer portal and in all camp. UCF needs to land an impact defensive tackle, edge rusher, and another linebacker and make all the prices fit.

I would hate to see this team do the miraculous and make the CFB only to get DRUG like Cincinnati did by uat on the biggest stage.

Right now, UCF is a team that could reach a New Year's Six bowl, not not a team that could win a New Year's Six game.

 

[PhDee]

I am with you. The DL is what made UCF formidable defensively last season. If you stop the run, you can earn the right to play the pass. Two players off last year's line are now in the NFL and another is at Michigan. Few Power 5's could sustain losses of that caliber.

This year's UCF team is a hodgepodge in the front seven. They showed in the spring they can neither stop, nor slow, a rushing attack. An SEC team such as Auburn (even with no quarterback or legitimate receivers), could run the football down UCF's throat. This would eventually open up throwing lanes due to secondary guys being stressed to take up slack in run support.

(I know it was a spring game designed to feature the offense. I know the defense was playing vanilla. I know the talent was spread thin among two teams. But... I also know if you have to stunt, blitz, and shift to stop the run, you are up sh*t's creek. A base defense should be able to stop or at least slow a running game.)

This 2022 UCF offense is too good to give the defensive coaches a pass. That side of the ball needs to be fixed through the transfer portal and in all camp. UCF needs to land an impact defensive tackle, edge rusher, and another linebacker and make all the prices fit.

I would hate to see this team do the miraculous and make the CFB only to get DRUG like Cincinnati did by uat on the biggest stage.

Right now, UCF is a team that could reach a New Year's Six bowl, not not a team that could win a New Year's Six game.

Completely agree with everything.

 

[Wings0fred]

We averaged 28.1 points/game when Keene started. I expect us to score 1-3 more touchdowns per game (35-49 points per game) because our team will have improved, Keene will greatly improve, and we have a more favorable schedule.

I confidently believe that Keene was better than DG and KZ in their freshman years and will greatly improve for a few reasons. I believe he got thrown into a really tough situation and prevailed.

1) He understands Gus's playbook a lot better. He has had his whole first season and now the first offseason to learn and adjust to the playbook. He will be a lot more comfortable with the plays. Remember DG was recruited by Huepel who was going into his 2nd year at UCF. DG had an established playbook for him. DG enrolled early in January. DG had heisman finalist and friend, KZ, as a mentor. The offense was designed for DG. Gus had no say on recruiting Keene. Gus made the playbook around DG. Keene had no mentor as DG had one foot in and one foot out the door (in socks). Keene enrolled in July. Keene has learned and grown a tremendous amount in the past year.

2) Keene had no expectation of actually playing quality minutes, given DG's stronghold on the position. Keene was thrown into the fire halfway through the season and actually, performed better than DG and KZ's first year, in many ways. I breakdown some basic stats below. I bold stats where Keene was similar or better compared to how DG and KZ performed at UCF.

Mikey Keene
2021 63.6% completion rate, TD/completion: .098, TD/attempt: .073, INT/pass: .034, INT/attempt: .025, Sacks/attempt: .073

DG
2021 68.6% completion rate, TD/completion: .128 , TD/attempt: .088, INT/pass: .042, INT/attempt: .029, Sacks/attempt: .058
2020 60% completion rate. TD/completion: .129 , TD/attempt: .077, INT/pass: .016, INT/attempt: .009, Sacks/attempt: .053
2019 59.3% completion rate. TD/completion: .122, TD/attempt: .072, INT/pass: .029, INT/attempt: .017, Sacks/attempt: .055

KZ
2018 59.2% completion rate. TD/completion: .146, TD/attempt: .086, INT/pass: .035, INT/attempt: .02, Sacks/attempt: .031
2017 67.1% completion rate. TD/completion: .139, TD/attempt: .093, INT/pass: .033, INT/attempt: .022, Sacks/attempt: .027
2016 57.7% completion rate. TD/completion: .051, TD/attempt: .029, INT/pass: .036, INT/attempt: .02, Sacks/attempt: .074

1. The first thing to notice is his completion percentage was decent and better than both DG and KZ in their first years. As well as DG's second.
2. Next, his interception rates were higher than DG but in line with what KZ did overall in his 3 years.
3. Keene's sack ratio is higher than DG's was, but the same as KZ's freshman year.
4. Keene's Touchdown per pass attempt is right in line with DG's freshman and sophomore year, and way above KZ's freshman year.
5. Where Keene is clearly behind DG is his Touchdown/completion. Clearly, fewer of Keene's completions turn into touchdowns. While he did way better than KZ's freshman year, he did less than DG's 3 years and KZ's other 2 years. My argument for this is simple. KZ and DG clearly had a more talented and established receiving corp. For Keene, J Flash was injured and it was Brandon Johnson's and Ryan O'Keefe's first year ever starting. Keene had a very unestablished and unproven group of receivers. DG had: J Flash, Gabe Davis, AK, Marlon Williams, Tre Nixon, Jacob Harris, and Otis Anderson. KZ had: Gabe Davis, AK, Dredrick Snelson, Mike Coulbiale, Otis, Trequan Smith, and Jordan Akins. Now my argument could imply reverse causality. That their receivers were only good because the QB was good. While I can't prove that Keene's group was not as good for that reason, it is a fact that DG and KZ had an established receiving corps. DG and KZ each had 3 receivers who were drafted to the NFL. This year, Keene will have several players who have now established themselves as starters: O'keefe, Kobe Hudson, Alec Hoeller, Kemore Gamble. One more receiver will break through as Jordan Johnson, Amari, Marks, and Griffin have all made big strides in the past year.

3) Keene played decently against Cincinnati, SMU, and UF. Even versus Cinci, SMU, and UF, our hardest competition, his stats were: 57.1% completion rate. TD/completion: .062, TD/attempt: .035, INT/pass: .041, INT/attempt: .023, Sacks/attempt: .17. These are comparable to KZ's freshman year (with the exception of sacks). A good sign of future success in my opinion is being able to have success early on and being able to withstand the fire. I think he did a great job at handling our hardest teams, all on the road, (and Cinci #4 in the nation!) as well as any true freshman with a first-time coach and new receivers could. Am I wrong?

My final takeaway is: Keene is 1) really good at not throwing interceptions, 2) Needs to work on taking fewer sacks 3) Needs a more established receiving corp as described by his comparable TD/attempt stats, but lower TD/completion stats.

Overall though, I confidently believe that he was better than DG and KZ in their freshman years.

We will average 7 more points due to Mikey improving his TD/completion percentage to (.12-.13) by having established receivers and improving his completion percentage by a couple of points. Mathematically we increase 7 points just based on this increase alone.

We will then increase 0-14 more points through 1) more interceptions due to all our DB's coming back 2) more scoring in the Red Zone due to better special teams, and 3) a stable of improved RB's. We will control the time of possession and run it down our opponent's throats. This will open up the passing game for Keene. We play a schedule that is a lot more favorable. We will finally abolish the hurry-up offense we started during Scott Frost and deteriorated under Huepel and pick the smart play and perform it efficiently. These factors will lead to 0-14 more points on average.

Keene was definitely put in a tough spot. To me, about the best thing he did was limit turnovers, especially later in the season.

I would also consider yards in your comparisons. I am expecting that DG has a significant advantage there on the basis that the throws were mostly downfield while Keene was mostly throwing short screens.

Also, I think our offense will be much better versus last year, but I expect a methodical clock-controlling offense (if for no other reason than to protect our defense), which means fifty points a game will be hard to do. We should be much more efficient, however, with the lower number of possessions we will have by shrinking the game.

 

[Oldest Man]

I’m on board with nearly everything and agree with almost everything. The one thing I’m interested in is that you have a 35-50 point per game prediction. I think that’s the potential with the skill we have. But who do you think the QB is going to be that can produce that many points? In my opinion, if it’s Mikey Keene, 30-35 points is the ceiling, with an average of about 27. He’s a game manager at best, even if he improves a lot, so I don’t see a lot of points being scored running the ball the whole game. Interested in your thought process?

You better believe this is what Gus and Chip are processing as they plan for this season. I see JRP starting and, with his dual threat, raising the bar on the points we can score. If he succeeds (as I expect he will), we'll get back to scoring 40+ regularly. The good news is that if he doesn't (or gets injured) we have a very capable QB waiting in the wings.

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

Anything above 44 point per game average is not sustainable. At our top we never averaged 49 per game. When we averaged 40 people said the offense scored too fast and put defense back on field. Imagine 50.

 

[Gwoz]

Seems like we are playing with stats to pump up Keene and down play other QBs. Keene rarely threw down field, and mostly threw short high percentage passes with little chance for interception. His offensive averages heavily relies on Temple/UConn game.

Vs. Cincinnati, the first 6 drives went for a total of 24 yards, the offense had a long td drive on 7th drive when the score was 35-0. I wouldn't consider that descent.

Just can't buy Keene freshman year was better than Gabriel freshman year. Gabriel was top 20 in NCAA, for yards, yards per catch, TDs, QB rating. If you swap Keene to 2019, and freshman Gabriel to 2021. Gabriel would still do better.

 

[Shark19]

Seems like we are playing with stats to pump up Keene and down play other QBs. Keene rarely threw down field, and mostly threw short high percentage passes with little chance for interception. His offensive averages heavily relies on Temple/UConn game.

Vs. Cincinnati, the first 6 drives went for a total of 24 yards, the offense had a long td drive on 7th drive when the score was 35-0. I wouldn't consider that descent.

Just can't buy Keene freshman year was better than Gabriel freshman year. Gabriel was top 20 in NCAA, for yards, yards per catch, TDs, QB rating. If you swap Keene to 2019, and freshman Gabriel to 2021. Gabriel would still do better.

Agreed, there are some pushes to revise history here. Remember, Mr Socko was the Walter Camp National player of the week after his second start tearing up Stanford. So there is no comparison between the two.

On the subject of stats that actually mean something, he was #9 in the AAC in yards per attempt, which included 4.4 vs usf, 5 vs SMU, 3.31 vs Memphis, 5.2 vs Cinn, and 5.5 vs ECU. We were fortunate to win the 3 we did (very fortunate to play against the 3rd string Memphis guy).

Gus managed Keene very well (best coaching he did) and Keene did a great job limiting turnovers. I am looking forward to the QB battle in the Summer and Keene has a decent shot

 

[mattropolis]

There is one position that drives the bus….QB. We go as that position goes,

 

[tjb74]

Well here is an interesting tidbit concerning LB depth. Anyone know what this injury was or how severe?

 

[PhDee]

View embedded media

Well here is an interesting tidbit concerning LB depth. Anyone know what this injury was or how severe?

No idea unfortunately. Would only add more depth issues, but maybe it's something minor (if that's even referring to him).

Anyone know when the next coaches/players press conference is?

 

[U C to the F]

View embedded media

Well here is an interesting tidbit concerning LB depth. Anyone know what this injury was or how severe?

KDM might be needed to actually play linebacker instead of the edge this year. This is crazy depth hit after depth hit for the LBs if it’s serious. I really hope this FCS transfer LB Johnson is ready to ball and is good. I haven’t heard anything on Terrence Lewis health, has anyone else? We need him healthy asap, and we need his former MD LB buddy to transfer asap also.

 

[PhDee]

KDM might be needed to actually play linebacker instead of the edge this year. This is crazy depth hit after depth hit for the LBs if it’s serious. I really hope this FCS transfer LB Johnson is ready to ball and is good. I haven’t heard anything on Terrence Lewis health, has anyone else? We need him healthy asap, and we need his former MD LB buddy to transfer asap also.

Terrence Lewis hasn't been determined yet. He went into Maryland and was diagnosed with a torn acl that he was playing with. Had surgery in spring of 2021 and sat out at Maryland. I think we are still rehabbing/getting him field ready. The last I recall is that the coaching this there's a low chance of him being game ready by game 1 but he could be ready later during the season.

The problem we are facing is that the transfer portal is pretty empty, not many good fits out there anymore. Additionally, players transfer because they want to play. It's hard to bring in 4 transfers at LB because that implies 3 are sitting. What 4th LB will want to come here? Suppose Branden comes, that's going to piss off the EIU and UAB guys.

 

[Shark19]

The problem we are facing is that the transfer portal is pretty empty, not many good fits out there anymore.

While not true for many positions, there is a lack of highly rated LBs. Out of the 500 top rated portal players of all positions, not a single one was a LB. That 500 in terms of transfer grades goes from .96 at the top to .86 for Mr. 500. For reference, our top transfers range from .88 to .90

Having said that, there are a lot of smaller lighter DEs and larger S types that possibly be used at LB one way or another.

 

[beelit47]

I think whatever Lbs we have we might as well blitz every down. I dont want inexperienced guys blowing coverage

 

[Knight_Light]

Playing against most "open/spread" AAC Offenses...UCF should use a 4-2-5 lineup on most snaps (they did that quite a bit last year).

Need 2 strong run stopping Safeties to help take away the run in that set up.

 

[BlakNGoldAllDay]

Playing against most "open/spread" AAC Offenses...UCF should use a 4-2-5 lineup on most snaps (they did that quite a bit last year).

Need 2 strong run stopping Safeties to help take away the run in that set up.

Front 6 need to stop run or it will be a long year.

 

[Shark19]

While not true for many positions, there is a lack of highly rated LBs. Out of the 500 top rated portal players of all positions, not a single one was a LB. That 500 in terms of transfer grades goes from .96 at the top to .86 for Mr. 500. For reference, our top transfers range from .88 to .90

Having said that, there are a lot of smaller lighter DEs and larger S types that possibly be used at LB one way or another.

New name on the portal....hopefully Gus can get him to pick up the phone

4 star 2021 from Tenn

"Plays physical, violent and fast. Sound with responsibilities. Moves well laterally. Good tackler with body control. Delivers big hit with low pad level moving downhill. Quick feet and ability to change direction in coverage. "

 

[PhDee]

New name on the portal....hopefully Gus can get him to pick up the phone

4 star 2021 from Tenn

"Plays physical, violent and fast. Sound with responsibilities. Moves well laterally. Good tackler with body control. Delivers big hit with low pad level moving downhill. Quick feet and ability to change direction in coverage. "

View embedded media

Would be a great addition, but I don't know if we have any connections to him, I could be wrong though.

I think a more likely option would be Timar. He had an offer from Auburn while Gus was there and was recruited by Travis Williams. Also is from Deland. Was teammates with Dionte Marks:

 

[SkiDog291]

You better believe this is what Gus and Chip are processing as they plan for this season. I see JRP starting and, with his dual threat, raising the bar on the points we can score. If he succeeds (as I expect he will), we'll get back to scoring 40+ regularly. The good news is that if he doesn't (or gets injured) we have a very capable QB waiting in the wings.

You could argue if the OL improves, and gives MK more time, his decision making will improve and potentially connect more. I feel he has the potential if given the opportunity. A strong OL drives everything.

 

[U C to the F]

You could argue if the OL improves, and gives MK more time, his decision making will improve and potentially connect more. I feel he has the potential if given the opportunity. A strong OL drives everything.

We’ve had a strong OL for years.

 

[Gwoz]

You could argue if the OL improves, and gives MK more time, his decision making will improve and potentially connect more. I feel he has the potential if given the opportunity. A strong OL drives everything.

Didn't seem as much of a problem against Boise State and Louisville. But I guess it was a problem with Keene taking snaps against USF steel curtain defense.

 

[Knight Strength]

I haven't considered our OL to be strong since 2019 when several of them were predicted to be the best in conference and then we watched Pitt, Cincy, and Tulsa defenses tear us apart.

 

[Knight_Light]

We’ve had a strong OL for years.

They've been good...(did great in 4th Q vs UF).

The ACL injury to OL Medley in the Spring Game that knocked out another new starter hurt...so thr OL will have another new face added this August in addition to the new transfers back in Jan.

Somewhat untested unit...coukd take several games to gel.

 

[tjb74]

They've been good...(did great in 4th Q vs UF).

The ACL injury to OL Medley in the Spring Game that knocked out another new starter hurt...so thr OL will have another new face added this August in addition to the new transfers back in Jan.

Somewhat untested unit...coukd take several games to gel.

I know we all like to play the marquee names but I really prefer having an “easier” opponent for Week 1. Just to get our feet under us and then it’s full throttle for week 2. I really like the way our schedule is set up this year.

 

[Knight_Light]

I know we all like to play the marquee names but I really prefer having an “easier” opponent for Week 1. Just to get our feet under us and then it’s full throttle for week 2. I really like the way our schedule is set up this year.

Easy season home openers are always preferred for the reason you stated, PLUS, the games draw well since it's the first live home football game on 9 plus months.

 

[Wings0fred]

Didn't seem as much of a problem against Boise State and Louisville. But I guess it was a problem with Keene taking snaps against USF steel curtain defense.

Don’t forget Bowser playing vs not playing was a huge impact.

The usf performance was rough with or without him, though…

 

[Knight_Light]

Don’t forget Bowser playing vs not playing was a huge impact.

The usf performance was rough with or without him, though…

Healthy Bowser was the difference in multiple games last year...just as Bowser being out or playing injured was the difference in other games.

So went Boswer...so went UCF last year.

With a healthy MAR, Harvey and even with McDonald...there are backups ready to go this year that will play a big role.

 

[Wings0fred]

Healthy Bowser was the difference in multiple games last year...just as Bowser being out or playing injured was the difference in other games.

So went Boswer...so went UCF last year.

With a healthy MAR, Harvey and even with McDonald...there are backups ready to go this year that will play a big role.

For sure, I expect their job is to take some of the load off of Bowser so we can have him healthy as much as possibile. There will definitely be a drop off when he’s not being handed the ball, though.

 

[tjb74]

Terrence Lewis hasn't been determined yet. He went into Maryland and was diagnosed with a torn acl that he was playing with. Had surgery in spring of 2021 and sat out at Maryland. I think we are still rehabbing/getting him field ready. The last I recall is that the coaching this there's a low chance of him being game ready by game 1 but he could be ready later during the season.

The problem we are facing is that the transfer portal is pretty empty, not many good fits out there anymore. Additionally, players transfer because they want to play. It's hard to bring in 4 transfers at LB because that implies 3 are sitting. What 4th LB will want to come here? Suppose Branden comes, that's going to piss off the EIU and UAB guys.

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Judging by the practice photos in his IG, I am assuming Terrence Lewis is ready to go. Some of the other guys who had ACL injuries (Harvey and Ware) had big knee braces on during spring. I never saw one on Lewis, I bet they just held him back because of precaution.

 

[KnightVision82]

Always surprises between spring and fall 2-deep coming out of camp. We’ve got some good redshirt freshmen and freshmen stepping into 2-deep which will shake things up. I will be disappointed if this team doesn’t win 10 or 11 games in our last AAC campaign

 

[PhDee]

Always surprises between spring and fall 2-deep coming out of camp. We’ve got some good redshirt freshmen and freshmen stepping into 2-deep which will shake things up. I will be disappointed if this team doesn’t win 10 or 11 games in our last AAC campaign

We should win at least 10 games and SMU and Cinci are 50/50.